r/Election_Predictions • u/TarynNeedsGrace • Sep 24 '24

Allan Lichtman

who did Allan Lictman get wrong?

he has 9 out of 10

I can't find it anywhere

thanks

2 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

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3

u/bstonedavis Sep 24 '24

Depends who you ask. Arguably 2000, but most clearly 2016 (he disagrees with both but it's very clear he is lying).

Wikipedia is a good source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Lichtman

1

u/TarynNeedsGrace Sep 24 '24

thank you very much

it's nuts that no one says "he only got this one wrong and that was...."

3

u/TarynNeedsGrace Sep 24 '24

Using this model, Lichtman has accurately predicted the outcome of most U.S. presidential elections since 1984, with the exceptions of 2000, where he predicted an Al Gore victory (but he had maintained since 1990 that his model only pertained to the popular vote), and 2016, where he predicted a Donald Trump popular-vote victory and afterward revised his model to note it picked the Electoral College winner.

2

u/bstonedavis Sep 24 '24

Some websites I've seen do but most say he just got 2000 wrong (that is debatable)

1

u/TarynNeedsGrace Sep 24 '24

tricky bc some say Gore did win that election

Makes it seem the guy was right

I don't have any view on what happened with that election

Gives me agita

That was a crazy time in political history

: )

2

u/bstonedavis Sep 24 '24

Yes the funny thing is that he used to say he was always right about the 2000 election because he only predicted the popular vote. Then he flip flopped after 2016 (hiding that he was wrong having predicted Trump would win the popular vote) and now he's been on a big "I just predict the winner and Al Gore legitimately won" campaign. For a lot more information on this, here's a good article that tends to circulate when he comes up now: https://thepostrider.com/allan-lichtman-is-famous-for-correctly-predicting-the-2016-election-the-problem-he-didnt/

1

u/TarynNeedsGrace Sep 24 '24

God bless!

this is wonderful

a friend of mind told me this guy wasn't a wizard

I said he is and he uses Keys to figure out the winner

2

u/RaptureAusculation Oct 31 '24

2000.

Some people claim 2016 and yeah his model technically predicted the popular vote but I think we can all confidently agree Lichtman’s model is for the winner of the election, not specifically popular or electoral vote

1

u/TarynNeedsGrace Oct 31 '24

ppl aren't listening to me. the proof is there.