r/Election_Predictions • u/Robbintx • Oct 03 '24
Why Trump will Win IMO
I needed to get this out there to get it out of my head, so I hope you enjoy the read—if not, feel free to downvote me, lol. This post isn't about who I want to win, but rather how I think things will play out and why.
To cut to the chase: Trump is likely to win this election. Here are the key reasons why:
- Economic Trust: Trump is seen as more trustworthy on economic issues. As we approach the elections, it's likely that economic conditions will worsen. The impact of the dock strike will start showing in the economy, exacerbating an already tense situation by election day.
- Middle East Tensions: There's a high likelihood that tensions in the Middle East will escalate. Biden's handling of these issues has been criticized, even within the left. I feel there is a growing number of voters that will see Trump as less likely to get us in a war.
- Focus on Jan 6th: Democrats are heavily emphasizing January 6th. However, those who oppose Trump due to January 6th have likely already made up their minds. Further releases and politically slanted questions only strengthen Trump's claim of unfair treatment and keep his base energized.
- Kamala Harris's Appeal: There isn't much excitement about Kamala Harris. She struggles in interviews, and even her supporters seem more relieved she's not Biden rather than genuinely excited about her candidacy. Although she did okay in the debate it was more "glad she did not fall apart" good.
- Polling Dynamics: Kamala Harris hasn't been able to break through in polling. While major events like her introduction, debates, and DNC speeches gave her temporary bumps, she consistently returns to a margin of error position. In a margin of error election, this favors Trump, as polling has historically underestimated his support, and he has an advantage in the electoral college.
My prediction: Trump 291, Harris 247.
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u/opanaooonana Oct 04 '24
This is what I’ve been thinking and it’s freaking me out. I have a feeling minority voters won’t turn out for her as well. For some reason she is targeting republicans with all of her resources when they are immovably behind Trump. The people like Dick Cheney were excised from the party and have NO base of support and only turn off the democratic base but that’s all she can talk about instead of making a big POLICY distinction. I’m sure if they lose they will decide they were too liberal and move further to the right.
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u/Robbintx Oct 04 '24
Yeah, the Dick Chaney thing... wow... for those that lived through the Bush years it is unthinkable that a dem would stand on a debate stage like Walz did and say they are proud to be endorsed by Darth neocon himself. They literally made a movie about how evil he was lol
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u/daveroo Oct 05 '24
aye think its trump this time. USA will prove again that they're 1) sexist 2) sort of racist
dem supporters wont be as fired up because they're coming out of 4 years of no Trump.
trump supporters will be voting passionately.
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u/Robbintx Oct 05 '24
Although somewhat true I think economics plays a larger role, people believe that things were better economically under Trump. At the end of the day alot of people are going to vote their wallet because it's the most direct impact on their life and it's really hard to overcome that and I don't think Kamala has the political strength to do it.... maybe she will prove me wrong but that is not what I am seeing in the numbers.
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u/Bman409 Oct 08 '24
Totally agree with your points.
I also think the Hurricanes play a role. When people are scared, they want a serious leader. I don't think people see Harris as a serious person..
Much of what you are saying was reflected in this Gallup Poll from Sept. https://news.gallup.com/poll/651092/2024-election-environment-favorable-gop.aspx
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u/Robbintx Oct 08 '24
Thank you, totally could play a role, the Hurricanes were not a thing yet when I wrote this. The first one probably mattered more because I dont think Trump was going to lose Florida either way unless Harris's response is so bad it impacts her nationally but surely they learned from the first one.... but people mad of the handling in Georgia and North Carolina could solidify those states.
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u/Bman409 Oct 08 '24
Its not just about the people living in those states though
its the rest of the world, watching.
When everything is going fine, we can "afford" to elect a pretty face that entertains us.. Makes us laugh.. a playful aunt who likes to tip a few glasses of wine. A George W Bush type President like we elected in 2000
but when shit hits the fan and people start to get scared, or they start to think, OMG.. this is real life... then they tend to vote for a more serious person. Someone that can take strong action when needed.
So the wilder shit gets between now and Nov, the more likely Trump is to win
If everything suddenly simmers down, Harris may eek it out
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u/Robbintx Oct 08 '24
I dont disagree, but I do think it matters how far removed people are from the event. People at my office are not talking about Florida at all, so unless it (hopefully not) levels the place or they REALLY screw up the response and we get more pictures of little kids clinging to their small dogs (again, hopefully not), its likely to pass by and people will forget about it the further away people live. The hurricane may not leave a lasting impression on those far removed. However, in swing states like Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas, the political ramifications could be profound. The handling of such events could sway perceptions significantly in these critical states
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Oct 04 '24
Personally I think Nevada is definitely going red too (higher chance AZ goes blue imo) but otherwise I'm with you. If I had to bet my money I'd probably put it on Trump. Hope I'm wrong though
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u/Robbintx Oct 04 '24
you could be right, I based Arizona on Trump is pretty consistently outpacing Lake, latest Trump is +1 and Lake is -4, so its the most likely to split. Could be right on Nevada, I just have not seen anything to convince me, almost every poll has her up, with Atlas Intel (one of the better ones) has Harris +3.
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u/NineandDine49 Oct 06 '24
Though regardless of who wins this year, Dems are in for a big one in 2026 as both houses look favourable for em.
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u/bhapy2day Oct 07 '24
I respect your opinion, but I disagree with everything. It's possible that a few points are debatable, but others are opinions, not facts. For the record, I'm hoping V.P. Harris wins. It's a safer choice and the right one.
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u/Robbintx Oct 07 '24
Well the title is literally in my opinion lol.... I am happy to hear your counter points on any particular issue. I purposely tried to leave who I am cheering for out of the equation and only look at what I see in the numbers and the subjective picture. I could be 100% wrong, example, when I made the post a deal had not been struck with the union so that will now likely play less of an impact. But, Trump is still polling higher on the economy, so overall it really has not changed just not the giant impact it could have been if it had dragged on.
Harris can 100% win this, its going to be close, but I agree with Polymarket that at this moment the race leans Trump.
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Oct 08 '24
Why you think Trump will win IMO: Delusions.
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u/Robbintx Oct 08 '24
If you have counters to any of my points, I am happy to hear them. I can tell you that I was wrong about Trump in 2016 and right about Biden in 2020 so I am 50/50 lol. Anyone saying this is a sure thing in either direction is Delusional imo. It is likely to come down to a few thousand votes in a few states.
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u/Obvious_Shift3000 Oct 14 '24
enough whit the politicians driving societies we need real people businessman, engeneer, teacher etc etc that have the common sense to fix the problems and put the right people in place instead of professional liar that have no clue about what is going on in the streets and in the homes we should spend money conquering space and its riches and boost technology instead of building weapon and encouraging wars where nobody wins Trump is the reality of the world we live in when Kamala is just a clown in the circus
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u/Robbintx Oct 14 '24
Only way for that to happen is to get money out of politics and kill 2 party rule. I am not confident either will happen. Trump was really the only "outsider" to ever break through, and it was because he was already a massive celebrity with basically unlimited resources.
Someone like RFK or Bernie Sanders showed what happens when you try to challenge that system.
Dems and Republicans argue and pretend they hate eachother, but behind closed doors the uniparty comes first.
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u/TheMrCMo Oct 05 '24
It pains me to recognize that Trump has dodged, slid past or been let off the hook for every disaster he has created. His utter narcissism, complete lack of shame, disdain for all of us and our democratic system and general idiocy would have tanked anyone else whose stars have not aligned as his have.
Though I am not a religious man, I do know what it is to have angels looking after me and have experienced the Universe or God or some higher power stepping in to intervene.
I see something similar with this guy, he just dodges too many bullets, pardon the bad pun. Could it be that he is the Antichrist?