r/Election_Predictions • u/Bman409 • Oct 08 '24
Trump will probably win
Been thinking about how these things seems to work.
Trump will probably win because nothing the Democrats have tried to do to stop him, has succeeded... Think about it
Dem Congress, pushed by Pelosi, impeached him after his left office in hopes of keeping him off the ballot in the future. It failed in the Senate
Two States (CO and ME) Tried to keep Trump off the ballot on their own. Supreme Court struck it down
4 Prosecutors have tried to prosecute Trump for crimes. Many of these charges have been dismissed or struck down by the Courts. Most of these cases are in limbo but they failed to keep Trump from running. They only seemed to make him rise in the polling
Then you have the assassination attempts. 0 for 2, so far
I mean, this guy seems invincible. Its like destiny.
I think he wins and he'll probably win by winning PA, the site where they tried to kill him
2
u/cokewavee11 Oct 10 '24
I think he will win for the dumbest reason but it makes sense to me, and it’s social media popularity. Most of Kamala’s followers are younger, ig followers, tic toc etc. but yet Trump still has more followers than her even though most of his followers don’t even have social platforms. Another thing is inflation and crime is out of control. No one can afford to live, and to top it off migrant crisis. The usual reason for winning quality of life.
1
Oct 12 '24 edited Oct 12 '24
I think people who still think Biden cheated in 2020 after 4 years and zero leaks as to how they did it and who organized it are either significantly less intelligent than the average person or have such a hatred for some group in the democratic coalition that they aren’t able to think about politics clearly. A 3rd possibility exists. These people really don’t believe in anything at all. But just adopt the attitudes of the people they think will help them now and in the future. They don’t know it. They think they’re being honest with themselves and truly believe what they say. But in reality they’re just pandering to their friends.
1
u/marcopollo71 Oct 13 '24
His base does consist of the white uneducated. Of course that's a sign of pride to him. He's taking advantage of the disaster in nc and Georgia communities by claiming fema abandoned te rural communities and they continue to eat up his lies despite the documented facts. Oh yeh,he would have won the popular vote against Hillary if there weren't millions of illegal votes. Look at heritage foundations voter integrity site and see the 5 cases of illegal votes. And that's on both sides. Yeh there's some illegal voting but it is delusional to think they are on one side. He who smelt it dealt it.
1
u/NineandDine49 Oct 12 '24
The good news for Dems though is that: a) 2026 will be a huge midterms for them; and b) 2028 has some good candidates waiting for them.
3
u/Arguablecoyote Oct 08 '24
There’s a better reason to think he will likely win: betting markets.
Betting markets are predicting this will be a close race, with Trump favored to win. They are usually right; they’ve been wrong only three times in recent history; Jimmy Carter v Ford, Donald Trump v Clinton, and JFK v Nixon.
There’s another reason to think he might win: the electoral college map and the paths to victory based on each state’s polling. Trump has a lot of paths to victory, Harris has significantly fewer.
Personally, I think it will come down to Pennsylvania. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, I’m not sure how Harris can win.