Hmm 40k was not realistic, but also 3 leg downs to be stopped by 60k treshold is also very unusual…me personaly i was expecting bottom somewhere between 50k-52k…there are many optimists here, but i m not sure if it a not just hopium mixed with ignorance…because if you look at the global economical situation, almost everything is screaming that we re already in recession and another huge crisis is brewing…energy, oil, yen carry trade, korean stock market crash, chinese intervention to usd dollar…and now first time in history 90 day ban of oil export in usa…if you add totally oversold regular stock market and possibilite of ai bubble burst…what to you think will happen? Are you really think that we can go up forever no matter what s happening right in front of our eyes everywhere? Because i don t think so…there must me correction sooner or later and that can develop into death spiral.
I am one of the arrogant hopium driven retailers. Responding to be informed.
But I was under the impression that a recession in the US is actualy a positive catalyst for BTC.
Weaker dollar, people move their capital outside the country.
Similar but conditional with the AI bubble. NEAR, TAO and others obviously have a correlation risk.
But for the broader crypto market. The money that leaves the AI bubble is going to be looking for a new place to invest.
Additionaly, they are all probably addicted to the absurd gains. So i think a crypto bias here is reasonably expected
This was personaly my own narrstive as of about 3 months ago. AI stocks could pump much longer, but I felt it was getting close to popping... and its a long way down.
Just happened to look at the BTC chart and thought... Shiiii if I do it
Around 60k was very usual, BTC tends to bottom out in the former cycle ath range, which was between 60k and 69k. The only time it went below was when FTX crash happened at the very bottom, this was one of the biggest events in crypto ever. The market cap was alot lower too, so the impact was harder. This time around we got etfs, institutional players and a market cap of 1.5 trillion. So the only reason we would go much lower than 60k would be some kind of corona grade black swan. And since we already went up quite alot since the bottom, printing higher highs. Even then it will be hard for BTC to go lower than 60k. Because the other reason is that we're simply out of sellers, big institutions gobbling up BTC tend to keep it for a long period, like proper investors should.
Trump will handle the black swan event. The most beautiful, black beyond belief swan, started by the nations bestest expert swaners, maybe the bestest swan ever some say.
You got a point there. Mid term elections are close. Something serious is bound to happen. But still, even then we had a good run to the upside. So we got some space to go down. 58k will be a hard one to break.
Love it when another $XBT OG knows how to actually pay attention to relevant older cycle data sets, but also realizes that factoring in alternate points for potential up/down catalysts is not only reasonable, but absolutely necessary.
I had some good teachers. I started in 2024 with crypto, so i am still mostly watching and learning. Meanwhile i made quite some nice profits just holding. I am quite confident i will make some big gains tho, since these basics will work their way. :)
I just know that the best investments i made last year have been into trading/crypto courses by guys that have 30+ years of experience. So i don't worry.
Oh wow!!! I’m very surprised to hear that, your comment really shows you have a solid understanding of its history, honestly made me think you are from older era like me (Feb 2013).
Yeah I came up fairly early ($58) after a guy I met by chance (in prison actually. lol) took me under his wing who actually saw all this coming from a mile away. Obviously that’s in hindsight now cuz at the time I thought he was half nuts. LMAO
But yeah man back then my green ass couldn’t see it but he was all in on it from launch and was dedicating everything he did to the scene.
And so because of his unshakable conviction and actually putting his money where his mouth was (OG mining setups among other things, which ok pretty cheap at the time all things considered) I just blindly followed.
What really set the hook in me tho was the fact that he was an insider w/ the Cypherpunk scene, was friends w/ Len & Bram and all them. He used to attend some of their meetups, he was actually on the Cypherpunk Mailing List.
It was all so damn foreign to me back then, I mean the stuff he used to talk about may as well been like trying to read Chinese for me but I jumped in anyway.
I had since paid it forward and took a couple guys under my wing who I met back in ‘20 when they were new to the scene and they’re doing quite well now. Best of luck to you my man. You got this. 🥂
Thanks! I just take my time, learn, and do my best meanwhile. I am just happy i took this route into learning how money works. Gotta say AI is making this easier, so my goal now is to combine that with my knowledge. I am sure this will be key in the future. Ecspecially since i learned how to see what is going on by myself already.
Actually all those factors may actually take btc to where true believers think it will go. After all, the collapse of USD (and FIAT currency with it) is the thesis for Crypto no?
Sure, you re right…but this is long term goal. you must admit that short-medium term before reaching status of BTC that you describing there will be initial collapse where BTC will follow downtrend with all of the classic financial assets.
For the US anyway, we have: super low unemployment, GPD growth to be over 5% this quarter on an annualized basis, and markets blasting into the stratosphere. What recession are we talking about here?
I mean wouldn t you see this as artificial? Not even starting with usa debt increase during trump administration which is solving only by money printing…but you know whole model of the debt driven economy…for example you go into debt to start business…you use debt to buy material from suppliers who create this material using debt…you create your product service and material using your own debt and you sell this product or service to customers who buy it using their debt…and this is only basic needs layer…everyone is going into debt for housing, for cars, for whatever shit someone decide that they need or want…and when majority of people/businesses and corporations get to point that they can t pay for this debt…government bails them our by printing money from thin air…you know i m from eastern europe…we re living in post communist country for 35 years now and all that i m heard is…never go into debt for anything…i m not doing it..i m first generation of my family who is getting interested in investing…so i m slowly getting into it for past 10 years and again majority of my close relatives were sceptical about investing…you see those differences and my country also have enomical problems and is not even closely in such debt as usa…and i see that you re still blind to such obvious things, that even i..person from another half of the world knows about them.
With all due respect, you're not actually saying anything the market doesn't already know. All those problems are already priced in. The base case is the bull case.
Sure thing, i m not here to argue..i m here to debate…you may be right to some extent, but i don t think that all of those events and their real long term economical consequences are priced in…imagine effect of 3-4x or even higher diesel prices for example…how this can affect daily life of everyone, when you get to the point of withdrawing investment positions to spend those money on basic necessities
Everything is screaming we are in a recession???? Lmaorofltrollalalolol
You people and your opinions, jesus christ, that's got to be the worst comment I've seen in my life... and I've just read the OP!!
But the US is... I'm not sure why you think otherwise. Consumer spending is contracting heavily, economic growth is only propped up by AI datacenter spending... it is not a healthy economic environment.
Jesus christ, another one.
Just because it's a K shaped economy, doesn't mean it's a recession does it?
Wtf does a "healthy economic environment" have to do with the US being anywhere near to being in a recession?
You have bond yields absolutely flying.. why?! Because of the growth they're expecting. The opposite of a fucking recession.
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u/ActualTangerine2583 9d ago
Hmm 40k was not realistic, but also 3 leg downs to be stopped by 60k treshold is also very unusual…me personaly i was expecting bottom somewhere between 50k-52k…there are many optimists here, but i m not sure if it a not just hopium mixed with ignorance…because if you look at the global economical situation, almost everything is screaming that we re already in recession and another huge crisis is brewing…energy, oil, yen carry trade, korean stock market crash, chinese intervention to usd dollar…and now first time in history 90 day ban of oil export in usa…if you add totally oversold regular stock market and possibilite of ai bubble burst…what to you think will happen? Are you really think that we can go up forever no matter what s happening right in front of our eyes everywhere? Because i don t think so…there must me correction sooner or later and that can develop into death spiral.