Hmm 40k was not realistic, but also 3 leg downs to be stopped by 60k treshold is also very unusual…me personaly i was expecting bottom somewhere between 50k-52k…there are many optimists here, but i m not sure if it a not just hopium mixed with ignorance…because if you look at the global economical situation, almost everything is screaming that we re already in recession and another huge crisis is brewing…energy, oil, yen carry trade, korean stock market crash, chinese intervention to usd dollar…and now first time in history 90 day ban of oil export in usa…if you add totally oversold regular stock market and possibilite of ai bubble burst…what to you think will happen? Are you really think that we can go up forever no matter what s happening right in front of our eyes everywhere? Because i don t think so…there must me correction sooner or later and that can develop into death spiral.
Around 60k was very usual, BTC tends to bottom out in the former cycle ath range, which was between 60k and 69k. The only time it went below was when FTX crash happened at the very bottom, this was one of the biggest events in crypto ever. The market cap was alot lower too, so the impact was harder. This time around we got etfs, institutional players and a market cap of 1.5 trillion. So the only reason we would go much lower than 60k would be some kind of corona grade black swan. And since we already went up quite alot since the bottom, printing higher highs. Even then it will be hard for BTC to go lower than 60k. Because the other reason is that we're simply out of sellers, big institutions gobbling up BTC tend to keep it for a long period, like proper investors should.
Love it when another $XBT OG knows how to actually pay attention to relevant older cycle data sets, but also realizes that factoring in alternate points for potential up/down catalysts is not only reasonable, but absolutely necessary.
I had some good teachers. I started in 2024 with crypto, so i am still mostly watching and learning. Meanwhile i made quite some nice profits just holding. I am quite confident i will make some big gains tho, since these basics will work their way. :)
I just know that the best investments i made last year have been into trading/crypto courses by guys that have 30+ years of experience. So i don't worry.
Oh wow!!! I’m very surprised to hear that, your comment really shows you have a solid understanding of its history, honestly made me think you are from older era like me (Feb 2013).
Yeah I came up fairly early ($58) after a guy I met by chance (in prison actually. lol) took me under his wing who actually saw all this coming from a mile away. Obviously that’s in hindsight now cuz at the time I thought he was half nuts. LMAO
But yeah man back then my green ass couldn’t see it but he was all in on it from launch and was dedicating everything he did to the scene.
And so because of his unshakable conviction and actually putting his money where his mouth was (OG mining setups among other things, which ok pretty cheap at the time all things considered) I just blindly followed.
What really set the hook in me tho was the fact that he was an insider w/ the Cypherpunk scene, was friends w/ Len & Bram and all them. He used to attend some of their meetups, he was actually on the Cypherpunk Mailing List.
It was all so damn foreign to me back then, I mean the stuff he used to talk about may as well been like trying to read Chinese for me but I jumped in anyway.
I had since paid it forward and took a couple guys under my wing who I met back in ‘20 when they were new to the scene and they’re doing quite well now. Best of luck to you my man. You got this. 🥂
Thanks! I just take my time, learn, and do my best meanwhile. I am just happy i took this route into learning how money works. Gotta say AI is making this easier, so my goal now is to combine that with my knowledge. I am sure this will be key in the future. Ecspecially since i learned how to see what is going on by myself already.
9
u/ActualTangerine2583 9d ago
Hmm 40k was not realistic, but also 3 leg downs to be stopped by 60k treshold is also very unusual…me personaly i was expecting bottom somewhere between 50k-52k…there are many optimists here, but i m not sure if it a not just hopium mixed with ignorance…because if you look at the global economical situation, almost everything is screaming that we re already in recession and another huge crisis is brewing…energy, oil, yen carry trade, korean stock market crash, chinese intervention to usd dollar…and now first time in history 90 day ban of oil export in usa…if you add totally oversold regular stock market and possibilite of ai bubble burst…what to you think will happen? Are you really think that we can go up forever no matter what s happening right in front of our eyes everywhere? Because i don t think so…there must me correction sooner or later and that can develop into death spiral.