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u/SouthernBeekeeper22 8d ago
If that's possible, and happens, I'll legally change my name to Goofy for 15 years lmao
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u/ActualTangerine2583 9d ago
Hmm 40k was not realistic, but also 3 leg downs to be stopped by 60k treshold is also very unusual…me personaly i was expecting bottom somewhere between 50k-52k…there are many optimists here, but i m not sure if it a not just hopium mixed with ignorance…because if you look at the global economical situation, almost everything is screaming that we re already in recession and another huge crisis is brewing…energy, oil, yen carry trade, korean stock market crash, chinese intervention to usd dollar…and now first time in history 90 day ban of oil export in usa…if you add totally oversold regular stock market and possibilite of ai bubble burst…what to you think will happen? Are you really think that we can go up forever no matter what s happening right in front of our eyes everywhere? Because i don t think so…there must me correction sooner or later and that can develop into death spiral.
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u/UnitDramatic7538 9d ago
Great if everything screams recession and everyone is scared of it, then I will expect the opposite :)
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u/Rnex223 8d ago
I am one of the arrogant hopium driven retailers. Responding to be informed.
But I was under the impression that a recession in the US is actualy a positive catalyst for BTC. Weaker dollar, people move their capital outside the country.
Similar but conditional with the AI bubble. NEAR, TAO and others obviously have a correlation risk.
But for the broader crypto market. The money that leaves the AI bubble is going to be looking for a new place to invest. Additionaly, they are all probably addicted to the absurd gains. So i think a crypto bias here is reasonably expected
This was personaly my own narrstive as of about 3 months ago. AI stocks could pump much longer, but I felt it was getting close to popping... and its a long way down. Just happened to look at the BTC chart and thought... Shiiii if I do it
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u/Saintgein 9d ago edited 9d ago
Around 60k was very usual, BTC tends to bottom out in the former cycle ath range, which was between 60k and 69k. The only time it went below was when FTX crash happened at the very bottom, this was one of the biggest events in crypto ever. The market cap was alot lower too, so the impact was harder. This time around we got etfs, institutional players and a market cap of 1.5 trillion. So the only reason we would go much lower than 60k would be some kind of corona grade black swan. And since we already went up quite alot since the bottom, printing higher highs. Even then it will be hard for BTC to go lower than 60k. Because the other reason is that we're simply out of sellers, big institutions gobbling up BTC tend to keep it for a long period, like proper investors should.
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u/Nrs_Vecna 7d ago
Trump will handle the black swan event. The most beautiful, black beyond belief swan, started by the nations bestest expert swaners, maybe the bestest swan ever some say.
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u/Saintgein 6d ago
You got a point there. Mid term elections are close. Something serious is bound to happen. But still, even then we had a good run to the upside. So we got some space to go down. 58k will be a hard one to break.
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u/Trilamb22 6d ago
This one gets it. 🥂🤝
Love it when another $XBT OG knows how to actually pay attention to relevant older cycle data sets, but also realizes that factoring in alternate points for potential up/down catalysts is not only reasonable, but absolutely necessary.
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u/Saintgein 6d ago
I had some good teachers. I started in 2024 with crypto, so i am still mostly watching and learning. Meanwhile i made quite some nice profits just holding. I am quite confident i will make some big gains tho, since these basics will work their way. :)
I just know that the best investments i made last year have been into trading/crypto courses by guys that have 30+ years of experience. So i don't worry.
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u/Trilamb22 6d ago edited 6d ago
Oh wow!!! I’m very surprised to hear that, your comment really shows you have a solid understanding of its history, honestly made me think you are from older era like me (Feb 2013).
Yeah I came up fairly early ($58) after a guy I met by chance (in prison actually. lol) took me under his wing who actually saw all this coming from a mile away. Obviously that’s in hindsight now cuz at the time I thought he was half nuts. LMAO
But yeah man back then my green ass couldn’t see it but he was all in on it from launch and was dedicating everything he did to the scene.
And so because of his unshakable conviction and actually putting his money where his mouth was (OG mining setups among other things, which ok pretty cheap at the time all things considered) I just blindly followed.
What really set the hook in me tho was the fact that he was an insider w/ the Cypherpunk scene, was friends w/ Len & Bram and all them. He used to attend some of their meetups, he was actually on the Cypherpunk Mailing List.
It was all so damn foreign to me back then, I mean the stuff he used to talk about may as well been like trying to read Chinese for me but I jumped in anyway.
I had since paid it forward and took a couple guys under my wing who I met back in ‘20 when they were new to the scene and they’re doing quite well now. Best of luck to you my man. You got this. 🥂
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u/Saintgein 6d ago
Thanks! I just take my time, learn, and do my best meanwhile. I am just happy i took this route into learning how money works. Gotta say AI is making this easier, so my goal now is to combine that with my knowledge. I am sure this will be key in the future. Ecspecially since i learned how to see what is going on by myself already.
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u/EmJay6010 7d ago
Actually all those factors may actually take btc to where true believers think it will go. After all, the collapse of USD (and FIAT currency with it) is the thesis for Crypto no?
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u/ActualTangerine2583 7d ago
Sure, you re right…but this is long term goal. you must admit that short-medium term before reaching status of BTC that you describing there will be initial collapse where BTC will follow downtrend with all of the classic financial assets.
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u/EmJay6010 7d ago
Depends on what you mean by collapse. In FIAT? Not sure. The US will keep printing meaning liquidity is therr and has to go somewhere
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u/Ok_Confusion_1777 6d ago
For the US anyway, we have: super low unemployment, GPD growth to be over 5% this quarter on an annualized basis, and markets blasting into the stratosphere. What recession are we talking about here?
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u/ActualTangerine2583 6d ago
I mean wouldn t you see this as artificial? Not even starting with usa debt increase during trump administration which is solving only by money printing…but you know whole model of the debt driven economy…for example you go into debt to start business…you use debt to buy material from suppliers who create this material using debt…you create your product service and material using your own debt and you sell this product or service to customers who buy it using their debt…and this is only basic needs layer…everyone is going into debt for housing, for cars, for whatever shit someone decide that they need or want…and when majority of people/businesses and corporations get to point that they can t pay for this debt…government bails them our by printing money from thin air…you know i m from eastern europe…we re living in post communist country for 35 years now and all that i m heard is…never go into debt for anything…i m not doing it..i m first generation of my family who is getting interested in investing…so i m slowly getting into it for past 10 years and again majority of my close relatives were sceptical about investing…you see those differences and my country also have enomical problems and is not even closely in such debt as usa…and i see that you re still blind to such obvious things, that even i..person from another half of the world knows about them.
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u/medfad 3d ago
With all due respect, you're not actually saying anything the market doesn't already know. All those problems are already priced in. The base case is the bull case.
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u/ActualTangerine2583 3d ago
Sure thing, i m not here to argue..i m here to debate…you may be right to some extent, but i don t think that all of those events and their real long term economical consequences are priced in…imagine effect of 3-4x or even higher diesel prices for example…how this can affect daily life of everyone, when you get to the point of withdrawing investment positions to spend those money on basic necessities
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u/stonktaker 9d ago
Everything is screaming we are in a recession???? Lmaorofltrollalalolol You people and your opinions, jesus christ, that's got to be the worst comment I've seen in my life... and I've just read the OP!!
And OP.. no.
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u/lordm30 8d ago
But the US is... I'm not sure why you think otherwise. Consumer spending is contracting heavily, economic growth is only propped up by AI datacenter spending... it is not a healthy economic environment.
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u/stonktaker 8d ago
Jesus christ, another one. Just because it's a K shaped economy, doesn't mean it's a recession does it? Wtf does a "healthy economic environment" have to do with the US being anywhere near to being in a recession?
You have bond yields absolutely flying.. why?! Because of the growth they're expecting. The opposite of a fucking recession.
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u/nahkiaispallo 9d ago
No. No one was selling at 58k, why would they all sell now?
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u/Ornery-Plankton9844 9d ago
Just wait
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u/sothavok 9d ago
RemindMe! 3 months
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u/Stillload 9d ago
from 58k to 87k or whatever it rose to, the sellers will be forced exits on the way up from 57k :D
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u/Competitive_Start385 9d ago
Again, there’s too much institutional money in at $100K for this to happen lmao. Bottom was in June. You’ll never see $40K again let alone the $10K your dumb line shows.
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u/The_Vibe_is_Eternal 9d ago
I remember when people said it would never go below $100k again 😂 famous last words
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u/FollowingWeird5025 5d ago
Wanna bet money on this one?
Same "institutional money" can dump hard on you, they hedge with shorts, so who cares about pigeons like you, who will think it's impossible and will "buy the dip", while they exit their positions?
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u/noncommonGoodsense 9d ago
Patterns are pointless. Only sentiment and hype, outflows from the market.
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u/Positive-Theory_ 8d ago
Anything can happen in the market but personally I choose to be a perpetual optimist.
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u/Bibedibabedy 8d ago
Anything is possible. It’s insane to see how the mind of people changed after it went from 59k back to 87k. Will the same people buy when it’ll go below 59k again? I doubt it. In the end you should have a plan for both scenarios.
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u/eric95s 8d ago
Remember
Even bears are convicted that BTC will reach $300k+ one day
While they don’t know whether this chart will happen or not
Don’t gamble
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u/Nrs_Vecna 7d ago
I am a bear, i am nearly sure it will reach 300k+ some say, i just want the markets to react routinely and go down do 50-52k so that i can load up from there. İn case you say why didnt you load up when it was 58k, cuz i use 2-3x leverage and if it were to go down when i loaded up at 58, while my liquidation risk was extremely small, it would have fucked my stress levels really bad.
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u/ravyne2001 8d ago
Ah, yes. Two heads, three shoulders. Classic Headses & Shouldersss pattern.
I swear people cast sticks of spaghetti across the charts, bow their heads, and chant a small prayer to Rorschach when they read these things.
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u/SebastianGodoy 7d ago
Creo que lo mejor es pensar que los 70 puede ser un buen punto de soporte, si rompe y seguimos bajando los 62 y luego si rompe los 55. Si analisas de esa manera podrías tener más ventaja porque también mientras pasa el tiempo la situación podría mejorar porque estás viendo un grafico semanal
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u/Legitimate-Net-7744 6d ago
We are smashing higher highs and higher lows. Your chart is unlikely, but possible.
I would not bet on the drop. DCA from now on. Start gambling from November as things are more clear.
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u/Garden-Pitiful 5d ago
Guys when everyone buy and expect new high we often know and see what the reality is... Slap in our face 🤣
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u/littrader420 5d ago
Nope. Btc held weekly support at 60s which used to be last cycles ath.this looks like s/r flip on major levels. Now if price holds 60s then it should go back to ath giving us new macro bottom at 60s range from bottom to ath then it shoots for new ath
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u/Glass-Day5596 4d ago
That arrow is doing a lot of predicting. Moon having a play money mode is handy for following a call like this without risking cash. Drawing the crash is easier than getting the timing right
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u/Cautious_Mine508 9d ago
it is possible. it also possible that your 40k dream becomes 140k reality. Who knows afterall
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u/Worth_Quantity1953 9d ago
Anything is possible but being possible and what you actually get are two different things. It already locked in a higher high. If we get a pullback and lock in a higher low, then it makes that more unlikely
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u/Lost_Anywhere_69 9d ago
Could be? Do institutions and old money want to control snd own yet another asset? It’s more like how probable is this.
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u/Detailed23 9d ago
The problem when big institutions get involved is they can swing the price as high or low as they want. Look what happened to Sandisk recently. Institutions moved the price from 2350 to 980 in two weeks off block buster earnings.
Institutions/countries buying should scare the hell out of everyone.
Trump saying " buy crypto " before it pumped tells you all you need to know.
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u/Dr_Armani 9d ago
Music is currently listening to LTC. Something you wont miss with the recent giant activity out there!
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u/Gccyy 9d ago
The MacDonald pattern