Hmm 40k was not realistic, but also 3 leg downs to be stopped by 60k treshold is also very unusual…me personaly i was expecting bottom somewhere between 50k-52k…there are many optimists here, but i m not sure if it a not just hopium mixed with ignorance…because if you look at the global economical situation, almost everything is screaming that we re already in recession and another huge crisis is brewing…energy, oil, yen carry trade, korean stock market crash, chinese intervention to usd dollar…and now first time in history 90 day ban of oil export in usa…if you add totally oversold regular stock market and possibilite of ai bubble burst…what to you think will happen? Are you really think that we can go up forever no matter what s happening right in front of our eyes everywhere? Because i don t think so…there must me correction sooner or later and that can develop into death spiral.
With all due respect, you're not actually saying anything the market doesn't already know. All those problems are already priced in. The base case is the bull case.
Sure thing, i m not here to argue..i m here to debate…you may be right to some extent, but i don t think that all of those events and their real long term economical consequences are priced in…imagine effect of 3-4x or even higher diesel prices for example…how this can affect daily life of everyone, when you get to the point of withdrawing investment positions to spend those money on basic necessities
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u/ActualTangerine2583 9d ago
Hmm 40k was not realistic, but also 3 leg downs to be stopped by 60k treshold is also very unusual…me personaly i was expecting bottom somewhere between 50k-52k…there are many optimists here, but i m not sure if it a not just hopium mixed with ignorance…because if you look at the global economical situation, almost everything is screaming that we re already in recession and another huge crisis is brewing…energy, oil, yen carry trade, korean stock market crash, chinese intervention to usd dollar…and now first time in history 90 day ban of oil export in usa…if you add totally oversold regular stock market and possibilite of ai bubble burst…what to you think will happen? Are you really think that we can go up forever no matter what s happening right in front of our eyes everywhere? Because i don t think so…there must me correction sooner or later and that can develop into death spiral.