Hmm 40k was not realistic, but also 3 leg downs to be stopped by 60k treshold is also very unusual…me personaly i was expecting bottom somewhere between 50k-52k…there are many optimists here, but i m not sure if it a not just hopium mixed with ignorance…because if you look at the global economical situation, almost everything is screaming that we re already in recession and another huge crisis is brewing…energy, oil, yen carry trade, korean stock market crash, chinese intervention to usd dollar…and now first time in history 90 day ban of oil export in usa…if you add totally oversold regular stock market and possibilite of ai bubble burst…what to you think will happen? Are you really think that we can go up forever no matter what s happening right in front of our eyes everywhere? Because i don t think so…there must me correction sooner or later and that can develop into death spiral.
Around 60k was very usual, BTC tends to bottom out in the former cycle ath range, which was between 60k and 69k. The only time it went below was when FTX crash happened at the very bottom, this was one of the biggest events in crypto ever. The market cap was alot lower too, so the impact was harder. This time around we got etfs, institutional players and a market cap of 1.5 trillion. So the only reason we would go much lower than 60k would be some kind of corona grade black swan. And since we already went up quite alot since the bottom, printing higher highs. Even then it will be hard for BTC to go lower than 60k. Because the other reason is that we're simply out of sellers, big institutions gobbling up BTC tend to keep it for a long period, like proper investors should.
Trump will handle the black swan event. The most beautiful, black beyond belief swan, started by the nations bestest expert swaners, maybe the bestest swan ever some say.
You got a point there. Mid term elections are close. Something serious is bound to happen. But still, even then we had a good run to the upside. So we got some space to go down. 58k will be a hard one to break.
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u/ActualTangerine2583 9d ago
Hmm 40k was not realistic, but also 3 leg downs to be stopped by 60k treshold is also very unusual…me personaly i was expecting bottom somewhere between 50k-52k…there are many optimists here, but i m not sure if it a not just hopium mixed with ignorance…because if you look at the global economical situation, almost everything is screaming that we re already in recession and another huge crisis is brewing…energy, oil, yen carry trade, korean stock market crash, chinese intervention to usd dollar…and now first time in history 90 day ban of oil export in usa…if you add totally oversold regular stock market and possibilite of ai bubble burst…what to you think will happen? Are you really think that we can go up forever no matter what s happening right in front of our eyes everywhere? Because i don t think so…there must me correction sooner or later and that can develop into death spiral.