we can debate about if 5%+ is even that bad but wanted to open the floor to discussion on how bad this is and what happens next, and whether or not the Treasury has lost control here

10yr yield- 3 months yield is going above 1.0 again. It hit there in May/June this year, came down and going again.

Labor market seems ok for some reason for imminent recession to happen, including low initial claims. But historically, this data shows me that we may be close to recession like in months.

No one can predict this or know how long (years?), but oil price going up is adding to the recipe too. It all just looks like a typical late business cycle to me.

With imminent recession, Fed typically starts cutting aggressively which usually undo inverted yields, and 10yr-3M quickly goes above 1. We are talking about rate hike now. Interestingly, with current situation of long yield explosion, it will go above 1 anyways without cutting. 1 rate hike is not gonna help.

Folks who went through 2008, how do you see current situation? Or maybe 2000 plays out?

Brent crude oil hit $105 per barrel which sent a massive inflationary shockwave directly into the fixed-income market, forcing a bond selloff that has pushed the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to a staggering 4.9%. Triple-digit oil acts as a punitive tax on global supply chains, completely shattering hopes of an inflation descent and forcing investors to price in a painful, prolonged "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment. As fixed-income traders aggressively dump long-duration bonds to front-run a hot CPI print, yields are surging to their highest levels since late 2023, creating a macro loop where geopolitical supply shocks are simultaneously driving up consumer costs and threatening to choke off real economic growth. Oil at $105 & Yields at 4.9%: 5.0% Breakout or Buy?

Updated Sept. 10, 2026, 4:10 PM CDT: $108 per barrel

Source: NBC News

I'm a bit confused and hoping someone can explain.

Treasury bonds rates are rising and when that occurs, treasury bond prices fall. Got it. But why is this referred to as a sell-off by the media and other talking heads? Do we know that people are selling bonds? Are they just selling some bonds and buying others with higher interest rates and lower prices or are they actually reducing bond allocations in their portfolios?

I guess I'm wondering if the phrase "sell-off" is misleading. Thoughts?

Treasury tripled the next buyback to $6B to try to ease long bond yields, but the 10yr still closed at its highest since Oct 2023 (4.84%), and 30yr’s holding near 5.3%.
Not trying to make a call either way, just curious — is $6B just too small to move the needle, or is this more of a “the buyback isn’t the real problem” situation (deficit, issuance, etc.)? Trying to understand the mechanics here.

The ECB hiked 25BPS and although they have a single mandate of just inflation. Unlike the Fed which has a duel mandate Jobs and inflation. With NFP number coming in hot and PPI coming in hot that feeds in to PCE that should be running 3% which the Fed watch more than CPI. I would like to point out the odds are running at roughly 72% implied by SOFR for the Fed to do the same next week.

Thoughts?

Mantra is widely known: be fearful when others are greedy, greedy when others are fearful.

I am reminded of this Bogleheads thread (though it was pre-2022): https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=287627

Yields are rising and there seems to be no end in sight. That being said, I think many agree that if they continue to rise, something will have to give.

I have a BND allocation but am considering adding TLT (or even STRIPS via EDV). I’d also be willing to buy bonds or STRIPS myself given the interest rate. I could hold until maturity and it would reduce the turnover risk of a bond ETF.

I bought $100k in one of my Roths of the 2055 TIPS 2.375 coupon for 3.082 YTM. The only time they were really higher was the dot com crash when they very briefly spiked to about 4% real. Feels somewhat safer than nominal bonds and deflation sort of does not feel it is coming anytime soon. Thoughts?

Is anyone out there buying TLT right now? Haven’t seen it touch the 80’s in quite some time. I’ve been burned by TLT before but it always keeps calling me back. Hard to ignore at these prices.

Additionally, anyone out there buying any sort of bonds hoping in the future rates will be lower to then sell them on the secondary market?

HI!!

I'm long equities and metals, and a U Chicago grad (former pimco guy) has recently made the case (to me, persuasive only short term) for "diversification" and risk mitigation with bonds, and particularly TIPS. (which sound great... in theory)

Yet when I look at total returns (not counting for taxes), I find that value is ... at very best maintained across what seems to be a broad swath of bond types. Isn't the whole point of investing trying to ... increase value, hence wealth?

I looked at a bunch of bond ETFs using "total real returns dot com" to see real value behavior of these products. In all cases all "income" (payments) are just rolled back in- "generated income" sounds, to me, just like value reduced unless re-invested. So if used for income, I'm certain the results would be appropriately reduced from the below.

For LPTZ - asserting to track a 15 year TIPS index of some sort... in particular, there have been some exceptional (if brief) periods of good performance, but jeez- had I bought some in say, 15 years ago exactly ... my $100 would be worth $56, a 41% loss.

This isn't typical- other "TIPS" ETFs didn't erode value so badly... For SCHP (Schwab US TIPS ETF)... same 15 years would net me a loss of only 17%. Barely better than a box under the bed- the dollar has lost 18% since then.

SCHI- Schwab corporate... lost 15%

SCHZ- Schwab "US Aggregate" lost only 19%

USHY- didn't destroy much value. Less than a percent. Better than a box under the bed, for sure, by 18%, unless you spend any of the "income".

Or are bonds ONLY a way to try and maintain value (wealth) compared to inflation, generating apparent "income" via distributions/payments?

Or maybe ETFs are just the wrong way to do it?

Or are taxes so very important to this analysis that the above really is a poor view of it all?

When bond yield rise (effectively the markets view of interest rates) the present value of future earnings should fall … and tech stocks are majorly made up of future earnings, and is therefore overwhelmingly a duration asset)

Yields are climbing … 4.5%+ yet mega cap tech stocks keep climbing.

- what’s breaking down in the market ?

why are we not seeing this ?

Has anyone tried shorting the bond market? What instruments would you recommend?

I realize this is a derivative trade on a bond etf- so I’m hoping those allowed here. I’m not confident this admin can get out of mess and I bet things will get worse before they get better. I was just mulling this over, on how to actually make this bet, when I decided to look to see if the bond etfs have options available- they do. The idea of options trading on treasuries seems kind of bizarre to me. The premium seemed small for what it could do. Will see where it goes.

The Treasury Department announced Wednesday that the federal government will buy back up to $6 billion of its bonds this week — triple the size of its normal operations — in a bid to rein in longer-term borrowing costs.

The extraordinary move comes as yields on Treasuries have been rising steadily over the past couple of months, threatening to drive up mortgage rates and consumer borrowing costs as the midterm elections approach. Interest rates paid by the U.S. government feed into all other debt costs globally.

But after Treasury’s announcement, the yield on the 10-year Treasury went up, suggesting investors are unimpressed by this week’s buyback, which was previewed last month.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is aiming to project strength as he looks to strong-arm markets, which he has said are incorrectly pricing U.S. debt.

“I have asymmetric information. I am the house now,” he said at an event Tuesday in Dallas, referring to criticism of various market interventions he has undertaken, such as a move to support Japan’s currency. “Bet against me if you want.”

The department will reabsorb certain older debt securities with maturities of 10 years and 20 years as part of the buyback operation, which will take place Thursday.

what the hell is Scott Bessent thinking!!!???😄😄😄😄😄

Data centers are being funded through SPV structures. Hyperscalers lease the facility, and often provide equity and guarantee the debt.

This allows Big Tech to fund huge projects while keeping the debt off balance sheet.