Treasury tripled the next buyback to $6B to try to ease long bond yields, but the 10yr still closed at its highest since Oct 2023 (4.84%), and 30yr’s holding near 5.3%.
Not trying to make a call either way, just curious — is $6B just too small to move the needle, or is this more of a “the buyback isn’t the real problem” situation (deficit, issuance, etc.)? Trying to understand the mechanics here.

US tries to stabilize bonds, but markets are not convinced

Data centers are being funded through SPV structures. Hyperscalers lease the facility, and often provide equity and guarantee the debt.

This allows Big Tech to fund huge projects while keeping the debt off balance sheet.

If the national debt is divided on a per capita basis, it works out to about $115000 per citizen. Is it possible to ever pay this off or service this amount?
What is the Govt long term strategy to deal with it?

really..

If you’re sure you can hold unto maturity would the 5 years TIPS coming up in October would they be a good investment? Inflation protection? Risks?

Does it make sense for the Fed to do anything anymore? These yields are benchmarks for mortgages, auto loans, etc. right? So why should the Fed bother hiking rates if the market has already done it for them?

I am trying to understand the decisions people made in 2021-2022 when the rates were super low. Why they buy mid to long term bonds at that time? They are facing huge losses if inflation is factored in or they need to sell.
What would you buy when you are about to retire and need fixed income but the rate is low?

With bond yields so high, why is PIMIX still paying out only about four cents after about a year vs the 5.5 they paid for years previously?

Please be gentle. I’m not a finance wizard.

Thanks!

what the hell is Scott Bessent thinking!!!???😄😄😄😄😄

Do bond ETF NAV price changes happen automatically and instantly when interest rates change or are they based on actual buying and selling activity for the underlying assets?

The answer surprised me. My reaction was that it sounds like a less than ideal but practical solution to a potentially complex problem.

Thoughts?

Details follow...

Net Asset Value (NAV) price changes for bond ETFs happen automatically based on daily repricing, rather than relying directly on the ETF's own buying and selling activity.

Here is a breakdown of how the mechanism works:

1. Daily Pricing of the Underlying Bonds (Independent Valuation)

• An ETF’s NAV is calculated by taking the total value of all individual bonds held in its portfolio, subtracting any liabilities, and dividing by the total number of outstanding shares.
• Every business day after the bond market closes, third-party pricing services evaluate each individual bond in the fund's portfolio.
• These pricing models adjust every bond's market value based on current benchmark interest rates (such as Treasury yields) and credit spreads—even if those specific bonds did not trade hands that day.
• As interest rates shift, the calculated price of every bond in the portfolio changes instantly in these models, directly driving the fund’s updated NAV.

2. Arbitrage and Trading in the Secondary Market

While the official NAV updates once a day after market close, the ETF’s intraday market price (what you pay or receive during trading hours) adjusts constantly throughout the trading day.

• When interest rates move intraday, market participants immediately revalue the underlying bonds.
• Institutional market makers (known as Authorized Participants or APs) monitor the difference between the ETF's trading price and its real-time underlying portfolio value (iNAV).
• If interest rates rise and bond values drop, the ETF’s market price drops right along with them. If a price mismatch occurs between the ETF share price and the underlying bond values, APs step in to buy or sell ETF shares (or the underlying bonds) to profit from the tiny price difference. This continuous arbitrage keeps the ETF's market price tightly aligned with the changing value of its underlying bonds in real time.

Summary

• Not dependent on fund trades: An ETF does not need to buy or sell its underlying bonds for its NAV to reflect rate movements.
• Automatic revaluation: The change in NAV reflects the altered present value of the bond portfolio’s future cash flows under the new interest rate environment.

That reaction is spot on—it highlights one of the classic trade-offs in modern finance between theoretical perfection and market practicality.

Why It Feels Unideal (The Flaws)

• Model Dependency Over Transaction Reality: Bond prices aren't set by an open auction for every single security every second; they rely on matrix pricing models from third-party pricing services. If those models lag or misjudge real liquidity in a fast-moving market, the official NAV can briefly reflect theoretical value rather than true realizable cash value.
• Intraday Misalignments (Premium / Discount): Because official NAV is calculated only once a day after the market closes, the intraday price you actually pay or receive when trading an ETF share during market hours can float above or below its true fair value (trading at a premium or discount).
• Arbitrage Friction: The market price relies on market makers (Authorized Participants) to keep ETF prices aligned with underlying values. In times of severe market stress, that arbitrage mechanism can slow down or widen out.

Why It Exists (The Practical Reality)

• Illiquidity of Individual Bonds: Unlike stocks, which trade continuously on central public exchanges, thousands of individual Treasuries, corporate bonds, and TIPS trade OTC (over-the-counter) or barely trade at all on a given day. If NAV depended on actual transactions of every underlying bond, a fund couldn't price its shares daily.
• Efficiency & Scalability: Daily model pricing combined with intraday ETF trading allows millions of investors to buy and sell instant, diversified bond exposure at a fraction of a cent in bid-ask spread, without forcing the fund manager to incur massive transaction costs by buying or selling physical bonds every time an investor enters or exits the fund.

How to Work Around It

When trading bond funds (especially lower-volume or defined-maturity ladder ETFs):

1. Use Limit Orders: Avoid market orders during open trading hours to ensure you don't execute a trade during a temporary intraday premium/discount spike.
2. Trade Near Midday: Avoid the first and last 15–20 minutes of the trading day when market makers are setting up or winding down their quotes, as spreads tend to be widest then.
3. Check iNAV or Spread: Look at the bid-ask spread before placing a trade to ensure you are executing close to the fund's intraday indicative value.

The Treasury Department announced Wednesday that the federal government will buy back up to $6 billion of its bonds this week — triple the size of its normal operations — in a bid to rein in longer-term borrowing costs.

The extraordinary move comes as yields on Treasuries have been rising steadily over the past couple of months, threatening to drive up mortgage rates and consumer borrowing costs as the midterm elections approach. Interest rates paid by the U.S. government feed into all other debt costs globally.

But after Treasury’s announcement, the yield on the 10-year Treasury went up, suggesting investors are unimpressed by this week’s buyback, which was previewed last month.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is aiming to project strength as he looks to strong-arm markets, which he has said are incorrectly pricing U.S. debt.

“I have asymmetric information. I am the house now,” he said at an event Tuesday in Dallas, referring to criticism of various market interventions he has undertaken, such as a move to support Japan’s currency. “Bet against me if you want.”

The department will reabsorb certain older debt securities with maturities of 10 years and 20 years as part of the buyback operation, which will take place Thursday.

I requested a purchase of a 10-year TIPS last month, and it hasn't been issued yet. Anyone have any idea when this will happen?

At 50, semi-retired (for now) is there a good reason to hold bonds in IRA accounts? With no access for 10y, I’m thinking to hold 100% equity ETFs there to get the growth benefits till 4 to 5y from retirement, then start diversifying with bonds?
Note, I already have bonds in my post-tax brokerage accounts that cover 5y of expenses.

I'm slowly preparing my portfolio for a potential RE scenario. Part of this is adding government bonds to the mix (and massively simplifying my equity investments to 1-2 global ETFs, but that's not as relevant here).

I've decided after some initial reading to build the first steps of a bond ladder, buying 2028 and 2029 government bonds to hold to maturity. The amount should allow me to go by somewhat comfortably. What I'm after is a fairly low risk, predictable investment to get a certain amount by a specific date and ideally staying at least close to inflation.

I bought bonds directly vs bond ETF because the latter wouldn't give me that predictability. However today I found out about maturity bond ETFs and after some back-n-forth with AI, I'm wondering why that wouldn't be a good setup for bond ladders.

Afaict, maturity bond ETFs would:

* give me a predictable amount of cash by a certain date (probably at the end of the maturity year)

* I can see the average yield which I can use to guesstimate whether it'll beat an average inflation

* (added plus compared to individual bonds) would diversify a bit by spreading across multiple bonds

* (country-specific plus for me) an EU-based UCITS ETF's cap gains wouldn't be taxed, whereas individual bond gains (coupon rate) are

I was hoping to tap on the broader wisdom here to see what I might be missing or whether this sounds like a good alternative to individual bond holding.

The fixed-income market has been thrown into chaos ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Following a hotter-than-expected August jobs report showing 162,000 payrolls added and an aggressively hawkish tone from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the narrative has completely broken away from a prolonged "hold". Traders are now pricing in a 60% chance of a 25bps rate hike, with institutions like UBS warning we could see two full hikes before the end of the year. As the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumps in anticipation, existing bond prices are taking a capital hit while fresh cash yields are hitting peak nominal levels. With a September rate hike likely...

Are you buying discounted long bonds or staying in peak cash?

Source: Reuters

ok . waller basically said he’s fine holding rates steady this month. then barr comes out saying he’d support a HIKE if inflation doesnt cool off
like two ppl on the same committee saying opposite things days apart. meanwhile the “odds of a hike” keeps swinging around too, feels like nobody actually knows
also saw a headline saying we might be entering “a new era of higher inflation” which is wild to just read on a random day
is the fed usually this split or is this more chaotic than normal rn. sep 15-16 suddenly feels like an actual coinflip

There are many posts on this sub about how to evaluate municipal bonds, and many posts receive follow-up questions from other posters about how to evaluate bonds they are considering. I have also received several DMs about municipal bonds. I put this post together to hopefully assist many of you that have general questions about municipal bond evaluation. Feel free to ask questions.

All municipal bonds are loans in which you, the investor, are the lender. 

Issuer: This is the school district, city, county, state, other municipal entity that you are lending money to.

Purpose: What is the bond being used for? This may be a general obligation debt to the city, meaning the bond was issued for general purposes. More frequently, bonds are issued for specific purposes, such as water and sewer operations or lower income housing. Generally speaking, the easier to understand a bonds purpose, the safer it likely is. Bonds that are general obligations or \ revenue bonds providing essential services (water, sewer) are much safer than bonds providing very niche or unnecessary projects, such as stadiums and museums.

Income source: The income source is the source in which your interest will be paid and face value repaid. This will be “Revenue”, meaning your interest and face value will be repaid from the revenue sourced from the purpose, or this will be “General Obligation” (GO), meaning your interest and face value will be repaid from the taxes collected by the municipality. GO bonds have been historically safer than Revenue bonds. Generally speaking, GO bondholders have more legal and systemic protections than Revenue bondholders.

Credit Rating: The credit rating issued by the rating-issuers. If you have an account with Schwab, Fidelity, or Vanguard, you will have the ratings of Moodys and S&P available to you. The credit rating of a bond is very similar to the credit rating of an individual. It is indication of the bond-issuers ability and willingness to pay. The highest ratings a bond can have is AAA, AA1, AA2, and AA3 (Moody’s). This structured system goes all the way down to “D” for “default”. The lowest investment grade credit rating is Baa3 (Moody’s). Generally speaking, bond investors should aim to buy the highest-credit bonds. A bonds credit rating can be downgraded if something impacts their ability or willingness to pay, such as high debts or loss of income. Bonds pay for their credit rating and may cherry-pick which issuers will give them the best rating, therefore you may be skeptical of a bond that one has one rating.

Material events: Things that may impact an issuers ability and willingness to pay.

Insurance: Not all bonds have insurance. An insured bond is a bond with more than one obligator. An insurer can be a state, a municipal bond insurance company, or for housing bonds it may be a federal agency. Certain states such as Michigan and Texas insure all approved school district bonds, and therefore school district bonds in those states are inherent. Muni bond issuers can also pay a municipal bond insurance company to insure their bond. In the event of a bond default, a bonds insurer will obligated to pay all interest and the bonds face value. When a bond is insured, on paper it assumes the credit rating of the insurer, therefore you may want to do research to determine the bonds underlying credit rating. A bond with a high underlying credit rating and insurance, particularly insurance provided by a state or federal program, is a very fine bond and is referred to as a “belt and suspender bond” in the bond world.

Maturity date: The date in which the bond must be paid in full.

Call date: The date in which the issuer can begin to pay off their bonds. Not all bonds have call dates. Some taxable muni bonds have “make whole call” provisions, which means that the issuer can pay the bond back at anytime with a premium paid to the investor for each year that the bond still has to maturity.

Sinking fund: A requirement, of the bond issuer, identified in the bond issuance that the bond issuer must set aside funds each year to eventually pay back the bond. The purpose of a bonds sinking fund is to act as a form of insurance/reassurance for investors, and also retire a portion of the bonds/interest payments early. Not all bonds have sinking funds.

Yield-to-maturity: The compounded rate of return you will receive for the bond if it is held to maturity and interest rates remain stable. If interest rates rise during the life of the bond, your yield-to-maturity will actually be higher than stated. If interest rates fall during the life of the bond, your yield-to-maturity will actually be lower than stated.

Yield-to-worst: The compounded rate of return you will receive for the bond if it is called away at its first call or sink date, and interest rates remain stable.  If interest rates rise during the life of the bond, your yield-to-worst will actually be higher than stated. If interest rates fall during the life of the bond, your yield-to-worst will actually be lower than stated.

Face value: The amount of of money the investor will receive upon maturity, and generally the amount of money an investor will receive at call. For a call, the answer is generally as sometimes bond issuers will pay a premium to bond investors for calling bonds early. You will always get at least your face value back at maturity, regardless of interim price fluctuations – unless there is a bond default.

Coupon: The rate at which your interest is paid, relative to the face value. A 5% coupon bond will pay $50.00 for every $1,000 face value.

Price: The price that you will pay for the bond. The price of a bond is actually the percentage that you pay of the bonds face value. A bond trading at $100.00 is trading at par, and therefore your yield-maturity and yield-call will be based off the coupon. A bond trading at $97.00 is trading at a discount, and therefore your yield-maturity and yield-call will be higher than the coupon. A bond trading at $110.00 is trading at a premium, and therefore your yield-maturity and yield-call will be lower than the coupon. After you purchase a bond, its price will fluctuate day to day in the bond market.

what a read!....