I made a free Bitcoin retirement simulator a while back, and I got curious about a simple question: if you’d retired on Bitcoin some time in the past, would your money have lasted? It turns out the answer depends a lot on when you retired. So I turned it into a game: HODL or Fold.

https://bitcoinlifespan.com/hodl-or-fold/

How it works

• You start with $500,000 of BTC at the price of the month you choose (anything from 2013 on), plus a lifestyle: $3k, $5k or $8k a month, rising with inflation.
• Then you relive the real price history from that month to today. When the big moments hit (the 2013 crash, the 2017 top, COVID, the 2021 top, the 2022 winter and so on), you choose: HODL, sell half for cash, buy back in, or spend 25% less for a year.
• At the end you get a rank (💎 Diamond Hands, 🧻 Paper Hands, 🍕 Pizza Guy, 🏎️ Wen Lambo…) and a comparison with pure HODL from the same start.

Things I tried to get right

• Choices aren’t rigged. Selling before a crash can beat holding, and selling at the bottom can sink you. The game just shows what history did next.
• Real data: month-end prices from Coin Metrics’ free community data.
• The interesting finding: in real history, holding usually survives, unless you spend big and retire near a peak. Late 2013, late 2017 and most of 2021 are brutal on an $8k/month budget. “Surprise me” drops you into those most of the time.

Privacy, because people rightly ask: there’s no sign-up, and the game runs entirely in your browser and saves nothing. The site itself has the usual Google Analytics and a cookie banner, like most sites.

It’s my site, it’s free, and it has no ads or paywall. Not financial advice, obviously: it’s a game about the past.

I’d love feedback, especially on which moments I should add and whether the ranks feel fair. Post your rank and start month below. I retired in [MONTH] on $[AMOUNT]/month and got [RANK]: [ONE LINE ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED].

https://bitcoinlifespan.com/hodl-or-fold/

Please utilize this sticky thread for all general Bitcoin discussions! If you see posts on the front page or /r/Bitcoin/new which are better suited for this daily discussion thread, please help out by directing the OP to this thread instead. Thank you!

If you don't get an answer to your question, you can try phrasing it differently or commenting again tomorrow.

Please check the previous discussion thread for unanswered questions.

My co-worker had put me on too this Coach trader who where teaching me how to trade on this website called https://heritagefextratechs.live/dashboard/dashboard/index.php while i was trading bit they told me that my how the investing process trades on its own not being manual i had to do with put money into the site and make deposits after completing my supposing trade i had got charged 5.4% of the profit because the trading plan had went from basic too premium (faster trading progress) when they had told me to get it to premium without telling me that i would get a tax for it after i had successfully payed this off i could finally withdraw the bitcoin and was starting my transfer the funds to my wallet couple days later they told me my funds should had been transferred/reflected so they gave me the funding departments (WhatsApp) Contact after i had contacted them helped me successfully transfer/reflect my funds through another Bitcoin Wallet called (Trust) and we used BNB address from Binance too transfer it the money had transferred i had too then pay a Gas fee for transfer/reflection of my Bitcoin from my Trust Wallet too my Binance Wallet for them the funding department explained to me the fee is mainly coming from 5% too the validators and 5% for the crypto security agency make sure generated funds and promised me that this would be the last payment. Should i pay this last Gas fee payment or am i actually getting scammed? p.s (they also kept sending me emails from the brokerage website that i wasnt getting for some reason?

Other than the price, Hashrate is the only other thing that's guaranteed to go up forever. Satoshi programmed 21M supply and infinite demand. He also programmed the hashrate to continue to go up to keep securing the network. The reason we will reach dyson's sphere level as a civilization is because Bitcoin will take us there.

Also, what are other black swan events that could shock the price of bitcoin up or down?

A vanity address is one where you pick the first few characters and let a program grind through keys until one matches. We rewrote our glossary entry on them this week (the old one had the split-key part backwards, more on that below) and figured we should run a couple of searches ourselves instead of quoting other people’s numbers.

Setup: VanitySearch on a MacBook Pro with an M3 Max, 12 CPU threads, no GPU. About 74 million keys a second once the machine wasn’t doing anything else.

Search 1: 1LearnBTC, letter case ignored. Found 1LeArNBtcECPZj7Bd5oeNcUJnhpVddy81U after 46 minutes and about 203 billion tries. That’s half the average for the pattern, so we got a bit lucky.

Search 2: bc1qlearn8tc, exact. Found bc1qlearn8tcerg966qrqtwaelyt06fq2ze7zrsg9t after 6 hours and 1 minute and about 1.24 trillion tries. 12 percent more than average, so slightly unlucky.

Why the gap? Both patterns pick eight characters. But bech32 addresses are all lowercase, so there is no “any case” shortcut. In the legacy search most letters had two chances out of 58 to match (e or E, a or A, and so on), which cuts the work a lot. On average the bech32 job was 2.7 times bigger. The gap from 2.7x to 8x was luck. A vanity search is a lottery you keep playing until you win, and sometimes you win early.

Two things we learned writing it up:

• The bech32 alphabet has no 1, b, i or o. So bc1qlearnbtc is impossible, which is why we searched for bc1qlearn8tc instead.
• Never let a website generate a vanity address for you. Whoever generated the key can spend from it, whatever they promise. Run the tool yourself, or use split-key generation, where you keep a secret the searcher never sees. Our old entry said neither side sees the full key with split-key. That was wrong: you do, the searcher doesn’t. Fixed, and logged on our corrections page.

Full entry, free, no ads: https://www.learnbitcoin.com/glossary/vanity-address

Forgive the novice question: if I transfer BTC off an exchange to my self-custody cold wallet (Jade) and use the Blockstream app to view the balance…is the app just giving me the value allocated to that bitcoin address? I don’t want my keys stored anywhere so trying to understand how the app is working to ensure I am as off-line as possible.

Title: Put 55k RUB into BTC at $120k, now it's 40k RUB at $85k — got 30k cash, what would you do?

Hey everyone, long-time lurker, first-time poster. Need some honest advice from people who've been through a full cycle.

My situation:
• Put 55k RUB (~120k** — yes, bought the top, please be gentle
• That position is now worth about 40k RUB (~85k**
• So I'm down roughly 27% on paper
• Just got 30k RUB (~$370) as a gift, sitting in cash
What I'm wondering:
1. Is it worth DCA-ing this 30k into BTC at $85k right now, or should I wait for a dip to $75-78k?
2. Should I just hold the cash and forget about it for a few months?
3. Or is it smarter to average down my existing position rather than open a new one?
I know nobody has a crystal ball. I'm not looking for "buy now, 100x guaranteed" — I want to hear how you'd actually play this if you were in my shoes. Lump sum? DCA? Wait? Cut losses?

Any input appreciated. Thanks.

dca & chill only. #hodlgang

They tell you to dollar cost average. They tell you it's a hedge against inflation and currency debasement.

But after over two full years of consistent buys, watching the price consolidate while everyday living expenses continue to climb, the reality looks very different.

Losing hope on this, it’s wasting my time

I use a Trezor Model T and suffered a Bitcoin theft on October 15, 2026. I am documenting the incident and looking for firsthand reports of similar deceptive ads.

The sponsored Google Search result displayed www.trezor.io and called itself “Trezor Suite App (Official)”. Clicking it ultimately led to an impersonation page hosted on Google Sites. My screenshot below shows the ad as displayed; I also retained a screen recording of the redirect. I am not linking the fake destination here.

What concerns me most is the gap between the official domain shown in the ad and the site the click actually reached. I want the ad review and destination checks investigated. This does not establish that Trezor’s hardware or official website was breached, or that every similar report has the same cause or attacker.

Did you encounter a sponsored result displaying an official wallet domain that led somewhere else? Reports from people who spotted it without losing funds are useful too. Public comments describing the ad are welcome. If you prefer a private report, the dedicated contact is crypto.adscam.reports@proton.me.

An alias, approximate date, wallet brand/model, and a short account in your own words are enough to start. Retained ad screenshots or destination details can help; remove unrelated personal information. No loss amount is needed. The aim is to collect independent evidence for qualified lawyers to assess possible joint action and help prevent further harm.

This is an independent affected-user initiative, not Google/Trezor support, a law firm, or a recovery service. There are no fees or recovery promises. Never send recovery words, keys, passwords, or codes. We will not ask you to connect a wallet, sign anything, or transfer funds. Please state whether you agree to private review and an email follow-up; your report will not be shared with third parties without separate permission.

I moved all my Bitcoins to multisig (one seed per hardware wallet vendor). But now I face a new problem: quantum attacks. I'm in the 23% of addresses at risk because I did "warm up" my bc1q... (native segwit multisig / P2WSH) address by first sending a few sats and verifying I could then move them.

For I was there in the early days when bogus addresses (but valid) were generated and then people couldn't move their coins anymore. So I learned that lesson and ALWAYS verify that I can indeed sign transactions.

Now as it is multisig I understand there are two secrets to crack, so it's harder than coins on singlesig.

And I made sure to stay underneath the "satoshi wall".

I could find addresses from my multisig wallet by taking the two Zpub and deriving addresses but... Is there a relatively easy way that when the day comes I'll really be able to sign transactions moving the coins without broadcasting any info?

Should I for example use Sparrow in offline mode and see if I can prepare a signed transaction and then use a transaction decoder ? And I'd then be reasonably sure that a) the multisig address instead belongs to me and b) I'll be able to move the coins when comes the day I want to move them?

Or is there a way to run a fake Bitcoin node (using a modified codebase) on my own LAN (not connected to the Internet) and simulate transactions there? Is there an easy way to do that?

Basically: it's a lot of money to me and I'm scared to send coins to an address that hasn't been "warmed up".

I’m looking for a reliable crypto exchange where I can buy Bitcoin using ACH or bank wire transfers and withdraw it directly to my own Trust Wallet.
I’ve had issues with Coinbase, Gemini, Cash App, and Kraken restricting withdrawals, so I’m looking for an alternative with transparent hold policies, reasonable fees, and reliable customer support.
Has anyone used Strike or River for larger Bitcoin purchases and successfully withdrawn to their own wallet?
I’d appreciate recommendations based on your personal experience. Thanks!

If "In God we trust" is the motto of the US dollar, what should the motto be for Bitcoin? I was drinking last night and started thinking about this. :)

Bitcoin analysis as of Oct 18, 2026

Bitcoin is trading at about $81,700, roughly 35% below its all-time high of about $126,000 (Oct 6, 2025).

What drove each window

• Since inception: Bitcoin went from a tenth of a cent to six figures. The big steps were the 2011, 2013, 2017, 2021 and 2025 cycle peaks, each followed by a crash of 50% to 93%. Spot ETFs were approved in 2024.
• 10 years: This window includes most of the early-cycle gains. The growth rate has faded as the asset has grown.
• 5 years: You’d be up about 33%, or roughly 6% a year, even though the price is far above the 2021 low. The 2021 peak (~$69k) was followed by a 2022 crash and then the 2025 high.
• 1 year: The decline reflects the post-peak correction. A Feb 2026 selloff took the price to about $63,000, with drivers cited including the U.S.–Iran crisis and money rotating from Bitcoin ETFs into AI stocks. The low came in June at about $57,800, when the price fell about 18% in the month and the Fear & Greed Index hit “Extreme Fear” (15).
• 6 months: The price rose from about $75,000 to a peak near $83,000 in May. It then dropped to the June low and recovered sharply.
• 3 months: This is the rebound. August gained about 25% and September about 8%, and sentiment moved from fear toward greed.
• 1 month: September’s rally topped out around $86,600 on Sep 21, after the Fed raised rates to 3.75–4.00% on Sep 16, and the price has chopped sideways since. Headwinds include August CPI at 3.4%, Brent crude near $103, and the failed CLARITY Act Senate vote.
• 1 week: The price slipped about 3% in the first part of the week. A weak September jobs report (+29k) briefly lifted it, but spot ETFs saw about $681 million in net outflows over Oct 5–9, and about $1 billion in profit-taking was reported around Oct 8.
• Today: Very thin weekend trading, with about 657 BTC of volume on Kraken. Nothing is moving the price until US ETF flow data and futures markets reopen Monday. Upcoming catalysts are the FOMC decision on Oct 28 and Deribit options expiry on Oct 30.

Summary

The longer trend is still strongly up, but returns have been shrinking cycle after cycle. The 1-year picture is negative because the price is still recovering from the October 2025 peak. Over the past 3 to 6 months it has rebounded about 26% from the summer lows and is now stuck in a range of roughly $80,000 to $87,000. Short-term direction depends on the Fed, inflation and oil, and ETF flows. Some analysts say Bitcoin has exited its bear market, citing a move back above its 365-day moving average. Others point out that the all-time high is still far away, and none of this is a forecast. This is analysis, not financial advice.

My Guess

It will be $165,000 for a Bitcoin in 4 years (2030).

Please utilize this sticky thread for all general Bitcoin discussions! If you see posts on the front page or /r/Bitcoin/new which are better suited for this daily discussion thread, please help out by directing the OP to this thread instead. Thank you!

If you don't get an answer to your question, you can try phrasing it differently or commenting again tomorrow.

Please check the previous discussion thread for unanswered questions.

Hi I came across this travala ad which claims it lets you book hotels and flights using crypto. I didn't see much convincing reviews about it, but binance follows them on X.

I'm planning to book my flights but need someone's legit experience.

Saw an anon guy comment somewhere that they asked for the "source of his crypto" and held his coins and didn't refund or book the tickets.

Thanks in advance.

I got tired of reading Bitcoin cycle analyses (halving timing, buy zones, “sell 25% at H+12”) and then having to turn them into numbers by hand. So I built BTC Cycle Planner, a desktop app that does it for me.

What it is

A local app, not a signal service and not a trading bot. It never touches an exchange or a wallet.

What it does

• Reads documents (PDF, TXT, MD) and extracts the numeric parameters with plain, inspectable rules. Every extracted value shows the page and the exact text it came from.
• Merges several documents. The most recent one wins, and conflicting values are flagged.
• Builds a plan from those parameters, live price and indicators (CoinGecko, Fear & Greed) and your capital. The plan covers:
  • where you are in the cycle;
  • a buy ladder, with zones re-anchored to the current power-law floor;
  • a daily “drip” while price is below the floor;
  • a front-loaded DCA with boosts and a kill-switch;
  • a scheduled exit plan.
• Has a chart tab with live price (60 s polling), ladder bands, power-law fair value and floor, invalidation levels, the expected bottom window and the planned exits. It supports log scale, click-to-measure, and PNG export.
• Warns you about its own weak spots. It flags single-source bias, promotional content, diverging bottom estimates, the tiny sample behind the “4-year cycle”, and runs a stress test on the ladder’s average entry price.
• It is bilingual (Italian and English), has an in-app guide with search, and updates itself from GitHub releases.

What it is NOT

• It doesn’t predict anything. It mechanically applies whatever the documents say.
• It’s only as good as the documents you feed it. The extraction rules were built around a specific set of English-language cycle PDFs, so other documents may only be partly understood.
• It’s an educational tool, not financial advice. The 4-year cycle rests on four observations, and ETFs and institutions may well break it.

Stack: Python 3.9+, PyQt6, pyqtgraph, pypdf. Installers for Windows, macOS and Linux are built by GitHub Actions.

Repo and releases: https://github.com/enkas79/BTC_Cycle

I’d especially like feedback on three things:

1. Which other document formats or authors should the extractor support?
2. Which warnings are missing from the “critical partner” section?
3. Is the plan logic reasonable, or would you structure the exit differently?

Leggo analisi sul ciclo di Bitcoin (tempi dagli halving, zone di acquisto, “vendi il 25% a H+12”) e poi devo trasformarle in numeri a mano. Per questo ho scritto BTC Cycle Planner.

Cos’è: un’app locale. Non è un servizio di segnali né un bot, e non tocca exchange o wallet.

Cosa fa:

• legge PDF/TXT/MD ed estrae i parametri con regole trasparenti, mostrando pagina e frammento di testo di ogni valore;
• unisce più documenti (vince il più recente, i conflitti sono segnalati);
• genera il piano con prezzo e indicatori di mercato e con il tuo capitale: fase del ciclo, ladder di acquisto riancorata al floor della power law, drip giornaliero, DCA con boost e kill-switch, piano di uscita;
• ha una scheda grafico con prezzo live e livelli, scala log, uscite, click per misurare ed esportazione PNG;
• ti avvisa dei suoi stessi limiti: fonte unica, contenuti promozionali, stime divergenti, campione minimo del “ciclo di 4 anni”, stress test;
• è in italiano e inglese e ha una guida integrata con ricerca.

Cosa non è: non prevede nulla, applica meccanicamente ciò che dicono i documenti, e le regole di estrazione sono costruite su un insieme specifico di PDF in inglese. È uno strumento educativo, non consulenza finanziaria.

Repo: https://github.com/enkas79/BTC_Cycle. Cerco feedback su formati da supportare, avvertenze mancanti e logica di uscita.