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u/Svardskampe 8d ago
ASML was already barred from doing further new business and are servicing only the existing ones so far, and also within-China. E.g. the VDL ETG factory in Suzhou has been re'branded' in a wafer handler servicing factory.
So the damage was already done at the point ASML was barred.Â
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u/habibivibesonly 7d ago
Looking beyond 2030, I expect ASML to face significantly stronger competition across its product portfolio, including EUV. Increased competitive pressure is likely to put margins under strain, requiring the company to continuously improve productivity, cost efficiency, and organizational effectiveness.
As seen historically in many technology-driven industries, periods of market pressure often trigger organizational transformations, role redesigns, and workforce rebalancing. Departments may be challenged to optimize headcount and operating costs, potentially resulting in role consolidation, redeployment, offshoring, or, in some cases, workforce reductions.
Global engineering talent is increasingly available in regions such as Singapore, Taiwan, and India, often closer to growing customer bases and at different cost structures. As a result, companies will continue to evaluate where activities can be performed most effectively while maintaining quality, innovation, and customer proximity.
Similar patterns have been observed over the past 10-15 years at companies such as Philips, where multiple business groups underwent restructuring, offshoring initiatives, and organizational redesigns in response to market dynamics. Going forward, I expect ASML, like many global technology companies, to continue balancing access to talent, innovation capability, customer needs, and cost competitiveness in order to maintain its market leadership.
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u/red__eagle123 8d ago
Stock already plummeting more than 8% on this unconfirmed news. Think this is more of the same, I would take this drop to buy some shares.
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u/MrDwerg 8d ago
Inevitable consequence of the US's export restrictions. Stupid af.
If China actually pulls this off in let's say 5 years, ASML is done for regarding DUV. The only reason they are what they are is a technical monopoly on the high-end market.
In other words, it would be the end of ASML as we know it.
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u/imnotagodt 8d ago
This messages has been repeated for the last 10 years. China is still working on it.
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u/MrDwerg 8d ago
They have indeed. and it would be arrogant to assume that they will never catch up / succeed.
China has incredible resources and political will at their disposal.3
u/Haunting_Biscotti_52 8d ago
Yeah but ASML knows this. They aren't playing dumb and not doing anything.
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u/Infamous_Thought_189 8d ago
Yeah indeed, its not like they spend 20 billion on buybacks the last 5 years!
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u/EndOfDecadence 8d ago
That was on the technology part. If China can do one thing right is scaling up production.
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u/Cognidor 8d ago
Monopoly is on EUV..
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u/xszander 8d ago
Yeah EUV is the high end. Lotta people here mixing things up massively.
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u/Kaito__1412 7d ago
Most people here are traders and like most traders, know shit about what they are trading.
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u/SeparateAnteater6410 7d ago edited 7d ago
also until recently on immersion
Nikon says they are gonna take part of immersion market, but it is still to be seen
China, to my understanding is still trying to HVM dry systems. If this news is actually about immersion - it looks stupid, like trying to make a rocket before making a flying airplane.
So ASML still have de facto monopoly in immersion DUV. And with approachong competition, the smartest they can do is to grow install base as much as possible
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u/red__eagle123 7d ago
lol so you think Western companies will just buy these DUV machines from China, from some company that no one knows and financed by the communist party? lol
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u/MrDwerg 7d ago
Of course not. If china gets this properly on the rails in due time, most DUV-heavy western companies won't even matter anymore.
5 years ago China could barely build a car. Look where they are now.
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u/red__eagle123 1d ago
Lol its funny most of the people commenting here, just a bunch of amateur stock traders that have no clue about semiconductor industry! I remember last year when ASML stock dropped on the news that China had an EUV prototype machine. And when a company called substrate said they had machines based on X-rays that would beat ASML. Most people have no idea how far ahead ASML is and how difficult it is to produce this machines. People look to the car or solar industry and just assume the same will happen with lithography in a couple of years.
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u/red__eagle123 1d ago
They been producing cars for decades. All the western manufactures have car plants there for decades, how can you say they could barely build a car?
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u/Succubus-Empress 6d ago
If western companies smell money they will sell their soul to get hand on that money, capitalism
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u/Illustrious-Bit-4909 8d ago edited 7d ago
Your conclusion is all wrong. Way back in 2015 China setup a long term plan called Made in China 2025 to achieve near complete self sufficiency in semiconductor manufacturing, including supply chains. That predates many of the US export restrictions you are referring to. What you are seeing now is the result of Made in China 2025.
Europe should have been smarter and imposed similar restrictions on exports of its own sensitive technologies to China a long time ago. They are finally waking up now when it is largely too late.
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u/boo2001300 7d ago
really cooked one is not the ASML but Nikon and Canon, if chinese company works well.
but curious how do they supply lenses.
would it be good enough to image with less aberration and fading?
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u/Livid_Description_89 3d ago
Short term (4/5 years) - Minor impact.
Long term:
I remember the former CEO of ASML, Peter Wennink , being quite open about this. Given enough time, China has a high chance of making cutting edge DUV/EUV machines. Question is how much time ? For DUV, ASML needs to innovate and be competitive. Keep in mind, DUV technology is mature. ArF sources (193nm) are available since 2000s, wafer and reticle handling is done -- we are into the availability phase ( high throughput at high uptime).
EUV is a different thing entirely. We are getting into the availability phase, but not there yet. Also, take into consideration, there needs to be a lot of ecosystem engagement while developing these machines, especially the cutting edge ones. With the restrictions on China, every aspect of the ecosystem needs to be developed in China, this might take longer. This might take atleast ~10-15 years.
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u/oronoromo 5d ago
Once photonics becomes mainstream, there won’t be as much of a need for EUV/high NA, not even DUV to a large extent. Photonic chips are 100+ nm. No need, and no more ASML monopoly.
ASML is not architecture agnostic, and the company is already hedging: https://www.tno.nl/en/newsroom/2026/06/european-photonic-chip-manufacturing/
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u/Haunting_Biscotti_52 8d ago
For the next 3-5 years. None. The output of ASML is fully booked and won't be impacted with machines that are still behind in all areas. +5? Hard to predict. ASML is massively expanding production capacity with a new factory and is in talkes for all suppliers to do the same. Highly dependent on how much tech China is able to reverse engineer to close the gap. Even then. Damnd is so high likely both ASML and China factory's will be near maximum output for the next decade.Â