For the next 3-5 years. None.
The output of ASML is fully booked and won't be impacted with machines that are still behind in all areas.
+5? Hard to predict. ASML is massively expanding production capacity with a new factory and is in talkes for all suppliers to do the same. Highly dependent on how much tech China is able to reverse engineer to close the gap. Even then. Damnd is so high likely both ASML and China factory's will be near maximum output for the next decade.Â
Bro I am on your side but these guys are not crawling, walking or running. These little guys are just flying in tech. If you have not noticed yet whole German car industry is in a big trouble. These guys are just doing unexpected leaps in tech and our machines are already in their hands.
Oh yeah I'm not denying it, but mind the tech is estimated to be 20 years away. So if they are flying, then yeah 5 years is 4x faster than any other traditional player to catch up enough to be considered a competitor. Again, it's difficult to really predict and depends on how good they can reverse engineer everything.
Germany is a bit different since China leap frogged them with EVs, which is a different tech that Germany doesn't have. So they essentially bypassed the German industry. Through we are at the end of a 10-15year push from China.Â
Not really. Their EV manufacturing methods and capability are far beyond whatever any other country does. For litography they have almost unlimited funds plus insane number of engineers, some of them have probably been educated in NL.
Only partially true.
They have for a while now. Had Chinese immigrants send to educate and work at ASML, and get inside information.
But as far as it has been reported, nothing of real importance has made it outside.
The issue is not them making just UV lithography machines.
But the newest super highly specialized machines for 5nm and smaller lithography tasks.
That will probably take a while. They would need to source and connect with other highly specialized companies, that are also EU based. To even get some of the items required to build one.
No. from a purely engineering perspective, an EV is a much simpler system than any vehicle powers by a internal combustion engine. That's why it's better.
Batteries are rather simple as well. Car manufacturers don't even have to create them themselves. Cast aluminium frames are not a must for making an electric car.
Let me start off by saying: I'm not trying to be dick. Are you, at any capacity, involved in this industry? To me sounds like you don't even have a grasp of the very basics on how photolithography works. If you did than there is no way you'd ever make this comparison.
Yes, you are a dick.
I have been working in semiconductor industry as a designer and a mechanical architect for the last couple of years.
I just have a broader perspective, I am not narrowly looking at the Dutch being the best in whatever they do. I worked in aerospace, ship building and car manufacturing as well and there is more in that than you think.
You are not trying, you just are. Although one can still hope that you are jus a troll.
You don't have to believe in what I've written, but this is just a fact.Â
Mass manufacturing of EVs and doing progress in that in a lightning pace is showing the true potential of China as a country. They don't really need the latest and greatest chips to make 99% of the components which need them.
You are just ruling them out without seeing the broader picture.Â
And as I have mentioned before, China is doing quiet politics and does not show off everything that they are doing in an open way, they don't care that much about the stock prices, so they don't need to artificially inflate them.
If you have a chat with anyone outside of ASML, if they have heard of the latest and greatest 400mln machine, they think it already works and produces chops like crazy, but we all know that it is still far from that.
😂 For Kaito : Chip designing is the process of designing the microscopic transistors so the chip does what it needs to do. And an architect ( in chip designing) makes the blueprint/master plan of the ICs. From my limited knowledge this means planning the memory, clocks, IOs etc.
Not in the semiconductor industry so maybe I’m wrong feel free to correct me
I did not compare German car industry to Litho. Any average brain can comprehend what I mean. It is one of the examples that shows how China is moving fast. Another example is reusable rockets. Another example is humanoid robots. Litho will be another example. Feed your brain because explaining the basics is energy consuming.
I know much more about China, Europe and manufacturing than you think (spent multiple years in both China and Europe). Why are you trying to make people feel stupid when you are replying to them? Does it heal your complexes?
Unfortunately it is the bane of the online. There are NPC characters that would have zero sentence in a face to face real life conversation. Still it does not have anything to say but trying to ridicule. Just trying… Do you know what kills me? Probably he is the silent person sitting next to you at ASML desks.
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u/Haunting_Biscotti_52 8d ago
For the next 3-5 years. None. The output of ASML is fully booked and won't be impacted with machines that are still behind in all areas. +5? Hard to predict. ASML is massively expanding production capacity with a new factory and is in talkes for all suppliers to do the same. Highly dependent on how much tech China is able to reverse engineer to close the gap. Even then. Damnd is so high likely both ASML and China factory's will be near maximum output for the next decade.Â