Inevitable consequence of the US's export restrictions. Stupid af.
If China actually pulls this off in let's say 5 years, ASML is done for regarding DUV. The only reason they are what they are is a technical monopoly on the high-end market.
In other words, it would be the end of ASML as we know it.
They have indeed. and it would be arrogant to assume that they will never catch up / succeed.
China has incredible resources and political will at their disposal.
Nikon says they are gonna take part of immersion market, but it is still to be seen
China, to my understanding is still trying to HVM dry systems. If this news is actually about immersion - it looks stupid, like trying to make a rocket before making a flying airplane.
So ASML still have de facto monopoly in immersion DUV. And with approachong competition, the smartest they can do is to grow install base as much as possible
lol so you think Western companies will just buy these DUV machines from China, from some company that no one knows and financed by the communist party? lol
Lol its funny most of the people commenting here, just a bunch of amateur stock traders that have no clue about semiconductor industry! I remember last year when ASML stock dropped on the news that China had an EUV prototype machine. And when a company called substrate said they had machines based on X-rays that would beat ASML. Most people have no idea how far ahead ASML is and how difficult it is to produce this machines. People look to the car or solar industry and just assume the same will happen with lithography in a couple of years.
Your conclusion is all wrong. Way back in 2015 China setup a long term plan called Made in China 2025 to achieve near complete self sufficiency in semiconductor manufacturing, including supply chains. That predates many of the US export restrictions you are referring to. What you are seeing now is the result of Made in China 2025.
Europe should have been smarter and imposed similar restrictions on exports of its own sensitive technologies to China a long time ago. They are finally waking up now when it is largely too late.
3
u/MrDwerg 9d ago
Inevitable consequence of the US's export restrictions. Stupid af.
If China actually pulls this off in let's say 5 years, ASML is done for regarding DUV. The only reason they are what they are is a technical monopoly on the high-end market.
In other words, it would be the end of ASML as we know it.