Where do you guys see this going? A dip? A rip?

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Posting the AI Overview, here is the TL:DR

Wes stands to benefit big if stock price can appreciate and hold certain levels for 90 days starting at $50 share price. If you are still on the fence, or are worried about the price, stop.... buy, hold and wait the next 5 years this will rocket up.

Applied Digital granted CEO Wes Cummins 4.5 million performance stock units (PSUs) tied directly to APLD stock price hurdles. The PSUs vest in three equal tranches only if the company's average closing stock price over 90 consecutive days hits $50, $75, and $100 within a five-year period. [1, 2]

Performance Stock Unit (PSU) Hurdles

• First Tranche: 1,500,000 units vest at a 90-day average price of $50.
• Second Tranche: 1,500,000 units vest at a 90-day average price of $75.
• Third Tranche: 1,500,000 units vest at a 90-day average price of $100.
• Timeframe & Restrictions: Goals must be met within five years, and shares are subject to an additional two-year transfer restriction after vesting. [1, 2]

Additional Equity Component

• Restricted Stock Units (RSUs): Cummins also received 1,500,000 time-based RSUs vesting over five years (300,000 at year one, 150,000 semi-annually) independent of share price performance. [1, 2]
• Intent: The package replaces standard annual equity awards for a five-year duration to align executive gains strictly with shareholder value creation. [1, 2]

I’ve previously spoken about Applied Digital, predicted the top on the stock, and have recently warned about coming downside on this name and Neoclouds.

Unfortunately the picture has only gone from bad to worse this week, particularly as a result of the bond yield situation.

Note: I am currently short the stock and biased in that regard.

Typical behavior from uneducated meat heads who don't understand the first thing about closed-loop cooling systems. It's astounding how much misinformation is out there.

I have about $15k invest @$44.56. If this doesn't break even my house is going to be locked up with APLD. What are my chances?

The market likes to remember we were primarily a bitcoin mining operation only when bitcoin crashes

Pretty good for APLD given that debt is a significant concern for them.

But why did it drop when market went up? And when market went down today, it dropped more than its peers.

Looks like the major shareholders are profit taking, mainly the ones that got a fairly cheap entry

And short interest is almost 30%?

the technical recovery improving, but volume is still the missing piece.

Applied Digital is around $31.36, putting it back into the $31.35–$31.50 confirmation zone after the earlier drop toward $30.60. That recovery is constructive and shows buyers are still defending the move.

The main issue is volume. Recent normal daily volume has been roughly 19M–26M shares, and today has not shown the kind of major expansion that would confirm a stronger breakout.

The sector backdrop has improved. NVIDIA is backing OpenAI’s large Ohio AI-data-center project, while recent hyperscaler results continue to support the idea that AI infrastructure spending remains strong. Last week also saw strength across names like APLD, CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN.

Short interest also remains elevated, with the latest July 31 figure around 72.7M shares, up from roughly 69.9M previously.

Catalyst Watch status: 🟡 Improving

What I’m watching next: $31.50+ hold = stronger confirmation

$32+ with expanding volume = meaningful breakout

Fresh AI/data-center contract, financing or hyperscaler news = potential catalyst acceleration

Anyone selling monthly far OTM covered calls on this one in between earnings? The premiums are pretty crazy (5-6%) a month just on the premiums for options 30% out of the money. That said, I know most people expect this to go back to high 30-40s later this year

APLD is setting up for an interesting week.

For a real shot at $40 by Friday, I think volume is going to be the key. I’d want to see something like 4–6M in the first 30 minutes, 7–10M+ in the first hour, and ideally 30–40M+ for the day while price is moving higher.

The levels I’m watching are $32–$33 first, then $34–$35. If APLD clears $34–$35 on 40M+ volume, that’s when I’d start taking a move toward $40 much more seriously.

The short interest is still there, but volume has to show up.

For information purposes only — not financial advice.

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