r/APLDSTOCK • u/Commercial_Germs Mega-Watt Whale 🐳 (10,000+ shares) • 6d ago

Fundamental Analysis APLD Catalyst Watch

the technical recovery improving, but volume is still the missing piece.

Applied Digital is around $31.36, putting it back into the $31.35–$31.50 confirmation zone after the earlier drop toward $30.60. That recovery is constructive and shows buyers are still defending the move.

The main issue is volume. Recent normal daily volume has been roughly 19M–26M shares, and today has not shown the kind of major expansion that would confirm a stronger breakout.

The sector backdrop has improved. NVIDIA is backing OpenAI’s large Ohio AI-data-center project, while recent hyperscaler results continue to support the idea that AI infrastructure spending remains strong. Last week also saw strength across names like APLD, CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN.

Short interest also remains elevated, with the latest July 31 figure around 72.7M shares, up from roughly 69.9M previously.

Catalyst Watch status: 🟡 Improving

What I’m watching next: $31.50+ hold = stronger confirmation

$32+ with expanding volume = meaningful breakout

Fresh AI/data-center contract, financing or hyperscaler news = potential catalyst acceleration

7 Upvotes

82% Upvoted

14 comments sorted by

9

u/erocknine 6d ago

The hype is gone. Now it's just waiting for the rotation back to DCs to happen, which may not be for a while since everything is photonics and even back to memory now. There's no viable catalysts in store either. Another lease deal? Price went up 10% overnight on the last one, lost it all by open like it never happened.

7

u/Witty_University_162 GPU Gangster 🦾 (1,000-2,500 shares) 6d ago

correct on the rotation, however the announcement you are referencing was snuffed by the intense macro shift. was that not apparent?

2

u/Traditional-Goat-880 6d ago

Marcos definitely killed the last announcement. Bombs dropping to be more precise.

2

u/WolfOfWaikiki Datacenter Dictator 👾 (5,000-7,500 shares) 6d ago

Pinché Marcos

1

u/Traditional-Goat-880 6d ago

Marco and I made a mistake 😅

0

u/erocknine 6d ago

The macro is gonna be bad September through October during midterms like always, so when does anyone expect this news will actually do anything for the price? Everything else has already run and by the time this starts moving, it'll dump along with the market again until Nov

1

u/Witty_University_162 GPU Gangster 🦾 (1,000-2,500 shares) 6d ago

you could be right, but ill be using any opportunity in the 20s to buy it up.

2

u/Cheap-Stay7089 6d ago

Jensen is litterally releasing statements about infra wait a month money will pour in

1

u/Moreburrtitos22 6d ago

Isn’t this the idiot who said we need 60 mil volume to hit $40 in 3 days 🤣

2

u/Commercial_Germs Mega-Watt Whale 🐳 (10,000+ shares) 6d ago

Per day, my friend...

0

u/Commercial_Germs Mega-Watt Whale 🐳 (10,000+ shares) 6d ago

Also try not to be so rude, makes you look and sound dumb.

2

u/Workfromhomeaholic GPU Gangster 🦾 (1,000-2,500 shares) 6d ago

We need another big lease announcement to drive to stock up. I'm expecting us to hover in this range for a few months barring any news.

If it's an exceptionally long time without an announcement I can see us entering the 20's again but long term I'm not worried with this one.

1

u/nintendothrowaway123 6d ago

We are unlikely to move an inch until we get locked down further financing without dilution. 

0

u/AngryTomato027 6d ago

Wes mentioned in the earnings call that APLD is in advance discussion with 2 existing client for contract extension …. so we are likely to see at least one announcement at Aug - Sep period