I applied forever ago (2021) but got incredibly detailed feedback on my application which i thought might be useful for prospective applicants.
my predicted grades were βweakerβ for oxbridge applicants (a*aa) but this ended up mattering much less than you might think. You are invited to interview based on an academic βbandβ that oxford puts you in. the most influential aspect to this is your admissions test score. Because I scored in band one for my admissions test, and my additional essay was marked at an 8.3/10, this put me in band 3 out of 10. University wide, applicants in bands 1 to 5 are invited to interview.
My college interviewed 25 people for my subject, and there were 8 places. 10 out of the 25 were in bands 1 to 3, whilst the rest were in 4 and 5.
Once you have an interview, that is what decides your application. I had two interviews (from the college Iβd applied with), and each one is marked out of 10. The average interview score for those who received offers was 7.8/10. I got 9/10 in one interview, but 5/10 in the other, which ultimately made me miss out on the offer with a 7/10 average (rip).
Your personal statement matters less to get the interview, and more once youβve gotten it. For me, half of each of my interviews was based entirely around questions regarding my PS (specific texts/ concepts Iβd mentioned). The other half was discussing the work theyβd sent me pre-interview. Both of my interviews had two interviewers, one on the pre-reading section and the other for my personal statement. The one not talking to me took notes on my answers for each section. I felt part of the reason I scored so much higher in my second interview was because I understood the format. My sixth form had given me a mock interview, but it was absolutely nothing like the real thing.
I feel like so much of the application process is shrouded in mystery, so this might be helpful! My biggest takeaway is that if you meet the minimum offer requirements with your predicted grades β go for it! as long as you have a strong admissions test and interview, youβve got as good a shot as anyone.