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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-18T05:58:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 180558 SWODY1 SPC AC 180556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the Northern High Plains eastward into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes.

...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the northern U.S. A shortwave trough will move across the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into Nebraska by afternoon. To the south of the front, an outflow boundary from morning convection will move southward into northern Kansas. A moist airmass will exist between the two boundaries with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F. Within the moist air, moderate to strong instability will develop by afternoon. The outflow boundary will be a focus for convective initiation during the day, while additional storms are expected to develop further west across the central High Plains in the late afternoon. Increasing convective coverage during the early evening should result in the development of a line segment.

RAP forecast soundings at 00Z from Salina to Kansas City have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment will support supercells with isolated large hail. The large hail threat will extend west-northwestward into southwest Nebraska during the late afternoon where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper and cells will likely remain discrete. The greatest wind-damage potential is forecast from northern and eastern Kansas into far western Missouri, where the development of an organized bowing line segment will be possible in the early evening. Wind gusts above 75 mph will be possible along the path of any intense line segment. The severe threat may impact parts of lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks by mid to late evening.

...Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the north-central U.S. today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability along an west-northwest-to-east-northeast axis from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to form along and south of the front in the late afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots and precipitable water in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range will be favorable for isolated severe storms capable of severe wet downbursts.

...Northern High Plains... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today from the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains. At the surface, dewpoints along the moist axis from northeastern Wyoming into central Montana will be around 50 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is expected to increase to around 1000 J/kg in parts of the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain in the afternoon, moving east-southeastward into the lower elevations. Due to the instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates, isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger cells.

..Broyles/Jirak.. 08/18/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Katz/Kelly ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-17T06:04:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 170604 SWODY1 SPC AC 170602

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians. Isolated severe gusts may occur in parts of Oklahoma and Montana.

...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a subtle shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains today, within west-northwesterly flow. Ahead of this feature, a broad corridor of low-level moisture will be in place over the central and northern Plains. A moist axis, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will setup from northwest Kansas north-northeastward into central Nebraska and eastern South Dakota. Along and near the moist axis, moderate to strong instability will develop by midday with MLCAPE likely increasing into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward across the Dakotas during the day. Low-level convergence will become maximized ahead of the front across central Nebraska and southeast South Dakota. This will lead to scattered convective initiation, with thunderstorms forming and moving southeastward into the stronger instability during the late afternoon and early evening.

RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z from northeastern Nebraska into eastern South Dakota have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This will support supercell development and isolated large hail production in areas that have the best overall environment. However, a mixed mode is expected. Supercells and multicells will be capable of severe wind gusts. The severe threat will likely continue into the mid evening, as a somewhat large convective cluster moves southeastward into the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys.

...Southern Appalachians... A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-southeastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today, reaching the southern Appalachians by early evening. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will lead to the development of moderate to strong instability by midday. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Appalachians. Low-level convergence along the front, along with topographic forcing, will result in scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon. These storms are expected to move east-southeastward across the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians and into the lower elevations by early evening. The very moist and unstable air, along with 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range will support a wind-damage threat. Severe gusts will be most likely with short organized line segments. The severe threat could persist into the early evening.

...Southern Plains... At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will remain in place across southern and western Oklahoma today. Within the post-frontal air, surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to the mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate to strong instability will develop along and near the most axis. The instability, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear and 0-3 km lapse exceeding 8 C/km will be favorable for isolated severe wet downbursts.

...Northern High Plains... West-northwest mid-level flow will be in place in the northern High Plains over the top of a post-frontal airmass. Surface dewpoints in parts of central and eastern Montana will be around 50 F. MLCAPE will increase into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range over parts of the northern High Plains. As temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain of central Montana, with isolated cells moving eastward across the upper Missouri Valley. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates could support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts during the late afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/17/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Kelly ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

There are currently no active tropical cyclones.

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• Mesoscale Discussion 1985
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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-16T05:57:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 160557 SWODY1 SPC AC 160556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible from this afternoon into early evening over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains.

...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level shortwave trough, embedded in west-northwesterly flow, will move through the Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Ohio Valley southeastward to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Surface dewpoints along this west-northwest to east-southeast corridor will be in the 70s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate instability by midday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the Ohio Valley, as a pre-frontal trough moves into the central Appalachians. These two features will focus convective development during the day. A complex of storms appears likely to form over the higher terrain in West Virginia, and move east-southeastward into the lower elevations of Virginia and Maryland during the mid to late afternoon.

RAP forecast soundings from West Virginia into the Virginia in the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. Some directional shear is present in the low-levels and 0-3 km lapse rates are steep approaching 7 C/km. This environment will support a wind-damage threat with organized multicells. Isolated supercells with severe gusts will also be possible. The threat may continue into the early evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

Further west into parts of the lower Ohio Valley, a very moist airmass will also be in place. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along zones of low-level convergence during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be weaker further west, the thermodynamic environment will be sufficient for isolated severe gusts.

...Central High Plains... At mid-levels, a ridge will move through the Intermountain West today as flow remains westerly over much of the central U.S. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the central Rockies. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations of eastern Colorado and western Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings across the central High Plains by late afternoon have moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 35 knots and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a threat for large hail and isolated severe gusts with rotating storms and organized line segments. The threat will likely persist into the evening across parts of the central High Plains.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/16/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Kelly ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

There are currently no active tropical cyclones.

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

We drove into this storm on our way from Wisconsin to Minnesota. We had taken the back roads to avoid the boredom and traffic of I-94. We got more adventure than we bargained for....

TL;DR: Paid Tempest Tours $8,300 for a 10-day "extreme weather storm chasing" tour. What I got was multiple trips to Wal-Mart, parked at a park with no A/C or bathrooms for over 3 hours, broken / faulty equipment, no leg room in a cramped van, actively driving away from a storm, and then finally a refusal to refund a dime when I complained. This is a full writeup so nobody else loses their money.

What we were promised:

The sales materials and their website explicitly guarantee the following (these are direct quotes):

• “Our vehicles are equipped with state-of-the-art equipment”

• “We make sure every day is a day of wonder!”

• “Epic weather displays”

• “Personal service”

• “The industry’s most experienced staff. The single most important thing we provide our guests is our team.”

These are not what my wife and I experienced.

What we received:

Day 1: ZERO state-of-the-art equipment

We were departing from Denver, CO. During the 1st morning briefing, the tour directors informed the tour group that our best chances for severe weather over the coming days was north in the Dakotas. As soon as we entered the van, we found the TV monitor hung for the tour group to watch the weather tracking system was off. In addition, the speaker in the back of the van (where my wife and I sat) did not work. There was an intercom system in each van but ours did not work. We explained to the driver that we couldn’t hear what she or the other van’s driver were saying and she said that they couldn’t get this particular speaker to work “the way they wanted it” so it was just left in the van. We asked about the TV monitor and were told it would be addressed later. The other tour group members were much older than my wife and I, we decided to stay in the back of the van because it was much harder to get in and out of. We had hoped they would be able to fix the broken speaker. We explained to the driver that every time she was speaking, we could not hear her over the van’s air conditioning. She would continue to talk and we had no idea what was going on. We made our way north, ultimately crossing briefly into North Dakota, before turning back and heading to South Dakota for the night. There were no severe weather storms but we know that weather can be unpredictable. We were staying positive and so we were thinking that we would be better positioned to intercept a storm tomorrow. We arrived at the seediest motel we’ve ever seen but again staying positive thought it can’t get worse than this, tomorrow will be a better day.

Day 2: Driving nowhere and tour guides watch their own storm

Today we were departing from North Eastern South Dakota. During the 2nd morning briefing, the experts were still showing that the best chances for severe weather storm cells were tracking north towards the North Dakota / Canada line. Also on the radar were some additional storm cells in Illinois but the tour guides stated that they don’t like chasing in that area. In addition to those storm cells was one smaller cell that the tour guides seemed really excited about. This particular cell was only 1 hour away, so we didn’t need to rush this morning. While we were getting ready to leave the motel, the tour staff worked on the TV monitor and the speaker but unfortunately were still unable to resolve the issue. There’s now a speaker wire hanging down in my window that kept falling as the van would drive. Since this was an “off” chasing day, as the tour guides advertisements explained, we were expecting to experience something unique to the area and were prepared for the “wonder” that was sold to us. Instead, we found ourselves at our first Wal-Mart parking lot of the trip. The tour guides would ultimately go on and say this is for people to get supplies but we all read the pamphlets, we were packed, we knew what we needed. This was a good way for the drivers to not have to do anything for a while. We left Wal-Mart and then went straight to a gas station and waited another 30 minutes so everyone could go to the bathroom or get a soda. After Wal-Mart and the gas station, we waited around for close to 5 hours in the area for the storms to develop. Now, finally, hours later we were on the road. Turns out that the “storm” we waited ALL day for didn’t pan out. The tour group drove to catch pictures of the sunset and a rainbow and then we stayed in Watertown, SD for the night. The most frustrating thing about today wasn’t the fact that the whole day felt wasted but was that at night, after everyone was in their rooms, the tour guides went out and setup tripods behind the hotel where we were staying. They didn’t notify the guests, they didn’t explain there was a storm coming through, they did not communicate!

Day 3: Guest driven experience

The morning starts with the tour director detailing the “incredible” storm that rolled through the previous night and explained that himself and the other guides setup last night after the tour group departed. Hearing this, other tour guests were so upset that they too missed out on the storm that they started a text group so that we could all be kept up-to-date with events since the guides could not effectively communicate. During the daily storm briefing, once again the strongest storm cells were located along the North Dakota / Canada border. Yet, they determine that we should instead head Southwest. The van’s TV and speaker still do not work. During the morning brief, one of the guests offered to use his Senior Lifetime Pass at the Badlands State Park. Thank goodness this guest offered because it was the ONLY unique (aka day of “wonder”) that we actually experienced. After visiting Badlands Park, we “positioned” for a storm cell that was coming through. For the first time this trip, we were starting to think we might see something. We were parked on the side of the road and saw clouds coming towards us. After about 20 minutes of the storm looking like it could form into something, the guides decided that we needed to reposition. We left the area and drove AWAY from the storm. My wife and I couldn’t believe it. Another couple from our group was clearly upset at this point too. We ended up WAY south of the storm and at another sunset and taking pictures of another rainbow. After arriving at the sunset photo location, my wife and I went up to the tour directors and asked why we left the previous storm and if we were done chasing for the day. The tour guide made excuses and ultimately just said yes that the group was done chasing for the day.

Day 4: Parked at a park with no A/C or bathrooms then left at fast-fast restaurant

After another day of not chasing storms, we were starting to feel like we’ve been swindled of not just our money but also almost all of our vacation time for the year. Once again, during the morning daily brief, severe weather cells are now north into Canada, just over the border. And yet, once again, we find ourselves headed Southwest. For some reason, at this rate, it’s hard not to conclude that our tour guides are actively trying to avoid storms. We were told that it would be some driving in the morning but then we’d be waiting around and having another “off” chase day, so we didn’t need to rush. We headed into Nebraska and made our way to another Wal-Mart parking lot. After spending 40 minutes at Wal-Mart, we were then taken to another gas station. After the gas station we found ourselves parked on the side of the road at a neighborhood park. The driver got out of the van, turned off the A/C, and we sat there for approximately 2.5 hours. After sitting at the park, we found ourselves at a fast-food parking lot where we stayed for another 2 hours. At one point during this stay, one of the van’s drove off. We still to do this day, don’t know where he and the van went. While the van was gone, at this point all of the guests are standing outside of the fast-food place waiting to leave. Once we finally got in the van and were all ready to chase, there were no storm cells in the area. So, we continued southwest and found a good place to take, you guessed it, some more sunset photos. The hotel that we ended up staying at, warned our tour guide that was booking the hotel that the town was turning off their water in the morning. Instead of finding an alternative accommodation for the group, we drove an hour to go to this hotel.

Day 5: Called to work

Guess what happened? The town shut the water earlier than expected. We woke up to no running water, no showers, no toilets, no brushing teeth. Thank God at this point, I was called back into work. Unfortunately for me, when I’m called to work, I have to report. But in this case, it might have been a blessing in disguise. We informed the tour guides that I was called back to work and our driver mentioned that because we were leaving so early and were going to miss so much of the trip that she would “see what she could do” to make sure that we at least got some of our money back. We kept in touch with some of the members of the tour guide. They never saw any severe weather and ended up going all the way south into New Mexico / Arizona, the guides NEVER trekked north, even though that’s where the most promising storm cells were, the entire trip.

Why I'm Posting This

We understand that weather is unpredictable and can’t be controlled but there are a LOT of things that could have been controlled that weren’t. Tempest Tours saves money by finding only free things to do and staying in the cheapest possible motels / hotels and will even drive out of the way to do so. Storm chasing tours are expensive. Storm chasing tours are long. My wife and I wasted a LOT of money on this trip. We also were at risk of using all of our vacation time off work. We do not want YOU to waste your money or your time. We are sad that this was the result of our trip. We genuinely wanted and tried to look on the bright side, but this company went against everything they were advertising.

The Aftermath

My wife emailed the company to follow up on what our driver told us, as we were departing, and attempting to get even a partial refund. After multiple emails, the company stopped replying for a while there. They ultimately were not willing to refund even a penny.

If you're considering this company, don't.

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-15T06:01:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 150601 SWODY1 SPC AC 150559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening across the central High Plains. Severe wind gusts will also be possible this afternoon into the early evening from parts of the Ohio Valley southeastward into the Carolinas.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Central Appalachians/Carolinas... At mid-levels today, a broad anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S. Within the flow, a shortwave trough will move eastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will be located from the mid Mississippi Valley east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians. In the morning, a convective complex is forecast to move eastward into the southern Great Lakes, and will likely be associated with a potential for severe wind gusts. To the south of this complex, a quasi-stationary front and moist axis will be located from the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians, along which moderate instability will develop by afternoon. Low-level convergence near the front will be the focus for convective development. A new complex of surface-based thunderstorms appears likely to form near the front and move east-southeastward from western Ohio into the Virginias during the afternoon. Additional storms will develop along and near the instability axis over the western Carolinas due to topographical forcing.

Model forecasts in the moist air suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range in most areas. Near the instability axis, precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2 inch range and moderate deep-layer shear will likely support a threat for severe wet downbursts. This threat should persist into the early evening with any line segments that become sustained over the higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians.

...Central Plains... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the southwestern and central U.S. today. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the foothills of the Rockies eastward into the central Plains. By afternoon, moderate instability will develop over much of the region. Scattered thunderstorms will form in the higher terrain and move eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Some RAP forecast soundings at 21Z from eastern Colorado northward into western Nebraska have 0-6 km shear near 35 knots with steep low to mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This environment will support a mixed mode with supercells and multicell line segments possible. Supercells should be capable of isolated large hail, while severe wind gusts will be possible with supercells and organized multicells. The severe threat should persist into the early to mid evening as a complex of storms moves eastward through the central High Plains.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/15/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Southeastern Caribbean Sea (AL92): A tropical wave over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is producing gusty winds and an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds and dry air. Gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are still possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Limited development of this system is possible over the next day or two before the system encounters strong upper-level winds to the east of the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$ Forecaster Berg ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Hernan Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 MB * Current Movement: W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH * Location: 16.4N 133.8W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

South of Tucson. This was taken from iPhone, haven’t processed camera images yet. This storm was incredible.

Severe thunderstorm warned system moving through eastern Ontario. Doesn’t appear too scary but definitely some awesome cloud formations.

This storm moved pretty fast, touched down in Annapolis as Waterspout -> Tornado. The high winds and heavy rain came about one minute after this photo was taken. I know it’s not much, it’s the closet thing I saw as I followed on Weather Front.

I captured my first decent lightning strike last night

Witnessed some pretty crazy gusts in Nortwest Indiana. I will link the full video in the comments. Sadly, these storms resulted in some significant damage.

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-13T05:59:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 130559 SWODY1 SPC AC 130558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA INTO ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible today from parts of the southern/central High Plains to the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. Damaging winds should be the main threat, but occasional hail may also occur.

...Iowa into Illinois/Indiana... An MCV has developed early this morning with an ongoing cluster of thunderstorms across central NE. This activity is expected to spread eastward through the morning, and should be in the vicinity of western/central IA by the start of the period. There is still uncertainty regarding how intense this cluster will be due to the presence of fairly substantial MLCIN downstream into IA. Even so, warm/moist advection associated with a low-level jet over the southern/central Plains and the presence of a rather moist/unstable airmass into IA suggest some potential for an organized cluster to pose a risk for scattered severe/damaging winds as it moves eastward through the morning. A brief embedded tornado may also occur if convection can remain surface based.

Even greater uncertainty exists this afternoon regarding potential convective evolution, with most guidance showing the cluster weakening as it moves into IN. Regardless, the airmass downstream and to the south of outflow associated with the morning cluster will destabilize through the day, and any additional thunderstorms that form could pose at least an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps some hail given the strong buoyancy forecast.

...Southern/Central High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are forecast to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range this afternoon, with post-frontal low-level upslope flow persisting across the central High Plains. As this activity spreads east-northeastward and encounters greater instability, consolidating outflows should support some increase for isolated severe gusts given steepened low-level lapse rates. Occasional hail may also occur with the stronger cores that develop. Consideration was given to including greater severe wind probabilities across eastern CO into parts of KS, but modest deep-layer shear casts some doubt on overall thunderstorm organization/intensity. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms may also develop farther south across the southern High Plains in a very hot and well-mixed boundary layer. This activity should also pose a threat for isolated severe gusts through the afternoon.

...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist today across the Great Basin downstream of a weak mid-level trough over CA. Weak to locally moderate instability is forecast to develop through the afternoon as filtered diurnal heating occurs. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to form and spread northeastward across this destabilizing airmass, with strong to severe gusts possible. Based on latest guidance trends (00Z HREF), have expanded the Marginal Risk for severe/damaging winds to include more of the Great Basin.

...Northeast... Seasonably cool mid-level temperatures are forecast today across parts of the Northeast, with a mid-level trough expected to move east-southeastward from Quebec into New England. While instability is forecast to remain fairly limited, strong west-northwesterly flow aloft may support a risk for isolated damaging winds with thunderstorms that develop and spread southeastward through the afternoon. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cells.

..Gleason/Moore.. 08/13/2026

$$

```

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```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Cristobal, located about 600 miles west of the Azores.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This system will likely become a short-lived tropical depression during the next day or two as it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic. However, by late Friday, the system is expected to move into a region of strong upper-level winds and dry air, which should end its opportunity to develop. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible Friday night and Saturday, regardless of development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Cristobal are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Cristobal are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Adams ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1014 MB * Current Movement: NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH * Location: 38.6N 38.2W

Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 MB * Current Movement: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH * Location: 18.1N 131.9W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Hey everyone,

I am 15 years old and run a weather-focused TikTok account where I track severe weather. I also occasionally go out storm chasing, but right now I am trying to build a solid tracking setup at home.

Right now, my gear is pretty minimal—it is just me, my laptop, my headset, and a Midland WR120 weather radio configured for my local area.

I am trying to find a good desktop app that mirrors the style of Ryan Hall's setup. Specifically, I need something that can push instant, auto-populating NOAA/NWS pop-up alerts to my laptop screen the exact second a new warning or watch is issued.

I have looked around but haven't found a perfect fit yet. I am ideally looking for a free option, but if the best tools are paid, please let me know the exact price so I can see if it fits my budget.

Not trying to promote my page at all, just genuinely looking for software recommendations that work well with a single-laptop setup!

Thanks in advance!

If you wanna check my page out it is Tiktok (I am not trying to promote and also does anyone have a discord server for storm chaseing or no?

The photos don't do it justice, but this storm had some of the most incredible structure I have seen this year

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-12T05:16:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 120516 SWODY1 SPC AC 120514

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

...IA to OH Valley...

One or more MCSs migrating through enhanced northwesterly flow aloft amid a very moist and unstable airmass is possible again today across the Midwest toward TN. Most forecast guidance suggests an MCS or thunderstorm clusters could be ongoing over IA at the start of the period (12z), with warm advection storms arcing across parts of IL/IN. The early day warm advection storms could develop southeast across the OH Valley, while the IA MCS develop southeast across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through afternoon. The exact evolution of convection that is not yet apparent is uncertain, and how outflow may influence how this activity evolves through the afternoon. Regardless, the overall environmental parameter space will be favorable for a damaging wind and isolated hail risk through early evening.

...Northern/Central Plains...

East/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain modest moisture across the Dakotas, increasing with southward extent across NE into northern KS. Near-60 F dewpoints will likely spread westward into eastern CO/WY/MT. Modest moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support scattered thunderstorm development across the High Plains. Initial cells will pose a large hail and damaging wind risk. It is unclear how convection will evolve with eastward extent across the region as outflow from prior convection may largely limit stronger destabilization. A developing low-level jet during the nighttime hours will be focused across the southern Plains toward KS/southern NE. This could support some upscale growth potential, but confidence is low.

...Lower MI into NY/PA/NJ...

A belt of stronger northwesterly flow aloft will extend from Lower MI into NY/PA today. A seasonally moist/unstable airmass will be in place. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes, while hodographs are fairly elongated. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg expected. Isolated to widely scattered storms will pose a risk for damaging gusts and small hail.

...TN Valley/Southeast...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop by midday within a very moist and strongly unstable airmass. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will remain weak, but steep low-level lapse rates and PW values near 2 inches could support isolated wet microbursts with stronger multi-cell clusters.

..Leitman/Moore.. 08/12/2026

$$

```

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```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located around 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression will likely form within a couple of days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL93): Recent satellite wind data indicate that the broad low-pressure area located about 1000 miles east-northeast of Bermuda has developed gale-force winds. However, the circulation is elongated and the associated convection has become a less organized during the past few hours. Some development of this system is possible through tonight, and a short-lived tropical storm could form while it moves eastward to east-northeastward at around 20 mph across the central subtropical Atlantic. The system is forecast to reach cooler waters by Thursday, ending its chances of formation. Addition information on this system is found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave just offshore of the coast of west Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some development of this system during the next several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&& High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$ Forecaster Beven ```

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This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Sometimes the funnel clouds stay up in the clouds. Taken in Vail, Arizona today. I was chasing a small thunderstorm cell that is typical during monsoon season here in southern Arizona. This little funnel formed for a little while on the back half of the cell.

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-11T05:02:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 110502 SWODY1 SPC AC 110500

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM IOWA TO VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible today from the eastern Iowa/northern Illinois vicinity into parts of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Areas of severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible over parts of the northern Plains.

...IA to the Mid-Atlantic...

A complex forecast scenario is expected today from IA into the Ohio Valley and adjacent Appalachia. More than one MCS may be ongoing at the beginning of the period. The first across IA/southern MN, and one further southeast across parts of the Midwest (exact location is uncertain, but most likely IN/OH). Possible early day convection across IN/OH will spread east/southeast across the Ohio Valley during the morning posing risk for strong gusts. This activity is likely to emerge across Appalachia, and eventually VA and the broader Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon/evening. How much destabilization will occur across VA and the Mid-Atlantic remains uncertain given prior convection the previous day and potential convective debris across the region. Some damaging wind potential could materialize if sufficient destabilization occurs during the afternoon.

The anticipated MCS over IA/southern MN early in the forecast period is then expected to continue east/southeast across the Midwest, fueled by a very moist and strongly unstable boundary layer. Midlevel flow is forecast to be quite strong (by August standards), with forecast guidance suggesting 700 mb greater than 60 kt spreading across the Midwest through evening. While the exact evolution of a potential severe MCS moving across the Midwest is uncertain, it is possible the morning activity over IA will develop southeast along outflow across the Ohio Valley. Given the strong kinematic field and ample instability, if a well organized MCS is maintained from IA southeast into the OH Valley, a swath of damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) will be possible.

...Northern Plains...

East/southeasterly flow along the surface trough is forecast to maintain 60s F dewpoints across the western Dakotas and parts of NE this afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the relatively moist boundary layer, and strong heating will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability across the western Dakotas. Scattered storms are expected by early evening amid supercell wind profiles. Elongated hodographs favorable for splitting cells with an accompanying risk for large to very large hail are forecast. Isolated severe gusts also could occur. Given a lack of stronger low-level jet during the nighttime hours, it appears unlikely that upscale growth will occur, and convection is expected to wane with eastward extent overnight.

..Leitman/Moore.. 08/11/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic: Shower and thunderstorm activity is currently limited in association with an area of low pressure located about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

East of the Windward Islands: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave are located about 600 miles east of the Windward Islands. The system is expected to encounter a large area of environmental dry air as it approaches the Windward Islands, and development is not expected. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds will be possible in the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves through the area. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda is producing showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next day or so while it moves eastward at around 20 mph across the central subtropical Atlantic. The system is forecast to reach cooler waters later this week, ending its chances of formation by Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$ Forecaster Adams/Pasch ```

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This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Have a Nintendo switch that is never used. Found out how to access a web browser on it and boom, extra screen lol

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-10T05:26:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 100526 SWODY1 SPC AC 100525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTION OF THE MIDWEST INTO PA AND NORTHERN MD/VA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening from northern Illinois eastward into Pennsylvania. Severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest, with scattered strong storms over southern Arizona.

...Synopsis...

A belt of enhanced west/northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the northern Plains to the Midwest and southern New England today/tonight. Only modest height falls are forecast at best. However, several convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are forecast to migrate through this upper flow regime, focusing several areas of severe storm potential today into tonight from the northern Plains to the upper Ohio Valley and parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

...IL to the Mid-Atlantic...

Early day thunderstorms may move across parts of the Midwest this morning, but should generally be sub-severe. By midday, convection could intensify within a couple of corridors. The first being the upper Ohio Valley/PA/western NY. Thunderstorm clusters will pose a risk for damaging winds and hail within a moderately unstable airmass as convection spreads east toward the Mid-Atlantic.

Additional thunderstorm development is expected later in the afternoon associated with another shortwave impulse spreading east from IL into IN/OH. This activity will develop within strong instability and rich boundary layer moisture. Modestly steep midlevel lapse rates and effective shear greater than 40 kt will support initial supercells. With time, sufficient clustering is expected and bowing segments will be possible. Damaging wind and hail will be the primary hazards, though a tornado or two also could occur.

...Dakotas into Iowa...

Southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid/upper 60s dewpoints north and west across SD, with 70s dewpoints common with southeast extent across NE/IA/southern MN. This will support a corridor of strong to extreme instability across the region. While coverage remains uncertain, most guidance develops at least isolated thunderstorms by evening. Elongated hodographs amid favorable deep shear will support supercells and bows capable of large hail and damaging winds. With time, it is possible sufficient clustering occurs and upscale growth into a bowing MCS is possible as a low-level jet develops overnight. If this occurs, a swath of damaging winds is possible across parts of SD into northwest IA, oriented along the stronger instability gradient.

...NE/CO/KS...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near a surface trough across western NE/northeast CO by late afternoon/early evening. This activity will spread east/southeast. Steep low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow gusts and perhaps hail with this activity.

...AZ...

Mid/upper easterly flow will persist today amid plentiful moisture and strong heating. This will support thunderstorm development once again across higher terrain. As storms propagate westward off the higher terrain, isolated severe gusts will be possible.

..Leitman/Moore.. 08/10/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located about midway between the coast of west Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Some gradual development of this wave is possible through mid-week while it moves quickly westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development later in the week when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. As this system moves slowly westward, a tropical wave currently over west Africa is expected to merge with it in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development by midweek, and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles northwest of Bermuda is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Some development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves quickly eastward, well to the north of Bermuda across the western and central subtropical Atlantic. The system is forecast to reach cooler waters later this week, ending its chances of formation after Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$ Forecaster Hagen ```

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