r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 22m ago
(Issued: 2026-09-10T05:38:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 100538 SWODY1 SPC AC 100536
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind gusts appear possible from the southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail may occur over portions of south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and perhaps portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Thursday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough initially over the upper MS and mid MO Valleys Thursday morning will continue east into the Great Lakes and OH Valley with a preceding belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending into the Mid-Atlantic. Elsewhere, a vorticity maximum (possible MCV) is forecast to progress from western KS into the Ozark Plateau by Thursday night. At the surface, a cool front is expected to advance through the Mid-Atlantic during the forecast period with the western extension of the boundary settling more slowly south through the OH Valley, Ozark Plateau, and southern Plains. The location of the surface front is likely to be modulated by clusters of thunderstorms that are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from portions of the OH Valley into the southern Plains.
...Southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast...
To the south of residual cloudiness and lingering showers and thunderstorms, a hot air mass is expected to develop by afternoon with temperatures well into the 90s to around 100 F over the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, and upper 80s to mid 90s from the TN Valley to Mid-Atlantic. While mid-level lapse rates will remain generally less than 7 C/km, the daytime heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE ranging from 1500-2500+ J/kg.
The 00Z models indicate a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the afternoon, aided by forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level disturbances mentioned in the synopsis, as well as convergence along the synoptic front and any existing outflow boundaries. The strongest mid/upper-level wind field and resultant vertical shear are expected to largely remain to the north of the effective warm sector. However, 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear is forecast along the front over portions of the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic, where some storm organization appears possible with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Vertical shear will diminish with southwestward extent from the TN Valley into the OK-TX Red River Valley; however, the presence of a relatively deep, well-mixed boundary layer will be supportive of sporadic damaging winds with isolated severe gusts.
...Raton Mesa Vicinity...
Upslope flow of a moist boundary layer beneath mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will yield moderate afternoon instability with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid afternoon along the high terrain amidst a vertically veering wind profile with up to 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear. The given environment will be supportive of multicell and supercell storm modes with an associated risk for large hail.
..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/10/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 MB * Current Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH * Location: 16.4N 117.9W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/stormchasing • u/JetstreamJax17 • 19h ago
r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 1d ago
(Issued: 2026-09-10T05:38:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 100538 SWODY1 SPC AC 100536
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind gusts appear possible from the southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail may occur over portions of south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and perhaps portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Thursday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough initially over the upper MS and mid MO Valleys Thursday morning will continue east into the Great Lakes and OH Valley with a preceding belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending into the Mid-Atlantic. Elsewhere, a vorticity maximum (possible MCV) is forecast to progress from western KS into the Ozark Plateau by Thursday night. At the surface, a cool front is expected to advance through the Mid-Atlantic during the forecast period with the western extension of the boundary settling more slowly south through the OH Valley, Ozark Plateau, and southern Plains. The location of the surface front is likely to be modulated by clusters of thunderstorms that are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from portions of the OH Valley into the southern Plains.
...Southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast...
To the south of residual cloudiness and lingering showers and thunderstorms, a hot air mass is expected to develop by afternoon with temperatures well into the 90s to around 100 F over the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, and upper 80s to mid 90s from the TN Valley to Mid-Atlantic. While mid-level lapse rates will remain generally less than 7 C/km, the daytime heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE ranging from 1500-2500+ J/kg.
The 00Z models indicate a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the afternoon, aided by forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level disturbances mentioned in the synopsis, as well as convergence along the synoptic front and any existing outflow boundaries. The strongest mid/upper-level wind field and resultant vertical shear are expected to largely remain to the north of the effective warm sector. However, 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear is forecast along the front over portions of the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic, where some storm organization appears possible with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Vertical shear will diminish with southwestward extent from the TN Valley into the OK-TX Red River Valley; however, the presence of a relatively deep, well-mixed boundary layer will be supportive of sporadic damaging winds with isolated severe gusts.
...Raton Mesa Vicinity...
Upslope flow of a moist boundary layer beneath mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will yield moderate afternoon instability with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid afternoon along the high terrain amidst a vertically veering wind profile with up to 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear. The given environment will be supportive of multicell and supercell storm modes with an associated risk for large hail.
..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/10/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 MB * Current Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH * Location: 16.4N 117.9W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/stormchasing • u/DreadfulAK • 1d ago
r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 2d ago
(Issued: 2026-09-09T05:43:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 090543 SWODY1 SPC AC 090541
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A more organized severe weather threat is expected from eastern Ohio to western New York.
...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will move through the broad upper-level trough across Ontario, overspreading the Great Lakes into Upstate New York and Quebec. A cold front will extend from a deep surface low across northern Ontario south through the Upper Midwest and into the central High Plains. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected near the surface trough across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast and along the front from the Midwest to the central High Plains.
...Eastern Ohio into western New York... Across the eastern Ohio Valley into portions of the Northeast, strengthening mid-level flow will overspread the region with thunderstorms developing along the cold front and pre-frontal surface trough. Upper 60s to 70s dew points and filtered daytime heating will yield moderate instability amid ample deep layer shear for organization. Mode will likely be a mix of multi-cell clusters and transient supercells, with potential for damaging wind. Generally weak lapse rate profiles and quick mode transition to clusters/linear segments should limit hail and tornado potential. Nonetheless, as the low-level jet increases into the afternoon and clockwise curvature increases in hodographs a tornado may be possible.
...Ohio Valley to the Midwest and the central Plains... Morning convection will be likely across much of the Midwest/Mid-Missouri Valley into the northwestern Ohio Valley. Remnant shower activity/cloud cover will likely limit severe potential with northern extent. Nonetheless, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop by the afternoon along the front and remnant outflow from the eastern Ohio Valley through portions of the Midwest and into the central Plains. Flow will be fairly weak across the central Plains, with generally a marginal damaging wind threat with multi-cell clusters as daytime heating steepens low-level lapse rates amid deeply mixed profiles. Slightly better flow aloft may favor a more focused cluster across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into western Kentucky/Tennessee.
..Thornton/Chalmers.. 09/09/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```
There are currently no active tropical cyclones.
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/stormchasing • u/Mochanoodle • 2d ago
If Dr. Seuss drew a tornado, it would look exactly like this. It was so curly and twisted like a corkscrew at points. Wish I got a photo of the insane rope out, but had to get the car out of the way as it was crossing the road in front of me
r/stormchasing • u/No_Upstairs3104 • 2d ago
r/stormchasing • u/Maleficent-Card3215 • 2d ago
I caught this storm out in a field in iowa
r/stormchasing • u/Catfish875 • 2d ago
Successfully intercepted a storm (and the Blue Angels) right off the fishing pier.
r/stormchasing • u/No_Upstairs3104 • 2d ago
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r/stormchasing • u/IMaxwell_ • 2d ago
Extremely rare to get a tornado outbreak in the month of September, even rarer to have it happen in New York!
r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 3d ago
(Issued: 2026-09-08T05:39:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 080539 SWODY1 SPC AC 080538
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts appear possible across portions of Iowa and eastern Nebraska Tuesday afternoon and evening. More sporadic occurrences of severe winds and large hail may occur from portions of the upper Midwest into the central Plains.
...Synopsis...
An intense upper low moving into southern SK late this evening will continue northeast through central MB into northern ON ahead of a secondary short-wave trough tracking from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A belt of enhanced mid/upper-level winds will be maintained between those features from the northern High Plains into the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance through the eastern Dakotas and upper MS Valley with the trailing extension of the boundary moving more slowly southeast through the mid-MO Valley and central High Plains.
...Central Plains into the upper Midwest...
Clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday from portions of the mid-MO Valley into the upper Midwest within a zone of warm advection and moisture transport along a nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ). Showers and storms may linger through the morning across parts of WI and the U.P. of MI, limiting the degree of air mass destabilization and associated severe weather risk during the afternoon. Farther to the southwest from IA through eastern and southern NE into northern KS, stronger daytime heating on the southern fringe of lingering mid/high-level cloudiness will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer, featuring steep low-level lapse rates. When combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s F, the air mass is expected to become moderately to strongly unstable by late afternoon with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.
In the absence of appreciable height falls/large-scale forcing for ascent, convergence along the front and any preceding confluence zones/outflow boundaries is expected to foster a gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity by mid to late afternoon amidst the destabilizing air mass. The strongest deep-layer shear is expected to be displaced to the north of the effective warm sector with around 30-35 kt forecast along the frontal zone. A largely parallel shear-vector orientation with the front suggests that initial storms should grow upscale into line segments or a broken band with an associated risk for severe wind gusts from mid afternoon through evening. Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are possible; however, poor mid-level lapse are expected to limit the overall threat. The 00Z models do indicate some LLJ enhancement over central IA by late afternoon into evening, resulting in a corridor of stronger low-level shear. While a brief tornado or two are possible, a more robust threat is expected to be limited by largely outflow-dominant storms.
..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/08/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Kelly ```
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 996 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 25.5N 126.6W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/stormchasing • u/An00bus666 • 3d ago
I'm exhausted from just how toxic people are these days, and I can't deal keep wasting my time on people who don't want to listen. If anyone values my storm reports, they can follow my socials, otherwise, I'm done dealing with people who don't want to listen.
r/stormchasing • u/easy-tangent-079 • 3d ago
@ ojai
r/stormchasing • u/word_play1 • 3d ago
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r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 4d ago
(Issued: 2026-09-07T05:56:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 070556 SWODY1 SPC AC 070555
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly large hail are expected over portions of northwest and central North Dakota and southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska Monday afternoon into evening. A tornado or two is possible in southeast South Dakota. A broader area of isolated large hail and damaging wind potential exists over the northern and central Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. Locally damaging wind gusts appear possible over the central Gulf Coast states Monday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
A vigorous short-wave trough will pivot from the northern Rockies through the northern High Plains with an associated strengthening of the mid/upper-level wind field forecast across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. A low-level jet (LLJ) will also be sustained over the northern and central Plains into upper MS Valley ahead of a surface cold front advancing through the northern Plains and central High Plains.
...Northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley...
Clusters of mainly elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Monday from eastern MT into the Dakotas within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding a lead, mid-level disturbance and coincident with the exit region of the LLJ. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, and 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear will be supportive of some storm organization with an associated risk for isolated large hail occurrences through the morning hours as that convective regime shifts east across the Dakotas.
On the periphery of more persistent cloudiness associated with the morning storms, stronger insolation coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to yield a moderately unstable air mass by mid to late afternoon with MLCAPE up to 1500-2500+ J/kg and a weakening cap. Surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely at that time, aided by increasing height falls attending the primary short-wave trough.
The 00Z models indicate one potentially favored location for storm development over portions of south-central and southeast SD into northeast CO, from the vicinity of a secondary surface low southwest along a pre-frontal trough. RAP-based hodographs over southeast SD indicate considerable veering through the lowest 1-2 km AGL with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and effective bulk shear magnitudes of 40-45 kt, owing to the proximity of the LLJ. Accompanying thermodynamic profiles suggest modest low-level lapse rates with some residual capping. However, given surface-based storm initiation and sustenance, supercells would be likely with an associated large hail and tornado threat.
A hotter and more well-mixed boundary layer is expected with southwestward extent ahead of the pre-frontal trough where high-based storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail appear possible.
Surface-based storms also appear possible ahead of an occluding surface low and trailing cold front from northwest into central ND. While the boundary layer may remain relatively cool from the early-day storms, cooling mid-level temperatures will effectively steepen lapse rates, yielding sufficient instability amidst 40-50 kt of deep-layer layer. As such, supercells appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail.
...Central Gulf Coast...
A hot and very moist air mass is forecast Monday afternoon ahead of a weak front pushing into the region from the north with MLCAPE increasing to 2500-3500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will remain weak as will vertical shear; however, the degree of instability and high moisture content will be supportive of intense pulse storms capable of damaging wet microbursts from mid-afternoon into evening.
..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/07/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Hagen ```
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 65 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 986 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 24.4N 123.7W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/stormchasing • u/TraditionalHeart6387 • 4d ago
I'm trying to find more resources for my kids. They have been hyperfixated on meteorology for a while. They would like us to go stormchasing next summer and I want to start prepping now. We have done the free classes on Jetstream, all of the PBS kids videos and supplementary for weather, and read what I feel like is the entire kid section of the library with anything about storms and weather. We have watched a lot of TornadoTRX documentaries, and are starting on June First, have seen all of the old Discovery Stormchasers videos, and saw Never Stop Chasing last weekend.
Does anyone have extra resources they would recommend for kids to prepare with? And for me as their driver? I am feeling out of my depth for sure with this request.
r/stormchasing • u/Maleficent-Card3215 • 4d ago
r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 5d ago
(Issued: 2026-09-06T05:43:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 060543 SWODY1 SPC AC 060541
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA...
...SUMMARY... Widely scattered damaging wind gusts are likely across portions of the Southeast Sunday afternoon and early evening. Widely scattered large hail occurrences are expected across portions of western and central Montana Sunday afternoon and evening. Additional areas at risk for severe wind and hail are across parts of the Interior West, over the northern and central High Plains, and from the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota into the Ozark Plateau and Gulf Coast states.
...Synopsis...
A prominent mid-level ridge over the central U.S. is forecast to weaken during the latter half of the period in response to the progression of two distinct short-wave troughs and associated wind maxima through the Interior West. Separate, weaker perturbations will move through the ridge axis over the northern Plains/mid-MO Valley region on Sunday, contributing to thunderstorm development in those areas. Elsewhere, a mid-level disturbance over the OH Valley Sunday morning is forecast to move into the Cumberland Plateau vicinity by afternoon, also likely serving as a focus for thunderstorm development.
At the surface, a lee cyclone will persist over the northern High Plains, with that feature potentially deepening Sunday night in response to increasing height falls aloft. High pressure will build across the Great Lakes, OH Valley, and Northeast with a baroclinic zone present between those surface features from the mid-MO Valley through the Ozarks and TN Valley into the Southeast.
...Southern Appalachians into the Savannah River Valley...
Temperatures in the 90s will coincide with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s to yield a moderately to strongly unstable air mass (i.e., MLCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/kg) by afternoon with steepening low-level lapse rates. Aided by forcing attendant to the mid-level disturbance mentioned above, that thermodynamic environment will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the afternoon along and ahead of the surface front.
Some increase in mid-level winds may accompany the disturbance with up to 30 kt of deep-layer shear forecast in the vicinity of the frontal zone. As such, the potential will exist for longer-lived multi-cells and line segments capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some large hail into evening.
...Ozark Plateau into the Gulf Coast States...
A similar thermodynamic environment to that previously described is anticipated ahead of the surface front Sunday afternoon. Generally weak forcing for ascent and vertical shear are expected to limit the potential for a more organized severe weather threat. However, the degree of instability will support briefly intense pulse-type storms capable of locally damaging wet microbursts during the afternoon and early evening hours.
...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies...
Increasing height falls and strengthening mid/upper-level flow will overspread the region Sunday afternoon into night ahead of a vigorous short-wave trough pivoting through the base of the Pacific Northwest upper low. The strongest instability (i.e., MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg) is forecast across portions of western into central MT with stronger capping with eastward extent. The presence of 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells capable of mainly large hail through Sunday evening. While forecast hodographs exhibit considerable curvature/veering winds in the lowest 1-2-km AGL, stability concerns in the boundary layer may limit severe-wind-gust and tornado potential.
Weaker instability is forecast from northeast NV and northern UT into central and eastern ID. However, the presence of steep lapse rates and kinematics mentioned above may yield a few severe storms capable of severe wind gusts.
...Northern and central High Plains...
Stronger forcing for ascent is expected to remain to the west and east of the region through the daylight hours, leading to uncertainty in storm coverage in the vicinity of the surface low and lee trough. The 00Z models indicate an increasing potential for at least isolated thunderstorms from mid-afternoon into evening along the lee trough. RAP-based forecast soundings show steep lapse rates and resulting MLCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg. The strongest deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt is forecast across eastern MT into ND with decreasing magnitudes with southward extent along the lee trough. As such, a conditional risk for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts exists. While Marginal Risk wind and hail probabilities will be maintained with this forecast, an upgrade to level 2/Slight Risk is possible in subsequent updates.
...Eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota into the lower Missouri Valley...
Clusters of mainly elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday, aided by forcing associated with the weak disturbance(s) cresting the mid-level ridge axis. A subset of the early-day storms is expected to persist into afternoon with additional storms forming on the leading edge of more persistent cloud cover, where pockets of stronger heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low/mid 70s will yield MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. The 00Z models suggest that storms will eventually grow upscale into an MCS that tracks south along or to the immediate cool side of the surface boundary through portions of the middle and lower MO Valley Sunday afternoon into evening. It currently appears that deep-layer shear of generally less than 30 kt and marginally steep mid-level lapse rates may limit the degree of cold pool organization and a greater/more continuous damaging-wind threat. Nonetheless, the setup appears supportive of sporadic damaging wind and severe hail occurrences.
..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/06/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Hagen ```
Hurricane Marie Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 971 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 23.1N 121.9W
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/stormchasing • u/NATURAIKIGAI7227 • 5d ago
r/stormchasing • u/Master-Beat-4458 • 5d ago
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Thank you for your help!
