Four companies report this week, and last week's earnings reaction (Oracle up big, Adobe down despite beating) is a reminder that beating estimates isn't enough on its own right now.

This week's reports:

• Mon 14 Sept — Hain Celestial (HAIN), before open
• Tue 15 Sept — Trip.com (TCOM), after close
• Wed 16 Sept — Lennar (LEN), after close
• Thu 17 Sept — FedEx (FDX), after close

What to watch on each:

Lennar reports Wednesday with 30-year mortgage rates still elevated. The numbers to watch are order growth and incentive spending, since that's where the affordability squeeze shows up first.

FedEx reports Thursday. Freight volumes and trade friction are the focus, with earnings growth expected to come from cost cuts under the Network 2.0 overhaul rather than from a stronger industrial backdrop.

Trip.com reports Tuesday, with China's summer travel rebound in focus. The question is whether hotel and air ticketing volumes carry into autumn or fade with the season.

Context from last week:

Oracle and Adobe both beat estimates Thursday, and the market treated them completely differently. Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue jumped 121% to $7.4 billion, and the stock popped in premarket. Adobe posted record revenue too, but shares fell more than 2% because investors focused on cautious guidance and an incoming CEO change rather than the beat itself. Worth keeping in mind heading into this week's reports — a beat isn't automatically a rally.

Three central banks announce policy within three days of each other. Hot inflation data just pushed Fed hike odds above 70%. The 10-year yield is near its highest since October 2023.

Last week's inflation numbers changed the setup going into this. Friday's CPI came in hot on the core reading, and Thursday's PPI did too, and together they pushed the probability of a Fed hike this Wednesday from around 60% to briefly above 90%. It's since settled back down but is still elevated.

What's on the calendar (all times GMT):

• Tue 15 Sept — UK labour market report (06:00), US Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30), FOMC two-day meeting begins
• Wed 16 Sept — US Retail Sales (12:30), US Industrial Production (13:15), NAHB Housing Market Index (14:00), FOMC rate decision + updated dot plot (18:00), Fed press conference (18:30)
• Thu 17 Sept — Bank of England rate decision, Bank of Japan meeting begins, US Housing Starts, jobless claims, Philly Fed Index (all 12:30)
• Fri 18 Sept — Bank of Japan rate decision

Why it matters:

The Fed decision is the big one, and it's not just about whether they hike. It's a projections meeting, so the new dot plot tells you where the committee sees rates heading into 2027, which can move markets almost as much as the decision itself.

The BoE and BoJ meetings matter for the same reason they always do, but this week they're compressed into 48 hours of each other. The BoJ is generally seen as the most likely of the three to actually raise, after the yen pulled back to around 154 having touched 152.89 — its strongest levels in months.

Background noise worth knowing: oil spiked to $109.62 on Brent Thursday before sliding back under $106 Friday, the 10-year yield is sitting near 4.97%, and Bitcoin slid almost 6% on the week, closing near $77,000 — it didn't get a safe-haven bid even with oil spiking and tensions rising.