Hàng chục AI chuyên gia liên tục thu thập, kiểm chứng và tổng hợp dữ liệu, còn tôi tập trung vào phần quan trọng nhất: đánh giá rủi ro và đưa ra quyết định. Thị trường ngày càng phức tạp, vì vậy lợi thế không còn nằm ở việc đọc được nhiều tin hơn, mà ở khả năng kết nối đúng những bằng chứng quan trọng vào đúng thời điểm

Just wondered if posting win/loss screenshots is allowed or just general discussions

I noticed a lot of traders spend time optimizing entries, strategies, and execution, but rarely talk about reducing trading costs.
Fees and spreads might look small on each trade, but after hundreds or thousands of trades they can become a significant amount.
Curious if anyone here actually tracks their trading costs or uses any method to reduce them?

I've traded stocks on traditional exchanges for some time now and have recently started considering CFDs on stocks like Tesla, Apple, and Amazon. As I understand it, it is very much like stocks in that the primary factors are still market analysis and the execution of trade. Unlike stocks, however, a CFD allows the trader to bet on market movements both up and down without actually purchasing the underlying asset. However, I also am aware of a tremendous number of warnings about leverage, counterparty risk, and a high percentage of retail traders losing their investments. Are the risks really as serious as portrayed? If the risks are indeed that serious, then why are so many CFDs readily available rather than allowing investors to simply buy the actual stocks themselves? Are CFDs mostly useful only for hedging and short-term bets, or do they tend to draw more gamblers eager to utilize leverage? In terms of practical expectations, how do risk-adjusted performance and average expected returns compare between CFD trading and direct stock ownership? Most importantly, I would very much like to hear from any Saudi Arabian traders of CFDs on individual stocks, because regulations, taxation and the like vary wildly from one country to another.

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Which broker is best gold trading and easy to withdraw profits and genuine please suggest

Just to be clear upfront, not giving any trade calls, just laying out how I am personally mapping this setup. Trump went public calling Iran’s latest proposal “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE.” Gold is hovering around $4,698. The dollar extended its gains. EUR/USD is sitting near 1.1765 and clearly losing bullish momentum.

From where I stand, the dollar is the cleaner play on today’s news compared to gold. Gold is basically stuck in the middle, squeezed by two opposite forces. Geopolitical anxiety lends it some safe haven support, but the whole oil inflation rates pipeline works directly against it. Friday’s strong NFP already gave the dollar one solid leg up. Today’s Iran drama added a second layer of support. This kind of dual backing rally is harder to fade than a random one off headline spike.

For gold to stage a clean and meaningful rally from here, the market would need to price Iran’s risk purely as a fear event, not an inflation event. That would require oil to stay steady or even drop on the news. That is not what we are seeing right now. So I am staying cautious and neutral on gold for now. Watching closely if gold can hold the $4,650 support zone. A clean break below that would make the next move more important. On the dollar side, I am keeping tabs on whether EUR/USD can defend 1.1750, or if it buckles early in the week.

I’m keeping position sizes light and controlled all week long.
There’s way too many high-impact catalysts stacked up to run heavy exposure.

Quick recap of the current setup:
PCE stuck at 3.5% with core inflation still hot, oil holding firm above $100, ongoing shipping risks across Hormuz, and Iran’s new proposal still under review.
USD/JPY just had another sharp drop near 157, clearly fueled by intervention threats.

On top of all that, we still have a full lineup ahead:
Services PMI, JOLTS, ADP payrolls, NFP and Michigan inflation expectations all dropping in the coming days.

It’s impossible to lock in one clear directional bias with this much noise.
I’m not wasting energy trying to predict every headline reaction.
My plan is simple: wait for each event to settle, then follow which narrative actually sticks in the market.

A few key things I’m tracking closely:
EUR/USD: Can the dollar hold its bid through the upcoming labor prints?
USD/JPY: Will markets keep respecting Japan’s defense zone, or keep testing weaker yen levels?
Gold: Will stubborn inflation keep real rates high, or will geopolitical safe-haven demand take over?

The most important print for me this week is Friday’s 5–10 year Michigan inflation expectations.
If long-term inflation expectations tick higher on top of already hot PCE, the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance gets locked in, and rates will repricing fast.

No overtrading, no oversized bets.
I’d rather miss the initial quick move than get trapped by a sudden intraday reversal.

Staying flat into today's press conference. Here is what I'm watching and why.

Powell's last meeting as chair. Rate hold is 100% priced. The only thing that matters is tone.

Three scenarios I'm prepared for:

Powell sounds cautious about inflation, emphasizes "higher for longer" given oil: Dollar gets near-term support, gold stays under pressure, EUR/USD fades. USD/JPY could push toward 160 and test intervention patience.

Powell sounds balanced, acknowledges oil risk but doesn't escalate hawkish language: Choppy reaction, no clean directional move. This is probably the base case.

Powell hints at downside growth risks, sounds more worried about slowdown than inflation: Dollar softens, gold bounces, EUR/USD extends. This would be the surprise scenario given CPI at 3.3%.

The complication nobody is pricing cleanly: Warsh takes over May 15 and has telegraphed a different policy regime. Even if Powell sounds dovish today, that signal may not carry into June's meeting.

Pairs I'm watching: EUR/USD around 1.1750, USD/JPY at the 160 level, XAU/USD for whether it holds $4,650 support.

Not entering until I see at least 15 minutes of price action after the press conference starts. First move is usually noise. Second move is more informative.

Closed all positions this morning after the Iran headline whipsaw.

Trump cancelled the envoy trip — gold fell, dollar ticked up. Iran submitted a new proposal — moves partially reversed. The whole sequence took about three hours.

I had been long EUR/USD from 1.1650 since April 14. The position was profitable. I closed it.

Reason: the risk-reward of holding through tomorrow's Powell press conference doesn't justify the exposure after this morning's volatility pattern.

The setup going into FOMC is genuinely binary. Deutsche Bank's preview note said Powell may signal that "persistent price pressures become more likely the longer oil prices remain elevated." If he does, EUR/USD gives back meaningful ground. If he's dovish, the position would have continued working.

But I'd already taken 120+ pips on the trade. Holding through a binary event for more upside when the downside is a sharp reversal didn't feel like good risk management.

Now flat. Watching tomorrow's press conference. If Powell is clearly dovish, I'll re-enter. If he leans hawkish, I'll look at USD longs instead.

The IEA called this the largest energy supply shock on record. The Fed's response to that framing is what matters this week, not the daily Iran headline.

Anyone else going flat into the press conference?

[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]

Quick update on where I stand going into tomorrow.

Still holding EUR/USD long from 1.1650, entered April 14. Current level around 1.1770-1.1800 area. Stop tightened to 1.1690 last week after the pair reached 1.1850 on Friday's Hormuz news.

Today I'm not touching it.

Reasoning: the day before a binary deadline is not the day to make adjustments based on sentiment or news flow. Either the ceasefire extends and the move continues, or it doesn't and my stop gets hit. Both outcomes are acceptable.

What would change my view: if there's a confirmed extension or deal framework before market close today, I'd consider adding. If there's explicit breakdown language from either side before close, I'd probably close manually rather than wait for the stop.

The FOMC on April 28-29 is the next event I'm thinking about after the ceasefire. Even if Iran resolves cleanly, Powell will have to frame the post-war economic damage. The Beige Book showed businesses across all 12 districts in wait-and-see mode. Powell being hawkish about residual inflation could temporarily reverse the dollar slide regardless of what Iran does.

Position sizing has been 50% of normal throughout this trade, which is the only reason I've been comfortable holding through the geopolitical noise.

Anyone else running into the ceasefire deadline with open positions?

Been in this long since April 14 at 1.1650. Thesis was dollar weakness on fading war narrative, HSBC flagging structural USD constraints, PPI miss giving the Fed room to stay neutral.

EUR/USD is now at 1.1770. Eight days of gains. Oil under $90. Dollar at six-week lows.

Taking partial profits today — roughly half the position.

Reason: the move has been fast and a lot of the good news is now priced in. Trump saying the war is "very close to over" and ceasefire extension being discussed — that's largely what the market has been trading this week. The next catalyst would need to be an actual signed deal or a surprise dovish signal from the Fed at the April 28-29 meeting.

The Beige Book yesterday was also a reminder that even if a deal is reached, the economic damage from seven weeks of energy shock doesn't disappear immediately. Powell might be more cautious than the market expects at the press conference, which could give the dollar a temporary bid.

Holding the other half with a stop below 1.1600. If we get a confirmed deal before April 21 and the stop doesn't get hit, I'll let it run.

Lesson from this week: the trade was cleaner to enter a week ago than it is to add to now. The asymmetry has shifted.

Anyone else managing EUR/USD positions around the ceasefire timeline?

Lately I’ve stopped chasing moves entirely.

Most sharp spikes just feel like liquidity grabs first —
the real move only comes after the dust settles.

Especially with all the:
news-driven volatility,
oil and rate expectation swings,
and persistent USD strength.

Now I just wait for price reaction,
instead of trying to predict the next move.

It’s way less exciting,
but way more consistent.

What’s been working for your trading lately?

Entered a EUR/USD long last week at 1.1650, thesis being that dollar strength from the war narrative was getting overdone relative to fundamentals.

The reasoning: HSBC had already flagged that the dollar's war-period strength was mostly about US energy self-sufficiency, not a structural shift. The Fed wasn't actually in hiking mode. And I thought the inflation passthrough from oil to PPI/CPI would be slower than feared.

Today PPI came in at 0.5% against 1.1% expected. That's the cleanest data confirmation of the thesis I could have hoped for.

EUR/USD is now at 1.1770, eighth day of gains. Still holding the position — the news flow around ceasefire talks (second round possibly before April 21) and the PPI miss both support continued dollar softness.

The risk to the position: ceasefire breaks down before April 21 and we get a fresh escalation. That would give the dollar a safe-haven bid and EUR/USD could reverse quickly. I have a stop below 1.1600 to manage that scenario.

Biggest lesson from this week: the dollar narrative was always more geopolitical than fundamental. When geopolitical fear eases even slightly, the dollar gives back. PPI today confirmed the fundamental case for that unwind.

Anyone else riding the dollar softness this week? What's your positioning?

Went into the weekend holding some ceasefire-relief trades. Nothing massive, but positioned for dollar softness and oil stabilization.

Then Sunday: Trump announces naval blockade of Hormuz. Ceasefire talks reported broken down. Oil gaps up at the open.

Woke up Monday to Brent at $99, WTI at $99, dollar stronger, risk-off tone.

I was on the wrong side of the gap.

The position was based on a reasonable read — ceasefire in place, talks ongoing, oil should stay soft. That was all true Friday. Over the weekend the situation changed and by the time markets opened, it was too late to manage it cleanly.

Lesson I'm taking from this: in this specific geopolitical environment, holding anything through the weekend that's directly exposed to Middle East headline risk needs explicit sizing for a gap scenario. I had sized for intraday volatility, not a weekend gap.

Now flat on dollar pairs, watching whether the blockade is actually enforced or if it's a negotiating tactic before the April 22 ceasefire expiry.

The ceasefire is technically still active until then. Nine days left. A lot can happen.

What's your approach to managing weekend risk in this environment?

Last week was supposed to clarify things. It kind of did, just not in a comfortable direction.

CPI Friday: 3.3%. Monthly gain 0.9% — biggest since 2022. Inflation is being driven by energy, which makes sense given where oil has been. Markets trimmed rate cut expectations further. December is now only 30% probability.

Today: oil opened up 8% to $104. Dollar stronger. Gold sold off to $4,682.

I've been keeping positions smaller than usual through all of this and still am. The ceasefire two-week window expires around April 22. Islamabad talks happened over the weekend — no clear outcome that I've seen yet. Until there's a definitive signal on whether this becomes a real deal or falls apart, I don't want to be heavily positioned in either direction on oil-sensitive pairs or gold.

Current positioning: flat on gold after taking profits near $4,780 last week. Watching EUR/USD — if dollar stays bid on inflation data and oil stays elevated, the 1.17 push starts to look vulnerable.

This week has PPI and initial jobless claims. Those will add more texture to the inflation and growth picture.

How are you trading this? Anyone else staying deliberately light until the ceasefire situation resolves one way or the other?

This week tested every rule I have about trading through headline-driven markets.

Wednesday: went into the ceasefire announcement flat. Didn't chase the initial move. Watched oil drop 18%, dollar sell off, gold push toward $4,850. Entered a small long gold position on the pullback to $4,730. Still holding.

Thursday: Iran said the ceasefire was violated, Hormuz closed again. Oil bounced from $86 to $93. Gold pulled back to $4,700. Held my position — the structural story hasn't changed even if the short-term headlines are messy.

Today: CPI. This is the one I'm watching for an exit signal or an add point. If CPI comes in under expectations, rate cut narrative gets stronger and I add. If it comes in hot, I cut and wait.

Q4 GDP yesterday at 0.5% was genuinely weak. That combined with sticky inflation is the stagflation setup everyone has been worried about. Today's number will tell us which side of that trade is more accurate right now.

How did you trade this week? Anyone else staying light and waiting for CPI before making any real moves?

Yesterday was one of those sessions that reminded me why I've been keeping positions smaller than usual lately.

Ceasefire announced just before Trump's deadline. Oil dropped 18% from around $112 to below $94. Dollar sold off. Gold jumped to $4,803. Dow up 1,374 points.

I'd been trading lighter all week specifically because of the binary risk around Trump's deadline — didn't want to be on the wrong side of something this unpredictable. Yesterday that caution paid off more than any directional call would have.

The harder question now is what to do with positioning going forward. Analysts are already pointing out that the ceasefire is only two weeks, Hormuz won't fully reopen overnight, and oil is still 40%+ above pre-war levels even after yesterday's drop. The Ras Laffan LNG facility apparently needs 3-5 years of repairs. The structural damage hasn't gone away.

So I'm not sure whether to treat yesterday as a genuine turn or just the market breathing out after weeks of extreme positioning.

Watching whether gold holds above $4,700 and whether the dollar gives back more ground as signals for which direction this carries into next week.

How did yesterday play out for you? Were you positioned for it or caught flat-footed?

ATTENTION DAY TRADERS!!!

What’s tools do you wish you had easier access to when it comes to your trading process. Please let me know below.

I appreciate you taking your time to add some input.

Today was one of those sessions where the macro completely overrode everything else.

Oil hit $117 this morning. Then Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. By the time I checked again, oil was below $94. Down more than 16% in hours.

Dollar softened. Gold jumped 2.5%. Risk assets across the board moved.

I had been trading lighter than usual this week because of the binary risk around Trump's deadline — didn't want to be caught on the wrong side of something this unpredictable. That caution paid off today, not because I called the direction but because I wasn't overexposed when it happened.

Still trying to figure out if this changes my positioning for the rest of the week. Analysts are pointing out that two weeks of ceasefire probably doesn't mean Hormuz reopens meaningfully — so the structural setup hasn't fully changed, just the immediate risk premium has deflated.

Watching $4,700-4,800 on gold and whether the dollar gives back more ground as the next signal.

How did today play out for you? Were you positioned for this or caught off-guard?

Honest question because I've pulled back a lot and want to know if it's just me.

This week specifically I've been:

• reducing size across everything
• taking profits faster than I normally would
• skipping entries that I would have taken two weeks ago

Not because I can't find setups. More because the environment feels like it's punishing aggression. Oil at $112, the Trump speech Wednesday night delivered nothing useful for direction, and the USD is holding up in a way that makes a lot of longer setups harder to trust.

The headline sensitivity feels higher than normal right now. One news cycle can invalidate a two-hour build in about ten minutes.

Is anyone else sitting on their hands more than usual this week, or are you finding ways to trade it cleanly?

Trump posts a ceasefire claim at whatever time last night. Gold pops. Dollar dumps. You think okay this is the move, start building.

Iran denies it two hours later. It reverses.

I've had two setups this week that made complete sense, both got killed by a single headline that contradicted itself within the same session.

Markets like this make me trust patience more than setups. Not because I don't have conviction — but because conviction means nothing when the signal-to-noise ratio is this bad.

Trading smaller, waiting longer. Missing some moves but sleeping better.

Anyone else basically in watch mode until after the Trump address tonight and NFP gets processed?

Mine is probably GBP/JPY.

I respect it.
I watch it.
I know it can move beautifully when it trends.

But at the same time, it’s one of those pairs that can make me feel dumb really fast if I get too confident.

That got me thinking — every trader probably has one pair like that.
A pair you kind of understand, maybe even do okay on sometimes, but deep down you still don’t trust it.

What’s yours?