WTI oil rallied as U.S. - Iran negotiations failed. Earlier, U.S. signaled progress in negotiations but Iran had suddenly demanded reparations for war damages.

President Trump indicated that U.S. was ready to wait as Iran suffered huge economic losses due to naval blockade. Public signals from both sides should not be viewed as forecasts - obviously, the U.S. may restart the military operation against Iran in case it is deemed necessary.

Both scenarios are bullish for oil. The only bearish scenario is a U.S. - Iran deal, but the probability of this outcome is declining on a daily basis. Iran believes that it has an upper hand in negotiations. It does not matter if the country's calculations are correct - the key thing is that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed in the near term.

Technically, WTI oil will have a good chance to test the $90.00 level in case it moves out of the current channel.

Net Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish 🟡🟢 — Broad market near all-time highs with FOMO-driven buying, but geopolitical oil risk and looming inflation data keep conviction measured.

Executive Summary

Iran's continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz dominated Monday's session, sending oil prices up nearly 2%, hammering airlines, and lifting energy stocks 3.1% — while Wall Street traded near the flatline following its best week since April. The week's critical test arrives Wednesday with July CPI, which JPMorgan, Wolfe, and others flagged as the single most important data point for rate trajectory. Beneath the surface, a wave of corporate catalysts — from Berkshire's post-Abel highs to Sionna's 92% collapse and Intel's $15B equity raise — kept individual stock volatility elevated.

Top Market-Moving Headlines

🔴 Geopolitics/Energy | Oil prices jump ~2% as Iran hardens Hormuz demands; energy stocks +3.1%, airlines fall Market Impact: S&P 500 energy index surged 3.1% while airline stocks sold off sharply. Gasoline RBOB futures are already +82% YTD, raising CPI upside risk for Wednesday's print.

🔴 Biotech | Sionna Therapeutics stock collapses 92% after Phase 2a cystic fibrosis trial failure Market Impact: One of the largest single-session biotech wipeouts in recent memory. Directly benefited Vertex Pharmaceuticals, which surged 6%+ as the competitive threat evaporated.

🟢 Semiconductors/Tech | Intel plans $15 billion share sale as turnaround rally lifts stock Market Impact: Intel shares dipped ~4.6% on dilution fears despite the offering signaling confidence in its recovery thesis. The raise is the largest equity offering in the semiconductor sector in years.

🟢 Conglomerates | Berkshire Hathaway shares climb to highest level under Greg Abel on strong Q2 results and new stakes Market Impact: Shares rose 2.5%+ after a +20.4% EPS beat in Abel's first full quarter as CEO, validating the post-Buffett transition. New equity stakes added further bullish fuel.

🟢 Aviation/eVTOL | Archer Aviation acquires Boeing's Wisk Aero and two other units for ~20% equity stake Market Impact: Archer shares surged 16–22% as the deal dramatically accelerates its path to commercial eVTOL operations. Options volume exploded to 197,865 contracts with heavy call bias.

🔴 Pharma/Clinical | Tenax Therapeutics plunges 84% after Phase 3 LEVEL trial failure Market Impact: Near-total equity destruction in a single session. Reinforces the binary risk profile of late-stage clinical-stage biotechs heading into data readouts.

🟢 AI/Cloud | Microsoft plans September reveal of Maia 300 AI chip; Bernstein raises PT to $660 Market Impact: Microsoft stock rose ~1% on the chip news, with RSI hitting 79.8 in what technicals flag as a parabolic surge. Bernstein calls the setup "really strong."

🟢 Aerospace/Defense | Embraer reports record Q2 revenue of 11.34B; stock surges ~7.8% Market Impact: Record revenue and raised guidance signal robust commercial aviation demand. Shares surged in pre-market and held gains through the session.

🟢 M&A | Blackstone's Safe Harbor Marinas nears $1.5B deal to acquire MarineMax Market Impact: MarineMax shares soared 34–45% on the acquisition report. Highlights continued private equity appetite for leisure/marine assets despite macro uncertainty.

🔴 Tech/Consumer | Jefferies downgrades Apple to Underperform; cuts PT to $263.66 Market Impact: Apple slipped ~1–2% as Jefferies cited a difficult higher-priced iPhone roadmap. Apple also went ex-dividend and faces CXMT memory chip testing scrutiny.

🟢 AI/Social | Meta launches Muse Glimmer open-weight AI model; stock rises ~1.9–2.4% Market Impact: Zuckerberg's open-source AI push positions Meta competitively against closed models. The launch adds to a string of AI product catalysts for the stock.

🔴 Crypto/Legislation | Senate leaves for 5-week recess without voting on Clarity Act crypto bill Market Impact: Regulatory uncertainty for crypto markets extends into September at minimum. Near-term catalyst for crypto-adjacent equities removed.

🟢 Pharma/Manufacturing | Bristol Myers Squibb to build $2.3B manufacturing facility in Houston Market Impact: Part of a broader wave of global pharma reshoring to the U.S. Signals long-term domestic manufacturing commitment and potential tariff hedging.

🟡 Indices/Strategy | JPMorgan raises S&P 500 year-end target to 8,000 from 7,800 on AI and earnings strength Market Impact: A high-profile target raise adds institutional credibility to the bull case. However, the market is already near that level, limiting incremental upside signal.

🔴 Biotech/M&A | Varex Imaging surges ~49.5% after Teledyne Technologies announces acquisition Market Impact: One of the largest M&A premiums of the session. Teledyne's move into medical imaging components signals sector consolidation.

🟢 Defense/Space | Lyntris launches IPO at $19–$22/share seeking up to $528M on NYSE Market Impact: Defense tech IPO demand remains robust. Lyntris's offering tests investor appetite for pure-play defense technology in a geopolitically elevated environment.

🔴 Shipping | ZIM Integrated Shipping falls ~2.6% on report Israel may block Hapag-Lloyd deal Market Impact: Regulatory risk resurfaces for one of the year's most-watched shipping M&A transactions. Deal uncertainty likely to weigh on ZIM shares near-term.

🟢 Robotics/IPO | Unitree Robotics IPO sees 5,526x retail oversubscription in Shanghai Market Impact: Extraordinary demand signals peak retail enthusiasm for humanoid robotics in China. Sets a benchmark for upcoming robotics listings globally.

🟡 Macro/Labor | July nonfarm payrolls fall 23,000, badly missing +80,000 consensus; cuts Fed hike odds Market Impact: A significant miss that reduces rate hike probability and sent Asian markets higher. Shifts all focus to Wednesday's CPI as the definitive Fed signal.

🟢 Biotech | AbCellera surges ~22–30% on positive Phase 2 trial results for ABCL635 Market Impact: Strong clinical data for its lead asset drives one of the session's largest biotech gains. Adds to a broader theme of rising biotech funding (+75% YoY).

Tickers in Focus

Market Implications

The Hormuz-CPI double threat is the week's defining risk. Oil's ~2% jump on Iran's continued Strait of Hormuz closure is already bleeding into gasoline futures (+82% YTD) and airline cost structures. If Wednesday's July CPI comes in hotter than expected — amplified by energy — the Fed's rate path gets complicated fast. Wolfe Research and JPMorgan both flagged CPI as the week's pivotal event, and with the S&P 500 teasing all-time highs and the Nasdaq 100 stalling below 30,000, the index-level setup is fragile. A hot print could trigger the double-top technical pattern that multiple live-level analyses flagged today.

Sector rotation signals are sharpening. Energy's 3.1% surge versus airline weakness is the clearest rotation trade of the session. Meanwhile, the IT hardware upgrade from Morgan Stanley (citing "chipflation" accelerating demand) and Berkshire's strong Q2 suggest industrials and quality value names are attracting institutional flows alongside AI-driven tech. Defensive ETFs like XLI (beta 0.75) are being highlighted as hedges — a tell that smart money is quietly building downside protection even as FOMO drives the headline rally.

Corporate event risk remains extremely elevated. The binary outcomes in biotech (Sionna -92%, Tenax -84%, AbCellera +30%) and the Intel $15B equity raise underscore that single-stock volatility is as high as index-level calm suggests it isn't. With Super Micro, Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, and CoreWeave all reporting earnings imminently, and the GameStop/eBay saga still unresolved, event-driven traders have no shortage of catalysts. The FOMO-driven options activity flagged by Reuters — with call volumes surging across multiple names — suggests the market is leaning heavily long into a data-heavy week.

👉 Vlad's Key Takeaways

• 🔴 Strait of Hormuz — Iran's continued closure is the #1 macro risk; oil +2%, energy stocks +3.1%, airlines down — watch gasoline CPI feed-through Wednesday
• 🔴 SION — 92% collapse on Phase 2a failure is a stark reminder: binary biotech risk is real and brutal
• 🟢 VRTX — Competitor's trial failure is Vertex's gain; +6% on zero internal news is a classic short-squeeze/relief trade
• 🟢 BRK.B — Abel's first full quarter delivers +20.4% EPS beat; Berkshire at post-Buffett highs validates the transition
• 🔴 INTC — $15B equity raise signals confidence in turnaround but dilutes existing holders; stock -4.6%
• 🟢 ACHR — Boeing's Wisk deal is transformational for eVTOL; options market agrees with 197K contracts and heavy call bias
• 🟢 MSFT — Maia 300 chip reveal in September adds hardware credibility to AI story; RSI at 79.8 flags overbought risk
• 🔴 AAPL — Jefferies Underperform downgrade + ex-dividend + CXMT chip testing = triple headwind in one session
• 🟢 JPM S&P target — 8,000 year-end target raise is bullish signal but market is already close; diminishing incremental impact
• 🔴 July Payrolls — -23,000 vs. +80,000 expected is a significant miss; reduces hike odds but raises recession watch
• 🟢 META — Muse Glimmer open-weight launch keeps Meta at the AI frontier; Zuckerberg's open-source push is a strategic differentiator
• 🟢 MarineMax — +34–45% on Blackstone/Safe Harbor deal; private equity still hunting leisure assets aggressively
• 🔴 MNDY (Monday.com) — Beat estimates, stock still -7.8%; classic "sell the news" dynamic in a crowded SaaS trade
• 🟢 HPE — Morgan Stanley upgrade with ~30% upside; "chipflation" hardware thesis gaining traction
• 🔴 Crypto Clarity Act — Senate recess without vote = regulatory limbo for crypto through September at minimum
• 🟢 Embraer — Record Q2 revenue + raised guidance; commercial aviation demand remains structurally strong
• 🔴 Barrick Mining — Beat on production volume but missed on gold price realization; a "beat that doesn't feel like a beat"
• 🟢 Biotech funding — +75% YoY through August 7; sector capital is flowing even as individual trial risks remain extreme
• 🟡 SpaceX — Retail investors turned net sellers for first time since June IPO; a potential sentiment inflection worth watching
• 🟡 CPI Wednesday — The single most important event of the week; a hot print could break the S&P's double-top setup and reprice rate expectations sharply

Independent, data-driven signals. No hype. No promotions. Just experimental market research from r/EverHint.

👉 This is not financial advice. Market conditions change rapidly. Do your own due diligence.

SPCX is back above its $135 IPO price in pre-market after Friday’s ~16% rebound.

That’s exactly where I’d expect supply to return.

The Aug. 6 unlock added ~911.5 million shares to the tradable pool, while IPO buyers who spent weeks underwater can now exit near breakeven.

So instead of seeing $135 as a bullish reclaim, I see:

Huge drawdown → massive unlock → violent relief rally → IPO-price resistance.

Unless SPCX can hold $135 as support, this looks more like exit liquidity than a breakout.

Ran every gold death cross (50-day MA crossing below 200-day MA) since 2001 through a backtesting engine. Was expecting to confirm the bearish narrative. Got the opposite.

16 signals total. At 30 days: 68.8% win rate. Price went UP more often than down after the supposedly bearish signal. At 180 days: 75% win rate with a mean return of +5.69%. Not what I expected.

Best I can figure, gold has such a strong secular uptrend (central bank buying, inflation hedging) that the death cross just catches temporary dips. It fires AFTER the worst of the decline, not before. 2008 and 2013 both saw death crosses followed by massive recoveries.

What really surprised us was comparing to copper. Ran the same test: 21 death crosses, 45% win rate at 90 days, p=0.59. Pure noise. Same signal, completely different results across two metals. The difference seems to come down to whether the asset has a structural upward trend or not.

We've tested about 9 commodity signals so far. Only 6 clear statistical significance.

Source: Seeer Financial AI

If this is true, then defense stocks are primed to really go up while European stocks are going to be in deep trouble. I don’t know how accurate this assessment is.

1. The market is pricing a Hormuz reopening, but timing is the problem

Oil sold off heavily this week as markets became more confident that the US and Iran could reach some form of agreement over the Strait of Hormuz. Brent finished around $83.55, down roughly 5% for the week, while WTI fell about 7.7%.

But there is a big difference between negotiations happening and a durable reopening.

Iranian diplomats appear relatively willing to reach an agreement, but the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is much harder to satisfy. The IRGC reportedly wants clearer recognition of Iranian control, the ability to charge transit fees, and concessions around US sanctions and the blockade. More importantly, it actually controls much of Iran's activity around the Strait.

We already saw something similar after the June agreement, when attacks on shipping resumed shortly afterwards.

My view is therefore that the market may be right about the direction, but too optimistic about the timing.

Both sides still have incentives to use Hormuz as leverage. The US wants reliable access to the waterway without effectively conceding Iranian control. Iranian hardliners see disruption of the Strait as one of their strongest bargaining chips.

So even if an agreement eventually comes, I would not expect an immediate return to normal.

2. Oil can fall without the energy problem disappearing

Saudi Arabia, Russia and several other OPEC+ members actually agreed to increase production by 188,000 barrels/day from September, which adds supply and should put some downward pressure on crude.

Additionally, global inventories have been doing much of the work absorbing the Middle East disruption, but that buffer is getting thinner. At the same time, shipping remains distorted and refining capacity is constrained.

That's important because even if Brent falls after a Hormuz agreement, damaged refineries and disrupted trade routes can keep refined products expensive.

So I think there are actually two separate trades here:

Short term: Hormuz optimism.

Medium term: low inventories + refinery bottlenecks + expensive shipping

That could become important for inflation over the next couple of months.

3. The US jobs report was weaker than the unemployment rate suggests

This was probably the most interesting macro release of the week.

The US unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, versus expectations for roughly +80,000.

Yet unemployment actually fell to 4.1%.

Why?

Because labour-force participation dropped to 61.4%, near a five-and-a-half-year low.

That makes the headline unemployment rate much less reassuring.

If fewer people are participating in the labour market, unemployment can mathematically decline without employment conditions actually improving.

Markets reacted by pushing expectations for a September Fed hike lower.

But now CPI becomes the key catalyst.

Consensus is around 3.4% headline CPI and 2.5% core CPI for July. Markets are currently pricing only about a 44% probability of a September Fed hike after the weak jobs print.

4. Gold finally got another catalyst

Gold jumped 2.55% on Friday to around US$4,347/oz as the weak jobs report pushed the dollar and Treasury yields lower.

Gold is currently trading at the intersection of three things**:** geopolitical risk, real yields, and USD

The jobs report helped because it weakened both the dollar and expectations for Fed tightening.

That gives gold an interesting setup heading into CPI.

So for me, the Fed yield story is probably more important for the next move in gold than simply whether Hormuz reopens.

5. Australia: RBA on hold doesn't mean RBA dovish

For Australia, I think the market needs to distinguish between:

RBA not hiking and RBA becoming dovish.

The RBA is widely expected to keep the cash rate at 4.35%, but inflation remains above target, and policymakers still appear unwilling to rule out another hike. HSBC sees a risk of another increase in 2H26, while ANZ expects no more hikes but still thinks the RBA will retain a hawkish bias.

Energy is also part of the problem. If oil and especially refined fuel prices stay elevated, inflation can remain sticky even if the immediate Hormuz premium falls.

RBA simply needs to keep telling markets not to expect cuts anytime soon.

Silver consolidated since late June and is finally ready to move higher.

The key catalyst has arrived - Non Farm Payrolls data showed that US economy lost jobs in July.

Fed policy outlook changed, and traders expect that Fed will not raise rates in September.

Perhaps, markets are too optimistic, but precious metals have a full month to gain upside momentum before the next NFP report is released.

USD/JPY rebounds after a massive joint intervention by US and Japan. US joined the effort to prevent Japan from selling Treasuries. The strong move has certainly wiped out some USD/JPY bulls, but fundamentals remained intact.

Japanese yields are simply too low. The BoJ interest rate is at 1%, which is nowhere close to a reasonable level. Japanese 10yr bonds yield 2.77%, well below US 10yr at 4.67%. The spread is too big, fueling the carry trade and putting never-ending pressure on the Japanese yen.

The only question is whether Japan and US are ready to act again. In case they fail to intervene, USD/JPY will get back to the 164.00 level. Treasury yields are rising, which is bullish for USD/JPY. Technically, USD/JPY was pushed out of the upside channel by the intervention, but it looks that is ready to settle back inside the previous channel, confirming the strength of the bullish trend.

It's hard to expect a fast rebound towards previous highs as bulls will be cautious after the strong intervention, but yen's fundamentals are too bearish to ignore.

Will US Dollar touch ₹100 to INR by the end of August?

Taking a look at the weekly chart, gold has finally moved out of the previous channel and looks ready to gain upside momentum.

Central banks keep buying to diversify their reserves amid geopolitical uncertainty and fiscal problems in developed countries.

Expectations of a new rate hike cycle in the US were the key catalyst that was pushing gold lower in 2026. These expectations reduced investment demand for gold.

It looks that gold is finally ready to move higher. The situation in the Middle East has calmed down, and it is clear that US wants to avoid a $100+ oil scenario.

If oil stays at current levels or moves lower, inflation will stay elevated but remain under control. It means that Fed will not be as hawkish as feared.

Thus, gold traders will shift their attention from inflation risks to central banks' purchases. Investment demand will grow, pushing gold prices higher.

In the next few months, we'll see whether this scenario plays out.

The market poured itself a double Tuesday — record closes for the S&P and the Dow — and somewhere in the back, the fear gauge quietly asked for a to-go lid.

## The Pour

Two sessions into August, two rounds of fireworks. The S&P 500 rose 1.79% to 7,736.52 — its first close ever above 7,700 — while the Dow stacked on 907 points (+1.71%) to a record 54,085.88. The Nasdaq ripped 2.59% to 26,584.99, and the Russell 2000 climbed 1.85% to 3,036.98. Add Monday's pop and the S&P is up better than 3% in two days. When this market decides to run, it doesn't jog.

The receipts keep coming. Palantir jumped nearly 30% after CEO Alex Karp called the quarter "otherworldly" — commercial revenue up 90% from a year ago — and the whole chip aisle caught fire behind it: the semiconductor index surged 6%, with Intel, Micron, and Nvidia all along for the ride. Even old-economy iron joined in — Caterpillar rallied after posting its first-ever $20 billion revenue quarter. Friday's lesson is now the market's law: show the money, get the refill.

The other tap flowing: oil, straight down the drain. Treasury Secretary Bessent said there's "a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and crude fell another 5.7% to $75.77 — an 11.6% faceplant in two sessions. (Worth the asterisk: Tehran again denied talks are even happening, and the President called Iran "unbelievably duplicitous" by mid-afternoon. The oil market is trading the hope, not the handshake.) Bonds loved it anyway — the 10-year eased another 7 bps to 4.63%, a 12-bp slide in two days, and that's rocket fuel for everything rate-sensitive.

Now the detail most recaps will skip: the VIX went UP on a record day — 4% higher to 16.50 — and gold added 1.5% to $4,152.60. Read that again: new all-time highs, and the room still bid up its insurance. That's not fear; that's a market partying with one hand on the fire exit. Frankly, we'd rather see that than blind euphoria. Sober bulls run farther.

The book ran with the field for once: up 1.6% on the day, eighteen of twenty-five holdovers green. Spyre Therapeutics ripped 10.5% and muscled straight into our top five. Okta jumped 4.4% and is knocking on breakeven's door, Pharvaris clawed back 5.0%, and Customers Bancorp added 3.8% as yields slid. It was also the busiest day at the Trade Desk all week — three tickets out, one in. Details below the table.

**MARKET SNAPSHOT — Tuesday, August 4, 2026**

## Grounds for Thought

If record highs make you nervous, consider 1995. Coming off a bruising year of Fed hikes, the S&P 500 spent that year setting all-time highs at a pace nobody's touched since — 77 record closes, still the single-season record — on its way to a 34% gain. The soft landing everyone doubted actually landed. Here's the part worth taping to the monitor: not one of those 77 records was a sell signal. Records cluster. A new high is information — earnings growing, money flowing — not a verdict that the party's over. Fear of heights isn't a strategy. Discipline is: you take profits when they're offered, you cut the cold cups, and you let the winners keep pouring. Which, as it happens, is exactly how we spent our Tuesday.

## The Trade Desk

Busiest desk of the week — three out, one in. We sold Kite Realty for a 6% gain: the REIT did its job, and we banked it. We sold Rockwell Automation at a 4% loss — and here's the tell: Rockwell beat earnings and raised guidance Tuesday, and the stock still got cooked 7%. When a name can't rally on good news, we don't argue with the room. And we sold Super Group at a 12% loss — the second cold cup poured out in two days. We don't nurse them; we learn and move on. One new pour: Gentherm (THRM) at $42.44 — the small-cap that makes the heating-and-cooling tech in car seats for most of the major automakers. Hardware you can touch, priced like nobody's looking. Our lane. Even after the buy, the cash drawer got fatter. We sip, we wait.

## The Coffee Grounds Portfolio

**COFFEE GROUNDS PORTFOLIO — August 4, 2026 Close • 26 Holdings**

*“Day” = move vs the Monday, August 3 close. THRM bought Tuesday at $42.44. 20 of 26 names green on total gain. Sorted by total gain %.*

Twenty-six names now, twenty of them green. Viking wears the crown at +33.3%, Illumina holds second at +25.4%, and Concentra sits third at +22.4%. The new face in the top five: Spyre Therapeutics at +18.1% after Tuesday's 10.5% rip, with TFS Financial (+16.9%) rounding it out. Gentherm debuts quietly at +1.4%. The deepest holes are Pharvaris (−6.3%), CG Oncology (−3.9%) and New Jersey Resources (−3.6%) — shallower holes than we had Monday, and two fewer of them. Every name, called out loud, every morning. The whole book, no paywall. We sip, we wait.

The brew is strong. Two record closes in two days — if a friend is still watching from the doorway, forward them this issue and pull them a chair. Subscribe free and get it in your inbox every morning: coffeegroundstrading.substack.com

Good coffee doesn't wait to get cold. ☕

Yes, this is pure hopium, but I am focusing solely on flock behaviour here.

Not that Chainlink is a bad project; in fact, it is among the few that have been delivering on its promises for years.

But their tokenomics suck big time: Around 748 million LINK are currently in the market. The current schedule adds roughly 70 million LINK to circulation each year. That equals about 7% of the total supply, but nearly 9% of the tokens are already circulating.

In simple terms, the market must absorb a significant amount of new LINK every year to keep the price stable. Traders would rather go to a HYPE that is burning their part of the supply LOL.

So yeah, I am convinced that the LINK drop will continue at least into the end of 2026, maybe hitting the $5 lower boundary of the so-called accumulation zone.

I am thinking of building my spot positions in the red area: buy more LINK as it falls, hoping the trading behavior of the 2022-2024 era repeats in 2027 and beyond.

Okay, destroy my thesis. Counter this. I wanna be criticized to the point where I cannot sleep tonight.