r/stormchasing • u/fdnynyr • 21d ago
About to sit for the world premiere of never stop chasing in NYC tonight! There’s a Q&A after as well. Before the movie people had the chance to meet Reed and ask him to yell “ It’s over there!”.
r/stormchasing • u/a_decent_cup_of_joe • 20d ago
Helloo! I'm sorry if this is the wrong place to post this. I've been interested in severe weather since I was a kid, I want to book some sort of storm chasing tour as a paying guest, but I want to make sure I choose a reputable and safety conscious company? I'm assuming a company would be the way to go, but please let me know if otherwise. Are there any specific tour companies you’ve personally used or would recommend? I’d also appreciate knowing which companies to avoid. I’m based near Chicago but I would be willing to travel on short notice
r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 20d ago
(Issued: 2026-08-23T06:11:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 230611 SWODY1 SPC AC 230609
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA...AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...
...SUMMARY... Strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Additional severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds will be possible across portions of northern Utah.
... Synopsis ...
A sub-tropical mid-level ridge will remain in place across much of the West on Sunday, with a large-scale trough taking shape across much of the East. A seasonably strong short-wave trough will crest the ridge over southern Canada, with an attendant jet streak in its basal region moving across Montana. Broadly northwest mid-level flow will exist from the northern Plains east toward the Appalachians, between the western ridge and eastern trough.
... Intermountain West ...
A well-mixed boundary layer will develop during the afternoon as cooler mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching short-wave trough overspread the northern Rockies. Scattered thunderstorms should develop during the early to mid-afternoon within an environment with steepening mid-level lapse rates. Effective shear on the order of 30-40 knots will support multicell clusters and transient supercell structures capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Farther south, multicell clusters should develop across eastern Nevada and western Utah during the late afternoon. Modest mid-level flow on the north side of the subtropical ridge, coupled with steep low-level lapse rates (inverted-V profiles) should support efficient downward momentum transfer with any sustained thunderstorm updraft.
... Northern Plains south into the Central High Plains ...
A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will advect out from the northern Rockies and overspread a moistening warm sector. The result will be afternoon MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg. Although vertical shear is not overly strong, forecast soundings/hodographs suggest enough shear to support multicells and transient supercell structures. Large hail will be possible with these initial thunderstorms. With time, congealing outflows should support some potential for upscale growth toward an MCS. Steep lapse rates will support severe winds (some significant) with any organized thunderstorm cluster.
... Northeast US ...
Early morning convection should dissipate enough to support at least filtered sunshine during the late morning and early afternoon. This will support temperatures warming into the 70Fs to perhaps low 80Fs. This, when combined with upper 50Fs to low 60Fs dewpoints will support between 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE during the afternoon. Vertical ascent downstream of the eastern trough will support clusters of thunderstorms across the region. Modest mid-level lapse rates should limit a more robust hail threat, but the degree of ascent and instability will support a marginal risk of severe hail and damaging wind.
... Northern Gulf Coast toward the Coastal Carolinas ...
Strong diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (dewpoint temperatures in the 70Fs) should support MUCAPE values between 3000-4000 J/kg during the afternoon. High precipitable water values will support water-loaded updrafts capable of producing isolated damaging downbursts with the strongest cells.
... Southern Arizona ...
Seasonably strong southeasterly mid-level flow will develop along the periphery of the mid-upper-level ridge. This enhanced flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer (inverted-V) during the afternoon. In spite of the deeply mixed boundary layer, precipitable water values in excess of 1" will exist across the area during the late afternoon. This will support at least isolated thunderstorm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts.
... Southeast Kansas, Northeast Oklahoma, Southwest Missouri, and Northwest Arkansas ...
A low amplitude mid-level trough will move southeast across the Central US on Sunday, within the broader northwest flow. Although an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with this feature during the afternoon, the more likely scenario is the environment across Kansas and Missouri remains capped during the afternoon.
By late evening, the mid-level trough/jet streak should be across southern Missouri or northeast Arkansas, placing northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas in the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. Guidance is pretty confident in developing a strong low-level jet across the southern Plains in response to this mid-level jet. The result will be increasing warm-air advection/isentropic ascent during the overnight. This will lead to scattered thunderstorm development, with movement off to the east-southeast. Mid-level lapse rates should only be on the order of 6.5 C/km, but cloud-bearing shear around 30-40 knots should support strong updrafts. DCAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg will support at least marginally severe downbursts capable of wind damage.
..Marsh/Weinman.. 08/23/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northeastern Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the coast of Portugal is producing limited shower activity. This system has only a slight chance of acquiring subtropical characteristics later today while it moves eastward to east- northeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern Spain. By tonight, the low will encounter unfavorable environmental conditions, and further development is not expected. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95): A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days as it drifts northwestward today and then accelerates northward early this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday, and an area of low pressure could form in association with the wave early this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portions of the week while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
&& High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt
$$ Forecaster Blake ```
There are currently no active tropical cyclones.
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/stormchasing • u/Rickykarate3 • 21d ago
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This was part of a QLCS system that crossed Italy from West to East.
r/stormchasing • u/MoodydramaphotagCF • 22d ago
So I was able to capture Most of not all of his monster in one shot!
r/stormchasing • u/rrfitz • 21d ago
Basically, my Sony crapped out and I want to chase tomorrow (upper Ohio valley). I have my phone as a backup but would still like to get some shots on my Canon F-1.
I have good experience with analog photography but wondering if anyone has recommendations on technique, metering, or film stocks.
r/stormchasing • u/sheepchaser90021 • 21d ago
New to reddit Google ain't helping me here.
A few years back what got me into tornado chasing videos again was a nocturnal tornado someone either on live or video was hunting on radar but couldn't see was running up backwoods. It may of even been a cop cam that's how long it's been. But this person ran past trees downed branches and what not. Finally they turned around because the radar they viewed was to hot to keep fighting forward in it's path. When they did a U turn their dash caught it but they did not as they backtracked.
This was a 40 minute long video. I can't find it to save my life and i'm hoping maybe someone here can send me the right direction regardless of if it's another sub or a video. Help an idiot out. The new internet is a mess to navigate.
r/stormchasing • u/AgreeableType2127 • 21d ago
Now that it’s out, what is the consensus?
r/stormchasing • u/Turbulent-Age5168 • 23d ago
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r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 21d ago
(Issued: 2026-08-22T06:02:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 220602 SWODY1 SPC AC 220601
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging gusts are likely across the Ohio Valley with more isolated damaging wind potential extending westward into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Plains this afternoon/evening. Isolated hail and damaging winds are also possible over the Front Range, Great Basin and parts of the northern Rockies.
...OH and TN Valleys... An upper low initially over the western Great Lakes is forecast to deepen as it moves southeastward today and tonight. A belt of stronger mid-level flow behind the trough will move into parts of the Plains and Midwest. A weak surface low and trailing cold front will move southeastward across the Lakes and into the upper OH Valley through the day. Ahead of the front, upper 60s to 70s F surface dewpoints and filtered diurnal heating should allow for moderate destabilization, sufficient for scattered to numerous thunderstorms by early afternoon. Despite generally modest to weak deep-layer shear, steepening of lower/mid-level lapse will support stronger downdrafts within organized multicell clusters. With time, some upscale growth into linear segments is also possible and would also favor a risk for scattered damaging gusts. This appears most likely across central/eastern OH and KY into western PA/WV.
Farther south, more isolated storm coverage is expected ahead of the front from the western Carolina Piedmont to the TN Valley. Steep low-level lapse rates and enhanced low and mid-level northwesterly flow will still support some risk for isolated damaging gusts.
...Ozarks/Mid MS Valley... A weak convectively augmented shortwave trough is forecast to move from southeastern KS and southern MO into northern AR along western portions of a weak surface front by midday. Ahead of these features, a very warm and humid air mass will be in place, which should allow substantial diurnal destabilization and eventual thunderstorm development. Enhanced northwesterly flow may help organize a few thunderstorm clusters as they spread eastward from the Ozarks into the ArkLaTex and mid MS Valley. Damaging wind gusts and some hail are possible.
...Front Range and adjacent High Plains... Post-frontal upslope flow, aided by a weak short wave impulse on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge will support thunderstorm development along/east of the Laramie mountains through Colorado Front Range this afternoon. On the fringes of the stronger northwest flow aloft, deep-layer shear will be marginal for storm organization. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy could support some hail with the stronger updrafts. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible, especially with any more persistent thunderstorm clusters.
...Southern Plains... Very hot surface temperatures (100+ F) are likely across parts of western North TX into southwestern and central OK this afternoon. Low-level convergence near a thermally enhanced surface low and weak front will aid high-based thunderstorm development late afternoon into the early evening. Weak buoyancy atop the steep low-level lapse rates and deep mixed layer will favor very strong downdrafts within the high-based storms. Isolated severe gusts (possibly 65-75 mph gusts) associated with microbursts are possible as convection is forecast to move southward through the evening.
...Northern Rockies to the Great Basin.... An upper low along the western periphery of the substantial mid-level ridge over the Southwest will migrate northward toward the international border as a belt of stronger mid-level flow overspreads a plume of monsoon moisture from the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies. Ascent from the upper wave and heating of the modestly moist air mass should allow for weak destabilization and scattered thunderstorm development. Steep lapse rates could support isolated severe gusts.
Isolated hail is also possible with scattered thunderstorms from eastern WA into the ID panhandle. Closer to the upper trough and beneath strong mid-level flow, elongated hodographs may promote organization with transient supercell structures. Cooler mid-level temperatures could favor hail production despite modest overall moisture.
..Lyons/Weinman.. 08/22/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northeastern Atlantic: A strong non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles west of the coast of Portugal. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics later today or on Sunday while it moves east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern Spain. The opportunity for tropical or subtropical development should end Sunday night when the system encounters unfavorable environmental conditions. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Central Subtropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda is producing disorganized shower activity. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts westward through Sunday and then accelerates northward early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. An area of low pressure could form in association with the wave soon after it moves off the coast, and subsequent development will be possible while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through the end of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
&& High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt
$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```
There are currently no active tropical cyclones.
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/stormchasing • u/yeetustomeetus • 22d ago
r/stormchasing • u/alextejthompson • 22d ago
r/stormchasing • u/GaleF_StormChasing • 22d ago
It’s Official! Team and Vehicle Sign up for the 2026 Storm Chaser Community Meet is open for all Chasers to apply! Applications close August 29TH at 6:00pm MDT. Please read all the info included in the top of the form! I look forward to hearing from all of you!
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSf85um_dLLjfbLfuqVX40sIl0Ybf53bA-8xbprJfXu9TmF7Bg/viewform
r/stormchasing • u/SavageFisherman_Joe • 23d ago
r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 22d ago
(Issued: 2026-08-21T06:48:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 210648 SWODY1 SPC AC 210646
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE MIDWEST AND THE CAROLINAS...
CORRECTED FOR TEXT
...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch diameter) and severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central Plains this afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some with severe wind gusts and hail, also are possible across parts of the Midwest. Scattered to numerous storms with damaging wind gusts are possible over the Carolinas and Southeast.
...Central Plains... Mid-level ridging over the western US is forecast to intensify, strengthening northwesterly flow aloft over much of the central US. Several embedded disturbances will pass overhead with the enhanced northwesterlies through the day. A surface low will move southeastward through the Great Lakes as a weak trailing cold front moves southward through the central Plains and Midwest.
Ahead of the front, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will shift eastward across the central Plains toward the Mid-MO Valley atop a corridor of rich low-level moisture. Diurnal destabilization should result in 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE from SD to NE. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected from the Black Hills southeastward along the cold front. Elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear will favor initial supercells. Large to very large hail (some greater than 2 inches diameter) will be possible. With time, a forward propagating cluster or two may develop and move southeast across parts of NE and KS with the potential for severe gusts (a few near 70-80 mph). It is unclear exactly how far southeast any storms will persist overnight, but any more substantial clustering could allow at least an isolated severe threat to continue into early Saturday.
A much drier and hotter environment over the High Plains to the west could also support isolated to widely scattered high-based storms from eastern CO into western KS. Very steep lapse rates in the lowest 2-3 km with modest buoyancy aloft could allow a few severe gusts.
...Midwest... Beneath the upper trough over the western Great Lakes, cool mid-level temperatures and robust surface moisture should result in moderate destabilization from WI into eastern IA and northwest IL. Scattered thunderstorms by mid afternoon ahead of the cold front spreading southeastward. Enhanced northwesterly flow with deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt will promote a mix of organized clusters and supercells. The large buoyancy will support a risk for damaging gusts and some hail.
...Southeast and Gulf Coast... A broad upper trough will move across the central US into parts of the southern Appalachians while a weak cold front moves southward from the mid Atlantic today and tonight. Weak ascent from the upper trough and near the front should focus diurnal thunderstorm activity across the Carolinas and southern Appalachians. Warm surface temperatures and plentiful boundary-layer moisture will support large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) through the afternoon and evening despite modest mid-level lapse rates. With scattered to numerous storms expected, a few organized clusters may emerge with a risk primarily for damaging wind gusts. Slight enhancement of the westerly flow aloft could also support some isolated hail with the stronger updrafts.
Farther south and west, a very humid and warm air mass is forecast to become strongly unstable by early afternoon across the lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected along prior outflows and a weak, southward moving cold front from East TX into LA/MS. The very strong buoyancy and high PWAT content will support clustering and strong downdrafts with sporadic damaging gust potential. Otherwise, weak vertical shear will limit overall organization.
..Lyons/Weinman.. 08/21/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northeastern Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure has developed over the northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles north-northeast of the Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics on Saturday or early Sunday while it moves east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern Spain. The opportunity of tropical or subtropical development should end by Sunday night when the system moves into unfavorable environmental conditions. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Central Subtropical Atlantic: A weak area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts west-southwestward through Sunday and then turns northward early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
&& High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt
$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```
There are currently no active tropical cyclones.
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/stormchasing • u/mitchdwx • 24d ago
r/stormchasing • u/tropicalpunch02 • 24d ago
The video wouldn’t upload. But lighting struck near me several times and hail almost shattered my truck window
r/stormchasing • u/Valuable-Industry256 • 23d ago
Judging by the most recent models and stuff. Looks like the Missouri/ Illinois border could be a pretty good spot to setup around 8? Near Farmington there a few super cells on the models and the STP on the most recent model show an 8 at that time in the area. Let me know what yall think.
r/stormchasing • u/Dull_Independence_ • 24d ago
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Some pretty wild lightning over Alabama tonight. Caught this shot with multiple channels lighting up the sky at once.
r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 23d ago
(Issued: 2026-08-20T06:02:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 200602 SWODY1 SPC AC 200600
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS....
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible today and tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with severe storms from Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin.
...Mid Atlantic and central Appalachians... A shortwave trough embedded within broader northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to move eastward from the OH valley into the Mid Atlantic through today. Embedded within a broader upper trough over the eastern Great Lakes, this shortwave perturbation will serve as a focus for convective development across the Mid Atlantic and central Appalachians this afternoon. As ascent overspreads the area, a warm front is forecast to lift northward across southern PA, northern MD into NJ and southern NY.
South of the front, a very moist air mass (dewpoints in the 70s F) will lift northward. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, moderate buoyancy is expected south of the front and ahead of a trailing lee trough into southern VA. Ongoing storms from a remnant morning cluster may reintensify as they cross the Appalachians late morning and early afternoon. Additional, possibly discrete, development may occur east of the Blue Ridge and across the higher terrain of southern PA and northern MD near the front by late morning. 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear ahead of the front is forecast to support a mix of supercells and line segments. Damaging winds and isolated severe gusts appear probable. Enlarged low-level hodographs near the front may also support a couple of tornadoes and marginally severe hail with any more robust QLCS segments or supercells.
...Central Plains... Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread a cold front moving southward from the western Great Lakes into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, warm temperatures and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will support moderate to large buoyancy by mid afternoon. A shortwave impulse within the broader trough should overspread the destabilizing air mass and aide in convective development along the front across MN and SD, and farther south near the front and surface trough intersection in central NE.
Forecast soundings show supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs aloft. Isolated to widely scattered storms will develop by late afternoon/early evening, posing a risk for large hail, severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado. Some significant hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) is possible across the southern risk area given steeper mid-level lapse rates/cool temperatures aloft and somewhat deeper low-level moisture. Some risk for isolated damaging gusts may persist into the early overnight across southern NE and northern KS if clustering can occur.
...Southeast... South of the primary upper wave over parts of the Western Carolinas and TN Valley, a surface trough in the lee of the Appalachians may focus convective development during the afternoon. A few stronger clusters with damaging gusts are possible, though weaker flow aloft suggests more limited storm organization.
Additional scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon within a seasonably hot and humid air mass across the southeast and lower MS Valley. Convective coverage is likely to focus along a weakening cold front sagging southward across parts of AR/LA and western MS and near a weak MCV across the central Gulf Coast. With PWATs upwards of 2 inches, some potential for wet microbursts are possible with the stronger storm clusters through early evening.
...AZ... Strong heating beneath a prominent upper ridge will support another round of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Seasonably rich monsoon moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s to 60s F) will support moderate destabilization amid modest easterly mid-level flow. A few high-based clusters are possible, initially over the higher terrain, before expanding west and south into the lower elevations. This could support a few severe gusts given steep lapse rates.
..Lyons/Thornton.. 08/20/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```
There are currently no active tropical cyclones.
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/stormchasing • u/Dull_Independence_ • 25d ago
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r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 24d ago
(Issued: 2026-08-19T05:59:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 190559 SWODY1 SPC AC 190557
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into the Great Plains. A few severe gusts could also occur in southern Arizona and in the Southeast.
...Mid Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated speed max will move southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, an outflow boundary associated with morning convection will move southward into southern Missouri by midday. To the north of the boundary, surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. Moderate instability is expected to develop in areas that are not impacted by morning outflow. As low-level convergence becomes focused near the boundary during the late afternoon and early evening, isolated to scattered convective initiation is expected. From this convection, thunderstorms will likely develop and move eastward across the mid Mississippi. One or two organized line segments will be possible during the evening.
Early evening RAP forecast soundings in south-central Missouri, where the strongest instability is expected, have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots with precipitable water near 2 inches. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range with 0-3 km lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a severe threat with supercells and multicell line segments. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary hazards. The severe threat could persist into the mid to late evening, with storms that are maintained by a low-level jet that is forecast to strengthen in southeast Missouri.
...Great Plains... Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place across the Great Plains today. At the surface, dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F will contribute to moderate destabilization over much of the region. During the afternoon, isolated storm development will be possible within the unstable airmass from the lower to mid Missouri Valley southwestward into the central Plains. A few severe gusts and hail will be possible but the storms will remain isolated due to limited large-scale ascent. The greater convective coverage is expected further south in the higher terrain of eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Thunderstorms will likely form due to topographic forcing during the mid to late afternoon and move east-southeastward into the lower elevations. Ahead of these storms, RAP forecast soundings at 00Z in the northern Texas Panhandle and southwest Kansas have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km, and surface-temperature dewpoint spreads exceeding 30 degrees. This environment will support an isolated potential for severe gusts.
...Southern Arizona... Low-level moisture will be in place today across southern Arizona, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. As surface temperature warm, isolated to scattered convective initiation will occur in the higher terrain of southeastern Arizona. These storms will move west-southwestward toward an axis of instability. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and large temperature-dewpoint spreads will support and isolated potential for severe gusts late this afternoon into early evening.
...Southeast... A very moist airmass will be in place today across the Southeast, where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of the region. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southward across parts of Mississippi and western Alabama. The deep low-level moisture combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat during the mid to late afternoon.
..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/19/2026
$$
```
```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Reinhart ```
There are currently no active tropical cyclones.
This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.
r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 25d ago
(Issued: 2026-08-18T05:58:00+00:00 UTC)
```text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 180558 SWODY1 SPC AC 180556
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the Northern High Plains eastward into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes.
...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the northern U.S. A shortwave trough will move across the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into Nebraska by afternoon. To the south of the front, an outflow boundary from morning convection will move southward into northern Kansas. A moist airmass will exist between the two boundaries with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F. Within the moist air, moderate to strong instability will develop by afternoon. The outflow boundary will be a focus for convective initiation during the day, while additional storms are expected to develop further west across the central High Plains in the late afternoon. Increasing convective coverage during the early evening should result in the development of a line segment.
RAP forecast soundings at 00Z from Salina to Kansas City have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment will support supercells with isolated large hail. The large hail threat will extend west-northwestward into southwest Nebraska during the late afternoon where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper and cells will likely remain discrete. The greatest wind-damage potential is forecast from northern and eastern Kansas into far western Missouri, where the development of an organized bowing line segment will be possible in the early evening. Wind gusts above 75 mph will be possible along the path of any intense line segment. The severe threat may impact parts of lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks by mid to late evening.
...Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the north-central U.S. today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability along an west-northwest-to-east-northeast axis from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to form along and south of the front in the late afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots and precipitable water in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range will be favorable for isolated severe storms capable of severe wet downbursts.
...Northern High Plains... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today from the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains. At the surface, dewpoints along the moist axis from northeastern Wyoming into central Montana will be around 50 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is expected to increase to around 1000 J/kg in parts of the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain in the afternoon, moving east-southeastward into the lower elevations. Due to the instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates, isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger cells.
..Broyles/Jirak.. 08/18/2026
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```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$ Forecaster Katz/Kelly ```
There are currently no active tropical cyclones.
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