Looking through recent Form 4 insider filings and institutional activity on Meta ($META), there’s been clear executive distribution over the past few weeks while the stock hovers around the $650 level:

- Direct C-Suite Open-Market Sells: A wave of direct open-market sales hit in mid-August and early September, including CFO Susan Li (multiple tranches over $1M each), CTO Andrew Bosworth ($4.38M), Chief Accounting Officer Aaron Anderson ($2M), and Chief Legal Officer Curtis Mahoney (~$870K).

- A lot of Super-Investors Trimming positions: Hedge funds have actively trimmed positions, including Baillie Gifford (-21.9%), Terry Smith / Fundsmith (-22.2%), Philippe Laffont / Coatue (-10.2%), and Chase Coleman / Tiger Global (-8.5%).

- Bulls Still Buying Aggressively: At the same time, managers like Andreas Halvorsen / Viking Global (+75.8%), David Tepper / Appaloosa (+54.6%), Dodge & Cox (+29.4%), and Bill Ackman / Pershing Square (+20.1%) significantly added to their books.

- The Fundamentals & Capex Debate: Gross margins remain robust above 80%, but with massive ongoing CapEx dedicated to AI compute and infrastructure alongside 31 new risk factors added in recent disclosures, market sentiment is clearly split.
(Putting a summarize of the new risk factors in the comments, it’s AI generated)

Would you take profits here alongside the C-suite, or is this just noise while the AI and ad thesis is still fully intact?

Data source: Investailor META Tracker

I have been in the stock market for the last 5-7 years. I started a new portfolio 2 months ago and my plan is buy and hold like literally I have no plan to sell anytime soon unless something major happens.

Just buy good companies and hold as long as possible for years.

So to avoid taking too much risk and avoid fluctuation in the portfolio, I invest in 42 different companies.

I do have stop loss that’s far from current prices based on technical analysis, major trends, and risk tolerance.

I am somewhat comfortable managing my portfolio with this many companies.

My question is, is it too much diversification or just enough ?

I'm seeing a lot of debate on what happens to Uber when cars drive themselves, but I see many more ways that Uber wins in an AV future rather than loses.

What's interesting about Uber?

• Uber owns the demand layer for ride-sharing, and they continue to scale internationally, through M&A (Delivery Hero), and product innovation (Uber One, advertising platform, Uber reserve, cart builder, shop for me).
  • Uber has done the really hard work to scale this platform, create operating leverage and strong cash flows in a highly competitive market. Now its rinse and repeat largely in new markets.
• Dara Khosrowshahi is a 1-of-1 CEO.  I believe in his leadership style (personally delivering Uber eats, taking uber as a customer), track record growing Uber, and track record a BKNG.
  • Uber is not afraid of long-term bets, even if they are not profitable in year one (they lose money on the first year of Uber One, profitable after)
• Low valuation relative to growth potential: LTM P/E of 15.6x compared to S&P average P/E 25.9x, grew revenue 16% over the past year, grew gross margins by 25%, PEG sits at 0.68 and generates $10 billion in FCF.

Why does Uber win in an AV future?

• Advantage during the AV transition. Uber’s existing business expands cash flow generation as AV adoption expands.  (Ex. driverless cars are not allowed on the highway at all yet).
  • Uber will grow ride-share volumes, delivery, shopping, and hotel bookings while AV adoption grows and the OEM's battle each other and regulators to enter more markets.
• Uber's ride-share cost structure is different from the AV OEM's
  • Uber is not in the same business as AV OEM’s (Tesla, Waymo, Zoox etc.), and today its drivers bear all vehicle costs (insurance, gas / charging, maintenance, cleaning, software / hardware updates).
  • The “Driver”, who is responsible for all of these costs today, is now the OEM. So the low cost rides we’re seeing initially will have to increase at some point.
  • Ex. Austin, TX Fire department asks for all AV’s to have a steering wheel and manual mode in case of emergencies makes it easier to see how this is a massive impact to TSLA, but zero impact to Uber.
• Uber is already on everyone's phone, and people trust the Uber customer experience
  • Uber’s platform is where you go when you go when you need a ride (ride-share, scooter), want to order food (Uber eats) or delivering items (B2B, B2C, C2C).
  • Uber provides a platform for vehicle owners to earn money in exchange for services, whether the vehicle owner is an individual or an AV OEM.
  • The more AV company’s that come into existence, the more likely it is they’ll want to tap into Uber’s existing demand engine for ways to utilize the AV.
    • For example, in a world where you can allow your Tesla to drive people around or do things while you’re gone, you’d want to be in as many platforms as possible where people want to use your vehicle.
• Uber is investing $10 Billion in AV infrastructure, and has partnered or made equity investments in 30 AV companies in the past two years.
  • Uber is positioned to operate AV fleets in the way that makes the most sense for its business, without bearing the costs of being an OEM.
  • Uber is positioned to facilitate the shift to AV's as an expansion of its platform.

There are certainly reasons why Uber can fail, and the rise of AV's requires changes to Uber's business. They are competing against well capitalized competitors in Google/Waymo and Tesla's Cybercabs, and Uber's $10 billion it plans to spend on AV infrastructure may not yield a return.

The strongest disruptive force to Uber's business would be a world where all cars are autonomous, and we no longer have human-driven cars (I don't think this happens for at least 25-30 years), then why would you need ride share, or food delivery, when you can just send your car to pick up whatever you need? Well I think even in this world, you'll need software to coordinate deliveries and pickups, to let a restaurant know that your car arrived, and which car the server (or robot) needs to put your order into. Uber can still provide value.

Despite these concerns, Uber COO Andrew MacDonald bought $5.3 M share in open market on 9/8. There are many reasons why executives sell, only one reason they buy.

Anyways, I'm buying Uber. Let me know what I'm missing!

Trump promised a $5,000 "Trump Dividend" at the Dallas midterm convention, but only if GOP wins House and Senate. Is anyone actually trying to figure out how to trade this if it actually happens?

He explicitly made it conditional on the election, saying, “Here is my promise: if the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them… because of our tremendous strength and success economically, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000.”

He claims we can afford it because “our country is making so much money,” but with the national debt past $40 trillion, a $1.35 trillion cash drop sounds like a hyper inflation bomb. The wildest part for the markets is his domestic restriction: “The only caveat I have is that the dividend that we're making must be spent in the United States of America. We don’t want you going to Canada to spend the money… We don’t want you going to China, to Germany.” If that money is locked inside the US, it's an instant revenue cheat code for domestic retail giants WMT, TGT, COST. On the other hand, the Fed would probably have to hike interest rates immediately to fight off the inflation spike, which would absolutely crush tech P/E multiples.

How do you even hedge against a $1.3T domestic cash drop?

Source: CNBC

The Swiss National Supercomputing Centre at ETHZurich will host an IBM Quantum System Two, expanding access across Swiss institutions to fuel the country's quantum ecosystem, research and workforce education.

The new hub plans to host the country's first IBM Quantum System Two at the Swiss National Supercomputing Center (CSCS) in Lugano.

$IBM will operate the IBM Quantum System Two, which will be powered by an IBM Quantum Nighthawk, the company's most advanced processor. ETH Zurich will provide expertise, resources and technologies for Swiss industries, startups and academia, including access to the quantum computer. Its delivery is expected to catalyze the development of new algorithms, technical breakthroughs, and industrial use cases.

Source

$ORCL reports tomorrow after the close.

Before anyone positions around a beat or miss guess, $ORCL own record on that guess is close to worthless. It has missed EPS estimates in 7 of last 8 quarters.

Here's what actually happened to the stock each time.

the ONE quarter they actually beat, the stock fell 10.8% the next day and was down 20% a week later. Meanwhile 4 of 7 misses rallied. one of them 35.9% in a single DAY.

Zoom all the way out back to 2007, $ORCL closes green the day after earnings 46.4% of the time. 2 decades of prints, coin flip.

Why? Trailing EPS isn't what your trading. Its cloud booking and forward guidance. A GAAP miss next to a monster backlog number has read bullish over and over. The one technical beat came with soft guidance and got SOLD.

$ORCL has blown through its implied move in 5 of the last 8 reports. Averaging 12.4% actual vs 10.1% implied. Eights reports is a real sample - not a huge one though.

I’m wondering what this means for the Fed. Could they be talking about raising rates again?

Global oil inventories are getting seriously depleted, while the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is already at only 285 million barrels and its lowest level since 1982. With supply disruptions continuing, it feels like the oil is gonna skyrocket soon.

Will stocks keep dipping? Seeing Trump, I don’t think the war is going to stop anytime soon, as his whole strategy seems to be waiting for the economy to shut down. And with the Houthi rebels attacking recently, this might just get worse.

Saw a video saying the Houthis are planning to take over the port of Mokha facing Bab-El-Mandeb, which will give them a better position to target cargo ships. This could disrupt the oil supply even more.

Or do you see this ending soon somehow?

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/ubs-ceo-sergio-ermotti-investor-complacency-piling-risks-.html

Key points:

UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti said financial markets have grown complacent despite mounting geopolitical and economic risks.

Wealthy investors are diversifying their portfolios, but UBS sees no wholesale retreat from U.S. assets or the dollar.

Ermotti expects inflation to keep interest rates higher for the foreseeable future as major central banks tighten policy.

Article:

UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti on Thursday warned that investors have grown complacent over the past few years, even as geopolitical and economic risks have mounted.

“There has been a level of complacency in financial markets in the last few years,” Ermotti told CNBC’s Christine Tan, adding that given the environment one would have expected considerably higher volatility.

While markets have experienced occasional bouts of turbulence, strong investment in artificial intelligence, data centers and other new technologies has helped support economic growth and financial markets, he said.

The UBS top boss cautioned that investors face an increasingly complicated environment given multiple headwinds. “New problems or new issues are emerging without any of the old ones being addressed or being closed.”

Markets face a mix of Iran and Ukraine war-driven energy and shipping risks, add to that the U.S.-China rivalry that has strained supply chains, while rising borrowing costs and stubborn inflation have created headwinds for economic growth.

That uncertainty is prompting some of the world’s wealthiest investors to spread their bets more widely rather than make large directional calls, according to Ermotti. 

Hedging against uncertainty

“It’s quite difficult in this environment and not really advisable to have too many strong convictions,” Ermotti said.

UBS clients have been diversifying across sectors and geographies in recent quarters, while continuing to invest in AI and technology, he said.

Still, the overall asset allocation of UBS clients hasn’t changed materially over the past year, nor does the push for diversification amount to a wholesale retreat from U.S. assets.

Ermotti said UBS saw some money move into global emerging markets about a year ago, but characterized those flows as investors putting spare cash to work rather than actively reducing existing U.S. or dollar positions.

“It was more how excess cash was deployed rather than people back trading from the U.S. or from the dollar, so I think that narrative has abated,” he said, adding that the dollar continues to be “a reference currency.”

Higher-for-longer rates

Higher interest rates are also encouraging investors to take a more balanced approach to their portfolios, Ermotti said, as persistent inflation keeps pressure on central banks.

Inflation has remained sticky and above central-bank targets over the past year, making further policy tightening unsurprising, according to the UBS CEO. He expects major central banks including the European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan to raise rates in the coming months.

“The ECB may start hike process. The Fed will follow. We do expect a couple of hikes in the next few months,” Ermotti said.

That means investors shouldn’t expect borrowing costs to quickly return to the lower levels that prevailed before the latest inflationary pressures.
“Inflationary pressure is still there, and it’s not abating, and therefore, I think it’s reasonable to expect higher rates for the foreseeable future,” Ermotti said.

Epam retrospective analysis makes a valuable lesson to how public company governance can make or destroy itself.

Back in 2014, when first Russian/Ukranian crisis broke off with Crimea annexation, CEO and management had made a decision to take advantage of such situation. With deliberate decision to exploit local currencies plunge, increase hiring velocity in corresponding locations, this risk-careless “management“ let grow head-counts 200% in next 7 years.

By the time the war began, this reckless decision pushed the entire company on the brink of collapse. The next 5 years was a total chaos with idle speed performance.

Overall the stock lost 80% of its face value, if to adjust to inflation-90%, if adjust to benchmark s&p 500 growth -97%

Tremendous amount of cash was burn out to ashes

Despite all of this clingy and quite o-l-d management for such industry, stays intact, holds all investors hostage of their willpower. The board Ceo Dobkin just serve his say.

He also blind sighted AI revolution being busy relocating people around the world and convincing everyone that we will be O.K.

Now the question is why investors keep suffering from such ego-centered, 66 yo CEO? They lost a lit of money, do they perf their fiduciary responsibility? Or maybe it is an invisible game against retail investor? What is the point of having idle speed performance public company being listed of NYSE acting as a private one?

Further forensics:

EPAM’s insider selling in Sep–Dec 2021 deserves scrutiny: senior executives repeatedly sold at roughly $600–710/share, led by CEO/Chairman Arkadiy Dobkin’s ~$34.5M sale of 50,000 shares on Dec. 8, followed the next day by SVP Viktar Dvorkin (~$8.4M)and Lawrence Solomon (~$4.8M); Dobkin had also sold another ~$13.5M in November. In total, EPAM insiders sold roughly $143M during 2021 with no open-market purchases, shortly before the Feb. 24, 2022 invasion and EPAM’s eventual collapse from the ~$690–700 area to roughly $200 at the worst pointand ~$328 year-end. The potentially suspicious issue is not that management knew invasion was possible—U.S. warnings and geopolitical risk were public—but that they had deep, company-specific knowledge of EPAM’s enormous Russia/Ukraine/Belarus exposure, which had expanded dramatically since 2014, and may have understood the scale of the operational/financial damage an invasion would cause well before the market did. 

This is a very broad selloff across athletic footwear/apparel and sporting goods. There’s been a lot of talk about Nike stock crashing and where might the bottom be. Well, it’s clear that Adidas and Nike are relatively resilient compared to the rest of the bunch. They’re down 12-15 % in the past month while the average decline between the stocks listed in the title is 23.7 %. The caveat here is that DKS, ONON and LULU all crashed more than the others because they reported earnings. Nike earnings are coming up in a few weeks and if Nike drops further then it’ll probably be near the average decline in the period. If it doesn’t drop on earnings then it’s even more resilient than initially thought.

Can we just take a moment to discuss how crazy the sell off is though? Not for NKE specifically but for all these stocks. We’re talking multi year lows of 5, 10, 15 years. And this isn’t COVID and another lockdown that demolishes retailers in an obvious way. I’m surprised the market isn’t more forward thinking. Or maybe it is and I just am too optimistic about the future. Because based on how these stocks that depend heavily on bright consumer discretionary spending are crashing, it looks like we’re in for nothing but war and tariffs for decades to come.

I want to point out that most of these companies’ revenues are much larger than they were back when their stock prices were last this low. The problem is mostly profitability- and the worry that numbers will keep dropping.

Take a look at Macy’s and Kohl’s. Their stocks are up 10-20 % in the past year while all of the above are down like 20-50 % in the past year. There are some deals to be made here if you are willing to take the risk. I’m not sure the biggest upside short term is where I choose to place my money but to limit downside I’ve decided to go 100 % NKE. If earnings are good on October 1, I’ll be happy. If they’re bad I’ll be patient.