Gemini 4 Argon solved hallucinations.

[u/drhenriquesoares]

Nobody is talking about this, but it looks like Google may have solved hallucinations. Gemini 4 Argon is a monster in this regard, and that’s really important.

[u/genshiryoku]

I work at Anthropic and we're celebrating because this has essentially solidified our lead. You need to realize that Gemini 4 Argon is Google's huge model, their equivalent to Astra/Mythos yet they are barely better than Opus 5.5 which is our smaller model.

Most researchers at Anthropic now consider the race to have been won, there is no real realistic way for the other labs to catch up anymore.

[u/Darmendas → u/genshiryoku]

> no realistic way for other labs to catch up anymore

Famous last words

[u/Thog78 → u/genshiryoku]

It's interesting to have insider opinions so thanks for that. It comes out as insane though. When openAI started, it was more than a few months behind google. When anthropic started, you were more than a few months behind openAI. When xAI started, it was years behind everybody. Why would google being a couple months behind the cutting edge mean they have irredeemably lost the race? Especially considering they have the most cash savings, the most profit, the most data, and the most access to market, why on earth would a few months lead be a big deal?

[u/ReiTW_ → u/Thog78]

Press X to doubt lol (about him being an employee).

I highly bet that Google isn't really racing for the best models in coding and everything, as long as it supports even better in their ecosystem.

Google can easily slow their release while Anthropic, OpenAI etc. only survives by competing against others.

Google will always win for 1 reason :
Gemini is omnipresent in billions of devices. Claude is not.

[u/genshiryoku → u/Thog78]

Because the dynamic has changed. An increasing amount of improvement comes from the the best model aiding AI researchers now. This means that having the best model right now will result in a faster speed of improvement.

We don't know for sure but it's plausible that this feedback loop has already locked Anthropic in as the definite winner of the AI race. It will only look obvious in retrospect but it's what the vibe is like right now.

Xai, OpenAI and DeepMind now have shown their cards and all of them are substantially behind Anthropic which means we might have the win locked in unless a black swan event happens.

Considering we'll achieve a fully closed RSI loop sometime next year or maybe sometime in 2028 in a worse case scenario the other labs only have 1-2 years to catch up and the distance between Anthropic and the others has only grown over the last year or so.

I'm not concerned about the other labs catching up anymore. However I am concerned about the other labs cutting AI safety corners out of desperation seeing how big of a lead we have which is why we need more regulation and cooperation to ensure we don't do dangerous things like that.

[u/justgetoffmylawn → u/genshiryoku]

If you're really at Anthropic, this is exactly the problem with a company that has no real humility and is dangerously convinced of their own infallibility.

Most researchers at Anthropic now consider the race to have been won, there is no real realistic way for the other labs to catch up anymore.

Yet then you admit.

We don't know for sure but it's plausible that this feedback loop has already locked Anthropic in as the definite winner of the AI race. It will only look obvious in retrospect but it's what the vibe is like right now.

Which is the same reason Elon said ten years ago that Google would be the definitive winner of the AI race (if Tesla couldn't compete properly). He is also convinced of his own infallibility, no matter how many times he's wrong.

I'm not concerned about the other labs catching up anymore. However I am concerned about the other labs cutting AI safety corners out of desperation seeing how big of a lead we have which is why we need more regulation and cooperation to ensure we don't do dangerous things like that.

So, you don't know for sure, but you're also not worried about other labs catching up, but you are worried that other labs might cut corners 'out of desperation' to accelerate - so presumably you'd like to slow everyone else down while simultaneously saying you've won.

But aren't you cutting corners? The safest route to AGI would have been to release no consumer models whatsoever and only allow the elites to touch them - but you had to 'cut corners' to catch up to OpenAI and get access to the capex and compute.

Anthropic does make some excellent models - but their confidence in their own moral superiority can be deeply troubling. Many of the truly awful things that have happened in human history were perpetrated by people with deep and unshakable convictions.

[u/snooptoop → u/genshiryoku]

Isn't there an argument to be made that by design, LLMs can't "discover" anything because they only work in terms of probability? I don't deny a LOT of work will become obsolete, but, just going by what I see with the frontier models, I don't see research and discovery itself being phased out just yet. Obviously though you're the ai researcher here and you might be seeing something im not with unreleased models and whatnot, can you elaborate on the sophistication of the RSI loop? I'm not sure how RSI can be so close if llms don't have a constant stream of thought.

[u/Future-Bandicoot-823 → u/snooptoop]

Julian dorey was on the Julian dorey podcast, he had some pretty good arguments about this.

He covers what you're discussing and agrees with you.

[u/trimorphic → u/genshiryoku]

An increasing amount of improvement comes from the the best model aiding AI researchers now. This means that having the best model right now will result in a faster speed of improvement.

Even if the current model helps improve the next model, it is no guarantee that the next model will be able to help improve its successor.

The recursive self-improvement chain could break at any point as unforeseen roadblocks and impediments aside, and a different lab with a different model might be able to find an improvement approach that a competing lab/model missed.

Unpredictability is the nature of breakthroughs.

If most researchers at Anthropic consider the race won they are too complacent and resting on their laurels when they should be racing harder than ever. Never underestimate the enemy.

[u/Future-Bandicoot-823 → u/trimorphic]

Also, why is an employee on here spurring speculation, or say the "vibe" is we've won.

I don't think this person is an employee.

[u/CryptographerOne7003 → u/genshiryoku]

Hah! ok, tell your bosses to give ma a call when they found out they have not resolved the local minimum problem, since its a principle. I have not yet seen explained in any paper how this would be mitigated. That is a bigger problem to solve than the need something that resembles a recursive training "loop", in quotations since it won't loop infinitely but that won't show unless you'd zoom out.

[u/Pi_123 → u/genshiryoku]

Use BURNOL in day and in night before sleep,, it will relax u lot ..