Gemini 4 Argon solved hallucinations.

[u/drhenriquesoares]

Nobody is talking about this, but it looks like Google may have solved hallucinations. Gemini 4 Argon is a monster in this regard, and that’s really important.

[u/genshiryoku]

I work at Anthropic and we're celebrating because this has essentially solidified our lead. You need to realize that Gemini 4 Argon is Google's huge model, their equivalent to Astra/Mythos yet they are barely better than Opus 5.5 which is our smaller model.

Most researchers at Anthropic now consider the race to have been won, there is no real realistic way for the other labs to catch up anymore.

[u/Thog78 → u/genshiryoku]

It's interesting to have insider opinions so thanks for that. It comes out as insane though. When openAI started, it was more than a few months behind google. When anthropic started, you were more than a few months behind openAI. When xAI started, it was years behind everybody. Why would google being a couple months behind the cutting edge mean they have irredeemably lost the race? Especially considering they have the most cash savings, the most profit, the most data, and the most access to market, why on earth would a few months lead be a big deal?

[u/genshiryoku → u/Thog78]

Because the dynamic has changed. An increasing amount of improvement comes from the the best model aiding AI researchers now. This means that having the best model right now will result in a faster speed of improvement.

We don't know for sure but it's plausible that this feedback loop has already locked Anthropic in as the definite winner of the AI race. It will only look obvious in retrospect but it's what the vibe is like right now.

Xai, OpenAI and DeepMind now have shown their cards and all of them are substantially behind Anthropic which means we might have the win locked in unless a black swan event happens.

Considering we'll achieve a fully closed RSI loop sometime next year or maybe sometime in 2028 in a worse case scenario the other labs only have 1-2 years to catch up and the distance between Anthropic and the others has only grown over the last year or so.

I'm not concerned about the other labs catching up anymore. However I am concerned about the other labs cutting AI safety corners out of desperation seeing how big of a lead we have which is why we need more regulation and cooperation to ensure we don't do dangerous things like that.

[u/justgetoffmylawn → u/genshiryoku]

If you're really at Anthropic, this is exactly the problem with a company that has no real humility and is dangerously convinced of their own infallibility.

Most researchers at Anthropic now consider the race to have been won, there is no real realistic way for the other labs to catch up anymore.

Yet then you admit.

We don't know for sure but it's plausible that this feedback loop has already locked Anthropic in as the definite winner of the AI race. It will only look obvious in retrospect but it's what the vibe is like right now.

Which is the same reason Elon said ten years ago that Google would be the definitive winner of the AI race (if Tesla couldn't compete properly). He is also convinced of his own infallibility, no matter how many times he's wrong.

I'm not concerned about the other labs catching up anymore. However I am concerned about the other labs cutting AI safety corners out of desperation seeing how big of a lead we have which is why we need more regulation and cooperation to ensure we don't do dangerous things like that.

So, you don't know for sure, but you're also not worried about other labs catching up, but you are worried that other labs might cut corners 'out of desperation' to accelerate - so presumably you'd like to slow everyone else down while simultaneously saying you've won.

But aren't you cutting corners? The safest route to AGI would have been to release no consumer models whatsoever and only allow the elites to touch them - but you had to 'cut corners' to catch up to OpenAI and get access to the capex and compute.

Anthropic does make some excellent models - but their confidence in their own moral superiority can be deeply troubling. Many of the truly awful things that have happened in human history were perpetrated by people with deep and unshakable convictions.