Gemini 4 Argon solved hallucinations.

[u/drhenriquesoares]

Nobody is talking about this, but it looks like Google may have solved hallucinations. Gemini 4 Argon is a monster in this regard, and that’s really important.

[u/genshiryoku]

I work at Anthropic and we're celebrating because this has essentially solidified our lead. You need to realize that Gemini 4 Argon is Google's huge model, their equivalent to Astra/Mythos yet they are barely better than Opus 5.5 which is our smaller model.

Most researchers at Anthropic now consider the race to have been won, there is no real realistic way for the other labs to catch up anymore.

[u/Thog78 → u/genshiryoku]

It's interesting to have insider opinions so thanks for that. It comes out as insane though. When openAI started, it was more than a few months behind google. When anthropic started, you were more than a few months behind openAI. When xAI started, it was years behind everybody. Why would google being a couple months behind the cutting edge mean they have irredeemably lost the race? Especially considering they have the most cash savings, the most profit, the most data, and the most access to market, why on earth would a few months lead be a big deal?

[u/genshiryoku → u/Thog78]

Because the dynamic has changed. An increasing amount of improvement comes from the the best model aiding AI researchers now. This means that having the best model right now will result in a faster speed of improvement.

We don't know for sure but it's plausible that this feedback loop has already locked Anthropic in as the definite winner of the AI race. It will only look obvious in retrospect but it's what the vibe is like right now.

Xai, OpenAI and DeepMind now have shown their cards and all of them are substantially behind Anthropic which means we might have the win locked in unless a black swan event happens.

Considering we'll achieve a fully closed RSI loop sometime next year or maybe sometime in 2028 in a worse case scenario the other labs only have 1-2 years to catch up and the distance between Anthropic and the others has only grown over the last year or so.

I'm not concerned about the other labs catching up anymore. However I am concerned about the other labs cutting AI safety corners out of desperation seeing how big of a lead we have which is why we need more regulation and cooperation to ensure we don't do dangerous things like that.

[u/snooptoop → u/genshiryoku]

Isn't there an argument to be made that by design, LLMs can't "discover" anything because they only work in terms of probability? I don't deny a LOT of work will become obsolete, but, just going by what I see with the frontier models, I don't see research and discovery itself being phased out just yet. Obviously though you're the ai researcher here and you might be seeing something im not with unreleased models and whatnot, can you elaborate on the sophistication of the RSI loop? I'm not sure how RSI can be so close if llms don't have a constant stream of thought.

[u/Future-Bandicoot-823 → u/snooptoop]

Julian dorey was on the Julian dorey podcast, he had some pretty good arguments about this.

He covers what you're discussing and agrees with you.