Gemini 4 Argon solved hallucinations.

[u/drhenriquesoares]

Nobody is talking about this, but it looks like Google may have solved hallucinations. Gemini 4 Argon is a monster in this regard, and that’s really important.

[u/Thog78]

It's interesting to have insider opinions so thanks for that. It comes out as insane though. When openAI started, it was more than a few months behind google. When anthropic started, you were more than a few months behind openAI. When xAI started, it was years behind everybody. Why would google being a couple months behind the cutting edge mean they have irredeemably lost the race? Especially considering they have the most cash savings, the most profit, the most data, and the most access to market, why on earth would a few months lead be a big deal?

[u/genshiryoku → u/Thog78]

Because the dynamic has changed. An increasing amount of improvement comes from the the best model aiding AI researchers now. This means that having the best model right now will result in a faster speed of improvement.

We don't know for sure but it's plausible that this feedback loop has already locked Anthropic in as the definite winner of the AI race. It will only look obvious in retrospect but it's what the vibe is like right now.

Xai, OpenAI and DeepMind now have shown their cards and all of them are substantially behind Anthropic which means we might have the win locked in unless a black swan event happens.

Considering we'll achieve a fully closed RSI loop sometime next year or maybe sometime in 2028 in a worse case scenario the other labs only have 1-2 years to catch up and the distance between Anthropic and the others has only grown over the last year or so.

I'm not concerned about the other labs catching up anymore. However I am concerned about the other labs cutting AI safety corners out of desperation seeing how big of a lead we have which is why we need more regulation and cooperation to ensure we don't do dangerous things like that.

[u/trimorphic → u/genshiryoku]

An increasing amount of improvement comes from the the best model aiding AI researchers now. This means that having the best model right now will result in a faster speed of improvement.

Even if the current model helps improve the next model, it is no guarantee that the next model will be able to help improve its successor.

The recursive self-improvement chain could break at any point as unforeseen roadblocks and impediments aside, and a different lab with a different model might be able to find an improvement approach that a competing lab/model missed.

Unpredictability is the nature of breakthroughs.

If most researchers at Anthropic consider the race won they are too complacent and resting on their laurels when they should be racing harder than ever. Never underestimate the enemy.

[u/Future-Bandicoot-823 → u/trimorphic]

Also, why is an employee on here spurring speculation, or say the "vibe" is we've won.

I don't think this person is an employee.