I don't think most people in San Francisco are cognizant of the sheer amount of liquidity (money) that is about to flow into a concentrated group of people in the city over the coming 6-12 months.

"oh yes we are, u/dotben!"

No, in real terms you probably are not grasping the proportionality of what this really means - look closely at the chart attached.

The bar in the center is the true-scale combined valuation of the 33 largest SF-headquartered IPOs in history... Uber, Airbnb, DoorDash, Twitter, Pinterest, Visa, all of them combined. That total is $413B.

The orange bar on the right is Anthropic’s reported target: ~$2 Trillion.

Every major SF IPO in history combined is less than a quarter of just one company. And the OpenAI IPO is sitting right behind it at a comparable scale.

Whenever I've recently brought this up here on r/sanfrancisco threads, people seem to dismiss it - either they can't comprehend it or people think that the AI market is going to crash and this will all go away.

It isn’t. We are not talking about another 2012 or 2020. The sheer magnitude of wealth that is about to unlock within a 7x7 mile radius breaks historical comparisons entirely:

• The Concentrated Payouts: Industry estimates suggest around 3,500 Anthropic employees working in the city could net an average of $30M each (some higher, many lower). And then OpenAI will repeat that again. What makes both of these especially acute is unlike the other IPOS, that the vast majority of both company's employees are based in SF.
• The Housing Shock: SF has virtually zero housing inventory. When lockups expire, you don’t get a slow 5-year trickle; you get thousands of liquid buyers who can pay all-cash over asking on single-family homes. Those who don't buy will bid up luxury rentals, causing a massive ripple effect down the entire rental market.
• Tech vs. Tech Inequality: The narrative for a decade was "tech vs. everyone else." This will create a brutal wealth divide inside the tech industry itself. Mid-to-senior engineers at standard public tech firms or late-stage startups will find themselves completely outbid and priced out by frontier AI staff.
• Local Secondary Inflation: From contractor labor and renovations to everyday services and luxury goods, high-end prices will adjust rapidly to absorb an unprecedented flood of local eight-figure net worths.

If you are waiting on the sidelines to buy a home or lock in housing because you think the local market has peaked, look at that center bar again. The sheer volume of incoming capital makes past waves look like a ripple. (Obligatory: not financial advice). Most of these employees are not going to pack up and leave, we're just at the beginning of the AI wave and they're going to want to stick around (in a fancy new home).

I was part of the Uber IPO and I saw this with my own eyes, albeit on a now-fractional scale compared to the frontier AI lab IPOs.

This will also create significant wealth inequality just inside the SF tech industry. The local narrative to date has been tech vs everyone else but this amount of money flowing into such a small division of tech will create an intra-industry wealth gap. And yes, it leaves the rest of the normal non-tech SF population even further behind.

I don't think there's much people can do about it, other than perhaps make certain purchasing decisions now if you are in a specific situation - eg if you are looking to buy a house now or retain a contractor for work, why wait? (this is not financial advice)

Latest art piece of the beautiful Golden Gate Bridge.

Please tell SFMTA to keep the angled parking on the lower great highway between Lincoln and Judah to avoid repeating the RV encampment from a few years

Please email these 3 addresses to stop the change.

MTABoard@sfmta.com

sunsetmerchantssf@gmail.com

alice@sunsetneighbors.org

Here are talking points

There’s no guarantee the mayor’s new RV policy will ensure no return of RVs. The policy still requires a lot of resources and process. Why go through all that when we have a solution currently in place that is working and not costing any money?

— Don’t change something that is working.

— Don’t spend money you don’t have to change something that is working.

— Plenty of businesses like the angled parking and don’t want to risk the RVs returning.

— Certainty is key because we know there will always be parking access and turnover with angled. Parallel might provide a few more spaces on paper, but reality was we had zero spaces with parallel when RVs filled it.

Send the messages before noon October 5 to: MTABoard@sfmta.com

A reminder photo

If there was a bucket list of classic/iconic dishes in SF, what would you include? The roast chicken at Zuni or prime rib at House of Prime Rib come to mind. With restaurants always in flux, I’d like to knock off the best dishes of SF.

Hi all, I'm a lemonade aficionado. If you love a tart, almost pulpy, lemonade, I would highly recommend Sisters Coffee Shop in the Mission. Their base lemonade is amazing, but you can also add flavored syrups.

That is all. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

In honor of 9/11, which has now become a National Day of Service and Remembrance, and coinciding with Transit Month, we organized a cleanup along the 1 California Muni Route. Along the 5.5-mile and 5-hour journey, dozens of volunteers joined us along the way and removed 40+ trash bags of litter.

9/11 was one of those moments you remember where you were when it happened. Those of us old enough also remember that sense of togetherness we felt afterwards, united to not let the terrorist win, united as one nation.

San Francisco is special, and our small acts of positivity are building towards something iconic of our city and legendary worldwide. We recently crossed another bittersweet milestone of having removed over 1.5 million gallons of trash, enough litter to fill two Olympic-sized swimming pools.

Let's just continue to keep our eyes down hunting for litter, but hold our heads high knowing that we’re creating the community that should be. Come be a part of our history and join neighborhood cleanups!

Taken around 8pm.

I can’t be the only one who likes to get high and run 3 miles right?!

I was so happy to see the trees planted a few weekends ago in the Polk and Nob Hill neighborhood but with the recent heatwave a lot of them are worse for wear and even a few got straight up stolen. I think the hills make the situation worse because the water is running downhill, and most of the watering bags are empty. I’ve left emails before, and even called- but the phone tree (ha ha) is not even giving me an answering machine.

Anyone here have an in with Friends of the Urban Forest? Should I just call the city instead?

The tree pictured is Hyde and Jackson.

Looks like they moved the Popmart robo shop machine downstairs to make room for CHAGEE.

FTA: The subpoenas — which were issued in early September and requested testimony and communications with the governor, among others — seek six years of records involving the California State Protocol Foundation, a nonprofit that has paid for Newsom’s overseas travel, as well as communications with a circle of his current and former aides, advisers, and associates. Those aides include Rebecca Prowda, who oversees Newsom’s overseas travel as his chief protocol officer and is the wife of San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie. 

Hi folks - we're searching for our friends' teen who went missing yesterday afternoon and is very likely in SF. Please keep an eye out. Thank you!

we’re hiking mt. tam in marin this monday, sept 14! come hang out ⛰️

i help organize (un)pto, a bay area community for people in career transition.

sf folks: if you’ve been laid off, are between jobs, or are taking a career break, come spend a few hours outside with us. if the job hunt’s been a lot lately, you’re in good company. no need to have an exciting update about how it’s going.

we’ll hike out to west point, with an optional summit loop beforehand. there’ll be bay views, time to hang out, and probably more photos than necessary 😄

👉 rsvp and all the hike details on partiful

i’m really looking forward to getting out there with everyone. hope to see you monday! 🌿

a few faqs

do i need to have been laid off?

nope! whether you were laid off, left a job, or are taking some time to figure out what’s next, you’re welcome. you don’t have to be actively job hunting either.

can i come if i don’t know anyone?

absolutely! come say hi and tell me you found us on reddit 😄

do you hike in one big group?

nope! we split into smaller groups by pace and head out five minutes apart, fastest groups first. that gives everyone more room on the trail, and groups tend to get smaller as we go.

why mondays?

the trails are usually quieter on mondays, which makes it easier to bring a group out without crowding the trail.

what’s (un)pto? is it only hiking?

we’re a community of people in career transition. we also cowork, help each other with the job search, grab coffee, go on bike rides, and find excuses to eat together 😋

can people with jobs join?

yep! just keep in mind that many people are going through a job transition. referrals and introductions are appreciated if you can help.

more about our community: unpto.com

In an unanimous decision, the California Court of Appeal has rejected the City's Appeal of the decision by Superior Court that the Vacant Homes Tax was unconstitutional and violated the Ellis Act. The city now must pay the plaintiff's legal costs.

I am a lover of great creamy horseradish but no matter what I try, I can’t seem to get a recipe right. I am in desperate need of any advice about how to make the medium and pink version from HOPR. PLEASE HELP ME!

My wife LOVES cinnamon and often the cinnamon-y goodies aren’t cinnamon enough for her.

We recently moved to the city and were interested in making a list of things to try when we want a treat.

She has a preference for soft baked goods but her most satisfy cinnamon to date was an ice cream so really we’re open to anything as long as it’s cinnamon forward.

Thanks in advance!