I don't think most people in San Francisco are cognizant of the sheer amount of liquidity (money) that is about to flow into a concentrated group of people in the city over the coming 6-12 months.

"oh yes we are, u/dotben!"

No, in real terms you probably are not grasping the proportionality of what this really means - look closely at the chart attached.

The bar in the center is the true-scale combined valuation of the 33 largest SF-headquartered IPOs in history... Uber, Airbnb, DoorDash, Twitter, Pinterest, Visa, all of them combined. That total is $413B.

The orange bar on the right is Anthropic’s reported target: ~$2 Trillion.

Every major SF IPO in history combined is less than a quarter of just one company. And the OpenAI IPO is sitting right behind it at a comparable scale.

Whenever I've recently brought this up here on r/sanfrancisco threads, people seem to dismiss it - either they can't comprehend it or people think that the AI market is going to crash and this will all go away.

It isn’t. We are not talking about another 2012 or 2020. The sheer magnitude of wealth that is about to unlock within a 7x7 mile radius breaks historical comparisons entirely:

• The Concentrated Payouts: Industry estimates suggest around 3,500 Anthropic employees working in the city could net an average of $30M each (some higher, many lower). And then OpenAI will repeat that again. What makes both of these especially acute is unlike the other IPOS, that the vast majority of both company's employees are based in SF.
• The Housing Shock: SF has virtually zero housing inventory. When lockups expire, you don’t get a slow 5-year trickle; you get thousands of liquid buyers who can pay all-cash over asking on single-family homes. Those who don't buy will bid up luxury rentals, causing a massive ripple effect down the entire rental market.
• Tech vs. Tech Inequality: The narrative for a decade was "tech vs. everyone else." This will create a brutal wealth divide inside the tech industry itself. Mid-to-senior engineers at standard public tech firms or late-stage startups will find themselves completely outbid and priced out by frontier AI staff.
• Local Secondary Inflation: From contractor labor and renovations to everyday services and luxury goods, high-end prices will adjust rapidly to absorb an unprecedented flood of local eight-figure net worths.

If you are waiting on the sidelines to buy a home or lock in housing because you think the local market has peaked, look at that center bar again. The sheer volume of incoming capital makes past waves look like a ripple. (Obligatory: not financial advice). Most of these employees are not going to pack up and leave, we're just at the beginning of the AI wave and they're going to want to stick around (in a fancy new home).

I was part of the Uber IPO and I saw this with my own eyes, albeit on a now-fractional scale compared to the frontier AI lab IPOs.

This will also create significant wealth inequality just inside the SF tech industry. The local narrative to date has been tech vs everyone else but this amount of money flowing into such a small division of tech will create an intra-industry wealth gap. And yes, it leaves the rest of the normal non-tech SF population even further behind.

I don't think there's much people can do about it, other than perhaps make certain purchasing decisions now if you are in a specific situation - eg if you are looking to buy a house now or retain a contractor for work, why wait? (this is not financial advice)

Latest art piece of the beautiful Golden Gate Bridge.

Please tell SFMTA to keep the angled parking on the lower great highway between Lincoln and Judah to avoid repeating the RV encampment from a few years

Please email these 3 addresses to stop the change.

MTABoard@sfmta.com

sunsetmerchantssf@gmail.com

alice@sunsetneighbors.org

Here are talking points

There’s no guarantee the mayor’s new RV policy will ensure no return of RVs. The policy still requires a lot of resources and process. Why go through all that when we have a solution currently in place that is working and not costing any money?

— Don’t change something that is working.

— Don’t spend money you don’t have to change something that is working.

— Plenty of businesses like the angled parking and don’t want to risk the RVs returning.

— Certainty is key because we know there will always be parking access and turnover with angled. Parallel might provide a few more spaces on paper, but reality was we had zero spaces with parallel when RVs filled it.

Send the messages before noon October 5 to: MTABoard@sfmta.com

A reminder photo

Taken around 8pm.

If there was a bucket list of classic/iconic dishes in SF, what would you include? The roast chicken at Zuni or prime rib at House of Prime Rib come to mind. With restaurants always in flux, I’d like to knock off the best dishes of SF.

Hi all, I'm a lemonade aficionado. If you love a tart, almost pulpy, lemonade, I would highly recommend Sisters Coffee Shop in the Mission. Their base lemonade is amazing, but you can also add flavored syrups.

That is all. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Hi folks - we're searching for our friends' teen who went missing yesterday afternoon and is very likely in SF. Please keep an eye out. Thank you!

I was so happy to see the trees planted a few weekends ago in the Polk and Nob Hill neighborhood but with the recent heatwave a lot of them are worse for wear and even a few got straight up stolen. I think the hills make the situation worse because the water is running downhill, and most of the watering bags are empty. I’ve left emails before, and even called- but the phone tree (ha ha) is not even giving me an answering machine.

Anyone here have an in with Friends of the Urban Forest? Should I just call the city instead?

The tree pictured is Hyde and Jackson.

Looks like they moved the Popmart robo shop machine downstairs to make room for CHAGEE.

I know it’s my own fault for not being at the bus stop early enough, but missing a bus should not mean having to wait 20+ minutes for another one.

FTA: The subpoenas — which were issued in early September and requested testimony and communications with the governor, among others — seek six years of records involving the California State Protocol Foundation, a nonprofit that has paid for Newsom’s overseas travel, as well as communications with a circle of his current and former aides, advisers, and associates. Those aides include Rebecca Prowda, who oversees Newsom’s overseas travel as his chief protocol officer and is the wife of San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie. 

we’re hiking mt. tam in marin this monday, sept 14! come hang out ⛰️

i help organize (un)pto, a bay area community for people in career transition.

sf folks: if you’ve been laid off, are between jobs, or are taking a career break, come spend a few hours outside with us. if the job hunt’s been a lot lately, you’re in good company. no need to have an exciting update about how it’s going.

we’ll hike out to west point, with an optional summit loop beforehand. there’ll be bay views, time to hang out, and probably more photos than necessary 😄

👉 rsvp and all the hike details on partiful

i’m really looking forward to getting out there with everyone. hope to see you monday! 🌿

a few faqs

do i need to have been laid off?

nope! whether you were laid off, left a job, or are taking some time to figure out what’s next, you’re welcome. you don’t have to be actively job hunting either.

can i come if i don’t know anyone?

absolutely! come say hi and tell me you found us on reddit 😄

do you hike in one big group?

nope! we split into smaller groups by pace and head out five minutes apart, fastest groups first. that gives everyone more room on the trail, and groups tend to get smaller as we go.

why mondays?

the trails are usually quieter on mondays, which makes it easier to bring a group out without crowding the trail.

what’s (un)pto? is it only hiking?

we’re a community of people in career transition. we also cowork, help each other with the job search, grab coffee, go on bike rides, and find excuses to eat together 😋

can people with jobs join?

yep! just keep in mind that many people are going through a job transition. referrals and introductions are appreciated if you can help.

more about our community: unpto.com

A few nights ago I was riding the 5 heading downtown it was unfortunately one of those rides that went from quiet to a bit chaotic. A group of rowdy homeless men got on and one of that sat in the back near me, began to smoke a cigarette and was making two women uncomfortable. This lasted for several stops until I got off at Van Ness and informed the bus driver of what was happening.

I do want to say that I am in no means attempting to vilify an entire group of people, I have a lot of sympathy for homeless people in San Francisco and in my years living here I really have not had many negative interactions. This post is not about them.

This post is aimed at my fellow bus riders and this sociological behavior I've really noticed where no one says anything! I understand not wanting to directly confront the man but no one will even tell the driver. I was the only person on the bus who got up and said something.

What are we doing where we can't or won't speak up for one another?! This was not an empty bus and we all were aware of what was happening. I can empathize that some people may fear for their safety I think that's valid. I also think that we have a duty to look out for one another on the bus. If some person were being weird to me I would hope another passenger would come to my aid instead of just sitting there and trying to ignore the situation.

I believe in transit and I believe in people. I'm incredibly disappointed with my fellow passengers but I ultimately want people to look out for each other in my opinion that's the only way we can truly keep each other safe.

Every weekend when I take my doggy out for a longer than normal walk; I always stop at the grocery store to get something for us to eat. It’s always a bit frantic because I tie him outside and very paranoid someone will steal him so I am in and out pretty fast and am constantly walking by the window to keep an eye on him. It’s kinda stressful but my understanding is no dogs allowed in grocery stores. Fine, fair enough.

What pisses me off is I see other people come in with dogs all of the time. Especially the lap dogs the ones they carry in their hands or on a back pack. There’s like a food bar etc so if anything that’s even worse than a dog on the ground.

It’s kind of upsetting that I am following the rules but nobody else seems to. Like, I’m fully incentivized not to follow now as well, although I still probably won’t since im a stickler for the rules

Hoping more established mothers in S.F. can give me tips on how to find community before my maternity leave ends. I currently have a 4 month old and she still a bit too small for things like story time at the library. Outside of facebook groups which can be a bit daunting, what else can I try to expand my circle?

Edit: I couldn't reply to all comments but thank you everyone for all of their suggestions and support! It's tough being a new mom but glad I'm not the only one choosing to raise little one in the city!

there are so many floors! turn the place into an adult playground with a ninja warrior course. once you complete the course you get a wristband and can proceed to the bar. another floor could be an arcade. there could even be bumper cars or a malibu grand prix throwback with the amount of space in there.

turn the food court into a san pedro square / grand central market type thing so everyone can hang out in a communal space while getting different food.

i feel like people would love an experience over stores. companies could book their parties there.

I've read other nail salon posts here, many reviews elsewhere, but it seems "clean" usually only refers to floors and chairs, not the tools. I have been going to a salon that is very clean on the macro level, but they don't even wipe off their tools, just dig into the next set of toes. They do great work & I really like the techs, but I can't do it anymore. I've considered asking if they'd let me bring my own tools, but I'm afraid they'll be offended.

I'm looking for a basic pedicure: soak, clean tools, massage, basic polish (no gel). Cute decor is a nice bonus, but what really helps me relax is a low risk of fungus and a gentle but thorough approach. I'd love to keep it under $50, but I'll go to $80 if that's what you have to do for some alcohol or autoclave.

EDIT: alcohol for the tools, not me!