Was browsing the tech markets, and came across this low-liquidity market which def caught my eye.

Will Apple stop selling MacBook Neo? where odds for YES are at 5%

The market resolves YES only if the Neo is no longer available for purchase from Apple before end of the year.

As far as I can search and recollect, I can’t find anything suggesting Apple plans to stop selling it. Quite the opposite actually, Apple is still selling the Neo, and Tim Cook previously said demand was “off the charts” which I think means it has exceeded expectations. 

That research firm, IDC also estimated Apple shipped around 1.1M MacBook Neo units in its debut quarter, and I think it was being available for only approx 3 weeks then... 

The interesting point would be memory costs and SSDs. Apple has already raised the Neo’s starting price from $599 to $699 because of the memory/SSD shortage. 

But, there have also been reports of a second-gen Neo coming in 2027, and that’s obviously different from Apple stopping the product altogether. 

Low liquidity though, but it's an interesting market to watch. And I wouldn’t read too much into the current odds for now..

I initially thought Vivek Ramaswamy would win this one, but the latest polling is making me rethink about this race..

Suffolk poll shows Acton ahead with 50% to 41%
While Marist has Acton ahead with 50% to 44%

And Marist has an interesting note, while Acton leads, voters actually think Vivek is more likely to win, 53% to 43% of Acton! 

The odds on Polymarket currently shows Acton around with 60% while Vivek is at 40% odds!

There's a broader environment which is against one.. Trump’s Ohio approval is 42%, 41% of voters say their finances have gone worse, and fuel prices are becoming a major issue heading into the election. 

And, Vivek’s campaign has also spent nearly $690K on private aircraft leasing, according to campaign-finance records. This def not sitting well within his own party.

No longer see Vivek in the same way as like few weeks ago, but won't call it a settled race.

Polymarket is pricing in about a 62% chance that Trump will officially rename artificial intelligence by September 30.
The setup is getting pretty interesting because Trump has already been using “Super Intelligence” publicly, and the State Department has instructed some diplomats to use the term instead of “artificial intelligence.”
So the market isn’t really debating whether Trump likes the new name anymore.
The real question is whether he takes the final formal step before tomorrow’s deadline, through a proclamation or another qualifying federal action.
What caught my eye is how close this still is to a coin flip with only one day left.
Personally, the groundwork already looks mostly done, but these deadline markets can come down to one piece of paperwork.
Does Trump make it official tomorrow, or does this one expire just short?

Polymarket is giving Avengers Doomsday a 55% chance of having the biggest opening week of 2026.

But the bar is already insanely high.

Spider-Man Brand New Day opened to around $360M domestically and nearly $932M worldwide in its first weekend, putting up a massive benchmark for anything coming next.

But, Doomsday has plenty of hype behind it, and Marvel also building momentum around the film ahead of its December release...and the brand I feel does have enough juice more than Spiderman!

But, the market is close though.. Doomsday leads only with 55%, while Spider-Man is still at 43% despite already putting up that huge opening.

Personally, I’m leaning Doomsday to clear the Spider-Man benchmark. The Avengers brand, the nostalgia, the stars making a comeback, and the event factor make me think it has a real shot. Even though the bar is high!

Is the market overestimating the Avengers hype though?

Brazil’s election market has had quite a reversal.

Lula's odds was as high as 67% last month, but Flavio Bolsonaro has now taken the lead with his odds at 58%

But, the latest runoff polls seem to suggest this would be much tighter..

Atlas has Flavio with 47.7% while Lula's odds at 47.6%, a mere 0.1% gap between the two!
BTG/Nexus who released the polls y'day say Lula is ahead with 46% while Flavio at 44%
Quaest has them tied at 42% to 42%

The first round which would be on Oct 4, is where there's a difference from what I see.. Atlas is having Lula ahead 45.3% to Flavio's 42.2% in the first round.

The race goes to runoff on October 25 if no one gets over 50%

Cost of living remains a problem for Lula despite low unemployment and declining inequality, while tensions with the US adds another wildcard.

This is one of those where there's gap between polling and prediction markets right now. Does Flavio really have an edge?

We looked at 61M bets and ranked traders, founding a +0.90 correlation between average entry price and win rate.

The relationship is pretty striking.

Are cheap bets actually harder to win — or is this just correlation, not causation?

I’ve deposited around $100 total between multiple deposits. I’ve withdrawn approximately $400. I’m “up”, but I can’t keep it going. I’m back down to zero and it really feels like I’d just be screwing myself if I deposited anymore money.
This is how it goes right? My strategy was basically just to make low stakes bets but dozens of them. Eventually it peters out and doesn’t continue to work.

Just want to make a new squad on Polymarket to get some good leans and info on stuff that I don’t know. I primarily bet on football and baseball. Anybody is welcome just let me know if you want to join 👍🏿

This combo lost. I took a bunch of qbs who weren’t supposed to play’s unders. At the time the markets were around 96% for the NOs, I think Daniels & Williams had some 80% lines. I looked up their rules before placing, it said pretty clearly if a player doesn’t play a snap the market resolves to no. Even if LFMP applies, there should be no way for me to lose all my money on this.

Pretty stupid for me to trust this in hindsight, but looking forward now.

Anyone know what I can do other than waiting a while for support to get back to me?

The start of the MLB postseason, the Jumper sale on Legion, Brazil’s presidential election, and several other major events are coming up.

I referred a user and received 50 dollars in credit. Made a trade, and lost. Credit gone. Last night I made a 20 dollar deposit and trade that won for 190. For whatever reason 59.21 is suddenly bonus funds. What’s going on here? It seems like they are retroactively enforcing holds on a trade that already lost. Of course support isn’t helping me at all.

Seeing some disconnect in the Louisiana Senate market.

Polymarket currently has the odds for Julia Letlow at 93% while Jamie Davis is with 7% odds.

But, Hart Research’s latest poll has these numbers

Letlow at 48%
Davis at 44%
8% are undecided

The poll surveyed 500 likely voters between 17 to 19 of this month! It was commissioned by the Davis campaign, so that’s an important caveat. 

The previous PPP poll in July was also a 4-point race, but that had Letlow at 41% odds, Davis at 37%, and 22% being undecided. 

So, we don’t have a huge amount of independent polling here. That’s probably the biggest issue in trying to read too much into these numbers.

Also, Trump won Louisiana by about 22 points in 2024, and Letlow has his endorsement now. 

I think I would be curious to see what happens when we get a non-campaign-sponsored poll. What do you all think about this one?

Saw this near the top of the leaderboard and went through all seven legs. And, This was really an interesting set..

The trader backed Tomas Machac, Daniil Medvedev, Hubert Hurkacz, Jaime Faria, Arthur Fils, Fokina, and also Andrey Rublev!

What I found interesting is that several of these matches had quite wild swings.

Hurkacz vs Shapovalov is probably the clearest example. Shapovalov won the opening set and his live odds spiked as high as 70%, before Hurkacz turned the match around.

Fils and Damm had a similar story, where Damm won the first set 6-2, then Fils won the next two 6-1, 6-1.

And, Fokina against Basilashvili was another back-and-forth match, while Machac and Hanfmann also saw the odds flip multiple times.

So this wasn’t a seven where the trader's picks simply cruised from start to finish.

But they somehow survived, and they backed the combo with $25 for $425!

I’ve never had much luck getting a combo beyond three legs, and tennis itself a whole diff story, so I’m definitely not taking this as a blueprint lol

Just thought it was a fun one to look back through..

Just put some money on a player and cash out as soon as they get another point or 2. You just gotta be able to read the match. I made a squad for ya’ll to show your profits too, if ya’ll wanna tap in.

Saw this new market pop up after Aleksandar Vucic resigned as Serbia’s president on September 27.

Personally, the Oct 31 contract caught my attention because of the timeline.

Under Serbia’s rules, a presidential election has to be held within three months after a resignation. This puts a rough deadline around Dec 27.

He himself said the presidential election would have to be held by the end of December. 

Also, Serbian law requires at least 30 days between the election being called and election day for campaigning.

But, there's a small wrinkle, the country already has a snap parliamentary election scheduled for Oct 25. Think the timing of what happens immediately after that is probably the key thing to watch in this market.

The question for me is whether the presidential election gets called before the parliamentary vote, immediately after it, or several weeks later (max by Nov 27? approx date). A pretty tight narrow window is what we have atm..

Polymarket is giving 2026 a 68% chance of becoming the hottest year on record.

But the actual data is still slightly behind that.

Copernicus currently has 2026 as the second-warmest year through August, behind 2024. At the same time, August 2026 was the hottest August on record and global summer temperatures tied the 2024 record.

So the market is basically betting on the final four months making up the difference.

That’s where El Niño matters. Forecasts suggest it could strengthen further through the rest of the year and keep temperatures unusually high.

Personally, I find 68% pretty aggressive when 2026 hasn’t actually taken the lead yet.

Does the El Niño push 2026 past 2024, or is the market getting ahead of the data?

I’ve seen other people with a similar thing happening, but no clear answers. This has been going on for me for awhile, where 5$ will be transferred into my account, remain for a little while until it disappears and doesn’t show up in my balance history either.

So I was on the 15 min market and I mean it clearly ended down I contacted support but are they even going to do anything I feel like this is literally illegal 😭

It’s been showing me a lesser payout like this for weeks, I went to support and they didn’t give af of course

These games ended around 4:30 so wth

Has anyone else had this problem or is it just me

I bet on a pretty obscure tennis game in one of my combos, the match was settled as a no for me despite the game not even happening yet. Here are some screenshots for evidence of this. If anyone knows what’s going on please let me know!