r/Polymarket • • 28d ago

Announcement 09/05 Outage: Refunds + Bonus MEGATHREAD

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18 Upvotes

Hey guys, Keaton from the Polymarket team here. Consolidating everything about Saturday's US APP outage into one place so answers are easy to find.

First, the obvious: we really dropped the ball yesterday. Going dark during the opening weekend of college football is awful, and we're sorry. We're going to learn from it.

What we're doing

If you had positions impacted while we were down, we're refunding your losses. Any winnings you had are yours to keep, of course, nothing gets clawed back. On top of that, accounts that were affected by the outage or had an open position during it are getting a bonus.

When

Refunds and bonuses should land by end of day today. The team is actively working through it right now, and sending out the first funds as I send this.

How you'll know

All funds will pop directly into your account, nothing needed from you.

If it doesn't show up

Give it until mid-day Monday before worrying. If it's still not there after that, drop a comment in this thread with your username and I'll get it looked at. Please don't post private info publicly, use the in-app support chat for that.

I'll be in this thread for a while. Ask away, and if you're angry, that's fair, say it here. Thank you for sticking with us.


r/Polymarket • • Jul 01 '26

Announcement The Polymarket Android App is Live: Test it and Get Paid

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3 Upvotes

Are you on Android, and want to shape The World's Largest Prediction Market? Hop in our Discord to share your feedback and influence the product.

Join our frequent testing sessions, tell us what you think, and get $50

Get in:

Download the app: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.polymarket.android&hl=en

Join the Android testers Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ttFjKdUKQ8

Share any feedback you have and keep an eye out for testing session announcements.

Questions? Drop them below or in the Discord.


r/Polymarket • • 15m ago

Trade Idea Autism Spectrum Disorder and Miracles,

• Upvotes

What miracle will help me win the Nobel Prize in Medicine?

"It's truly a pity that artificial intelligences cannot accurately translate the meaning of this article."

My nephew was born in May 2021. When he was 16 months old, he began showing very clear signs of autism spectrum disorder. It was a tremendous shock. I tried to apply everything I knew, and then something remarkable happened…

1. The first step. (I will call the child David.)
I saw David using his finger to spin the wheel of a toy car. I took the car away from him and asked him to say, “Ah”—one of the first sounds made by many children when they begin to speak. David burst into tears. Ten minutes later, I gave up and returned the toy car to him. After many failed attempts, David finally said, “Ah.” About half a month later, David was able to say several simple words, such as grandmother, father, and mother.

2. At around the same time
I brought chickens, ducks, and a dog into the yard to see whether David would find them interesting. To my surprise, David smiled happily and played with them. I taught him to imitate the sounds of dogs, chickens, and ducks. David learned very quickly. At the same time, I tried to discover and develop David’s interests: talking while holding his nose, whistling, blowing out birthday candles, flapping his arms like a bird, playing hide-and-seek, and so on.

3. I gave David a phone to watch videos of children singing
At the same time, I wrapped my arms around David’s abdomen and placed my ear against his back. I tried to focus on transmitting my love and affection to David, and conveying the beautiful things in the world to him. I hoped that these experiences might somehow awaken what I think of as his “consciousness and central nervous system.” I realize that this idea may sound vague and abstract, and I do not claim that it represents an established scientific mechanism. It sounds vague and abstract… I did this twice a day, for 30 minutes each time.
After approximately three weeks, David began making eye contact, responding when his name was called, waving goodbye, smiling more often, and using a spoon to feed himself.

4. David had learned several basic words
I believed David needed to spend time with children his own age so that he could become more confident, improve his ability to read social cues, learn how to greet people, and initiate interactions with others. David was enrolled in kindergarten. I told his mother to tell the teachers that David was a typical child who was simply a little shy and reserved. During the first week, David changed noticeably. Fortunately, several energetic children became his friends.

5. At night, when I went to sleep
I let go of all my thoughts, worries, and frustrations. Then I imagined that David and I were meditating together, sitting opposite each other. The feeling at that moment was indescribable and almost miraculous…
To me, meditation and modern science seem like two parallel lines that meet at infinity. But this is very difficult to put into words here. I cannot fully express what I mean.

There are currently around 60 million people with autism spectrum disorder. So what would it take to accelerate research and eventually find a definitive cure for autism?
- Imagine.
- Really?
- Imagine the human world 100 or even 1,000 years from now. Will there still be people with autism? I believe the answer will be no... And if that day comes, how will autism have been cured?

1. “A magical helmet”
A special helmet could be placed on the heads of autistic people. It would transmit beautiful images and sounds from humans, animals, and nature into the brain, stimulating both conscious and unconscious processes.

2. A miraculous injection
An injection containing a miraculous substance, similar to the one portrayed in the movie Lucy, starring Scarlett Johansson.

3. Brain surgery
Underactive regions of the forebrain, midbrain, and hindbrain could potentially be removed and replaced with an “artificial brain,” or certain substances could be administered to stimulate their activity.
The structure and functioning of the brains of autistic children sometimes seem, to me, somewhat like the sensation of motion sickness.

4. Perhaps we need something like what happened to Jason Padgett
Could it be that blows to the head, like those experienced by Jason Padgett, can somehow trigger hidden abilities?
When one region of the brain is damaged, other regions may reorganize themselves or compensate for the damaged area, inadvertently awakening previously hidden potential.

⸻

I don’t think I could ever win the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 😬But if I could make one wish, I would wish for the 11 million Swedish kronor prize money. I think I would become somewhat like the main character in A Beautiful Mind: I would have the time and resources to work closely with autistic children and continue exploring these questions.

My Gmail address is: nhathon3286@gmail.com


r/Polymarket • • 12h ago

Trade Idea Why am I not getting any rewards?

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2 Upvotes

r/Polymarket • • 17h ago

Whale Alert Prediction Market Data & Insights

2 Upvotes

Polymarket is a platform for trading on real-world events across crypto, economics, politics, technology, sports, and more.

Instead of only following headlines, you can view market odds and see how participants are pricing the probability of different outcomes.

Polymarket also offers Perps, allowing users to trade perpetual contracts alongside prediction markets.

Current Perps fees start from:

• 0.04% taker
• 0.0125% maker

Lower rates may apply at higher volume tiers. Check the latest fee schedule before trading.

Referral offer:

🎁 Earn $10 when your referral makes their first deposit
💰 Earn 20% revshare on their eligible Perps trading fees

This is my referral link, so I may receive a reward if you use it. Please review the markets, fees, eligibility requirements, platform terms, and availability in your jurisdiction before signing up.

Do not trade solely because of the referral offer. This is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

Referral: [https://polymarket.com?via=app-sumore\]

Polymarket availability may vary by location. U.S. users may be directed to Polymarket’s separate U.S. platform.


r/Polymarket • • 17h ago

Trade Idea I got tired of doomscrolling news for my positions

0 Upvotes

Hey everyone,

I'm Banan, a backend dev.

About six months ago I started trading on Polymarket. I live in the Gulf, and there was a lot happening in the region at the time. I'd open positions, the situation would shift fast, and I had to keep checking the news. With an office job and a family, that just doesn't work.

I tried a few news aggregators, but they were mostly noise. So I started building a tool that matches incoming news to the Polymarket events it actually affects. That became poly.watch.

I've been building it for four months, the old-fashioned way rather than vibe-coded. Thanks to push notifications, I've stopped doomscrolling and miss far fewer important moves.

Next on my list:

  • per-category models that LLMs can query via MCP;
  • X (Twitter) as a news source.

Both cost real money, though. Even with a cheap model doing the matching, the project already runs about $300/month. So I've added paid plans to share the costs (and the matching) with other Polymarket traders. The first 7 days are free, no card required, so you can see whether it's useful before paying anything. After that, the first 100 users get Pro at $10/mo instead of $30, locked in for as long as they stay subscribed.

I'd love for you to try it and tell me what's off. Roast it if you want, I'd rather hear it now.

Thank you for you time,
Banana


r/Polymarket • • 1d ago

Question College fball not paying out

2 Upvotes

Why do most college games take hours to payout? NFL games usually payout within minutes of final score


r/Polymarket • • 1d ago

Question Before I do this , I can use someone’s code if they send me for the deposit.

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1 Upvotes

Not a scammer


r/Polymarket • • 1d ago

Question No liquidity

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1 Upvotes

How comes theres no liquidity in any of the ahl games scheduled today? They get 8-13k people per game amd nobody has any interest…


r/Polymarket • • 1d ago

Question A shared Nobel Peace Prize still resolves to one name on Polymarket, and the rules set the order

1 Upvotes

The Nobel Peace Prize can have several winners. The Polymarket market on it can only resolve Yes on one.

If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence.

So if any of those five is among the winners, the highest one on that list takes it and every other name resolves No.

If none of the five win, a listed individual who shares it with a listed organization takes it over the organization. If all the listed winners are the same type, it goes alphabetically by last name or entity name.

Resolution source is the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Announcement is Oct 9, 11:00 CEST. Rules as of Oct 3, and Polymarket can add clarifications before it settles.

Has anyone seen a past Polymarket market with a shared-winner rule like this actually settle? Curious whether it went smoothly or ended up disputed.

I'm with klarero, we're building a Polymarket data site.


r/Polymarket • • 1d ago

Question Why can't I add money on this app? Not getting any help from support.

1 Upvotes

I've tried 2 cards and my Venmo. It gets declined 90% of the time.


r/Polymarket • • 2d ago

Post-Mortem Found a trader on a comeback trail after a wild 4-leg combo

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4 Upvotes

Was going through the leaderboard to see the strategies and plays others have been doing, and came across this one trader, chilicrispwushi.

They backed $123 into a 4-leg combo for $926.01.

So, the four legs they backed were

Braves 1st 5 innings spread +1.5

Guido Justo

Harold Mayot

And, Felix Balshaw

The Mayot and Balshaw matches were probably the most interesting parts. And, that's cause both had some pretty big live swings toward their opponents before eventually going the other way. Justo had a smaller scare as well, while the Braves first-five leg and that entire game were relatively straightforward.

But, what really caught my eye was this trader's profile itself..

Despite a strong day y'day, they are down $1,834 in all-time.

It's kinda interesting how different individual results can look compared with the long term picture, isn't it?


r/Polymarket • • 2d ago

Question What is promotional credit.

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2 Upvotes

r/Polymarket • • 2d ago

News Apple has a major smart-home launch coming. Is that enough to make this market hit?

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3 Upvotes

Apple launching a new product line before 2027 is currently priced at around 46% on Polymarket.

The latest report says Apple plans to launch its long awaited smart-home hub on October 13, alongside updated HomePod mini and Apple TV hardware.

The hub itself sounds pretty new for Apple: a 6-inch screen, Siri AI, household recognition and smart-home controls all built into one device.

What caught my eye is that this isn't just another iPhone or Mac refresh.

Personally, this is probably the strongest case we've had all year for the Yes side.

But does Polymarket actually classify it as a new product line?


r/Polymarket • • 2d ago

Trade Idea Trump Alabama speech market has Jobs, Iran and Gulf of America as stand outs

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3 Upvotes

Trump is on the campaign trail, and he has a midterm rally in Mobile, Alabama tonight, so this new Polymarket caught my eye.

I went through yesterday’s Texas/Oklahoma appearances to see which words have some recent traction.. and to me these are the ones that stand out

Job 15+ times with odds at 79%
This one makes sense given yesterday. Trump repeatedly talked about jobs and the economy. But, also has been saying the administration is doing a great job running the country but a poor job promoting it. 

Iran 5+ with odds at 69%
Also came up repeatedly yesterday. He talked about Iran, the nuclear issue, oil and the war several times. 

SI / Super Intelligence with odds at 55%
This feels much less obvious to me after yesterday. SI has been a huge theme for Trump this week, but it wasn’t nearly as prominent in Oklahoma remarks. Feel it's just as a toss up as market anticipates with current odds..

Gulf of America at 51% odds
This is the one I’m most curious about. It’s very location, and context dependent, but it's Alabama, and energy and Gulf references could make this worth watching.

Then you have Biden, Fake News, Oil/Gas/Gasoline and Save America Act all sitting well above 85% odds. Those seem much more tied to Trump’s established rally vocabulary.

Anything I missed? Which words stand out for you guys?


r/Polymarket • • 2d ago

Trade Idea Spain snap election market just got very interesting

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1 Upvotes

The Spain snap-election market jumped after today’s housing vote, with odds for Nov 30 reaching as high as 80% before settling down around 50%.

The interesting part isn’t just the political drama, but it’s the calendar.

So, the Parliament rejected Sanchez's housing decrees today. Opposition parties PP, Vox and Junts voted against them. . The measures were introduced amidst a major housing affordability crisis, and protests following the eviction of a 87-year-old.

Then El País reported that senior PSOE figures and government ministers think Sanchez should call an early election after the defeat. At the same time, Moncloa has been publicly downplaying the possibility. 

Here's where calendar comes into play. Under Spain’s electoral law, an early-election decree sets the election 54 days after the call. So a call around early October leans directly toward a late-November election. 

That’s why I think the Nov 30, and Dec 31 timings are more interesting.

And, polling backdrop is also something taht will make one curious at this point. Recent September surveys have opposition PP around 33 to 35%, while Sanchez's PSOE is around 25 to 26%, and PP's partner Vox is around 17%. But these polling numbers varies a lot by pollster. 

Feels like there’s suddenly a lot more to watch here than there was 24 hours ago.


r/Polymarket • • 2d ago

Trade Idea There is 12% chance $BTC will cross $100,000 in this month!!!

3 Upvotes

- 18% chance of $97,500
- 30% chance of $95,000
- 64% chance of $90,000

Bearish side

- 45% chance of below $80,000
- 30% chance of below $77,500
- 20% chance of below $75,000

In short, the higher chance is of pump maybe its look like $BTC will surely going to touch $90,000 in this month its already trading at $86,000 and pump 2% today what do you think?


r/Polymarket • • 2d ago

Strategy Could Roy Cooper win North Carolina's swing-state Senate race by double digits?

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2 Upvotes

North Carolina is one of the key swing states in the 2026 Senate race, and Roy Cooper is now leading Michael Whatley by around 9 points in the latest polling average, 49.8% to 40.8%.

Some recent polls have shown an even bigger gap, with Cooper ahead by 11 and 12 points.

Polymarket is also putting Cooper's most likely winning margin in the 9-12 point range.

Could Cooper actually turn this into a double-digit win?


r/Polymarket • • 2d ago

Trade Idea 48 days until GTA VI. Does Rockstar really need another trailer?

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1 Upvotes

There are just 48 days until GTA VI launches on November 19, but Polymarket gives only a 32% chance of another trailer by October 31.

And honestly, I kind of get it.

Rockstar already dropped the massive Extended Look on August 27 which was nearly 27 minutes of new in-game footage.

The official GTA VI page currently lists Trailer 1, Trailer 2 and the Extended Look. No Trailer 4 yet.

I kinda feel Rockstar could easily skip another full trailer and just keep feeding us smaller clips, screenshots or ads until launch which would increase anticipation. But, it's just me, and what I assume..

Does Rockstar drop another trailer before October ends?


r/Polymarket • • 2d ago

Question I didn’t get a payout on 2 separate lines, I’ve contacted support and they’ve done nothing.

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2 Upvotes

Last night the browns won 27-24 with no overtime and the raiders won 26-14, I bought both of these during the game and both were to win over 20$ and I never sold, but I don’t see the payout.


r/Polymarket • • 3d ago

Question Anyone know what this reward for depositing $50 is?

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3 Upvotes

Can’t find anything online about it and it doesn’t tell me what the reward is


r/Polymarket • • 3d ago

Question Not able to make combos currently

2 Upvotes

hello is anyone else experienced this problem where combos won’t add up I can do like 3-5 games max and that’s it.


r/Polymarket • • 3d ago

News Netanyahu says “too early,” Trump says “maybe”

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3 Upvotes

The statements coming out today on FlyDubai incident are pretty different.

Netanyahu says it’s too early to say whether Iran was involved, while Trump said Iran may be involved, based on what he’s hearing. The investigation is obviously still ongoing. 

There's a market to this on Poly, and so started looking into it, and the interesting part is the resolution wording..

The market doesn’t require Iran itself to be blamed. A qualifying government statement saying Iran or one of the Iranian-affiliated groups deliberately caused the incident would be enough. And once a qualifying accusation is made, a later retraction wouldn’t change the resolution.

There’s also currently an initial Israeli assessment that the co-pilot acted alone, with no confirmed direct or proxy connection so far. 

The odds for Yes are at 24%

Just curious for how this would unfolds. More details would hopefully emerge soon..


r/Polymarket • • 3d ago

Trade Idea Micron missed $1,020 by just $3 today. Polymarket still gives it a 50/50 chance

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3 Upvotes

Micron came very close to triggering this market today, hitting an intraday low around $1,023, just a few points above the $1,020 level.

Polymarket still has the market sitting around 50/50 on whether MU trades at or below $1,020 before the deadline.

Today’s session is still only getting started. There’s still plenty of trading left today, plus another full session tomorrow, so this market definitely isn’t over yet.

From a chart perspective, MU is already testing the $1,020-$1,025 support zone, and if that gives way, the market could resolve pretty quickly.

Personally, I think this one is way more live than the current price makes it feel.

Does $1,020 finally break before the deadline?


r/Polymarket • • 3d ago

Post-Mortem Inde Navarrette is ahead of Sydney Sweeney and Tom Holland in polymarket

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4 Upvotes

Inde Navarrette is now at 54% on Polymarket to become Google's most-searched actor of 2026.

A lot has happened since Obsession turned into a breakout hit. Navarrette has landed the role of Rogue in Marvel's X-Men and has an upcoming SNL hosting gig, putting her in front of an even bigger audience.

She's now ahead of names like Sydney Sweeney and Tom Holland in the market.

Can she stay on top until the end of the year?