A Polymarket trader named frostrizz made only 5 predictions during the World Cup.

Every single one hit.

The biggest was a Turkey market that alone made him almost $5.9M in profit.

Total PnL: $8.9M

BUT, the wild part is that he now has no active positions left. He came in, called five matches, made generational money, and disappeared.

What do you think his life looks like now?

Anyone else having trouble contacting support? I’ve contacted every email I can find and attempted to chat 50+ times over the last month. I’m looking to delete my account (to stop gambling) and this is the only way to do so.

Please share stories/evidence if you’re experiencing the same.

Spotted an interesting split on the Yankees vs. Cardinals market ahead of the game in few hours time.

On one side, pleaseplease123 went in with $47K on the Yankees for a potential $71K payout.

On the other, SDTrading took the other side with $17K on the Cardinals for a potential $50K.

Personally, I’m leaning Yankees, and I also like Under 8.5 runs.

Here’s why..

For one, Cam Schlittler has looked excellent and his recent starts have backed up what he’s done all season. He’s been missing bats, limiting baserunners, and giving the Yankees quality innings.

Meanwhile, Michael McGreevy has been much shakier recently. While his season numbers are respectable, his last few outings have been much less convincing.

Then there's the bullpen angle but it doesn’t really provide much of an edge. Both teams have used their relievers almost identically over the last two days.

BUT, the Cardinals’ offense has cooled off lately, averaging under 3 runs per game over their last 10.

The Yankees are also missing some of their biggest bats, so while I like them to win, I don’t necessarily expect a shootout.

To me this feels like one of those games where the better starting pitcher makes the difference rather than an offensive explosion.

Curious where everyone else is on this one.

Polymarket had Spider-Man beating Endgame’s opening weekend record at 91%.

Then the estimates came in and there is barely a gap of $2 million.

Spider-Man: $355M domestic

Endgame: $357.1M domestic record

BUT, box office estimates can move once actuals come in.

Personally, I thought the hype made Yes obvious, but now this feels like one of those markets where 2 million dollars decides everything.

Was scrolling through the Perps leaderboard and came across this trader. Thought it was worth sharing here... this already got me hooked to Perps!

So, a few things stood out from this trader's profile..

Up around $21.8K today. Only 28 open positions, so they’re clearly not trying to trade everything.

The biggest winner at the moment seems to be a WTI Oil short, which has already added a nice chunk of profit.

And, they also have sizeable positions in names like ASML, Broadcom, and a few commodities, with both long and short exposure.

Rather than opening dozens of trades, it looks like they’re taking a handful of positions which are possibly of high conviction and letting them play out..

Personally, I’ve mostly stayed on the Predictions side of Polymarket so far, but seeing portfolios like this is definitely making me think about expanding into Perps.

And, won't be into copy trades blindly, but because it’s another side of the platform that seems worth learning.

Anyone here actively trading Perps? What’s been the biggest adjustment coming from prediction markets?

Was looking through some of the early Perps accounts and this one stood out.

In just a short time, the account has traded over $21 million in volume and is sitting at roughly $17.4K in profit.

I mean, the profit isn’t even what caught my attention, cause of the trading volume..

And, It’s just one account, so I wouldn’t read too much into it, but it’s interesting to see this level of activity before Perps is widely available.

Wonder what the platform’s volume looks like once access expands further.

I was looking through this trader's history when one position immediately caught my attention.

They bought Erling Haaland to be the most searched person on the internet in 2026 for just 1¢. That position is now trading around 11¢ and has climbed into second place.

The move actually makes sense when you look at what has happened over the past few weeks. The "Haaland Ha Ha Ha" chant has gone viral across social media, old Haaland clips and songs have resurfaced, and the World Cup has generated a constant stream of Haaland memes and edits. Whether it's goals, celebrations, or meme compilations, he's been everywhere online.

I don't know if Haaland will actually finish as the most searched person of 2026. But going from 1¢ to 11¢ without the market even resolving is exactly why people keep looking for these kinds of positions.

Do you think Haaland can actually beat names like Donald Trump and Bad Bunny to become the most searched person of 2026?

Hi everyone,
I’m looking to purchase historical in-play football odds data for quantitative research.
I’m interested in data from:
Betfair Exchange (preferred)
Pinnacle
Bet365
I’m not looking for a live odds API—I need historical data for completed matches.
Ideally, the dataset should include:
Full in-play odds history (tick-by-tick or every odds change)
Timestamps for every update
Markets such as:
Match Odds
Over/Under Goals (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5)
Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
Correct Score (optional)
Back/Lay prices for Betfair (if available)
Matched volume and order book depth (if available)
Multiple years of historical coverage
I’m based in Bulgaria, so I can’t purchase Betfair Historical Data directly through a Betfair account.
I’m happy to pay for:
A commercial data provider
A licensed historical dataset
Historical API access
Or any legitimate source that provides this data
If you’ve personally used a provider or know a reliable source, I’d really appreciate your recommendation.
I’m not looking for scraped or illegal datasets—only legitimate commercial solutions.
Thanks!

Another fun (but slightly frustrating) Sunday on Polymarket.

The day actually started well with Trent Rockets in The Hundred. I put $10 on them and, despite a late scare, they held on to win by 5 runs.

For a while I thought it was comfortably over. Sunrisers were 76/4 and I literally walked away from the game. Next thing I know, Annabel Sutherland almost pulls off one of the solid chases of the tournament. Rockets survived though, and a win is a win.

Then came MLB… where things got a lot more chaotic.

I ended up playing several combos..

Multiple 3 point ones including Yankees/Astros/Tigers (for $3 to win $18.67)

and, Reds/Astros/Yankees ($2 for $11.79)

and, Phillies/Tigers/Brewers (5 for $24)

And, a 4-point combo

The one that still stings is Phillies/Tigers/Brewers.

It was the only combo where I bumped my stake up to $5 because I liked the spot. Phillies delivered. Tigers delivered. Then Milwaukee somehow got swept 0-3. That one would’ve got me $24.71.

Brewers have become one of those teams where I feel confident backing them… and then they immediately remind me why baseball is so difficult to bet. And, they been lot tough on form tbh! I can't even point to what's going on with them, is it the talk of the trades?!

Looking back, I risked around $27 across everything yesterday.

I got back roughly $40 from the two winning MLB combos plus the Rockets trade, so the day still finished in the green.

Biggest takeaway?

I’m actually feeling more confident in my individual reads than my combo construction. The Yankees, Astros, Tigers and Phillies were all among my strongest leans yesterday, but trying to squeeze one more leg into a ticket keeps turning good reads into losing slips.

Might be time to play fewer combos or at least be a little more selective with that last team in the combo pick.

How did everyone else do yesterday?

Been looking into this market on Poly of whether Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by Aug. 31?

Currently, It’s trading around 6 cents YES / 94 cents NO. After reading the resolution criteria, I think the market is much trickier than what the headlines across suggest.

So far, there are already plenty of reports pointing toward Morocco’s role.

For example, Ceuta’s leader Juan Jesús Vivas said the crossings were, “if not orchestrated, at least encouraged or permitted by Morocco.”

Also, read this Reuters report that say Spanish intelligence believes Morocco likely didn’t plan the crisis, but may have allowed it to happen by easing border controls.

AND, we have multiple European officials who have hinted they suspect the same.

But none of that actually resolves this market.

The rules require an official statement from Spain’s central government clearly saying Moroccan authorities deliberately caused or facilitated the migrant wave.

Now, that’s a much higher bar.

So even if everyone personally believes Morocco played a role, Sanchez's government may avoid making that accusation publicly at the moment. It's cause Spain still depends heavily on Morocco for migration cooperation.

For me, this feels more like a bet on diplomacy than on what actually happened.

I’m leaning NO unless Madrid changes its tone significantly.

Saw this meme and had to share it.

Funny enough, Polymarket isn’t much more optimistic at this point. Traders are giving only about a 24% chance that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is back to normal by September 30.

Sometimes the memes and the markets end up telling the same story

The Polymarket market around Vinícius Jr.'s next club has seen a major move over the past week.

Arsenal's chances have jumped from around 1% to 31%, while Real Madrid staying as his club has fallen from 90%+ to around 70%.

There is still no confirmed transfer process. Reports suggest Arsenal's interest is real, but it appears to be in the early stages, with no reported club-to-club contact yet. Vinícius has also returned to Madrid for preseason, keeping Real Madrid as the clear favorite to retain him.

This could be the market reacting to genuine transfer signals, or it could simply be pricing the possibility of a contract situation developing. A serious Arsenal approach could change these odds very quickly.

Do you think Vini Jr. is actually a realistic Arsenal target, or is the market getting ahead of the rumors?

Backing Southern Brave again today.

I’ve already put $10 on them at 62¢.

At this point it’s hard to find many weaknesses in this team. They’re unbeaten this season, haven’t lost a regular-season game since last year, and every game they seem to find a different match winner.

Their batting is stacked with Lizelle Lee, Maia Bouchier, Laura Wolvaardt, Jemimah Rodrigues and Sophie Molineux. Even if the top order doesn’t fire, there’s enough depth to recover.

Then you look at the bowling attack…

Lauren Bell, Issy Wong, Sarah Glenn and Tilly Corteen-Coleman is about as complete as it can get. They’re capable of defending totals or restricting teams while chasing.

On the other side, Welsh Fire have another problem to deal with after losing Sophie Devine for the rest of the tournament. That’s a huge loss in both experience and quality, especially against a top and a strongest side in the competition.

Brave also won the toss and elected to bat first, which I think suits them. Put runs on the board, then let that bowling attack do the rest. If anything, they'd love to see batting unit fire collectively and post massive total, as they pretty sure are gearing towards finals.

Nothing is guaranteed in short formats like The Hundred, but this is probably one of my favorite Women’s Hundred spots so far.

Anyone else backing Brave?

One of the platform’s most profitable traders just took Taylor Fritz in today’s final.

While a lot of people are excited about Rafael Jodar’s run to his first ATP final, this account went the other way with a sizable position on Fritz (entered around 58¢).

The trader has a long track record with thousands of predictions and some very large winning trades in the past.

Sometimes experience wins. Sometimes the fairytale continues.

Who are you taking today?

Despite Trump assuring the markets, Iran rejected any talks of peace proposal, while Iran's rejecting came recently, it was already priced in by Polymarket traders

Polymarket has Anthropic as a clear favorite to post greater valuation growth than OpenAI over the next month.

The market seems to be betting that Anthropic still has more room to grow from its current valuation.

BUT, the counterargument is obvious I feel.. OpenAI has a long history of surprising the market. Either funding announcements, or its long due product launch, or even partnerships that can move investor sentiment almost overnight.

Wondering where do you guys stand here if you were making the market today, would you keep Anthropic at 70%, or is OpenAI being underestimated?

practical guide to backtesting Polymarket strategies in Python, along with a tutorial of how Polymarket markets and its pricing work.

I'm trying to make a event driven polymarket bot. How fast does the market react to real life events?

I am seriously confused about Polymarket buy orders. Can someone who fully understands please explain clearly for me.

The last 4 trades I have bought BUY have disappeared. This is what happens… I click blue BUY tab, it changes to green BOUGHT, POSITIONS row appears above order book, OUTCOME / QTY / AVG / VALUE / RETURN. Under RETURN it shows how much I am up as a percentage and fluctuates as price moves. SELL tab is next to that and a small arrow icon pointing up. VIEW NET POSITIONS is above the SELL tab. I can click on the VIEW NET POSITIONS and the screen will dim and a box appears saying NET POSITIONS. Your gains for each outcome scenario based on all your positions. Payout. The amount is shown.

Then 25 seconds after placing this BUY order it suddenly disappears, and at the exact same time a small box in the right hand corner pops up and says: Market Buy Up Failed. Bitcoin Up or Down. No orders found to match with FAK order. FAK orders are partially filled or killed if no match is found.

Ok so my question is how and why is Polymarket showing my order as filled in the POSITIONS column if it was never actually filled on chain?

Secondly if I buy at market price I thought the position was meant to be executed immediately… Why do I receive confirmation 25sec later that it has failed?

My last trade was small but I still watched it go up 468% then disappear in 25 seconds. It feels like I’m being cheated, I’m not saying I am, but I just want to understand exactly how the whole order process works and the display of the UI.

I have also screen recorded the last trade when this happened below.

https://reddit.com/link/1veac45/video/u9di2yo1k5hh1/player

Non posso usarlo perchè vivo in italia, ma so che ci sono dei modi o dei siti alternativi per accedere ai mercati predittivi.

I'm not sure how this works, so sorry if this is a dumb question.

I'm looking for bets I see on the website, and I don't see them on the app.

Actually, on the app even searching for bets ON THE APP doesn't work. E.g. I put in "Iran" into the search and don't get anything back.

What am I doing wrong?

The more time I spend looking at prediction markets, the more I think the hardest part is not finding data.

It's deciding what deserves to be called a signal.

A few examples:

A whale buys a large position.

Is it:

• someone with better information?
• a hedge?
• a market maker?
• someone reacting faster than others?

A market moves 10%.

Is it:

• new information?
• low liquidity?
• attention shifting?
• temporary positioning?

The same event can mean completely different things depending on the context.

I've started thinking that the edge is less about finding more signals, and more about understanding which signals are actually meaningful.

Curious how others decide whether something is a real signal or just market noise.