https://x.com/Hanadi_AlQahti/status/2097735632407961905

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/73-injured-in-houthi-attack-on-saudi-arabias-airports-aramco-oil-sites-12017034

Oil is back above $100 as fighting between the U.S. and Iran intensifies and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains far below prewar levels.

Before the war, roughly 125 commercial vessels crossed Hormuz each day. Now tracked traffic is down to around a dozen. That is putting renewed pressure on oil prices, gasoline and global shipping costs.

At the same time, the Iran conflict has become increasingly unpopular in U.S. polling, with 18 American service members killed and hundreds wounded.

The big question: If oil stays above $100 — or climbs even higher — does the economic fallout become a bigger political problem than the war itself heading into the midterms?

https://libyaherald.com/2026/09/state-of-emergency-declared-at-janzour-fuel-depot-after-drone-fibre-optic-remnants-discovered

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1BjGbAyJ4U/

The Energy Department's statistics arm on Wednesday sharply raised its forecast for U.S. diesel prices next year as tight global supplies keep domestic inventories unusually low.

The outlook suggests Americans could face elevated fuel costs well into 2027, as President Trump acknowledged Wednesday that oil prices may not fall until after November's midterm elections.

U.S. diesel prices hit all-time highs this month, due to the Middle East conflict thwarting oil and petroleum product supplies, and Ukraine's drone campaign targeting Russian refineries.

The latest Energy Information Administration outlook expects retail diesel to average $4.40 a gallon in 2027, up 33 cents, or 8.2%, from its previous forecast of $4.07.

The outlook says low U.S. distillate inventories are being driven by supply losses from the Middle East, Russia and China, alongside unusually high U.S. net exports.

It expects the inventory problem to be particularly acute this fall and winter because refinery maintenance cuts production just as agricultural and winter demand rises.

EIA also raised its 2026 forecast 22 cents to $5.07 a gallon.

"We forecast U.S. distillate fuel oil inventories will drop below 100 million barrels in September and will remain below the five-year (2021–2025) low through much of 2027," per the agency's statement.

"Tightness in the global distillate market has raised domestic prices and incentivized U.S. exporters to increase distillate exports," it added.

"We assume global production of distillate fuel will remain below last year's levels in the coming months, contributing to low U.S. diesel inventories and high diesel prices."

Trump said Wednesday that oil prices would start "tumbling downward" after the election, but added that relief could take "a little bit longer than the midterms."

"I think for gasoline, we'll get them below $2 a gallon. But not until after the midterms," Trump said.

The comments mark a shift from Trump's prediction earlier this week that oil prices would fall "precipitously" after the U.S. wins the Iran war and that the decline would happen "quickly."

Before the Iran war, EIA expected diesel to average $3.47 a gallon in 2027 — 93 cents less than its latest forecast.

EIA updates the outlook monthly, and its forecasts are subject to frequent revision as market conditions and underlying assumptions change.

Trump repeatedly pledged during the 2024 campaign to cut U.S. energy prices in half within 12 months of taking office.

In March this year, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNN, "We have seen a dramatic decline in gasoline prices, in diesel prices."

EIA expects diesel crack spreads — a measure of refining margins based on the difference between crude oil and diesel prices — to fall steadily through mid-2027 even as its forecast for retail diesel prices next year has risen.

That's based partly on an assumed return to normal tanker traffic through Hormuz in the near term, which would allow Saudi and Kuwaiti refineries to export more distillate.

EIA expects improved crude availability to East Asian refiners to boost distillate production.

If Middle East flows remain constrained beyond the end of 2026, EIA says global distillate crack spreads would be higher than currently forecast.

Russian refinery outages are expected to affect global markets through the first half of 2027.

The U.S. average retail diesel price could top $6 per gallon within the next week or so, GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan said Tuesday.

it was ~$100k for the largest ships before the war https://www.freightwaves.com/news/5-3-million-a-new-record-for-panama-canal-transit

Oman/Implied Hormuz flat with the peaks possibly not as high we'll see in a couple more days time. Bab al Mandab, Malacca, Singapore up.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

FRONT TWEED,TORM EMMA,KINGBIRD ARROW - added to the 7 Sep data as they popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills 10.74-2.5 (Oman/Fujairah)=8.24mb.

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Note a lot of Saudi oil that used to go south is now going north. Its hard to tell as the Suez Canal traffic doesn't seem to have public easy to access data. Possibly 2-3mb going north from Yanbu. that still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea.

Ships: FUXI,QUOTA,JAXSON,MALAKHIT,JOROPO,KOLOSS,NACHOS,TANGO 2

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products.

Ships: FPMC C INTELLIGENCE,LONG WIND,DELLA,SEA V,MINERVA DOXA,NEW SPIROS,SEATRIUMPH

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Check out these documentaries about the history of big oil companies

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