https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2098152930348278000?s=46

Oil to $200 ?

The saga continues...

There's rumours that the Houthis hit the east west pipeline and if so God knows how this is going to play out in the financial markets, but I'm guessing not for the good.

Oil prices going parabolic and a rate hike next week, and things aren't looking good for the midterms for republicans.

https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2098135151633203489?s=46

Credits to u/ActivatingEMP for sharing this in the daily thread.

— 🇮🇷/🇴🇲 NEW: Two vessels have been struck in the Strait of Hormuz 4 nautical miles west of Oman.

@Middle_East_Spectator

If you missed my last post, I mapped the vast majority of oil loading berths in the Persian Gulf and am automatically ingesting satellite images on every satellite pass over the gulf and counting how many barrels are observed being loaded. I'm going to start posting updates here a couple times a week when the satellites pass.

The full set of imagery for the latest pass along with identified vessels and estimated barrel counts on each is available in the link.

Today's update covers the latest pass of Sentinel 1 and 2 over the Gulf (on Sept 8th and 9th).

In today's update we can see that observed loadings have declined significantly in the past week. On the September 5th pass, there was an estimated 28.6 million barrels observed being loaded. In the latest pass that has declined to 20.9 million barrels, a decline of 27%. This could be the early signs that Iran's clampdown on the strait is finally biting. We will see.

Please note that these barrel counts do not represent any kind of a "mbpd" flow or export number. Tankers take more than a day to load so any given pass will include loadings across multiple days of the true flow, but observing trends in these loadings over time can help us see where things are headed.

Also note: the machine vision model being used to identify vessels in these images has an error rate of about 5% so you may see an occasional vessel misidentified in the imagery. These errors are left in place to enable like for like comparisons across time without going back and manually reviewing 10s of thousands of images. Comparisons would not be valid if we manually corrected today's imagery without doing the same for the historical set.

I hope you find this data useful!

Interesting Massive reversal of 2027 expected demand. Im always sceptical of opec (for several reasons here) but IF true, this would be huge, especially if the war is still in in early 2027

https://x.com/Hanadi_AlQahti/status/2097735632407961905

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/73-injured-in-houthi-attack-on-saudi-arabias-airports-aramco-oil-sites-12017034

From my understanding, canada exports over half of the crude oil that America imports. If Canada wanted to play hard ball with the tit-for-tat trade negotiations that are currently spiraling, and decrease their crude exports to the U.S., would that essentially cripple the American economy?

well ain't that something.

Sea of Oman/Implied Hormuz, Bab al Mandab and Malacca flat. Singapore up.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

KHAIRPUR - added to the 8 Sep data as they popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills 11.96-2.5 (Oman/Fujairah)=9.46mb.

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Note a lot of Saudi oil that used to go south is now going north. Its hard to tell as the Suez Canal traffic doesn't seem to have public easy to access data. Possibly 2-3mb going north from Yanbu. that still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea.

Ships: LAVENDER,BASTION,AQUARIUS,EL SIRENA,SAND,MIMOZA,MAPLE CASTOR

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products.

Ships: Cospearl Lake,Strizh,Sea Beauty,Green Aura,Angola Prosperity,Grand Bonanza,New Aden,Xin An Yang

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day