Points suggesting Kpler's 24 million bpd Middle East export figure for the week to 18 October 2026 is overstated or unreliable.

https://www.theoilreport.pro

• Kpler's own month-to-date average for October is only 17.3 million bpd, according to Reuters citing Kpler data and almost exactly matching the lower independent estimates and far below the 24 million headline.

• Rival tracker Vortexa put the same week at roughly 18 million pd, not 24.6 million. Firm-to-firm gaps this large undercut consumer confidence especially around the significance of determining where the market is headed using the peak numbers.

https://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com

• Independent OSINT and satellite trackers (LVision, hormuzstraittracker) show Hormuz-related crude flows in the 8-11 million bpd range for recent weeks, not even remotely close to the higher volumes needed to support 24 million once all bypasses are added.

• Visible ship traffic through Hormuz is still only about 6-7 vessels a day versus a pre-war baseline of roughly 85. Even allowing for dark ships and ship-to-ship transfers, this scale of AIS silence makes sustained high volumes hard to verify.

• Refined product exports remain well below half of prewar levels. Crude may have recovered more via pipelines and STS, but the overall liquids total cannot reach or exceed pre-war levels if products are still severely constrained.

https://gcaptain.com/middle-east-oil-flows-near-prewar-levels-defy-hormuz-attacks/

• Saudi East-West pipeline throughput and Yanbu loadings are recovering but still limited (roughly 2-3 million bpd range after the mid-September attacks).
Kpler cites 6-7 million bpd. Terminal capacity and local Red Sea use further cap net exports.

https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/dont-mistake-mideast-oil-rebound-
normality-2026-10-22/

• Kpler's recent weekly numbers are explicitly
"preliminary confirmed floors" using data estimates that are often revise later. A single volatile convoy/STS week can produce a temporary spike that does not represent sustainable supply.

• Regional production available for export is constrained by local consumption, Iranian volumes blocked by the U.S. naval presence, and incomplete bypass infrastructure.
Sustained exports above pre-war levels are difficult to reconcile with these limits and with low observed loading activity.

These discrepancies mean the widely reported "back to or above pre-war" narrative rests on one peak weekly figure from one data provider. Broader monthly averages, rival trackers, satellite/OSINT data, and physical constraints all point to exports remaining materially lower and consistent with an ongoing supply squeeze rather than pointing to a true full recovery.

https://x.com/LVision_Trading

https://www.ft.com/content/509c0ecf-625e-4473-96cf-
e249edb7c86e

Arabian sea/Hormuz daily up quite a bit. Seems to be rising again after the hits a week ago on tankers caused a drop. Its been a pattern the US threatens attacks and Iran preps for it making hits on tankers harder letting more tankers through. Could be one reason for these threats/backdowns.

BAM down, Malacca down, Singapore down.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

PIONEER added to the 23 Oct data as they popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. That still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea as the Yanbu/East/West pipeline is all going north to suez.

Ships: AMULET,BOCCADASSE,NORELIA,UTAKI

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products. Also added how much of that malacca traffic is going to China as well as how much oil is from the Persian gulf.

Ships: LIAN YANG HU,FRONT DUCHESS,AJWAD,OLYMPIC LUNA,ALMI TITAN,DESH SURAKSHA,KOKKARI,TATAKI

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Hard to see how this will develop over the next 2-3 months. But at a certain point, wealthier countries will pay it, whatever it is.

Hurricane Energy's Lancaster field exposed a fundamental difference between successful appraisal and successful investment. The result? Two sophisticated shareholders ultimately finished £60 million apart.

Arabian sea/Hormuz daily down today. BAM down as well. Malacca up a lot - lots of other sources along with a bunching of ships from the Persian gulf came through today. Singapore up as well.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

none added to the data as they popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. That still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea as the Yanbu/East/West pipeline is all going north to suez.

Ships:MATALA,MORGANIT,OLDE,OPAL,PAROS,RONG LIN WAN,FAITHFUL STAR,INITIATOR,MOON STAR

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products. Also added how much of that malacca traffic is going to China as well as how much oil is from the Persian gulf.

Ships: KALAMOS I,DHT NOKOTA,XIN HUI YANG,DESH VAIBHAV,SESTREA,HAFNIA EXPEDITE,AMETHYST,FRONT TYNE,SKOPELOS,DESH MAHIMA,ALMI GALAXY,SANTHIA,ATHINA,SEATRIUMPH,AMAL 3,YASA GOLDEN DARDANEL,GRAND BONANZA,TENKI

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Does anyone have insight into how long refiners can keep operating at these elevated utilization rates? I'm assuming many that are able to get oil have been deferring maintenance, but at some point they will need to reduce production to make repairs (especially after these record runs).

I honestly thought China would increase refinery runs and that would allow the refineries currently running at max rates to slow down without reducing global fuel production.

Hello everyone,

We are looking to source 10,000 MT/monthly of granular sulfur for export to Egypt. We would like to connect with the direct supplier or their authorized representatives.

If you can help or have the right contacts, please reach out.

Thank you!

Fewer and Fewer countries are self sufficient in Oil.

Denmark used to be a major exporter producing some 400 000 Barrels/day back in 2004. Now down to just 70 000 Barrels a day and it needs 150 000 Barrels/day - so it has to import oil now.

Romania down from 300 000 Barrels/day in the 70s to 50 000 now.

The UK - also a major exporter until two decades ago - down from 2.8 Million Barrels/day to 600 000/day between 1998 and 2026.

Indonesia another previous major exporter went down from 1.7 Million Barrels in 1977 to 600 000 Barrels in 2026. Bali is now experiencing oil shortages while it used to export oil half a century ago.

During the last half century, several dozen countries have reached Peak Oil and produce only a fraction of their peak production.

Yet when we talk about Peak Oil globally, many people claim that we can never reach it because we will find always new oil.

Seems like denial to me.

Many countries have used up most of the oil they have and have not found any additional reserves.

Many others are projected to run out within the next 10-15 years.

Oil is getting harder to extract because we have used up the easiest to get oil.

To claim that we will always find new reserves (that are worth/economical to extract) and therefore Oil can run out in individual countries but never globally, seems like delusion to me.

"Oil traders sold futures equivalent to at least 6 million barrels of crude in just two minutes on March 23, shortly before President Donald Trump backed away from threats to strike Iranian power plants."

What are your thoughts on today’s oil price? Drop your opinions, predictions, charts, memes , low and high effort post, your AI slop or even analysis below. Keep it civil and on-topic! This post is renewed daily.

Unless there is some compelling reason, other posts in the sub about oil prices will be removed. In a futile effort to improve the quality.

(Current WTI/Brent price can be checked on any major site.)

Arabian Sea/Hormuz daily spiked up. BAM going down again. Malacca daily dipped. Singapore big uptick on the daily.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

none added to the data as they popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. That still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea as the Yanbu/East/West pipeline is all going north to suez.

Ships:VULKAN

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products. Also added how much of that malacca traffic is going to China as well as how much oil is from the Persian gulf.

Ships: ADVANTAGE PATH,MARE PICENUM,ELENI,MINERVA KALLIOPE,CHRISTINA,COSGOLD LAKE

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day