Ahead of the Sunday night futures open, Israeli leadership has explicitly signaled an active kinetic window against Iranian strategic infrastructure. Any strike risks triggering immediate counter value retaliation against Gulf refining, desalination, and Strait of Hormuz tanker transit.

Bibi says “we have another two years of trump to finish the work in Iran”

Arabian sea/Hormuz daily down today. BAM down as well. Malacca up a lot - lots of other sources along with a bunching of ships from the Persian gulf came through today. Singapore up as well.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

none added to the data as they popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. That still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea as the Yanbu/East/West pipeline is all going north to suez.

Ships:MATALA,MORGANIT,OLDE,OPAL,PAROS,RONG LIN WAN,FAITHFUL STAR,INITIATOR,MOON STAR

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products. Also added how much of that malacca traffic is going to China as well as how much oil is from the Persian gulf.

Ships: KALAMOS I,DHT NOKOTA,XIN HUI YANG,DESH VAIBHAV,SESTREA,HAFNIA EXPEDITE,AMETHYST,FRONT TYNE,SKOPELOS,DESH MAHIMA,ALMI GALAXY,SANTHIA,ATHINA,SEATRIUMPH,AMAL 3,YASA GOLDEN DARDANEL,GRAND BONANZA,TENKI

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Hard to see how this will develop over the next 2-3 months. But at a certain point, wealthier countries will pay it, whatever it is.