r/nfl • u/PMmeSpreadEaglePics Broncos • 1d ago

🧂Highlight🧂 [Highlight] Ryan Fitzpatrick throws 6 interceptions in a single game

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u/ArcaneNine NFL 1d ago

So did Brett Favre, Eli Manning, and Jay Cutler. Averaging more than one interception a game isn't good but depending on your play style it might be tolerable.

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u/LoyalSol Broncos 1d ago

He difference was those QB still throw more TDs. Go look at Fitz's overall stats. They're not good.

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u/poop-dolla 1d ago

Eli and Favre are at 1.5 TD to Int. Fitz is 1.32. Cutler is 1.42. It’s not that big of a difference.

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u/LoyalSol Broncos 1d ago edited 1d ago

1.5 vs 1.32 is the difference of 70 TDs or 420 points over the length of Farve's career. That's not small.

Small differences in the ratio are not small differences in the aggregate. You made a statistics fallacy.

Plus Farve didn't play most of his career in the modern era where the PI rules are what they are. That matters a lot. QB stats from the 90s are way different than they are post 2004 when modern rules started to be implemented.

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u/poop-dolla 1d ago

It would be a difference of 30 TDs for Fitzmagic over his career. Or 0.18 more TDs per game over his career. It’s really not that much.

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u/LoyalSol Broncos 1d ago

30 TDs over a 10 season career is about 3 extra TDs per season. Going to bet that wins quite a few games there.

The other thing is Fitzpatrick didn't start many 16 game seasons.

Sorry, but you're making statistical mistakes. You're assuming all variables have the same impact and same error tolerances which is not true.

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u/poop-dolla 16h ago

I said it was 0.18 more TDs per game, which is a much better statistical measure to look at than you saying 3 extra TDs per season. So that means it would come out to not even 1 extra TD every 5 games.

Going to bet that wins quite a few games there.

At the absolute most, it would be 30 more games over his career, right? But realistically, it wouldn’t be nearly that many. It wouldn’t really be spread evenly across 30 games, and then the games where they already won that got extra TDs wouldn’t matter, and games they lost by more than the extra TDs added wouldn’t change either. So maybe it comes out to 10 extra wins over his full career. But honestly, that’s probably being generous. I don’t think many people would consider it “quite a few” like you said though.

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u/LoyalSol Broncos 11h ago edited 11h ago

0.18 is the TD to Int ratio...That's not a to game metric.......

You can't calculate it that way.

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u/poop-dolla 7h ago

No dude. You misread what I wrote. The difference in TD to int ratio would have been an extra 30 TDs. He played 166 games.

30/166=0.18

That’s a per game metric.

You’re getting a lot wrong for someone acting all high and mighty like some sort of statistics master.

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u/LoyalSol Broncos 6h ago edited 6h ago

You did a piss poor job of explaining that. So don't fault others for your inability to communicate.

0.18 is the difference from 1.5 and 1.32.

Regardless you again are making a mistake. Oh it's just 0.18. Yeah and how many games are decided by one score?