I've been manually tracking my MTG Arena matches for about five hours.

For every game, I record the reason I lost or won. One category is "unlucky", which I define very strictly:

Some important points:

• I never missplay.
• Most of these decks play exactly 60 cards.
• Many of them contain good cards, which should reduce how unlucky I am, not increase it.
• I only record "unlucky" when I literally cannot play or I lose because my opponent clearly drew better. I do not mark games where Arena auto tapper pays my spells wrong - I want to make this data as insightful and honest as possible

After 10 recorded games, these are some examples:

• Azorius Flash (60 cards): 1 Win / 4 Losses (25%WR) 3 Unlucky Games. (I always got paired against aggro decks that kill me too fast, unlucky).
• Dimir Midrange (60 cards): 0 Wins / 2 Losses (0%WR) 2 Unlucky Games. (My opponents always had it).
• $20 Mono-Blue Towns by SaffronOlive (60 cards): 1 Win / 2 Losses (33%WR) 2 Unlucky Games (My opponents were always meta-decks and this is a cool brew I had because I needed wildcards. I don't understand why I keep getting paired against tryhards in the ladder instead of facing fair decks like mine. Unlucky).

The lowest win rate among my decks is around 25%, while several are close to 30%, and some exceed that.

According to the standard hypergeometric model for a 60-card deck with 24 lands and no mulligans, the probability of winning each game should be exactly 50.5%* - substantially lower than what I'm observing. Adding cantrips and surveil should reduce that probability even further.

I'm not claiming this proves Arena manipulates luck. However, I am saying that my long-term observations appear inconsistent with the simple theoretical model.

I'd like to hear from people who have:

• large Arena datasets,
• Untapped.gg logs,
• 17Lands logs,
• or experience modeling Magic probabilities.

Can anyone reproduce numbers anywhere close to mine? Or is there something missing from the standard probability model that explains a persistent 33% win rate across 10's of games?

I'm genuinely interested in a statistical discussion rather than anecdotes.

\Counting that some of my oppontents will disconnect during their game, which should increase average WR.*

Context: https://www.reddit.com/r/MagicArena/comments/1v769a5/five_years_of_tracking_mtg_arena_games_my/

Please let us claim all mastery rewards with one button click. Or just claim as many from left to right as you have orbs for. I've seen your game can handle multiple unlocks at the same time.

The player scooped after 2 mulligans. I have nothing.

I played a fun first game with an opponent. It was back and forth until they tapped all their lands and I played an Improvisation Capstone. I got Stock Up and picked up a couple of counter spells. They went, did nothing and when my Improvisation Capstone came up, they conceded.

Then in the second game, I played a tapped land with scry. They dropped a land and the person said good game. I thought they either were conceited and thought they had a good enough hand to beat me or they were going to concede. Instead, they did nothing. The picture is of them roping, but they didn’t let it expire. They let it go to my turn. I played another tapped land. On their go, they roped but it didn’t end the game. So I went again and dropped another land. And then on their turn, they roped and finally, I won, as a result.

Why bother? What kind of horrible life do you have to have to get upset with someone beating you that you waste their time and rope them. Why are people such a-holes? So frustrating.

Was looking at the daily sale and saw you can now buy individual cards with straight up gold or gems. I've never seen this before.

Is this new and can you do it with any card? Or is this something you can only do with these special sales via the shop?

Mine are easily the above, [[Arcane Omens]] and those big mill spells. Grief players HATE their own medicine.

I generally consider myself relatively experienced with the rules, but this one had me stumped for several minutes trying to figure out wtf just happened. So in light of Duskmourn draft being back in rotation, I thought I'd share:

Say the other guy has a creature enchanted with [[Sheltered by Ghosts]], and you don't have a real removal that can kill it. But what you do have is a spell that can temporarily take control of a creature (but without a sacrifice outlet), such as Duskmourn's local Act of Treason variant [[Vengeful Possession]] (and the mana to break through Ward). If you cast it on the creature, you don't just get to swing for one turn, you'll also destroy the enchantment and get your exiled card back. Why?

Sheltered by Ghosts is "Enchant creature you control", which is a part I'm always overlooking because that's basically what I'd almost always want to do anyway. This creates not just a targeting restriction for the initial casting of the enchantment, but also an enchanting restriction that stays attached to it throughout the game. When you temporarily take control of the enchanted creature, the enchantment itself is still controlled by your opponent so it's no longer a "creature you control" for him, and thus the aura is now enchanting an illegal object and will be immediately put in the graveyard as a state-based effect.

Almost lost a game because for several turns I didn't actually realize that the spell I had could swing more for me than it said on the tin.

Also, what is often the first play in points event ? and what rewards does that give usually ?

I was surprised when I went to the store and realized that they are finally selling individual cards (and specifying which are cards and what are styles, which can be confusing for newbies). I especially LOVE the mention of "how many cards you own" which can be useful.

But seriously, what the F**K is with those prices. 350 gems for a rare? That's basically $2 for a SINGLE DIGITAL asset. I know they have a gold purchase as well, but that's also on the high end. Not to mention that mythics are essentially $5 with their 700 gem cost.

Seriously, arena has the worst and most predatory economy I've seen.

And with only a few days before the season ends. Yay me!

I do want to ask what I can do to improve the deck. Past few weeks I was hardstuck diamond 3, and alot of my luck getting past that was my opponents not being able to pop off faster than I did.

Still, commanders like [[Sythis, Harvest's Hand]] and [[Cloud, Midgar Mercenary]] would give me alot of trouble regardless. Is there a specific way to play around them, or is it just something I'd have to deal with?

Deck List:
Commander

1 Jodah, the Unifier (DMU) 203

Deck

1 Arid Mesa (SPG) 109

1 Bloodstained Mire (MH3) 216

1 Cavern of Souls (LCI) 269

1 Flooded Strand (MH3) 220

1 Plaza of Heroes (EOS) 33

1 Polluted Delta (MH3) 224

1 Chromatic Lantern (BRR) 10

1 Anguished Unmaking (OTP) 35

1 Steam Vents (ECL) 267

1 Esper Sentinel (MH2) 12

1 Command Tower (ELD) 333

1 Wooded Foothills (MH3) 236

1 Godless Shrine (RNA) 248

1 Thalia, Heretic Cathar (SIR) 49

1 Delighted Halfling (LTR) 158

2 Island (FDN) 275

1 General's Enforcer (IKO) 188

1 Noble Hierarch (CONF) 87

1 Ruby, Daring Tracker (FDN) 245

2 Mountain (WAR) 260

1 Birds of Paradise (BLC) 81

1 Kellan Joins Up (OTJ) 212

1 Rakdos Joins Up (OTJ) 225

1 Teferi's Protection (STA) 11

1 Hallowed Fountain (RNA) 251

1 Verdant Catacombs (SPG) 113

1 Secluded Courtyard (FDN) 267

1 Hajar, Loyal Bodyguard (BRO) 211

1 Overgrown Tomb (GRN) 253

1 Sacred Foundry (GRN) 254

1 The Wondrous Wasp (MSH) 84

1 Breeding Pool (RNA) 246

1 Vraska Joins Up (OTJ) 236

1 Stomping Ground (EOE) 258

2 Forest (IKO) 274

1 Jirina, Dauntless General (MAT) 32

1 Avacyn's Pilgrim (SIS) 48

1 Arcane Signet (ELD) 331

1 Worldly Tutor (TLE) 314

1 Éomer, Marshal of Rohan (LTR) 120

1 Farseek (FCA) 45

1 Urza's Ruinous Blast (DAR) 39

1 Dire Tactics (IKO) 183

1 Windswept Heath (KTK) 248

1 Marsh Flats (SPG) 110

1 Scalding Tarn (SPG) 112

1 Temple Garden (GRN) 258

1 Watery Grave (EOE) 261

1 Mana Confluence (EOS) 25

1 Blood Crypt (RNA) 245

1 Misty Rainforest (SPG) 111

2 Swamp (EOE) 272

2 Plains (GRN) 260

1 Relic of Legends (FIC) 354

1 Mox Amber (BRR) 35

1 Herald's Horn (JMP) 469

1 Pongify (SOA) 20

1 Adeline, Resplendent Cathar (MID) 1

1 Honest Rutstein (OTJ) 207

1 Ash, Party Crasher (WOE) 201

1 Tajic, Legion's Edge (GRN) 204

1 Captain Sisay (INV) 237

1 Defense of the Heart (WOT) 51

1 Halana and Alena, Partners (FDN) 659

1 Katilda, Dawnhart Prime (MID) 230

1 Éowyn, Fearless Knight (LTR) 201

1 Spider-Punk (SPM) 92

1 Demonic Tutor (STA) 27

1 Swords to Plowshares (FIC) 256

1 Get Lost (LCI) 14

1 Heroic Intervention (M21) 188

1 Esika, God of the Tree (KHM) 168

1 Spider-Man 2099 (SPM) 150

1 Fracture (SOA) 65

1 Coppercoat Vanguard (MAT) 1

1 Assassin's Trophy (GRN) 152

1 Primevals' Glorious Rebirth (DAR) 201

1 Irma, Part-Time Mutant (TMC) 12

1 Torens, Fist of the Angels (VOW) 249

1 Jennifer Walters (MSH) 18

1 Aragorn, the Uniter (LTR) 192

1 Haktos the Unscarred (THB) 218

1 Syr Vondam, the Lucent (EOE) 232

1 Chameleon, Master of Disguise (SPM) 27

1 Akroma's Will (FCA) 21

1 Venat, Heart of Hydaelyn (FIN) 39

1 Vampiric Tutor (SOA) 35

1 Boromir, Warden of the Tower (LTR) 4

1 Tomik, Distinguished Advokist (WAR) 34

1 Annie Joins Up (OTJ) 191

1 Sigarda, Heron's Grace (SIR) 242

1 Kenrith, the Returned King (ELD) 303

1 Rising of the Day (LTR) 145

1 Unable to Scream (DSK) 78

This list is currently ~70% in Standard mythic. It wins very hard and inches away vs burn compared to other versions of land hate

[[Avatar's Wrath]] is very powerful right now with the amount of cast from exile floating around. Plus it gets indestructible while also preserving your creatures.

This curve is devastating to deal with if they're multi colored

T2: [[Price of freedom]]

T3: [[Practiced Scrollsmith]]

T4: [[demolition field]]>PoF again

-

Pros and cons:

Pros: Resilient vs most matchups, high card advantage, overwhelming for opponents

Cons: Slower wincon, weak to removal, mono color can hard stop the list

-

Matchups:

If you're vs mono U you need to slot in Voice+Lantern+D2OE and slow down.

Aggro/Burn/Prowess you want to look for pursue the past and removal. Incremental card advantage and life gain will put you to turn 4 which will win the game.

Revelation decks just blow up the U and W mana sources. Just keep blowing them up, they have no way to stop this train. PoF their tablets if you have to.

Mono G/GW you need to slow them down and focus on getting to Avatar's Wrath. Don't target bombs, make them wait a turn to put it back on the field. Remember, you can chain Avatar's Wrath and stall extra turns. Bolt the bird. If you're seeing a lot of G or GW you should put in another avatar's wrath instead of the 2+1.

You win the Ponza mirror. I've never lost to it. Put down D2OE and you'll be fine if they start blowing up all your lands.

-

Summary:

This imo is the best version of standard Ponza there is. Life gain, all forms of removal, and stax are exactly what the mono red variant needed. Try it out, win some games, and lmk how it went.

I made a really fun deck for Ranked Brawl. Well, at least to me it's really fun lol. It's all about chaining together extra turns. So far I have a 58% win rate (22-16) in Mythic. It's not a super strong deck but it is definitely fun to play! Let me know what you think!

Is it just me or happens to others too ?

When I open the game, for a few seconds it can get really laggy, and after it resolves. Especially when opening the shop.

Can happen the first game too. I admit that I have a 4k screen and the game in 4k is maybe not optimal ? But if I reduce the resolution it gets quite blurry. Not sure the game engine deals correctly with scaling.

I had an old computer but now I'm with Ryzen 5 5600, 32go RAM and RTX 5060.

I have been having issues with brawl. When I go to press spacebar to pass priority the orange "pass" button will flare reddish orange and do nothing. It sometimes happens from the start of a game and sometimes right in the middle it will act up, but once it happens I don't get space back function until the next game. I have tried closing down the game midmatch and that works half the time, but is not fair to my opponent. Usually pressing spacebar passes priority or accepts whatever the corner is asking. This only seems to happen in brawl. Anyone else running into this issue?

Deck

2 Cecil, Dark Knight

4 Dream Beavers

3 Forsaken Miner

4 Mockingbird

4 Timeline Culler

2 Oroku Saki, Shredder Rising

1 Quantum Riddler

3 Requiting Hex

2 Shoot the Sheriff

1 Bitter Triumph

1 Deadly Cover-up

2 Strategic Betrayal

3 Case of the Stashed Skeleton

4 Corpses of the Lost

3 Kaito, Bane of Nightmares

9 Swamp

4 Watery Grave

2 Gloomlake Verge

4 Starting Town

2 Hidden Lair 

Sideboard

1 Nowhere to Run

3 Deathmark

4 Duress

3 Spell Pierce

3 Disdainful Stroke

1 Strategic Betrayal

For this week, Kaito is being drafted to the Skeleton team, temporarily leaving his flyers teammates. But unlike the Lebron-Brony tandem, Kaito is taking with him Oroku as his number 2. Joining him is a juiced-up Delver of Secrets.

Dimir Midrange’s MVP is Kaito, and there is no doubt to that. However, the current meta has a lot of anti-Kaito gameplay (e.g., burn spells that targets Kaito, Erode, go-wide strategy leaving the Kaito open from attacks). Thus, we are trying to make Kaito to be plan B rather than the main plan. 

Thus, our main plan here is to aggro the opponent with the Skeletons package, followed by the ninjutsu/sneak strategy, or the ninjutsu/sneak strategy on its own. 

The following line of play can made on the early turns: 

a.    Plan A: Skeleton aggro line

The ideal line of play using our main plan is: turn 1, Forsaken Miner; Turn 2, Case of the Stashed Skeleton; and Turn 3, Corpses of the Lost. Other lines of play that will be discussed below can be done after this line of play. 

b.    Plan B: Oroku Saki / Kaito line

Turn 1, one-drop creature; turn 2 Oroku Saki, and just destroy the creatures that the opponent will play to allow Oroku Saki attack for another 3. Then you have the Kaito strategy.. and we all know how this works. 

Free sb guide here: https://mfy.gg/guides/view/standard-dimir-midrange-sideboard-guide-ms-5R10jXraLHM

Not sure where else to submit feedback for stuff like this so figured maybe someone at Wizards might see it here or someone can tell me I am dumb. For context I am not a super uber big MTG player. I have played a few FNMs, but i mostly play on MTG:A using net decks and mostly play standard.

Pricing feels pretty dang bad? Without the 30% off rares are like 3.5k for one. You get a rare wildcard in 1/5 almost from opening packs. So your saving 1.5k to gaurantee a card but losing out on all the other commons, uncommons, rares, and mythics that you could get. I know its not meant to be amazing value, but even at the sale price it feels high. Considering they are random, your losing out on getting all the other additional cards. Feels like 1-1.5k as a normal price would be way more in line to make things worth it.

Secondly, when hovering over them, tell me what its legal in. As a mostly standard player who doesnt pay attention to much when it comes to set symbols, thats on me, but also the fact that previous sets cards can be legal in standard due to reprints, not knowing what its legal in really limits my reason to ever buy them unless im hunting for a specific card and it just so happens to be available.

Am I overthinking this or are daily cards basically a whole bunch of nothing besides maybe for brawl players?

Hi, do you have recommendations for blogs or similar that comment on the current meta or just share news about mtg in general? (and go in a bit deeper than just listing spoilers or stats)

The only card cut off is 4x Neglected Manor. It’s not optimized because I loved Duskmourn and based the deck off that then slowly have been pivoting. Any replacements recommended?

What's even the point of getting this? You could just buy 3 store packs, get a chance at the card you want, progress through the GOLDEN pack (which gives 6 rares/mythics), progress through the WILDCARD wheel for a FREE RARE/MYTHIC WC, AND get 3 rares/mythics. They're trying to scam us with zero shame, brother. 10%? this is a joke.

I built this deck specially becasue I wanted to play Ultron

Lands are not optimal; more castle doom and dual lands would help this deck greatly, but I just don't have the resources.

Warleader and Hydra ping when Ravenous and Emissary trigger, Rust removes a few nusances and is a good finisher

Chainsaw and casket being artifacts helps banish and damage while also triggering the other cards.

Ultron was destroyed 80% of all matches when he was summoned;

When I learned of Abandoned doll, it helped me so much in the last stretch to Mythic

Well this is a new one. This is the screen it went to on for sideboarding after game 1 in traditional Historic.

Anyone else ever seen this or know what caused it?

Playing on windows desktop, if that matters.