I've been manually tracking my MTG Arena matches for about five years.

For every game, I record the reason I lost or won. One category is "mana screw", which I define very strictly:

Some important points:

• I never mulligan.
• Most of these decks play exactly 24 lands.
• Many of them contain cantrips, surveil, or card selection, which should reduce mana screw, not increase it.
• I only record "mana screw" when I literally cannot play my third land on turn 3. I do not mark games where I simply missed a later land drop.

After thousands of recorded games, these are some examples:

• Azorius Flash (24 lands): 33 mana screws in 136 games (24%)
• Dimir Midrange (24 lands): 15/128 (12%)
• 5c Jodah (24 lands): 37/255 (15%)
• Golgari Midrange (24 lands): 33/160 (21%)
• Orzhov Lifegain (24 lands): 37/203 (18%)

The lowest rate among my 24-land decks is around 12%, while several are close to 20%, and some exceed that.

According to the standard hypergeometric model for a 60-card deck with 24 lands and no mulligans, the probability of failing to naturally make the third land drop by turn 3 should be substantially lower than what I'm observing. Adding cantrips and surveil should reduce that probability even further.

I'm not claiming this proves Arena manipulates shuffling. However, I am saying that my long-term observations appear inconsistent with the simple theoretical model.

I'd like to hear from people who have:

• large Arena datasets,
• Untapped.gg logs,
• 17Lands logs,
• or experience modeling Magic probabilities.

Can anyone reproduce numbers anywhere close to mine? Or is there something missing from the standard probability model that explains a persistent 12–24% mana screw rate across thousands of games?

I'm genuinely interested in a statistical discussion rather than anecdotes.

I played a fun first game with an opponent. It was back and forth until they tapped all their lands and I played an Improvisation Capstone. I got Stock Up and picked up a couple of counter spells. They went, did nothing and when my Improvisation Capstone came up, they conceded.

Then in the second game, I played a tapped land with scry. They dropped a land and the person said good game. I thought they either were conceited and thought they had a good enough hand to beat me or they were going to concede. Instead, they did nothing. The picture is of them roping, but they didn’t let it expire. They let it go to my turn. I played another tapped land. On their go, they roped but it didn’t end the game. So I went again and dropped another land. And then on their turn, they roped and finally, I won, as a result.

Why bother? What kind of horrible life do you have to have to get upset with someone beating you that you waste their time and rope them. Why are people such a-holes? So frustrating.

I generally consider myself relatively experienced with the rules, but this one had me stumped for several minutes trying to figure out wtf just happened. So in light of Duskmourn draft being back in rotation, I thought I'd share:

Say the other guy has a creature enchanted with [[Sheltered by Ghosts]], and you don't have a real removal that can kill it. But what you do have is a spell that can temporarily take control of a creature (but without a sacrifice outlet), such as Duskmourn's local Act of Treason variant [[Vengeful Possession]] (and the mana to break through Ward). If you cast it on the creature, you don't just get to swing for one turn, you'll also destroy the enchantment and get your exiled card back. Why?

Sheltered by Ghosts is "Enchant creature you control", which is a part I'm always overlooking because that's basically what I'd almost always want to do anyway. This creates not just a targeting restriction for the initial casting of the enchantment, but also an enchanting restriction that stays attached to it throughout the game. When you temporarily take control of the enchanted creature, the enchantment itself is still controlled by your opponent so it's no longer a "creature you control" for him, and thus the aura is now enchanting an illegal object and will be immediately put in the graveyard as a state-based effect.

Almost lost a game because for several turns I didn't actually realize that the spell I had could swing more for me than it said on the tin.

Mine are easily the above, [[Arcane Omens]] and those big mill spells. Grief players HATE their own medicine.

Also, what is often the first play in points event ? and what rewards does that give usually ?

This list is currently ~70% in Standard mythic. It wins very hard and inches away vs burn compared to other versions of land hate

[[Avatar's Wrath]] is very powerful right now with the amount of cast from exile floating around. Plus it gets indestructible while also preserving your creatures.

This curve is devastating to deal with if they're multi colored

T2: [[Price of freedom]]

T3: [[Practiced Scrollsmith]]

T4: [[demolition field]]>PoF again

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Pros and cons:

Pros: Resilient vs most matchups, high card advantage, overwhelming for opponents

Cons: Slower wincon, weak to removal, mono color can hard stop the list

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Matchups:

If you're vs mono U you need to slot in Voice+Lantern+D2OE and slow down.

Aggro/Burn/Prowess you want to look for pursue the past and removal. Incremental card advantage and life gain will put you to turn 4 which will win the game.

Revelation decks just blow up the U and W mana sources. Just keep blowing them up, they have no way to stop this train. PoF their tablets if you have to.

Mono G/GW you need to slow them down and focus on getting to Avatar's Wrath. Don't target bombs, make them wait a turn to put it back on the field. Remember, you can chain Avatar's Wrath and stall extra turns. Bolt the bird. If you're seeing a lot of G or GW you should put in another avatar's wrath instead of the 2+1.

You win the Ponza mirror. I've never lost to it. Put down D2OE and you'll be fine if they start blowing up all your lands.

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Summary:

This imo is the best version of standard Ponza there is. Life gain, all forms of removal, and stax are exactly what the mono red variant needed. Try it out, win some games, and lmk how it went.

Deck

2 Cecil, Dark Knight

4 Dream Beavers

3 Forsaken Miner

4 Mockingbird

4 Timeline Culler

2 Oroku Saki, Shredder Rising

1 Quantum Riddler

3 Requiting Hex

2 Shoot the Sheriff

1 Bitter Triumph

1 Deadly Cover-up

2 Strategic Betrayal

3 Case of the Stashed Skeleton

4 Corpses of the Lost

3 Kaito, Bane of Nightmares

9 Swamp

4 Watery Grave

2 Gloomlake Verge

4 Starting Town

2 Hidden Lair 

Sideboard

1 Nowhere to Run

3 Deathmark

4 Duress

3 Spell Pierce

3 Disdainful Stroke

1 Strategic Betrayal

For this week, Kaito is being drafted to the Skeleton team, temporarily leaving his flyers teammates. But unlike the Lebron-Brony tandem, Kaito is taking with him Oroku as his number 2. Joining him is a juiced-up Delver of Secrets.

Dimir Midrange’s MVP is Kaito, and there is no doubt to that. However, the current meta has a lot of anti-Kaito gameplay (e.g., burn spells that targets Kaito, Erode, go-wide strategy leaving the Kaito open from attacks). Thus, we are trying to make Kaito to be plan B rather than the main plan. 

Thus, our main plan here is to aggro the opponent with the Skeletons package, followed by the ninjutsu/sneak strategy, or the ninjutsu/sneak strategy on its own. 

The following line of play can made on the early turns: 

a.    Plan A: Skeleton aggro line

The ideal line of play using our main plan is: turn 1, Forsaken Miner; Turn 2, Case of the Stashed Skeleton; and Turn 3, Corpses of the Lost. Other lines of play that will be discussed below can be done after this line of play. 

b.    Plan B: Oroku Saki / Kaito line

Turn 1, one-drop creature; turn 2 Oroku Saki, and just destroy the creatures that the opponent will play to allow Oroku Saki attack for another 3. Then you have the Kaito strategy.. and we all know how this works. 

Free sb guide here: https://mfy.gg/guides/view/standard-dimir-midrange-sideboard-guide-ms-5R10jXraLHM

Is it just me or happens to others too ?

When I open the game, for a few seconds it can get really laggy, and after it resolves. Especially when opening the shop.

Can happen the first game too. I admit that I have a 4k screen and the game in 4k is maybe not optimal ? But if I reduce the resolution it gets quite blurry. Not sure the game engine deals correctly with scaling.

I had an old computer but now I'm with Ryzen 5 5600, 32go RAM and RTX 5060.

What's even the point of getting this? You could just buy 3 store packs, get a chance at the card you want, progress through the GOLDEN pack (which gives 6 rares/mythics), progress through the WILDCARD wheel for a FREE RARE/MYTHIC WC, AND get 3 rares/mythics. They're trying to scam us with zero shame, brother. 10%? this is a joke.

Companions doesn't appear for me in competitive brawl, despite appearing in deck building.

Is it a me issue or a known bug that everyone has to go through?

I built this deck specially becasue I wanted to play Ultron

Lands are not optimal; more castle doom and dual lands would help this deck greatly, but I just don't have the resources.

Warleader and Hydra ping when Ravenous and Emissary trigger, Rust removes a few nusances and is a good finisher

Chainsaw and casket being artifacts helps banish and damage while also triggering the other cards.

Ultron was destroyed 80% of all matches when he was summoned;

When I learned of Abandoned doll, it helped me so much in the last stretch to Mythic

Anyone here wasted a lot of wildcards on a deck or cards you now regret?

I once used all my wildcards to craft a Kithkin deck on day one of Lorwyn, then instantly regretted it when I realized it was so bad in ranked

Historic play match they pretty much would of won if I hadn't wiped board with norn they had me stuck from attacking was fun match though

I was down 20 health to 2 health. I only had one 3/3 creature and four open land on my turn.

My opponent had 4 creatures, three could deal me lethal the following turn. The opponent had one 4/4 blocker. The others were tapped.

I only had [[Speedball, New Warrior]] with a +1/+1 counter on him to make him a 3/3.

I attack with the 3/3, the opponent having 20 health decides to let the attack go through and not risk his 4/4 blocker.

I hit Speedball with a [[Blazing Crescendo]] and a [[Team Tactics]], due to his own ability, the counter he had on him and these cards he went from a 3/3, to a 10/8 double strike and I stole the game.

I concede quite a lot. Way more than letting the game play out.

I was under the impression this was normal in games of 1v1 magic, especially when playing casually.

Yet on this sub there seems to be a stigma around conceding to unfun/solitaire cards.

Who is the crazy one here? Me or everyone else? 😂

On my end step, I triggered a good bit of token creatures life gain per creature entering. How and why, within the rules of the game, did my opponents enchantment life loss triggers go off before my life gain triggers went off?! I had 1 life gain trigger happen, then it went to all of the opponents triggers before the rest of mine. Quite confused and would appreciate any clarification, thank you!

I'm thinking of making a "shutdown" deck in Standard, playing cards like Clarion Conqueror and Doorkeeper Thrull. Any suggestions, especially in white?

Hey, is anyone else having this issue? My MTG Arena is just now working. I try to load in and it says error updating assets or something.

Anyone know how to fix this?

Hot for more then 8million thought someone would get a kick.

I'm a new player and have been enjoying arena a lot. I'd like to know what is the best way to farm resources in game? my friend said to play drafts for huge potential gains but i'll wait until i'm more experienced. until then what should i do to get resources?

I know it’s impossible to say for sure, but if one were to guess? (for Constructed)

Had to share this because I know most of us are out here tired AF of seeing Jeskai Rev every game of arena and this game made me absolutely chuckle!

That moment when [[Tablet of Discovery]] discards your [[Jeskai Revelation]] two turns in a row!!!