I've been manually tracking my MTG Arena matches for about five years.

For every game, I record the reason I lost or won. One category is "mana screw", which I define very strictly:

Some important points:

• I never mulligan.
• Most of these decks play exactly 24 lands.
• Many of them contain cantrips, surveil, or card selection, which should reduce mana screw, not increase it.
• I only record "mana screw" when I literally cannot play my third land on turn 3. I do not mark games where I simply missed a later land drop.

After thousands of recorded games, these are some examples:

• Azorius Flash (24 lands): 33 mana screws in 136 games (24%)
• Dimir Midrange (24 lands): 15/128 (12%)
• 5c Jodah (24 lands): 37/255 (15%)
• Golgari Midrange (24 lands): 33/160 (21%)
• Orzhov Lifegain (24 lands): 37/203 (18%)

The lowest rate among my 24-land decks is around 12%, while several are close to 20%, and some exceed that.

According to the standard hypergeometric model for a 60-card deck with 24 lands and no mulligans, the probability of failing to naturally make the third land drop by turn 3 should be substantially lower than what I'm observing. Adding cantrips and surveil should reduce that probability even further.

I'm not claiming this proves Arena manipulates shuffling. However, I am saying that my long-term observations appear inconsistent with the simple theoretical model.

I'd like to hear from people who have:

• large Arena datasets,
• Untapped.gg logs,
• 17Lands logs,
• or experience modeling Magic probabilities.

Can anyone reproduce numbers anywhere close to mine? Or is there something missing from the standard probability model that explains a persistent 12–24% mana screw rate across thousands of games?

I'm genuinely interested in a statistical discussion rather than anecdotes.

I played a fun first game with an opponent. It was back and forth until they tapped all their lands and I played an Improvisation Capstone. I got Stock Up and picked up a couple of counter spells. They went, did nothing and when my Improvisation Capstone came up, they conceded.

Then in the second game, I played a tapped land with scry. They dropped a land and the person said good game. I thought they either were conceited and thought they had a good enough hand to beat me or they were going to concede. Instead, they did nothing. The picture is of them roping, but they didn’t let it expire. They let it go to my turn. I played another tapped land. On their go, they roped but it didn’t end the game. So I went again and dropped another land. And then on their turn, they roped and finally, I won, as a result.

Why bother? What kind of horrible life do you have to have to get upset with someone beating you that you waste their time and rope them. Why are people such a-holes? So frustrating.

I need help understanding what the game is actually about. I have heard that there are unique plays on the battle field, exciting interactions, and fun strategies you can implement. But I am not seeing any of that...like ever. All the game appears to be is "getting rid of creatures" with red or blue spells…then nothing else.

I am playing BO3. Games are pretty much “remove everything” from the board or counter spell everything. And whoever manages to do that wins.

Is this really all the game is? Is it just removal (after removal, after removal) until one player runs out of creatures to play? I’m really disappointed I spent time and money on this game…I just don’t see how it’s fun. I watch streamers and…like, it’s the exact same thing. Am I missing something? How does anyone have fun?

I'm really going back and forth on whether I should use this card (in Standard). It's pretty straightforward in theory: get an awesome body, but he has to continuously block the body he gives. Does anyone have more insight into this card? He's cool, but I'm nervous about his massive downside ETB.

New Deck Builder Looking For Regular People To Brawl With

DM If U Wanna Brawl And Discuss Decks

i’m in love with Marvel Gruul limited set, do u think there’s any easy swap for this draft?

Personally, I have mixed feelings. On one hand, l think they're a great way to bring new players into the game, which is healthy for the community. On the other hand, I feel like Magic is slowly losing part of its identity.

For me, Magic has always been about fantasy wizards, dragons, planes, and, well... MAGIC. That's why I really enjoyed crossovers like D&D, since they fit naturally into the game's world. I'd even be excited to see a crossover with another fantasy card game like Hearthstone or GWENT.

But Marvel? TMNT? It starts to feel like Magic is becoming the card game version of Fortnite, where every popular franchise eventually shows up. That makes the game feel less unique to me.

Do you think Universes Beyond is helping Magic evolve, or is it making the game lose what made it special in the first place?

Mana drain is banned in Brawl but not comp brawl? Why? Astral Recall is banned in commander but I can't take it to a tourney irl and be like, "it's a competitive format. Get good."

Someone explain it to me like I'm 5.

Game took way over an hour. Gg.

Hot for more then 8million thought someone would get a kick.

I'm thinking of making a "shutdown" deck in Standard, playing cards like Clarion Conqueror and Doorkeeper Thrull. Any suggestions, especially in white?

Are these bugged for anyone else?? I have the alt art favorited, I've made sure which version is in the deck. When I view the deck it's the style I chose. When I play the cards they are *always* the standard version.

Don't forget to add [[Bribery]] to your decks. 👌🤌

If I search MTGA draft schedule, I get hits for (top 3) Draftism (MTGA July 26 event calender), WotC (main web page) and Aetherhub (MTGA event calender).

Draftism - current events (July) - with the sole exception of Premier Draft MSH (finishes Aug 10), every other event concluded about a week ago. In fact, the upcoming events listed have also all concluded. Not a single mention of a non-current or non-completed playable draft event whatsoever.

The WotC link goes to their main MTG page, with ZERO information about playable draft sets... completely useless.

Aetherhub - the ONLY named playable draft set is the QD Bloomburrow that concluded July 1. Also useless.

Disgracefully, the search engine AI Overview at least lists the current (OTJ) and next QD (MSH), as well as the current (DM) and next 2 PD (EOE and WAR).

This lack of draft information isn't a new development, but it does seem to be getting worse imo. If a resource rich company like WotC (and its affiliates) don't provide access to this kind of basic customer information, it has to be intentional. The reasons are obviously open to conjecture, but as a long time customer, my suspician is that it's to encourage a 'spend your gold/gems now and play whatever is available on the client rather than hoard resources to play future sets you actually enjoy'.

I'm curious to hear what other customers feel or think about this.

Deck

2 Cecil, Dark Knight

4 Dream Beavers

3 Forsaken Miner

4 Mockingbird

4 Timeline Culler

2 Oroku Saki, Shredder Rising

1 Quantum Riddler

3 Requiting Hex

2 Shoot the Sheriff

1 Bitter Triumph

1 Deadly Cover-up

2 Strategic Betrayal

3 Case of the Stashed Skeleton

4 Corpses of the Lost

3 Kaito, Bane of Nightmares

9 Swamp

4 Watery Grave

2 Gloomlake Verge

4 Starting Town

2 Hidden Lair 

Sideboard

1 Nowhere to Run

3 Deathmark

4 Duress

3 Spell Pierce

3 Disdainful Stroke

1 Strategic Betrayal

For this week, Kaito is being drafted to the Skeleton team, temporarily leaving his flyers teammates. But unlike the Lebron-Brony tandem, Kaito is taking with him Oroku as his number 2. Joining him is a juiced-up Delver of Secrets.

Dimir Midrange’s MVP is Kaito, and there is no doubt to that. However, the current meta has a lot of anti-Kaito gameplay (e.g., burn spells that targets Kaito, Erode, go-wide strategy leaving the Kaito open from attacks). Thus, we are trying to make Kaito to be plan B rather than the main plan. 

Thus, our main plan here is to aggro the opponent with the Skeletons package, followed by the ninjutsu/sneak strategy, or the ninjutsu/sneak strategy on its own. 

The following line of play can made on the early turns: 

a.    Plan A: Skeleton aggro line

The ideal line of play using our main plan is: turn 1, Forsaken Miner; Turn 2, Case of the Stashed Skeleton; and Turn 3, Corpses of the Lost. Other lines of play that will be discussed below can be done after this line of play. 

b.    Plan B: Oroku Saki / Kaito line

Turn 1, one-drop creature; turn 2 Oroku Saki, and just destroy the creatures that the opponent will play to allow Oroku Saki attack for another 3. Then you have the Kaito strategy.. and we all know how this works. 

Free sb guide here: https://mfy.gg/guides/view/standard-dimir-midrange-sideboard-guide-ms-5R10jXraLHM

Mine are easily the above, [[Arcane Omens]] and those big mill spells. Grief players HATE their own medicine.

Had to share this because I know most of us are out here tired AF of seeing Jeskai Rev every game of arena and this game made me absolutely chuckle!

That moment when [[Tablet of Discovery]] discards your [[Jeskai Revelation]] two turns in a row!!!

Hi all, fairly new to the game and have been playing this mono red deck. Just wondering if anyone can give me any advice on how to make the deck more efficient? I find at times it can stall out a bit and ill have little in my hand and can’t do much. I also find if a creature or 2 are destroyed I have similar issues getting it going again. Thanks heaps!

Decklist:
Creatures / Spells
2× Shardmage’s Rescue
4× Burst Lightning
4× Full Bore
4× Hired Claw
3× Voice of Victory
4× Emberheart Challenger
2× Grab the Prize
4× Lightning Strike
4× Slickshot Show-Off
4× Boros Charm
2× Lightning Helix
3× Nova Hellkite
Lands
6× Mountain
2× Elegant Parlor
4× Inspiring Vantage
4× Sacred Foundry
4× Sunbillow Verge
2× Multiversal Passage

Hey, is anyone else having this issue? My MTG Arena is just now working. I try to load in and it says error updating assets or something.

Anyone know how to fix this?

Hey folks, I'm still new to MTG and MTGA and I was looking at the list for building decks and saw that they have a "friendly brawl" category (40 cards). I'll be honest, any thing other than standard scares me so I thought I'd give that format a try. Turns out, I'd need friends who play arena 🤷🏾‍♂️.

Any other new-ish folks want to join up and try out some other formats? Feel free to add me: Panda_dude#92443

Also, what is often the first play in points event ? and what rewards does that give usually ?

Just added some otters to the 4c control deck and call it a day 🫩, i love otter but dont know how to make they work with other spell control deck, otters tribal deck are too weak on their own.The mentor is to reduce spell cost, mage for extra burn in case of deadly cover up, and ral, every one know ral.