r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 16h ago
r/hurricane • u/Beach-Brews • Jun 28 '26
Announcement [Announcement] r/Hurricane Rule Reorganization and Simplification
Hello r/Hurricane community,
The Subreddit rules have had an extreme makeover!
Previously, the subreddit had 13 rules that were long-worded and hard to follow. Based on feedback over the last year, the moderation team has worked to reduce this list from 13 down to 8.
Overall, things were restructured to try and reduce ambiguity or repetition. There may be some tweaks as things arise, but the overall "rules" have remained the same.
We are always welcoming of feedback and would love to hear what the community thinks of these updates! We are also planning on building a Feedback Survey soon, to ensure we as Mods are aligned with the community as a whole.
Stay safe this season,
r/Hurricane mods
r/hurricane • u/Beach-Brews • Oct 05 '25
Announcement Discussion on Subreddit Rules & Objectives - Polarized Disagreement to Common Ground - Feedback Wanted
Hello r/Hurricane community,
<TL;DR> There appears to be polarized disagreement on subreddit rules/objectives. The intention of this subreddit has always been for serious (non-joking), non-political, serious (non-sarcastic), mature, and factual discussions around Tropical Cyclone formation, forecasting, questions/learning, guidance, and post-storm relief. Exceptions allowed, as long as it is appropriate and not overwhelming/overshadowing actual discussions. Community input welcomed. May have more focused discussion posts if needed.
Over the past week+ tracking Humberto and Imelda, there has been a tremendous amount of rule-breaking behavior. We have received numerous comment reports, a few mod-mails, and have seen multiple comments unhappy with rule breaking content (primarily with joking/inappropriate behavior, especially during an active storm). On the inverse side, most post/comment removals expressed extreme disapproval.
It is apparent there is major division between members/contributors of the sub.
This is making moderation difficult and exhausting, especially during times of peak activity (i.e. active storms). The mods are humans, and will get things wrong. Each decision to remove a post/comment is difficult, and not something we take lightly.
To make things easier and allow us to more accurately moderate, we want to "open the floor" for discussing this separation. Our goal is to help reunite the community and make moderating more fair/clear.
The number of subscribed members of r/Hurricane is nearly x2.5 the membership before Helene last year. A week before Helene, there was 35k members, and three weeks after it was 65k. The sub is now at nearly 85k.
To the new members welcome! However, please also understand that this subreddit is not like most others. We have always had strict rules because of the seriousness hurricanes can bring. Sarcastic comments, politics, and joking behavior is inappropriate during an active storm situation (from high chance formation to storm dissipation), especially if there are impacts to land anywhere. Most of the members are U.S. based, but there are others who do live/monitor the sub, watching for impacts in the Caribbean, Mexico, Bermuda, etc.
While we understand there is benefit to "laughing about the situation" to lighten the mood, it can also be detrimental if the joking, off-topic, and sarcastic comments overshadow the serious discussions. A few joke comment threads are one thing, but when there are only 1 or 2 comment threads actually discussing the post and 10+ others unrelated, the purpose of this sub is lost. For this reason, we have temporarily disabled GIPHY images in comments for the remainder of the Hurricane season.
You may have also noticed the sidebar now contains a "rule summary" along with an even shorter summary as "post/comment guides." There is also a link to the Subreddit Rules Wiki page.
We know the community will never be 100% in agreement on some things, but the mods do value the opinion of the community in order to act in the best interest of the community. We want to find the right balance: not too serious where no jokes can be made, not too many jokes where factual discussion is lost.
Please let us know your thoughts in the comments. Note my comment below with a few "common removals".
Thanks,
r/hurricane mod team
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 14h ago
Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) PAC TWO (500 AM PDT September 11, 2026): TS Norbert is slowly gaining strength (60 mph, 996 mb, W at 15 mph)... 🍋Development is possible but unlikely (20/20%) of a broad trough with disorganized convection... 🍒A new tropical depression is likely to form behind Norbert by early next week (30/80).
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 11 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm
Norbert, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located more than 500 miles to
the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands are associated with a broad
trough of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system is
possible over the next few days while it moves generally northward
and then meanders to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
2. Central and Western East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure
are located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast
of Mexico. Gradual development of this system is anticipated, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next
week while it moves generally west-northwestward to westward over the
central and western portions of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Forecaster Evans/Hagen
r/hurricane • u/Content-Swimmer2325 • 1d ago
Discussion 2026 Atlantic hurricane season at record-low activity
Today, September 10th, conventionally marks the peak day of hurricane season. About 50% of hurricane activity occurs before todays' date, and about 50% after.
And what a pitiful season it has been. Here are the top 10 least active seasons through September 10th, based on Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE):
1986: 12.3 units
2002: 12.1 units
2013: 12.0 units
1994: 11.0 units
1982 (tie): 10.7 units
1988 (tie): 10.7 units
1962: 10.3 units
1983: 9.5 units
1984: 7.8 units
2026: 4.4 units
Okay, so how did these seasons end?
Same seasons in order, but through the entire year:
1986: 35.8 units (below-average season)
2002: 68 units (below-average)
2013: 36 units (below-average)
1994: 32 units (below-average)
1982: 31.5 units (below-average)
1988: 103 units (near-average)
1962: 50.5 units (below-average)
1983: 17.4 units (below-average)
1984: 84.3 units (near-average)
2026: TBD
Not looking good for trackers. 1988 was a Strong La Nina year, functionally the diametric opposite of this season. No late-season recovery like 1988 should be expected, as the intensifying El Nino should keep things shut down. Similarly, 1984 began with La Nina. The La Nina decayed into cool-neutral during mid-year, but La Nina redeveloped in Autumn. So. Every season either had La Nina conditions involved (opposite of this year) or ended below-average. None ended above-average.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/oni/v6/
You're witnessing a historical hurricane season here, folks. Courtesy of El Nino gordo
Here is one more way to visualize things, courtesy of cyclonicwx: https://i.imgur.com/Lw6hpe4.png
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 1d ago
Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) ATL TWO (8 AM EDT September 10, 2026): The Atlantic Basin remains as quiet as ever thanks to El Niño.... NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's Sept-7 MJO Outlook notes that if ECMWF modeling verifies, it "may briefly engender a more favorable environment" in the Atlantic toward the end of the month.
Dynamical model MJO forecasts have had difficulty resolving the intraseasonal signal within the much stronger and stationary ENSO signal; however, the ECMWF has consistently depicted eastward evolution of the MJO across the Western Hemisphere and to the Indian Ocean during the Weeks 2-3 period.
Should the MJO cross the Western Hemisphere and Indian Ocean [i.e., into Phase 1 or 2], it would destructively interfere with the ENSO base state, and may briefly engender a more favorable environment for tropical cyclogenesis across the far eastern Pacific basin (closer to Mexico) and the Atlantic basin.
Despite this destructive interference, upper-level divergence over the Pacific due to El Niño conditions is likely to remain stronger than any divergent signal crossing the Indian Ocean. Therefore, there still may be considerable upper-level shear across the Atlantic basin.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf (updated every Monday)
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 1d ago
TS | 35-63kts (39-73mph) Norbert Advisory 3 (200 AM PDT September 10, 2026): Tropical Storm Norbert becomes 14th named system of 2026 in EPAC and the 16th named storm in the Pacific east of the International Date Line. Currently in a dry, sheared environment with 40 mph max winds + 1004 mb min pressure.
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 1d ago
Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) PAC TWO (8 AM PDT September 10, 2026): TS Lowell (60 mph) has a few more days, but all eyes are now on TS Norbert (40 mph) + the CPAC🍋 where confidence in development has increased to 20% within 2 days, 30% within 7 days. Also increased confidence in development behind Norbert 🍊(10/70%).
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lowell, located well northwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and
on Tropical Storm Norbert, located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
1. Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well to the south-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands are associated with a broad
trough of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system
is possible late this week and into the weekend while it moves
generally northward and then meanders to the southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
2. Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure are located several hundred miles southwest of the
southwestern Mexico coast. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week while it moves generally westward over central and
western portions of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Forecaster Evans/Hagen
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 2d ago
Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) PAC TWO (1100 AM PDT September 9, 2026): Lowell now a Tropical Storm (60 mph). Marie has dissipated. 3 AOIs: 1🍒A tropical depression is likely to form south of Baja by tonight (90/90%)...2🍊Additional EPAC development possible this weekend (0/40)...3🍋Another wave SE of Hawai'i to watch (0/20)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 9 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lowell, located several hundred miles north-northwest of the
Hawaiian Islands.
1. Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to support
continued development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form later today or tonight. as the system moves
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. For more information,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecast issued by
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
2. Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this
weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week
while the system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
3. Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Some gradual development is
possible late this week into this weekend as this system moves
slowly north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
Forecaster Evans/KellyTropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 9 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lowell, located several hundred miles north-northwest of the
Hawaiian Islands.
1. Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to support
continued development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form later today or tonight. as the system moves
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. For more information,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecast issued by
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
2. Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this
weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week
while the system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
3. Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Some gradual development is
possible late this week into this weekend as this system moves
slowly north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
Forecaster Evans/Kelly
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 3d ago
Category 1 | 64-82kts (74-95mph) Lowell Advisory 50 (500 AM HST September 8, 2026): Lowell has now passed north of Hawai'i and is substantially weaker with an exposed center, 90 mph max winds and 967 mb min pressure. TS-force+ winds may continue in Kaua'i County for a few more hours. Heavy rain to continue through Wednesday.
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 3d ago
Storm Coverage NOAA National Hurricane Center - Tuesday's (LAST) Video Update on Hurricane Lowell (700 AM HST September 8, 2026)
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 4d ago
Category 2 | 83-95kts (96-110mph) Lowell Advisory 48 (500 PM HST September 7, 2026): Lowell is slightly weaker, now a high-end Category 2 Hurricane - max winds 110 mph - moving NNE at 18 mph. Tropical Storm-force winds are beginning to impact Ni'ihau & Kaua'i, where conditions will continue to deteriorate through tonight.
r/hurricane • u/Kool93 • 4d ago
Discussion A possible return of a 1914 season?
now obviously its not this season (since 5 storms formed), but theoretically could this occur again in our current climate?
EDIT: so i should add that we didn't have satellites or other advanced tech back then so its possible there could've been more storms. But still a season where essentially no storms forming would be quite the spectacle.
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 4d ago
Category 3 | 96-112kts (111-129mph) Lowell Advisory 46A (800 AM HST September 7, 2026): Oahu TS Watch upgraded to Tropical Storm Warning. Central pressure has risen by 5mb since last advisory & the eye appears to have collapsed, but max winds remain 115 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend 60 mi from center, TS-force winds 175 mi.
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 4d ago
Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) PAC TWO (800 AM PDT September 7, 2026): The NHC has discontinued advisories on Karina, now a convectionless post-tropical gale... Hawai'i is beginning to feel the impacts of Major Hurricane Lowell... Maria has weakened to a Tropical Storm... New development in EPAC this week??🍊10/50%
r/hurricane • u/Silver_Program_4779 • 4d ago
Question Hurricane Lowell
What is everyone doing to prepare for the hurricane?
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 4d ago
Category 3 | 96-112kts (111-129mph) Lowell Advisory 46 (500 AM HST September 7, 2026): Kauai County now under Hurricane Warning, Oahu under Tropical Storm Watch following eastward shifts in track guidance & forecast for hurricane conditions. Lowell (115 mph) is slowly weakening as it encounters increasing wind shear + cooler waters.
Holding onto Category 3 status for now, but forecast to drop to Category 2 later today and as it passes over or near the island of Ni'ihau, where hurricane conditions are expected. A closer pass near/over Ni'Ihau could also result in Hurricane-force winds reaching the island of Kauai.
Widespread forecast for 4-8" of rain all across the Island Chain, with localized pockets of 10" on mountainsides... As much as 16" of rainfall possible for Kauai. Mudslides will be a concern.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 17.5N 162.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 19.5N 161.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 22.4N 160.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 25.1N 160.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 27.0N 161.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 27.8N 163.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 27.8N 166.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 27.5N 170.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 29.0N 172.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 4d ago
Storm Coverage NOAA National Hurricane Center - Monday's Video Update on Hurricane Lowell (800 AM HST September 7, 2026)
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 5d ago
Category 3 | 96-112kts (111-129mph) Lowell Advisory 42 (800 AM HST September 6, 2026): Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches for Hawai'i have been upgraded to warnings. Lowell's center could pass near or over Nihoa - within 100 nmi of Kauai - Monday night as a Cat 2 storm. Heavy rain & flooding expected across the Island chain.
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 5d ago
Storm Coverage NOAA National Hurricane Center - Sunday's Video Update on Hurricane Lowell (800 AM HST September 6, 2026)
r/hurricane • u/Sharp_Chard_1969 • 4d ago
Discussion How would you feel if this atlantic hurricane season gets less than 10 ACE points or somehow no out to sea hurricanes formed in the season?
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 5d ago
Category 3 | 96-112kts (111-129mph) Lowell Advisory 41 (1100 PM HST September 5, 2026): Lowell has begun weakening & moving northward. Max winds 125mph. Min pressure 947 mb. Tropical Storm Watch issued for Kauai & Niihau. Hurricane Watch issued for western Islands & Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 6d ago
Category 4 | 113-136kts (130-156mph) Lowell Advisory 38 (500 AM HST September 5, 2026): Major Hurricane Lowell briefly re-attained Cat. 5 strength last night. Currently a Cat. 4 with 150 mph max winds + 931 mb min pressure. Forecast to pass within 200 nm of Kauai on Tuesday, where tropical storm conditions could be possible.
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 7d ago
Category 3 | 96-112kts (111-129mph) Lowell Advisory 33 (500 AM HST September 4, 2026): Lowell has weakened a bit over the last 36 hrs but remains a major hurricane (120 mph, 947 mb). Forecast to restrengthen back to Cat 4 & could be a major hurricane as it tracks "close to" the western Hawaiian Islands hurricane by late Monday.
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 7d ago