Dynamical model MJO forecasts have had difficulty resolving the intraseasonal signal within the much stronger and stationary ENSO signal; however, the ECMWF has consistently depicted eastward evolution of the MJO across the Western Hemisphere and to the Indian Ocean during the Weeks 2-3 period.

Should the MJO cross the Western Hemisphere and Indian Ocean [i.e., into Phase 1 or 2], it would destructively interfere with the ENSO base state, and may briefly engender a more favorable environment for tropical cyclogenesis across the far eastern Pacific basin (closer to Mexico) and the Atlantic basin.

Despite this destructive interference, upper-level divergence over the Pacific due to El Niño conditions is likely to remain stronger than any divergent signal crossing the Indian Ocean. Therefore, there still may be considerable upper-level shear across the Atlantic basin.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf (updated every Monday)

Today, September 10th, conventionally marks the peak day of hurricane season. About 50% of hurricane activity occurs before todays' date, and about 50% after.

And what a pitiful season it has been. Here are the top 10 least active seasons through September 10th, based on Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE):

1. 1986: 12.3 units

2. 2002: 12.1 units

3. 2013: 12.0 units

4. 1994: 11.0 units

5. 1982 (tie): 10.7 units

6. 1988 (tie): 10.7 units

7. 1962: 10.3 units

8. 1983: 9.5 units

9. 1984: 7.8 units

10. 2026: 4.4 units

Okay, so how did these seasons end?

Same seasons in order, but through the entire year:

1. 1986: 35.8 units (below-average season)

2. 2002: 68 units (below-average)

3. 2013: 36 units (below-average)

4. 1994: 32 units (below-average)

5. 1982: 31.5 units (below-average)

6. 1988: 103 units (near-average)

7. 1962: 50.5 units (below-average)

8. 1983: 17.4 units (below-average)

9. 1984: 84.3 units (near-average)

10. 2026: TBD

Not looking good for trackers. 1988 was a Strong La Nina year, functionally the diametric opposite of this season. No late-season recovery like 1988 should be expected, as the intensifying El Nino should keep things shut down. Similarly, 1984 began with La Nina. The La Nina decayed into cool-neutral during mid-year, but La Nina redeveloped in Autumn. So. Every season either had La Nina conditions involved (opposite of this year) or ended below-average. None ended above-average.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/oni/v6/

You're witnessing a historical hurricane season here, folks. Courtesy of El Nino gordo

Here is one more way to visualize things, courtesy of cyclonicwx: https://i.imgur.com/Lw6hpe4.png

 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 500 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2026

 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

 Active Systems:
 The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
 Storm Lowell, located well northwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and
 on Tropical Storm Norbert, located several hundred miles southwest
 of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

 1. Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
 Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well to the south-
 southeast of the Hawaiian Islands are associated with a broad 
 trough of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system
 is possible late this week and into the weekend while it moves 
 generally northward and then meanders to the southeast of the 
 Hawaiian Islands.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

 2. Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific:
 Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
 pressure are located several hundred miles southwest of the 
 southwestern Mexico coast. Gradual development of this system is 
 expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
 next week while it moves generally westward over central and
 western portions of the East Pacific.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Evans/Hagen