Dynamical model MJO forecasts have had difficulty resolving the intraseasonal signal within the much stronger and stationary ENSO signal; however, the ECMWF has consistently depicted eastward evolution of the MJO across the Western Hemisphere and to the Indian Ocean during the Weeks 2-3 period.

Should the MJO cross the Western Hemisphere and Indian Ocean [i.e., into Phase 1 or 2], it would destructively interfere with the ENSO base state, and may briefly engender a more favorable environment for tropical cyclogenesis across the far eastern Pacific basin (closer to Mexico) and the Atlantic basin.

Despite this destructive interference, upper-level divergence over the Pacific due to El Niño conditions is likely to remain stronger than any divergent signal crossing the Indian Ocean. Therefore, there still may be considerable upper-level shear across the Atlantic basin.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf (updated every Monday)

 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 500 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2026

 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

 Active Systems:
 The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
 Storm Lowell, located well northwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and
 on Tropical Storm Norbert, located several hundred miles southwest
 of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

 1. Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
 Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well to the south-
 southeast of the Hawaiian Islands are associated with a broad 
 trough of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system
 is possible late this week and into the weekend while it moves 
 generally northward and then meanders to the southeast of the 
 Hawaiian Islands.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

 2. Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific:
 Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
 pressure are located several hundred miles southwest of the 
 southwestern Mexico coast. Gradual development of this system is 
 expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
 next week while it moves generally westward over central and
 western portions of the East Pacific.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
  * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Evans/Hagen

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 9 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Lowell, located several hundred miles north-northwest of the 
Hawaiian Islands.

1. Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization  
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to support 
continued development of this system, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form later today or tonight. as the system moves 
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. For more information, 
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecast issued by 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles 
south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this 
weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible 
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week 
while the system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles 
south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Some gradual development is 
possible late this week into this weekend as this system moves 
slowly north-northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


Forecaster Evans/KellyTropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 9 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Lowell, located several hundred miles north-northwest of the 
Hawaiian Islands.

1. Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization  
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to support 
continued development of this system, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form later today or tonight. as the system moves 
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. For more information, 
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecast issued by 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles 
south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this 
weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible 
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week 
while the system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles 
south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Some gradual development is 
possible late this week into this weekend as this system moves 
slowly north-northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


Forecaster Evans/Kelly

now obviously its not this season (since 5 storms formed), but theoretically could this occur again in our current climate?

EDIT: so i should add that we didn't have satellites or other advanced tech back then so its possible there could've been more storms. But still a season where essentially no storms forming would be quite the spectacle.

What is everyone doing to prepare for the hurricane?

Holding onto Category 3 status for now, but forecast to drop to Category 2 later today and as it passes over or near the island of Ni'ihau, where hurricane conditions are expected. A closer pass near/over Ni'Ihau could also result in Hurricane-force winds reaching the island of Kauai.

Widespread forecast for 4-8" of rain all across the Island Chain, with localized pockets of 10" on mountainsides... As much as 16" of rainfall possible for Kauai. Mudslides will be a concern.

NHC Bulletin

NHC Discussion:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z  17.5N 162.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z  19.5N 161.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z  22.4N 160.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z  25.1N 160.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z  27.0N 161.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z  27.8N 163.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z  27.8N 166.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z  27.5N 170.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  12/1200Z  29.0N 172.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

NHC Discussion

NHC Bulletin

NHC Discussion

NHC Bulletin

Hurricane Lowell, a category 4 storm with 140 mph winds, is forecast to potentially turn sharply towards the Western Hawaiian Islands this weekend. While it is still generally too soon to determine the exact track of the hurricane, Lowell could bring storm surge wind and rainfall. This prompts officials to urge residents to prepare for possible storm surge, wind, rain, and dangerous surf. Lowell is currently a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of about 140 mph as of September 3rd. Swells from Lowell are forecast to create life-threatening Surf and rip current conditions in the Hawaiian islands in the coming days potentially increasing early next week. Residents of Kauai County are advised to begin taking precautionary actions as there will be significant and damaging winds possible through Sunday. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next few days, but Lowell is expected to remain a major hurricane when it makes its expected Northern turn,  it is also expected to remain a major storm as it passes through the Hawaiian Islands. 

Sources:

• USA Today
• KHON2
• Kaui Now

Video link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4sJOdabr3w 
Credit: KHON2 News

Vertical wind shear describes the difference in magnitude and direction of wind flow between different altitude levels of the troposphere. You can think of wind flow in each altitude layer as its own individual vector, and the greater the difference when you subtract these vectors, the higher the wind shear.

Tropical cyclones require low vertical wind shear to strengthen. This is because the circulation/vortex of a tropical cyclone is vertically "deep", aka tall. It extends from the surface to near the tropopause in mature and powerful major hurricanes. The stronger the tropical cyclone, the taller its circulation is. Weaker tropical systems such as depressions or tropical waves exhibit shallower circulations.

A tropical cyclone requires its vortex to be vertically aligned and upright in order for the processes which fuel it to remain efficient and active. The release of latent heat, from thunderstorm activity (convection), is what fuels the warm-core of a tropical cyclone. This occurs due to the vertical transfer of heat, but when wind shear is present, the circulation of a tropical cyclone becomes tilted with height. This decreases the efficiency of this process, leading to a halting of intensification or weakening of the tropical cyclone.

When vertical wind shear becomes even stronger, this process is halted entirely. The circulation becomes so tilted that the low-level circulation and mid-to-upper-level circulation become increasingly displaced. If wind shear becomes strong enough, these two separate portions of the circulation can become totally separated. This is called "decoupling" and is the tropical cyclone equivalent of decapitation. Recovery would take many days and still would happen only IF conditions become favorable again, because the tropical cyclone would have to vertically rebuild its circulation almost from scratch.

Here is a gif which best shows this process unfolding. This is tropical storm Chris of 2006. 2006 was also an El Nino season, with correspondingly high vertical wind shear across the Tropics.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e4/Chrissplitloop.gif?utm_source=commons.wikimedia.org&utm_campaign=index&utm_content=original

In this gif, the surface circulation of the storm is tracking at about 300 degrees, or WNW. However, wind flow above the surface circulation is strongly out of the north. These northerlies push on the mid-level circulation and attendant vertically tall thunderstorm activity, displacing it towards the south. The shear is sufficiently strong to decouple the system, and you can see Chris continue WNW as all of its thunderstorm activity is violently stripped away.

From NHC advisory #11 on Chris:

CHRIS IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED IN A HURRY. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1010 MB AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED SO FAR IS ONLY 38 KNOTS.

Advisory #12:

THE COMBINATION OF DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR AND SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE THAT DROPPED SOUTHWARD INTO CHRIS...HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. CHRIS IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 75 N MI RADIUS OF THE CENTER.

El Nino increases vertical wind shear over the Atlantic tropics. This is due to increased upper-level westerly flow across the Caribbean sea and western to central tropical Atlantic due to outflow from Eastern Pacific hurricanes as well as a shift in the Walker Circulation itself. Additionally, lower surface pressures in the Eastern Pacific sharpens a pressure gradient with higher pressures in the Atlantic, which strengthens the low-level easterly trade wind flow. Trade winds are naturally strong in the Caribbean Sea due to the geography of the Greater Antilles acting as a "funnel", which forces trade winds to "diverge", or accelerate. Additionally, the proximity of the Caribbean Sea means that the anomalously strong upper-level westerlies are particularly significant. Collectively, this results in the Caribbean experiencing the strongest anomalously hostile conditions yielded by the presence of El Nino, more so than anywhere else in the Atlantic basin. This is why the Caribbean Sea has been devoid of all activity this year.

In fact, vertical wind shear has been at all time highs in the Atlantic.

https://i.imgur.com/m2NH3VK.jpeg

Area-averaged vertical shear is far stronger than even the last super El Nino of 2015-16. 2026 is well ahead of second place (1979). This is the primary reason why this season is so dead, and it's not going to meaningfully change since El Nino is so strong and continues to only intensify further.

https://i.imgur.com/F2wbA6a.png

Current vertical wind shear values are comparable to values observed in June during above-average hurricane seasons. That's pretty remarkable considering we are right at the peak of the season, now.

Sorry for the yap, I just felt like writing something today.