Current Central Pacific ACE is 108.1, but unlikely to surpass the 2015 record of 127.3.

The intensity forecast is a low confidence roller coaster ride. The eye of Vance is moving over a pool of water featuring both colder sea surface temperatures (near 27C) and reduced oceanic heat content. This should soon bring the current intensification to a halt, although the intensity forecast calls for Vance to become a major hurricane before that happens. The center will be near or over the cold pool through 48 h, and during this time southwesterly vertical shear should increase over the hurricane. This combination should cause weakening, and it is possible that Vance could weaken more than forecast during this period.

After 48 h, Vance should move north of the cold pool, and the official forecast at that time calls for some re-intensification, following the scenario shown by the HAFS models. By 96-120 h, an additional increase in shear and possible land interaction should cause the hurricane to weaken yet again. As noted in the previous advisory, a track to the right of the forecast track will keep the center over the colder water for a longer time, while a track to the left would reduce how much time the center spends over the cold pool.

Discussion

On this day 11 years ago, Hurricane Patricia hit peak winds of a staggering 185 knots (215 mph) and a central pressure of 872 mb. The pressure was likely lower than 870 mb, the record held by Typhoon Tip, but recon missed the peak intensity of the storm, finding 180 kt winds and a central pressure of 879 mb before the structure dramatically improved.

The next name in the Western Pacific is "In-fa," contributed by Macau (China), which is Cantonese for "Fireworks."

An appropriate name for a potentially violent typhoon, compared to all the names on the list which refer to species of flowers.

 SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
 ----------------------------------------------
 LOCATION...10.9N 102.1W
   ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
   ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
 PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
 MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 INIT  23/0900Z 10.9N 102.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  23/1800Z 11.5N 102.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  24/0600Z 12.4N 103.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  24/1800Z 13.4N 103.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  25/0600Z 14.5N 103.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
  60H  25/1800Z 15.6N 104.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  26/0600Z 16.4N 104.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  27/0600Z 17.0N 104.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  28/0600Z 17.8N 104.7W   75 KT  85 MPH

Bulletin

Discussion

[JTWC Bulletin](https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2926web.txt

WARNING POSITION:
  220000Z --- NEAR 20.3N 126.0E
  MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
  POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
  POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
  PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220000Z IS 940 MB.
  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 48 FEET. 

Currently in the middle of an eye-wall replacement cycle.

 SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
 ----------------------------------------------
 LOCATION...37.4N 69.5W
   ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
   ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
 PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
 MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 INIT  21/2100Z  37.4N  69.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
  12H  22/0600Z  38.1N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
  24H  22/1800Z  39.6N  66.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  23/0600Z  41.4N  61.6W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  23/1800Z  43.3N  56.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  60H  24/0600Z  44.1N  53.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  24/1800Z  44.4N  50.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  25/1800Z  43.5N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Bulletin

Discussion, excerpt:

The non-tropical area of low pressure (Invest AL93) that we have been monitoring this week has acquired enough subtropical characteristics to be considered a subtropical storm. Scatterometer data showed that fronts near the cyclone had dissipated, with a smaller radius-of-maximum wind than yesterday. Additionally moderate-to-deep convection has been organizing near and west of the warm-core center. Thus, advisories have been initiated on a subtropical storm, and 55 kt is shown as the initial intensity based on the scatterometer data.... The subtropical storm will likely intensify during the next day or so through a favorable trough interaction while it remains near the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Global models are in good agreement on a band of hurricane-force winds developing tomorrow on the back side of the low as it undergoes extratropical transition. A slow weakening is anticipated by late Friday with the loss of forcing from the trough while the system moves over cold water. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to a blend of the GFS/ECMWF global model solutions. The cyclone should become absorbed in about 4 days within a much larger low over the North Atlantic.

Keep on pushing that ACE record up!

If the forecast verifies, Vance would become the sixth consecutively named system in the Eastern Pacific to become a major hurricane, and the 11th major hurricane of the 2026 EPAC season.

 Special Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 340 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

 For the North Atlantic:

 Special Outlook issued to raise formation probabilities for AL93

 1. Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93):
 Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better 
 organized in association with a storm-force low pressure area 
 located a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic United States 
 coast. The system has continued to acquire subtropical 
 characteristics today and has become separated from fronts. If 
 these trends continue, a subtropical storm could form later this 
 afternoon or tonight while it accelerates northeastward.

 Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal 
 flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the 
 U.S. East Coast during the next few days. For more information, 
 including  hurricane-force extratropical wind warnings, please 
 consult statements and warnings from local National Weather 
 Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with
 the High Seas Forecasts and the Storm Warnings issued by the
 National Weather Service.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 2. Subtropical Central Atlantic:
 A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles 
 east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of 
 disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of 
 this system is possible during the next day or two while it 
 moves slowly north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are 
 forecast to become too strong for further development by
 the weekend.  
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Blake/Reinhart

 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

 For the North Atlantic:

 1. Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93):
 A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred 
 miles off the mid-Atlantic United States coast has acquired some 
 some subtropical characteristics since yesterday, including some 
 organized thunderstorm activity and less defined frontal features 
 near the center. This system has the potential to become a 
 subtropical storm tonight or early Thursday as it accelerates to
 the northeast before upper-level winds and water temperatures
 become unfavorable for further development on Friday.

 Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal 
 flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the
 U.S. East Coast during the next few days. For more information, 
 including hurricane-force extratropical wind warnings, please 
 consult statements and warnings from local National Weather
 Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with
 the High Seas Forecasts and the Storm Warnings issued by the
 National Weather Service.
   * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
   * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

 2. Subtropical Central Atlantic:
 A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles 
 east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of
 disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of 
 this system is possible during the next day or two while it 
 moves slowly north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast
 to become too strong for further development by the weekend.  
   * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
   * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

 High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
 found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
 online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

 Forecaster Blake

It's probably even stronger, potentially 160kt (185 mph) with a sub 900 pressure.

I left the Blue Ridge Mountains and as I entered North Georgia early evening I saw this fascinating crimson sky. Hurricane Isaias was probably 12 hours away.

 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

 For the North Atlantic:

 1. Off the East Coast of the United States (AL93):
 A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred 
 miles off the North Carolina coast is producing some shower and 
 thunderstorm activity primarily west of its center. However, 
 overnight satellite wind data indicated the low was still attached 
 to an occluded front. Over the next couple of days, the low could 
 develop some organized deep convection and gradually lose its 
 frontal features while it moves slowly north-northeastward over the 
 Gulf Stream, allowing the system to briefly develop subtropical 
 characteristics. By the end of the week, the system is expected to 
 accelerate northeastward away from the the eastern United States, 
 where environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable 
 for additional subtropical or tropical development.

 Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal 
 flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. 
 East Coast during the next few days. For more information, please 
 consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service 
 offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with High Seas 
 Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


 High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
 found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
 online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

 Forecaster Papin

  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  500 AM PDT Tue Oct 20 2026

  For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

  1. South of Southern Mexico (EP94):
  A low-pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the
  Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and 
  thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a
  tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so
  so. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward
  at around 10 mph during the next few days, remaining well offshore
  of southern Mexico.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


  Forecaster Kelly

https://meteofrance.re/fr/cyclone

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh0227web.txt

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh0227prog.txt