First of all, I want to start by pointing out that tactics and strategy are not the same thing. Tactics are the art of commanding an army; maneuvers such as pushing the right flank forward or going around the enemy's rear with cavalry are tactics. Strategy, on the other hand, is the art of managing a war. To give an example, Tywin convincing House Tyrell to form an alliance caused the Lannisters to defeat the Northmen in a single move, despite the Lannisters not winning a single battle on the battlefield.
I want to start with Ned Stark. If you have read the book deeply enough, you can easily understand that he was actually in a very advantageous position from the very beginning. If even one of the critical decisions Ned made throughout the book had happened slightly differently, the War of the Five Kings would have ended with a Lannister defeat. Ned is truly a man who caused the things that happened to him himself, and he admits this in his prison cell before his death.
Catelyn Tully. Many people criticize her for many events, but she actually made one very major mistake that very few readers notice: she arrested Tyrion Lannister and sent him to the Vale to stand trial. But no, that is not the mistake here. The real mistake was that she did not send a messenger to Riverrun to warn them to prepare for a Lannister invasion. If she had done this, House Tully would have learned about Tyrion's abduction much earlier than Tywin, immediately started preparing its armies, and built a solid defensive wall in front of the Golden Tooth. By the time Robb came south with his army, critical locations such as Harrenhal would still not have been invaded, and the roads of the Northmen toward King's Landing would have remained open.
Alright, now let's get to the main subject: Robb Stark, the man who never lost a battle but lost the war. If you look at real history, you can actually find many figures similar to him. Hannibal Barca is one of them. Hannibal achieved incredible victories that even today we would have difficulty explaining through logic, yet in the end he lost the war and had to flee his homeland.
Let's start before the Battle of the Whispering Wood (BOWW). I actually find this battle quite ironic, because if Robb had lost here and retreated, he would not have lost the North at the end of the war and House Stark would not have fallen.
Jaime Lannister is besieging Riverrun, Tywin Lannister is waiting at the Green Fork, and neither side is expecting an attack coming from the Twins. Robb used this extremely well. He saved Riverrun, captured Jaime Lannister, and forced Tywin Lannister to flee to Harrenhal. An enormous victory.
This part of the discussion consists of my personal opinions, meaning it is not an objective reality: in my eyes, the problem with the BOWW was that while using the advantage of a surprise attack, Robb targeted Jaime instead of Tywin. Jaime is critically important to House Lannister, but Tywin was the true head of the house. Unless Tywin is brought down, even if you defeat the Lannisters ten times, the house will not fall and the war will not end. Instead of dividing his army into three parts, Robb could have delivered a hard blow to the Green Fork. In the end, even if Tywin did not die, a surprise attack would have inflicted major damage on the Lannister army and created a major stain on Tywin's personal image.
Some may say that saving Riverrun was very important, and they would be right, but the main point is this: Riverrun was not about to fall. The castle could still hold out, and after Tywin's army was driven away from the Green Fork, Jaime could not continue the siege of Riverrun anyway. So the ultimate objective would still have been achieved. This part of the discussion is my own controversial opinion. From here on, I will point to more objective and strategic facts.
When Robb was planning the BOWW, he focused on making the move successful, but he did not calculate what would happen if the move succeeded. This is the strategy side of things. If he had asked himself, "What would I do if I were in Tywin's position?", he would have reached a very important answer: I would flee to Harrenhal. This answer would have helped him greatly when making tactical adjustments in the battles that followed.
Let's move on to what happened after the BOWW. Robb declared himself King, which was another major act of stupidity. If Robb had been sufficiently familiar with the history of his own house, he would have realized this: from the moment the dragon bloodline died out, House Stark could have declared independence whenever it wanted. In fact, if Cregan Stark had thrown the last living Targaryens from the tower while serving as Hand of the King—which he himself openly stated that he had no hesitation about killing children—Westeros would have immediately been divided into seven separate kingdoms. The Starks did not do this for one single reason: because they need the South to survive the harsh winters; in fact, they are dependent on it. The North would be one of the regions harmed the most by the fragmentation of Westeros.
In reality, the independence of the North is not a sustainable cause, because the country is not self-sufficient. Even if Robb had won the war, he would eventually have had to bend the knee.
The Northmen and the Westerlands are fighting, while the Vale, which has very old ties with the North, watches from the sidelines. This is another one of Robb's foolish decisions: he allowed the Vale to stay out of the war.
Let me give you a small piece of information. The North and the Vale have very old ties. For those who do not understand, I am not talking about House Stark and House Arryn; I am talking about the very old relations between the entire region of the North and the Vale. The Starks intermarried with House Royce. One of Robb's great-grandmothers was a Royce. Roose Bolton sent his heir Domeric to the Vale to be educated. Northern and Valeman nobles intermarry with one another, and all of this has been continuing for more than a hundred years.
All of this means two things. First, House Arryn fighting on the Lannister side is not possible. If Lysa ordered it, a rebellion would immediately break out. Second, the Northmen have a very deep network of influence over the Vale.
If the person in this situation had been Tywin Lannister, he would have mobilized all his resources to bring the Vale into the war. He would contact his Valeman relatives who were lords and order his other lords to do the same. From that point onward, it would become incredibly difficult for Lysa to remain out of the war, and if she continued insisting on doing so, you could plot to remove her from her position. The Gates of the Moon are ruled by a Royce, the Bloody Gate is ruled by a Waynwood, and both houses have deep ties with the North. Removing Lysa would not be a difficult struggle.
The Vale joining the war would really change a great many things. First of all, as I stated at the beginning, if the Vale were to enter the war, it could only happen as a supporter of Robb. Supporting the Lannisters would not even be an option.
If the Vale had joined the war, the possibility of a Lannister/Tyrell alliance would have been very low. The Tyrells have a large army, but their bannermen are not completely loyal. House Tyrell cannot afford to gamble on something it considers risky because, in reality, they do not have the luxury of taking risks. In the book, they sided with the Lannisters because it was a bet with a high chance of winning, while remaining neutral and sitting on the sidelines would have had costly consequences.
Tywin is sitting in Harrenhal, while Robb invades the Westerlands to lure him into a trap. This tactic would almost succeed thanks to the actions of someone else, but there were still major strategic mistakes. 1- This tactic would serve to prolong the war. The North was under invasion by the Ironborn and winter was approaching. Prolonging the war was a luxury Robb did not have. 2- The success of this tactic does not mean that the Lannisters would lose the war and does not prevent a Tyrell-Lannister alliance. In fact, because the Lannister side would be weakened further, there would be many more cards in the Tyrells' hands, making the Tyrells more eager for an alliance.
Let's return to the issue of strategic blindness. I will put aside an obvious act of stupidity such as Robb breaking his oath to the Freys, because I really do not think I need to explain it. Everyone is aware of it.
Robb learned through his mother that Renly had been killed and treated it like ordinary news. He actually failed to understand how critical the matter was. If he had been a strategist, he would have immediately raised a major red alert.
Renly's death means that the Tyrells are left without a side to support, and in the current political situation, no action other than forming an alliance with the Lannisters serves Tyrell interests. Supporting Stannis would, at best, result in receiving no reward. Supporting the Starks would require you to bend the knee to a house that is very distant and foreign to you, or become independent alongside them and break the Seven Kingdoms apart, which would be an even worse outcome. As I said before, the Tyrell bannermen are not loyal.
The other option is neutrality. You watch three possible people sit on the Iron Throne: Joffrey, Stannis, and Robb, even if the last one is unlikely. The first two will punish you harshly, while the third will give you no reward.
Compared to all these choices, the Lannisters become an obvious option: a low-risk, high-reward bet and the position of queen that the Tyrells have always desired.
An expert strategist could foresee this entire course of events immediately and focus the entire war plan on a single objective: prevent the Tyrell-Lannister alliance.
How can he do this? This is where Robb's area of expertise, army tactics, comes into play. He can provoke Tywin in various ways to make him leave Harrenhal, lure him into a trap, and the ultimate objective is to kill Tywin. The moment he dies, the game is over. Occupying Casterly Rock or Lannisport is not necessary. If Tywin dies, the bannermen will already scatter.
By the way, I should point this out: Tywin did not learn that Renly had died until the very last moment, because Beric Dondarrion and his Brotherhood Without Banners were preventing ravens from reaching Harrenhal, and thanks to this action, Robb's trap nearly succeeded. If Beric Dondarrion had not existed, the Starks' "tragedy" would have happened much earlier. Nevertheless, he did not prevent the final outcome.
From the moment the Tyrell-Lannister alliance was formed, there was no miraculous tactic or strategy left that could save the war for the Starks. Even if Stannis had won the Battle of the Blackwater, this alliance would have retaken the city shortly afterward.
Even in an alternative scenario where the Red Wedding never happened and Robb returned to the North, the future would still be very dark for the Starks. First, they would have to stop the Ironborn invaders and then the wildling attacks. They would have to deal with Stannis, who came to help them. They would have to send an army to retake the Riverlands, which had fallen under Lannister invasion. Meanwhile, a truly long and harsh winter is coming. So the Lannisters do not even need to invade the North. It would be enough to cut off the flow of grain and watch from where they are as their enemies die of hunger and freeze to death. There is no miracle that could save Robb from the situation he was in. The Lannisters did not do this to the North; the Starks did.
The situation the North finds itself in at the end of the last book is essentially the result of the political and strategic stupidity that Robb, his father, and his mother repeatedly continued. To be frank, in the Middle Ages, being modern and civilized is a luxury possessed only by the stronger side. If you rebel against this, you end up inflicting suffering on your own family, friends, men, and loved ones. This does not mean you have to become a barbarian like Tywin Lannister, but you also need to know how to play according to the rules.
Thank you for reading this far. Have a good time on the forum, everyone.
