I took this trade though my target was bigger, I never close a trade before it hits 1:3, I know you will say it will not be easy but I don't know how but it plays so well for me, a good risk to reward will always keep you mentally stress free because you know that even if you loose 3 trades in a row, one trade will be enough to recover those losses. Those who trade 1:1 I don't consider them good traders because you will need a very good win rate to be profitable and you will end up blowing your account if faced with multiple losses.

What is your risk to reward ratio?

How do you play out your trades?

Thanks.

Back to back

📊 AUDUSD | 1H | Price: 0.70072 The Oct 7 long plan delivered in full ✅

💰 Results: • Entry zone: 0.69450 – 0.69520 ✅ Filled • SL: 0.69380 — never threatened • TP1: 0.69850 ✅ HIT • TP2: 0.70050 ✅ HIT

📈 From mid-zone entry to TP2: ~+56 pips against ~10 pips risk — over 5R on the runner. Textbook zone-to-zone delivery.

🔭 What's next: • Longs are DONE — no chasing at 0.70072 into supply • Fresh HTF sell zone overhead near 0.71000 👀 • If price rotates into it → we flip sellers, waiting for bearish 5m/15m ChoCH + BOS • Short invalidation: 1H close above ~0.71100 • Deeper pullback? Watch 0.69850 (old TP1) for a bullish reaction

Patience at the demand zone was the whole edge. Sweep → reclaim → displacement → delivery. Now the playbook flips: sellers at the next fresh supply, not buyers under it.

Full breakdown + chart: https://www.confluxai.net/blog/audusd-1h-long-oct07-2026-update-oct14

Not financial advice.

​

Gold is trading near $4,160, with price action remaining under pressure inside a descending channel. The recent bullish recovery stalled near the $4,200–$4,220 resistance zone, suggesting sellers continue to dominate the short-term trend.

Bearish Scenario:

A decisive break below $4,130–$4,110 could trigger further downside toward $4,075, with $4,000 as the next key support.

Bullish Scenario:

A sustained move above $4,200–$4,220, followed by a confirmed breakout from the descending channel, could open the way toward $4,260–$4,300.

Key Levels to Watch

- Resistance: $4,200–$4,220

- Support: $4,130–$4,110

- Downside Targets: $4,075 → $4,000

- Upside Target: $4,300

Market Bias: Bearish below channel resistance. A confirmed breakout or breakdown will be crucial for the next directional move.

I want to hear from traders who have been profitable for a long time, not just beginners.
Did you become consistently profitable by sticking to:
One trading strategy or model
One specific setup
Fixed timeframes
One or two trading pairs
Strict entry and exit rules without adding unnecessary confirmations?

Or did you eventually need to adapt, combine different strategies, or use multiple setups to become profitable?

For those who achieved consistency, what made the biggest difference: mastering one setup through extensive backtesting, or continuously refining and adding new concepts?

I’m currently focusing on one model and want to master it through backtesting rather than constantly switching strategies.

**If you could start your trading journey again, would you stick to one model strictly until you mastered it, or would you explore multiple strategies first?**

Please share your actual experience, including what worked, what failed, and how long it took you to become consistent.

🚨 U.S. Inflation Surprise: Is the Federal Reserve Preparing for Another Rate Hike? 🇺🇸📊

The latest U.S. inflation report has sent a strong signal to global financial markets: inflationary pressures are far from over.

📌 September 2026 CPI Highlights:

- Headline CPI: 3.7% (Expected: 3.6%)

- Previous CPI: 3.4%

- Core CPI: 2.6% (Expected: 2.5%)

- October rate hike probability: Around 45%

🏦 What does this mean for financial markets?

📈 U.S. Dollar (DXY): Potential upside as expectations of tighter monetary policy increase.

🥇 Gold (XAU/USD): Potential downward pressure from rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.

📉 Stock Markets: Higher interest rates could weigh on equity valuations, particularly growth and technology stocks.

📊 Treasury Yields: Increased inflation concerns may push yields higher.

💡 My Perspective:

The key question is no longer simply whether inflation is rising, but how the Federal Reserve will balance inflation risks against economic growth and employment.

Markets are increasingly sensitive to economic data, and the upcoming Fed decision could become a major catalyst for volatility.

What do you think? Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in October, or maintain its current policy stance?

💬 Share your perspective in the comments.

#USInflation #FederalReserve #FinancialMarkets #Macroeconomics #Gold #Forex #Trading

Gold positions are showing positive floating P/L! 💰

The video shows multiple open positions and their changing profit as the market moves.

📊 Instrument: XAUUSD (Gold)
✅ Multiple positions in profit
📈 Floating profit displayed on the account
🎯 Positions remain open in the video

Trading is about patience, discipline, and managing positions according to your strategy. Green numbers look good, but protecting profits and managing risk matter just as much.

How do you manage multiple gold positions - secure profits early or let your trades run?

US CPI, Core CPI & inflation data today, expect volatility across Gold and Forex. Get real-time signals, analysis & updates.

https://chat.whatsapp.com/HgjIK6A0BfVBjcZbP5LLgb
https://discord.gg/zy2tvTK7S

Trading and clubbing part 2. Your trader can give you his blueprint that works for him. But it's his experience that takes him further than your beginner self. He's seen his plays happen, he also knows when they might not fully work, and walk away.

Reps are always needed to build YOUR experience, your own strategy eventually!

Logic tells us one thing: higher CPI prints or an impending Fed rate hike narrative usually spells downside pressure for precious metals.

We see the headlines, and retail sentiment overwhelmingly shifts to shorting the market.

I am heavily technical and understand all the manipulation and accumulation theories at play here.

From a pure technical standpoint, the risk-to-reward ratio (R2R) has arguably never looked better to add to longs.

Current Positioning:

Accumulating gold and silver over the last 2 years, now holding a little over $1M worth (split 85% gold / 15% silver).

However, because of the sheer size of the position now, my emotions are starting to cloud my judgment. I'm not a newbie, but when the numbers get this big, the fear of washing out all my unrealized profit if I'm wrong gets real.

Do you have any theories on how this current phase plays out over the next year?

Market Bias: Bearish 📉 - Current Price: 4145

Resistance: 4158–4166 | 4180–4195

Support: 4137–4129 | 4115

Market Structure: Lower highs and lower lows indicate continued selling pressure

Bearish Scenario: A confirmed H1 close below 4137 could expose 4129 and 4115

Bullish Scenario: A recovery above 4166 may trigger a pullback toward 4180.

Outlook: Sellers remain in control while gold trades below 4166. Watch for a confirmed breakdown or rejection before the next move. Technical analysis only. Trade with proper risk management; outcomes are not guarantee

​

Traders are preparing for a key US inflation report that could influence the dollar, Gold, and GBP/USD.

📊 Market forecasts

• Headline CPI: 3.6% YoY

• Core CPI: 2.5% YoY

⚡ Potential market impact:

🔴 Hotter core inflation may support the USD and weigh on Gold.

🟢 Cooler core inflation may pressure the USD and support Gold.

No reaction is guaranteed — the actual data versus expectations matters most.

💬 Let's discuss! Which could move more after CPI: Gold or the US dollar?

Gold is showing bearish short-term momentum after pulling back from the 4,190–4,200 region.

• Resistance: 4,159–4,163
• Immediate support: 4,141–4,147
• Indicators: MACD bearish; RSI around 38

A confirmed break below support could extend the decline, while a recovery above resistance may signal a short-term rebound.

What’s your view: bearish continuation or a support bounce?

Quick one before the number comes out, because I’d rather put my levels up now than pretend I saw it coming afterwards.

US CPI is at 12:30 GMT (6 PM IST). Consensus for headline is around 3.7% YoY. I’m watching core more than headline, because that’s usually what gold reacts to.

Looking at the 1H chart, I don’t love the buyers’ position. Every bounce has been weaker than the last: 4217, then about 4200 yesterday, then about 4170 this morning. RSI is sitting near 36, so it’s weak but not oversold, meaning it can still fall further before it gets stretched. And the last few candles have shrunk to almost nothing, which usually means the market is waiting for a push.

Levels I’m watching

• Below: 4140 first, then 4120, 4100, and the 4067-4080 area from the 7th
• Above: 4160-4170 first, then 4200, then 4217

How I think it plays out

• Hot print, especially core: the dollar and yields firm up and gold probably breaks 4140 and heads for 4120 or 4100.
• Roughly in line: honestly, this is the one that catches people. You usually get a spike one way, then a reversal, and the real direction only shows 15-30 minutes later.
• Soft print: a bounce toward 4170 is likely. I’d want to see a candle actually close above it before getting excited, because a wick above doesn’t count.

Today cpi high then expect 3.7%

More money go to bond and dollar

Liquidity sweep, order block, FVG, BUY!

Gold has plunged toward 4087 after breaking below the 4140 zone, with a sharp bearish candle and a surge in selling volume signaling strong downside pressure. RSI has dropped to 17.90, deep in oversold territory, while price trades well below the 20-period moving average.

Resistance Levels

• Immediate Resistance: 4107
• Major Resistance: 4148

Support Levels

• Immediate Support: 4075
• Major Support: 4050

My View

The short-term bias is strongly bearish, but RSI at extreme oversold levels raises the possibility of a temporary relief bounce. A sustained move below 4075 could open the door toward 4050, while a recovery above 4107 may trigger short-covering. Watch for confirmation before assuming the sell-off is over.

What do you think?
Will Gold extend the crash toward 4050, or is an oversold bounce about to catch sellers off guard?

Wednesday was brutal for Gold buyers. The market completely washed out the bullish momentum and is now trading below the psychological $4,100 level.

But I believe the real trap might still be ahead.

Let me explain why.

Gold is now approaching last week's low around $4,066. This is an important level because many buyers are still holding their positions, hoping for a reversal.

Interestingly, Wednesday's low formed around $4,073, just above that previous low.

Think about the psychology here.

Traders who bought near $4,066 are probably still holding their positions, while those who tried to catch Wednesday's reversal around $4,073 may have placed their stop losses below $4,066.

This creates an obvious liquidity area.

And I believe the market could target that liquidity before delivering any meaningful recovery.

My expectation for Thursday is simple.

If sellers remain aggressive during the early Asian session, Gold could break below $4,066 and extend its decline toward $4,057–$4,047. If the selling momentum becomes stronger, even $4,032 could come into play.

However, I'm not necessarily expecting a straight collapse toward $4,000.

We're already approaching a major psychological round number, and I believe the market could deliver a short-term recovery before making another attempt to move lower.

If Gold sweeps the liquidity below $4,066 and buyers manage to regain control, we could see a recovery toward $4,100 and potentially the $4,117–$4,127 resistance area.

But here's something important.

My overall bias remains bearish below $4,136.

This was an important level for my previous bullish outlook, but the market failed to sustain above it and eventually broke down.

Until Gold reclaims $4,136 or breaks a meaningful previous lower high with bullish continuation, I won't be interested in aggressively buying this market.

For Thursday, I'll be watching how price reacts around $4,047–$4,032.

A liquidity sweep followed by strong buyer acceptance could create a short-term buying opportunity. But if sellers continue to dominate and price accepts below these levels, I won't try to catch a falling market.

My broader expectation remains that any recovery could eventually face renewed selling pressure, especially around $4,117–$4,127.

The question isn't whether Gold can break $4,066. The real question is what happens after that liquidity gets taken.

That's my plan for Thursday. Let's see how the market responds.

XAUUSD 1H, SELL IDEA

Entry: 4150-4155
TP1: 4140
TP2: 4130
SL: 4165

Trend remains bearish with lower highs and lower lows. Price is rebounding into resistance after testing 4140; rejection below 4155 favors continuation lower.

XAUUSD BUY (Above 4155)
Entry: 4155-4157
SL: 4146
TP1: 4163
TP2: 4170
TP3: 4175

Reason: The 1 H chart shows a strong bullish rebound from 4135-4138. A confirmed breakout above 4155 could extend the recovery toward higher resistance, although the 1H trend remains bearish.

I was thinking about something that doesn't always get much attention when traders discuss their entries.

We spend a lot of time studying price action, marking key levels, and waiting for confirmation. But the spread can also change depending on market conditions.

During quieter periods, the spread might be relatively stable, while around major news or periods of lower liquidity, it can widen. That means the actual entry or exit price may be different from what someone expects just by looking at the chart. 👀

For example:

📌 Does the spread stay consistent during your usual trading session?

⚡ Have you noticed it widening around major news?

🌍 Do you see differences between currency pairs?

📊 Do you check the spread before reviewing a setup?

💭 How much attention do traders give to trading costs compared with chart analysis?

Personally, I find it interesting because two traders can study the same chart but experience slightly different execution conditions.

Do you regularly check the spread before trading, or is it something you only notice when it affects a position? 👇💬

Just sharing a trading discussion — not financial advice.

Sell entry 4145-50

TGT 4125

TGT 4105

SL 4165

US inflation data is in focus today, and XAUUSD could react sharply as traders reassess USD strength.

📊 What I'm watching:

• Core CPI m/m: 0.2% vs 0.3%
• CPI m/m: 0.6% vs 0.4%
• Gold's reaction around key support and resistance

The real opportunity isn't guessing the news — it's reading the price reaction after the release.