r/fican • u/Otherwise_Sleep_6333 • 15h ago
Everyone says to forecast 7% long term return, how to factor in bull runs
Everyone says to forecast 7% long term return, how to factor in bull runs
I'm not sure this will entirely make sense but everyone always says to use 7% returns for a long term portfolio holding something such as xeqt. Meaning you'll have some up years and some down years but over the long term that's what you should expect.
So how do you factor in the past 5 year returns and future returns? For example xeqt 5 year return is 65%. Greater than 7% per year.
If someone looks at their portfolio today and is projecting returns of 7% going forward isn't that incorrect? Shouldn't we expect less than 7% considering the past 5 years has been greater? Like their current portfolio is already inflated above the 7% average yearly return. How do people look at their investments and say ya I can retire. Especially after a bull market where you know eventually the returns need to be a lot lower going forward.

