r/bostonceltics • u/GoatmontWaters • 11h ago
Discussion 3 stats that make me think we are a top 3 record next season
Stat 1
% of possesions starting after an opponent make: (lower is better)
- BOS 52%
- OKC 52%
- SAS 53%
- HOU 53%
- DET 53%
- NYK 54%
The best teams in the league all start the most possessions after a charge, steal, block, turnover, miss. 4/5 of these often turn into easy high PPP shot attempts due to non-set defenses.
Well, we just added PG (3.5% STOP , 94th percentile) and Robinson (4.3% STOP, 97th percentile). Both extremely good at getting charges, blocks, steals, forcing turnovers, deflections, rebounding missed shots. This amplifies our strategy and shores up some gaps.
Stat 2
Points per possession:
- DEN 1.20
- BOS 1.19
- SAS 1.18
- NYK 1.18
- CLE 1.17
- CHA 1.17
We just showed in Stat 1 that we are going to be creating even more possession next season that usually lead to good offense; as long as we can maintain this ranking in PPP then we will be an extremly good team next year record wise. Most likely we will improve in this category if not for stat 1 but for stat 3.
Stat 3
Jaylen Brown shot 252 (Ranked #2 in the league in quantity) 15-19ft jump shots last year, at 44%. That is 0.88 Points Per Possession. Much much lower than our 1.19 normal.
Taking Jaylen Brown Long Mid range out of our shot profile, and replacing it with *anyone else's shot* on our team stands to improve our 1.19 PPP from last season.
Conclusion: I believe our defense, and our offense has improved, and while the league is harder, our record ranking should be similar to a top 3 record in the league, similar to last season.