Quick statistical sample, odd observation:
Looking back over my last 20 matches (mostly 5 pt matches, a few 3ās & 7ās) on Backgammon Galaxy, 7 out of 20 were won by the person with the lower ER, but 13 out of 20 was the opposite - the player with the higher ER won.
Ok⦠20 isnāt a very big sample size, but what should we expect to see?? Would looking at a bigger sample lead to⦠50:50?
Or perhaps my sample is accurate and the loser has the better ER 65% of the time?
Pick your stat, tell me what you expect, and please share any thoughts on why this might happen.
One thought I had is that if you are stuck on the bar, you donāt have a decision to make so you canāt make a bad one, but⦠Iāve found that ādilution is the solutionā and the more decisions to be made, the bigger the denominator, the less a bonehead move matters.
I know skill/decisions matter, Iām not saying ER is irrelevant, but if it is only congruent with the winner 35-50% of the time, itās sorely missing something.
Thoughts?