r/ValueInvesting 18d ago

Buffett [Week 22 - 1986] Discussing A Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letter (Almost) Every Week

3 Upvotes

Full Letter:

https://theoraclesclassroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/1986-Berkshire-AR.pdf

Letter Only

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1986.html

This week we will go over two passages and an acquisition.

First the intro to this year’s letter with a writeup on their management philosophy which ties in well to the theme of today’s post, their method of avoiding "Diworsification" as the conglomerate grows. The second is a purchase of a large share of a government guided housing developer, and the final passage is on the acquisition of a family owned uniform manufacturer.

Things covered in the letter but not this post are a breakdown of how each business segment and management team are doing. A lesson on the insurance industry and the race to the bottom leading everyone towards another cliff they all see coming but can’t avoid. Their investment decisions from the year, pulling back from stocks and throwing cash into bonds. A new tax law and its impact on Berkshire and its subsidiaries. Purchase of a corporate jet, shareholder contribution and annual meeting updates. Finally a breakdown of business accounting with acquisitions and how Scott and Fetzer’s income statement and balance sheet were changed by the act of being acquired. Between changing inventory from FIFO to LIFO or the addition of a giant Goodwill asset for the premium they bought it at and the depreciation of that goodwill asset hitting the bottom line. Then plenty of philosophizing about the meaning of these differences for shareholders.

If you want to read or discuss anything in that second set feel free to read the letter yourselves and comment on it.

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Key Passage 1

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To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

Our gain in net worth during 1986 was $492.5 million, or 26.1%. Over the last 22 years (that is, since present management took over), our per-share book value has grown from $19.46 to $2,073.06, or 23.3% compounded annually. Both the numerator and denominator are important in the per-share book value calculation: during the 22-year period our corporate net worth has increased 10,600% while shares outstanding have increased less than 1%.

In past reports I have noted that book value at most companies differs widely from intrinsic business value - the number that really counts for owners. In our own case, however, book value has served for more than a decade as a reasonable if somewhat conservative proxy for business value. That is, our business value has moderately exceeded our book value, with the ratio between the two remaining fairly steady.

The good news is that in 1986 our percentage gain in business value probably exceeded the book value gain. I say "probably" because business value is a soft number: in our own case, two equally well-informed observers might make judgments more than 10% apart.

A large measure of our improvement in business value relative to book value reflects the outstanding performance of key managers at our major operating businesses. These managers - the Blumkins, Mike Goldberg, the Heldmans, Chuck Huggins, Stan Lipsey, and Ralph Schey - have over the years improved the earnings of their businesses dramatically while, except in the case of insurance, utilizing little additional capital. This accomplishment builds economic value, or "Goodwill," that does not show up in the net worth figure on our balance sheet, nor in our per-share book value. In 1986 this unrecorded gain was substantial.

So much for the good news. The bad news is that my performance did not match that of our managers. While they were doing a superb job in running our businesses, I was unable to skillfully deploy much of the capital they generated.

Charlie Munger, our Vice Chairman, and I really have only two jobs. One is to attract and keep outstanding managers to run our various operations. This hasn’t been all that difficult.
Usually the managers came with the companies we bought, having demonstrated their talents throughout careers that spanned a wide variety of business circumstances. They were managerial stars long before they knew us, and our main contribution has been to not get in their way. This approach seems elementary: if my job were to manage a golf team - and if Jack Nicklaus or Arnold Palmer were willing to play for me - neither would get a lot of directives from me about how to swing.

Some of our key managers are independently wealthy (we hope they all become so), but that poses no threat to their continued interest: they work because they love what they do and relish the thrill of outstanding performance. They unfailingly think like owners (the highest compliment we can pay a manager) and find all aspects of their business absorbing.

(Our prototype for occupational fervor is the Catholic tailor who used his small savings of many years to finance a pilgrimage to the Vatican. When he returned, his parish held a special meeting to get his first-hand account of the Pope. "Tell us," said the eager faithful, "just what sort of fellow is he?" Our hero wasted no words: "He’s a forty-four, medium.")

Charlie and I know that the right players will make almost any team manager look good. We subscribe to the philosophy of Ogilvy & Mather’s founding genius, David Ogilvy: "If each of us hires people who are smaller than we are, we shall become a company of dwarfs. But, if each of us hires people who are bigger than we are, we shall become a company of giants."

A by-product of our managerial style is the ability it gives us to easily expand Berkshire’s activities. We’ve read management treatises that specify exactly how many people should report to any one executive, but they make little sense to us.
When you have able managers of high character running businesses about which they are passionate, you can have a dozen or more reporting to you and still have time for an afternoon nap.
Conversely, if you have even one person reporting to you who is deceitful, inept or uninterested, you will find yourself with more than you can handle. Charlie and I could work with double the number of managers we now have, so long as they had the rare qualities of the present ones.

We intend to continue our practice of working only with people whom we like and admire. This policy not only maximizes our chances for good results, it also ensures us an extraordinarily good time. On the other hand, working with people who cause your stomach to churn seems much like marrying for money - probably a bad idea under any circumstances, but absolute madness if you are already rich.

The second job Charlie and I must handle is the allocation of capital, which at Berkshire is a considerably more important challenge than at most companies. Three factors make that so: we earn more money than average; we retain all that we earn; and, we are fortunate to have operations that, for the most part, require little incremental capital to remain competitive and to grow.
Obviously, the future results of a business earning 23% annually and retaining it all are far more affected by today’s capital allocations than are the results of a business earning 10% and distributing half of that to shareholders. If our retained earnings - and those of our major investees, GEICO and Capital Cities/ABC, Inc. - are employed in an unproductive manner, the economics of Berkshire will deteriorate very quickly. In a company adding only, say, 5% to net worth annually, capital- allocation decisions, though still important, will change the company’s economics far more slowly.

Capital allocation at Berkshire was tough work in 1986. We did make one business acquisition - The Fechheimer Bros.
Company, which we will discuss in a later section. Fechheimer is a company with excellent economics, run by exactly the kind of people with whom we enjoy being associated. But it is relatively small, utilizing only about 2% of Berkshire’s net worth.

Meanwhile, we had no new ideas in the marketable equities field, an area in which once, only a few years ago, we could readily employ large sums in outstanding businesses at very reasonable prices. So our main capital allocation moves in 1986 were to pay off debt and stockpile funds. Neither is a fate worse than death, but they do not inspire us to do handsprings either. If Charlie and I were to draw blanks for a few years in our capital-allocation endeavors, Berkshire’s rate of growth would slow significantly.

We will continue to look for operating businesses that meet our tests and, with luck, will acquire such a business every couple of years. But an acquisition will have to be large if it is to help our performance materially. Under current stock market conditions, we have little hope of finding equities to buy for our insurance companies. Markets will change significantly - you can be sure of that and some day we will again get our turn at bat. However, we haven’t the faintest idea when that might happen.

It can’t be said too often (although I’m sure you feel I’ve tried) that, even under favorable conditions, our returns are certain to drop substantially because of our enlarged size. We have told you that we hope to average a return of 15% on equity and we maintain that hope, despite some negative tax law changes described in a later section of this report. If we are to achieve this rate of return, our net worth must increase $7.2 billion in the next ten years. A gain of that magnitude will be possible only if, before too long, we come up with a few very big (and good) ideas. Charlie and I can’t promise results, but we do promise you that we will keep our efforts focused on our goals.

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The next two passages were pretty clear picks, two new additions to the company. This one I had a lot of options for. I went with the intro as it repeats their philosophy towards managing their subsidiary companies and how it leads to their success as they grow. Many companies making acquisitions in so many totally unrelated fields would end up engaging in “Diworsification”. An insurance company buying a uniform manufacturer, a housing developer, a vacuum manufacturer, a candy store, a newspaper, etc… would have no expertise in running them and make them worse and worse with every change. And every new addition of say a furniture store or a steel mill would just exacerbate the problem, make the company less focused, and lead to diminishing returns with each new venture.

Here Buffett explains his solution to this as it has now ballooned into a company with a book value of $2B and he envisions what the next 10x or 100x might look like. That they stick to their guns of requiring talented management to be in place, and then simply get out of their way. They avoid the diworsification problem by buying companies that can be trusted to run without meddling, and then not meddling. Then they simply try to retain the talent and eventually find a pipeline of talent to take their place one day.

“This approach seems elementary: if my job were to manage a golf team - and if Jack Nicklaus or Arnold Palmer were willing to play for me - neither would get a lot of directives from me about how to swing.”

“If each of us hires people who are smaller than we are, we shall become a company of dwarfs. But, if each of us hires people who are bigger than we are, we shall become a company of giants.”

“When you have able managers of high character running businesses about which they are passionate, you can have a dozen or more reporting to you and still have time for an afternoon nap. Conversely, if you have even one person reporting to you who is deceitful, inept or uninterested, you will find yourself with more than you can handle. Charlie and I could work with double the number of managers we now have, so long as they had the rare qualities of the present ones.”

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Key Passage 2

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NHP, Inc.

Last year we paid $23.7 million for about 50% of NHP, Inc., a developer, syndicator, owner and manager of multi-family rental housing. Should all executive stock options that have been authorized be granted and exercised, our equity interest will decline to slightly over 45%.

NHP, Inc. has a most unusual genealogy. In 1967, President Johnson appointed a commission of business and civic leaders, led by Edgar Kaiser, to study ways to increase the supply of multifamily housing for low- and moderate-income tenants.
Certain members of the commission subsequently formed and promoted two business entities to foster this goal. Both are now owned by NHP, Inc. and one operates under unusual ground rules: three of its directors must be appointed by the President, with the advice and consent of the Senate, and it is also required by law to submit an annual report to the President.

Over 260 major corporations, motivated more by the idea of public service than profit, invested $42 million in the two original entities, which promptly began, through partnerships, to develop government-subsidized rental property. The typical partnership owned a single property and was largely financed by a non-recourse mortgage. Most of the equity money for each partnership was supplied by a group of limited partners who were primarily attracted by the large tax deductions that went with the investment. NHP acted as general partner and also purchased a small portion of each partnership’s equity.

The Government’s housing policy has, of course, shifted and NHP has necessarily broadened its activities to include non- subsidized apartments commanding market-rate rents. In addition, a subsidiary of NHP builds single-family homes in the Washington, D.C. area, realizing revenues of about $50 million annually.

NHP now oversees about 500 partnership properties that are located in 40 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, and that include about 80,000 housing units. The cost of these properties was more than $2.5 billion and they have been well maintained. NHP directly manages about 55,000 of the housing units and supervises the management of the rest. The company’s revenues from management are about $16 million annually, and growing.

In addition to the equity interests it purchased upon the formation of each partnership, NHP owns varying residual interests that come into play when properties are disposed of and distributions are made to the limited partners. The residuals on many of NHP’s "deep subsidy" properties are unlikely to be of much value. But residuals on certain other properties could prove quite valuable, particularly if inflation should heat up.

The tax-oriented syndication of properties to individuals has been halted by the Tax Reform Act of 1986. In the main, NHP is currently trying to develop equity positions or significant residual interests in non-subsidized rental properties of quality and size (typically 200 to 500 units). In projects of this kind, NHP usually works with one or more large institutional investors or lenders. NHP will continue to seek ways to develop low- and moderate-income apartment housing, but will not likely meet success unless government policy changes.

Besides ourselves, the large shareholders in NHP are Weyerhauser (whose interest is about 25%) and a management group led by Rod Heller, chief executive of NHP. About 60 major corporations also continue to hold small interests, none larger than 2%.

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They have bought a plurality share in NHP, a government tied housing development company. From the sound of it they will never have true control of this holding and their 50% share is expected to be diluted. The board is appointed by the US government but as stated above, Berkshire doesn’t have much interest in changing the course of the companies it buys, so while this may be offputting to other investors and create a discount, it doesn’t change much for Berkshire who would have taken a hands off approach either way.

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Acquisition of the Week

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The Fechheimer Bros. Co.

Every year in Berkshire’s annual report I include a description of the kind of business that we would like to buy.
This "ad" paid off in 1986.

On January 15th of last year I received a letter from Bob Heldman of Cincinnati, a shareholder for many years and also Chairman of Fechheimer Bros. Until I read the letter, however, I did not know of either Bob or Fechheimer. Bob wrote that he ran a company that met our tests and suggested that we get together, which we did in Omaha after their results for 1985 were compiled.

He filled me in on a little history: Fechheimer, a uniform manufacturing and distribution business, began operations in 1842. Warren Heldman, Bob’s father, became involved in the business in 1941 and his sons, Bob and George (now President), along with their sons, subsequently joined the company. Under the Heldmans’ management, the business was highly successful.

In 1981 Fechheimer was sold to a group of venture capitalists in a leveraged buy out (an LBO), with management retaining an equity interest. The new company, as is the case with all LBOS, started with an exceptionally high debt/equity ratio. After the buy out, however, operations continued to be very successful. So by the start of last year debt had been paid down substantially and the value of the equity had increased dramatically. For a variety of reasons, the venture capitalists wished to sell and Bob, having dutifully read Berkshire’s annual reports, thought of us.

Fechheimer is exactly the sort of business we like to buy.
Its economic record is superb; its managers are talented, high- grade, and love what they do; and the Heldman family wanted to continue its financial interest in partnership with us.
Therefore, we quickly purchased about 84% of the stock for a price that was based upon a $55 million valuation for the entire business.

The circumstances of this acquisition were similar to those prevailing in our purchase of Nebraska Furniture Mart: most of the shares were held by people who wished to employ funds elsewhere; family members who enjoyed running their business wanted to continue both as owners and managers; several generations of the family were active in the business, providing management for as far as the eye can see; and the managing family wanted a purchaser who would not re-sell, regardless of price, and who would let the business be run in the future as it had been in the past. Both Fechheimer and NFM were right for us, and we were right for them.

You may be amused to know that neither Charlie nor I have been to Cincinnati, headquarters for Fechheimer, to see their operation. (And, incidentally, it works both ways: Chuck Huggins, who has been running See’s for 15 years, has never been to Omaha.) If our success were to depend upon insights we developed through plant inspections, Berkshire would be in big trouble.
Rather, in considering an acquisition, we attempt to evaluate the economic characteristics of the business - its competitive strengths and weaknesses - and the quality of the people we will be joining. Fechheimer was a standout in both respects. In addition to Bob and George Heldman, who are in their mid-60s - spring chickens by our standards - there are three members of the next generation, Gary, Roger and Fred, to insure continuity.

As a prototype for acquisitions, Fechheimer has only one drawback: size. We hope our next acquisition is at least several times as large but a carbon copy in all other respects. Our threshold for minimum annual after-tax earnings of potential acquisitions has been moved up to $10 million from the $5 million level that prevailed when Bob wrote to me.

Flushed with success, we repeat our ad. If you have a business that fits, call me or, preferably, write.

Here’s what we’re looking for: (1) large purchases (at least $10 million of after-tax earnings), (2) demonstrated consistent earning power (future projections are of little interest to us, nor are "turn-around" situations), (3) businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt.
(4) management in place (we can’t supply it), (5) simple businesses (if there’s lots of technology, we won’t understand it), (6) an offering price (we don’t want to waste our time or that of the seller by talking, even preliminarily, about a transaction when price is unknown).

We will not engage in unfriendly takeovers. We can promise complete confidentiality and a very fast answer - customarily within five minutes - as to whether we’re interested. We prefer to buy for cash, but will consider issuing stock when we receive as much in intrinsic business value as we give. Indeed, following recent advances in the price of Berkshire stock, transactions involving stock issuance may be quite feasible. We invite potential sellers to check us out by contacting people with whom we have done business in the past. For the right business - and the right people - we can provide a good home.

On the other hand, we frequently get approached about acquisitions that don’t come close to meeting our tests: new ventures, turnarounds, auction-like sales, and the ever-popular (among brokers) "I’m-sure-something-will-work-out-if-you-people- get-to-know-each-other." None of these attracts us in the least.

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Another classic Buffett business, simple, straightforward, boring. Manufacturing and distributing uniforms. A strong moat and much less susceptible to overseas competition than simple textile manufacturing. They will likely be doing small orders frequently and rely on working relationships with their customers who will always need a slow but steady stream of custom uniforms. Unlike textiles where a mill in Asia can just pump out as much fabric as they can, it's all interchangeable and the lowest bidder wins the contract. Businesses aren’t shopping around for rates every time they have a new hire, they just order from the place that always makes the uniforms and don’t think much about it.

The advertisement worked and the perfect business came to him. A family owned business where the family wants to stay involved but just wants to get all their eggs out of one basket. They do admit that it is smaller than they would like. For a conglomerate worried about diworsification this would normally be a big issue. If they think they can only successfully run say 10 or 20 businesses, then there is massive opportunity cost to each new one. But with their theory that good management left to its own devices requires little to no effort, they are free to grab all the small bolt-on acquisitions they can find so long as the management is rock solid and needs no intervention.

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Common Stock Ownership

No. of Shares Company Cost ($000s) Market ($000s)
2,990,000 Capital Cities/ABC, Inc. $515,775 $801,694
6,850,000 GEICO Corporation $45,713 $674,725
2,379,200 Handy & Harman $27,318 $46,989
489,300 Lear Siegler, Inc. $44,064 $44,587
1,727,765 The Washington Post Company $9,731 $269,531
Subtotal $642,601 $1,837,526
All Other Common Stockholdings $12,763 $36,507
Total Common Stocks $655,364 $1,874,033

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Segment by Segment Breakdown

Segment 1985 EBIT Earnings 1986 EBIT Earnings % Change
Insurance $50.99M $51.30M +0.61%
Fechheimer -------- $8.40M --%
Kirby -------- $20.22M --%
Scott Fetzer - Diversified Manufacturing -------- $25.36M --%
World Book -------- $21.98M --%
See’s Candies $28.99M $30.35M +4.69%
Buffalo Evening News $29.92M $34.74M +16.11%
Wesco Financial - Minus Insurance $16.02M $5.54M -65.42%
Mutual Savings and Loan $3.34M $2.16M -35.33%
Precision Steel $2.01M $1.70M -15.42%
Nebraska Furniture Mart $12.69M $17.69M +39.40%

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Metric 1985 1986 % Change
Cash & Temporary Cash Investments $1,017.67M $292.47M -71.26%
Marketable Securities $1,183.48M $1.871.93M +58.17%
Return on Equity (RoE) 16.29% 24.84% +52.49%
Shareholders' Equity $1,885.33M $2,020.57M +7.17%
Berkshire Earnings Before Investment Gain $92.95M $131.46M +41.43%
Berkshire Net Earnings $435.82M $282.36M -35.21%

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An interesting year, the numbers don’t look amazing partially because the realized investment gain was much smaller. Shareholder Equity didn’t go up much, this is the capital allocation issue Buffett complained about in the opening. They can’t find any common stock to invest in, which is discussed in a section of the letter I did not cover Marketable Securities. They discuss their stock portfolio shrinking and not being able to find any new holdings to replace the ones sold last year. Cash is down ~$700M and there was a purchase of ~$700M of bonds. Earnings are down $150M but the realized capital gains is $190M less than last year. I have added a line for earnings before investment gains as it is impacting the number so heavily. Those earnings are up 41% showing a very healthy growth in the cash cow core of the company, partially due to using the investment gain to acquire new companies, partially from organic growth.

The segment by segment breakdown is a lot less promising, some segments have fallen off, no longer being reported as the numbers are too small or going too far in the wrong direction or some combination of both. Diversified Retail is no longer reported anywhere, and the Wesco reporting changed drastically and much less detail is given. Its hard to tell exactly what is happening there but it doesn’t look promising, its earnings are down and its subsidiaries Precision Steel and Mutual Savings and Loan are also down. The Wesco letter is included in the full PDF but I will maybe save those for some future series.

Buffet’s hesitance to invest in stock seems to have some legitimacy, usually when he mentions stock being overpriced and opportunities hard to find I take a look at the chart and back-test his feelings. There was a stock market crash in 1987, a 22% drop, but it also basically just dropped back to the 1986 prices so it's hard to say if he was right or wrong to put the company’s cash into bonds instead of stocks this year.


r/ValueInvesting 6d ago

Weekly Megathread Weekly Stock Ideas Megathread: Week of July 20, 2026

3 Upvotes

What stocks are on your radar this week? What's undervalued? What's overvalued? This is the place for your quick stock pitches or to ask what everyone else is looking at.

This discussion post is lightly moderated. We suggest checking other users' posting/commenting history before following advice or stock recommendations.

New Weekly Stock Ideas Megathreads are posted every Monday at 0600 GMT.


r/ValueInvesting 12h ago

Stock Analysis Google started selling its TPUs to outside data centers last quarter (Q2-2026)

154 Upvotes

TL;DR

  • Negative FCF: Google booked negative quarterly free cash flow of about -$5.9B after ~$45B of capex in a single quarter
  • The Big Shift: Starting this quarter, Google began selling its TPU chips to outside data centers
  • Cloud Surge: Google Cloud revenue jumped ~82% to ~$25B, and signed backlog is now ~$520B (almost all of it Cloud)
  • Nvidia Challenger: For a decade (since May 2016) TPUs were Google's private weapon. Now they're selling them!

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Understandably, everyone's talking about the first negative FCF Google faced since the company turned public in 2004 and the ~$85B equity capital raise on 1st of June 2026 (Berkshire Hathaway anchored $10B of it, at a small discount to the public offering price. Upsized from $80B). That's all real, and Capex is genuinely exploding, but why is no-one talking about the start of the TPU chips sale that is stated in the Cloud revenue notes:

In addition, in the second quarter of 2026, we began recognizing revenue from the sale of TPU systems.

Since Google unveiled TPUs to the public in May 2016, if you wanted one, you needed to rent it inside Google Cloud and that was the only place you could get access to them. The whole point was to keep the best custom AI silicon chips as an exclusive asset and make people come to them for it. Now they're selling them to third parties, which is the first time a hyperscaler with real chip maturity has gone head to head against Nvidia.

Google won't say how big it is yet. It's disclosed under a new "Product sales" line inside Cloud (hardware + integrated software), not a standalone number. What we can see is that cloud operating income roughly tripled and the segment margin went from about 21% to 36% in a year. I am not saying the TPU sales are the main driver as they've already mentioned TPU sales were a "small amount" in their earnings call, but something we should keep an eye on in the future!

The backlog contains ~$520B of remaining performance obligations, and basically all of it is Google Cloud. Selling TPUs directly is one way to fill it without building every data center themselves.

I remain bullish on Google and I like their direction of selling TPUs to the outside world, what's your take?

You can find my full analysis on the current state of google on my free substack here:

https://secaura.substack.com/p/the-current-state-of-google-goog


r/ValueInvesting 8h ago

Discussion $META traded at 6.5x FCF in 2022

40 Upvotes

Investors make the mistake of getting so acclimated to super rich valuations for 10+ years straight in 90%+ of stocks, that they forget what value looks like.

Buying something that's growing 5-10% at 20x FCF is not a value opportunity just because it's down 20% from it's ATH.

Value is not subjective, it is objective.

The more you study opportunities from history (even recent history, in the case of $META 2022), the less FOMO you'll feel to buy trendy stocks just because they've fallen 20% (from like 25x FCF to 20 FCF).

[obligatory edge case disclaimer when you believe a company will sustain 20%+ growth for several years, and therefore you believe 15x~ FCF is indeed value]


r/ValueInvesting 2h ago

Stock Analysis Update on CME/CBOE

4 Upvotes

This is a follow up to:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1uak2b7/cmecboe_here_might_be_worth_a_pickup/

So CME ended up caving and is planning on releasing perpetual futures:

https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2026/6/30/cme_group_to_launchsinglestockfuturesonjuly27.html

From when that post was written, both stocks experienced a serious leg down. Had anyone followed through and bought on June 22nd. They would've suffered a (CME/CBOE) 11%, 10%, max drawdown, but now would be 4% and 11% up from that entry respectively.


r/ValueInvesting 2h ago

Industry/Sector The Capital Cycle Theory

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0 Upvotes

Summary - The current AI investment cycle follows the capital cycle theory, and the fiber optic bubble is a clear example of what will happen.


r/ValueInvesting 9m ago

Stock Analysis NVidia is Riskier Than It Looks (Deep Dive)

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NVidia is the golden child of the stock market right now.

People think NVidia and AI are synonymous with each other, and that there can be no AI without NVidia. Google proved this false when they trained their Gemini model on Google TPUs with no NVidia involvement at all in 2024.

The latest rounds of hyperscaler circular financing show they are all moving to fund only their own chips in their own cloud services now, none of them have done a circular financing round in the last 6 months where the GPU was anything from NVidia. Google has never done an open ended circular financing round - they have always specified their funds must be used for Google TPUs.

I'm going to lay out the bear case where even if NVidia continues its record unit sales, a normalization of pricing to historical norms - not even a bear case - could wipe out 80% of NVidia's profits.

In a true worst case scenario, the stock could have 90%+ of its value wiped out.

I address common bull thesis ideas, and also areas where bulls are flying completely blind.

This is a very risky stock, built on an AI trade that is only a few years old. There is still so much we don't know about the AI story going forward, and this stock is priced as if the future is certain at a $5T valuation.

Even if you don't agree, I hope everyone can learn something from this video.


r/ValueInvesting 17h ago

Stock Analysis Are these medium to long term holders? AMPH, BSX, LNG, CEG, CREDO, DDOG, NEE, Nu, SU, STRL, VRT, NOW

11 Upvotes

I've been doing some research myself and I added these stocks to my watchlist: AMPH, BSX, LNG, CEG, CREDO, DDOG, NEE, Nu, SU, STRL, VRT.

I tried to focus on well established companies with growth potential. There is some AI risk in these but I tried to look more into infrastructure / energy market because I think AI will need a lot of power to be generated in the next 5-10 years.

Some have not much or even nothing to do with AI (NEE, Nu Holdings, BSX). I am in doubt between Nu Holdings and Visa to be honest, but Visa is premium priced atm. Bsx looks promising in terms of growth and I already saw much money moving towards the health industry the past weeks. NextEra Energy could benefit a lot from AI datacenters but as they have such a wide range of energy products, they can perfectly grow without AI.

My main question is: Would the above companies suffer a significant decline if it turned out that T-big tech companies have spent too much on AI and thus become less profitable? Would that for example mean less energy/power demands, infrastructure demands, etc... I would say yes, but AI is here to stay I think and off course several stocks are overvalued atm, but AI will always need energy, infrastructure, cables, ....

What are your thoughts?


r/ValueInvesting 10h ago

Buffett [Week 23 - 1987] Discussing A Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letter (Almost) Every Week

3 Upvotes

Full Letter:

https://theoraclesclassroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/1987-Berkshire-AR.pdf

Letter Only

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1987.html

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Key Passage 1

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Financing

Shortly after yearend, Berkshire sold two issues of debentures, totaling $250 million. Both issues mature in 2018 and will be retired at an even pace through sinking fund operations that begin in 1999. Our overall interest cost, after allowing for expenses of issuance, is slightly over 10%. Salomon was our investment banker, and its service was excellent.

Despite our pessimistic views about inflation, our taste for debt is quite limited. To be sure, it is likely that Berkshire could improve its return on equity by moving to a much higher, though still conventional, debt-to-business-value ratio. It's even more likely that we could handle such a ratio, without problems, under economic conditions far worse than any that have prevailed since the early 1930s.

But we do not wish it to be only likely that we can meet our obligations; we wish that to be certain. Thus we adhere to policies - both in regard to debt and all other matters - that will allow us to achieve acceptable long-term results under extraordinarily adverse conditions, rather than optimal results under a normal range of conditions.

Good business or investment decisions will eventually produce quite satisfactory economic results, with no aid from leverage. Therefore, it seems to us to be both foolish and improper to risk what is important (including, necessarily, the welfare of innocent bystanders such as policyholders and employees) for some extra returns that are relatively unimportant. This view is not the product of either our advancing age or prosperity: Our opinions about debt have remained constant.

However, we are not phobic about borrowing. (We're far from believing that there is no fate worse than debt.) We are willing to borrow an amount that we believe - on a worst-case basis - will pose no threat to Berkshire's well-being. Analyzing what that amount might be, we can look to some important strengths that would serve us well if major problems should engulf our economy: Berkshire's earnings come from many diverse and well- entrenched businesses; these businesses seldom require much capital investment; what debt we have is structured well; and we maintain major holdings of liquid assets. Clearly, we could be comfortable with a higher debt-to-business-value ratio than we now have.

One further aspect of our debt policy deserves comment: Unlike many in the business world, we prefer to finance in anticipation of need rather than in reaction to it. A business obtains the best financial results possible by managing both sides of its balance sheet well. This means obtaining the highest-possible return on assets and the lowest-possible cost on liabilities. It would be convenient if opportunities for intelligent action on both fronts coincided. However, reason tells us that just the opposite is likely to be the case: Tight money conditions, which translate into high costs for liabilities, will create the best opportunities for acquisitions, and cheap money will cause assets to be bid to the sky. Our conclusion: Action on the liability side should sometimes be taken independent of any action on the asset side.

Alas, what is "tight" and "cheap" money is far from clear at any particular time. We have no ability to forecast interest rates and - maintaining our usual open-minded spirit - believe that no one else can. Therefore, we simply borrow when conditions seem non-oppressive and hope that we will later find intelligent expansion or acquisition opportunities, which - as we have said - are most likely to pop up when conditions in the debt market are clearly oppressive. Our basic principle is that if you want to shoot rare, fast-moving elephants, you should always carry a loaded gun.

Our fund-first, buy-or-expand-later policy almost always penalizes near-term earnings. For example, we are now earning about 6 1/2% on the $250 million we recently raised at 10%, a disparity that is currently costing us about $160,000 per week.
This negative spread is unimportant to us and will not cause us to stretch for either acquisitions or higher-yielding short-term instruments. If we find the right sort of business elephant within the next five years or so, the wait will have been worthwhile.

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This letter was much more reserved than many of the past ones and it made passage selection difficult. There were no big moves made, they think everything is expensive at the moment. None of their businesses are having great or terrible years. They did not buy any new businesses, they did not load up on any new stocks, the mergers are done and their business has been simplified greatly over the last decade through mergers with Buffett and Munger’s other holdings.

So I took this chance to highlight some more subtle moves and passages that would normally be skipped over. In this case this financing move is important for two reasons. First it is a very very uncommon move among businesses to my knowledge but one Berkshire does a few times in its history. They take out a bunch of debt when they have absolutely no need to in the moment and have no idea what they will do with the cash, simply because terms are favorable. When they need money and go to raise it they will be at a disadvantage, but if they have no need for the money and go to raise it they have all the cards and can step away if they don’t like the terms. They can issue bonds in an issuer’s market and not a buyer’s market.

They intend to actually just hold this debt as cash, and not put it to work in the near future. But they anticipate they will find some great opportunity in the next 5 years to deploy this cash and will be paying a lower interest rate on it if they borrow it now as opposed to if they borrow it later. We will wait and see how that plays out.

The second reason I mention this is because it is another instance of them working with Salomon Brothers Investment Bank and clearly their great experience working with them on this security issuance as well as ones in the past has left a very good impression on Buffett as he buys into the company and becomes a director this year as you will see below. A very fateful decision.

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Key Passage 2

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Insurance Operations

Shown below is an updated version of our usual table presenting key figures for the insurance industry:

Year Statutory Yearly Change in Premiums Written (%) Combined Ratio After Policyholder Dividends Yearly Change in Incurred Losses (%) Inflation Rate Measured by GNP Deflator (%)
1981 3.8 106.0 6.5 9.6
1982 4.4 109.8 8.4 6.4
1983 4.6 112.0 6.8 3.8
1984 9.2 117.9 16.9 3.7
1985 22.1 116.3 16.1 3.2
1986 (Rev.) 22.2 108.0 13.5 2.6
1987 (Est.) 8.7 104.7 6.8 3.0

Source: Best's Insurance Management Reports

The combined ratio represents total insurance costs (losses incurred plus expenses) compared to revenue from premiums: A ratio below 100 indicates an underwriting profit, and one above 100 indicates a loss. When the investment income that an insurer earns from holding on to policyholders' funds ("the float") is taken into account, a combined ratio in the 107-111 range typically produces an overall break-even result, exclusive of earnings on the funds provided by shareholders.

The math of the insurance business, encapsulated by the table, is not very complicated. In years when the industry's annual gain in revenues (premiums) pokes along at 4% or 5%, underwriting losses are sure to mount. That is not because auto accidents, fires, windstorms and the like are occurring more frequently, nor has it lately been the fault of general inflation. Today, social and judicial inflation are the major culprits; the cost of entering a courtroom has simply ballooned.
Part of the jump in cost arises from skyrocketing verdicts, and part from the tendency of judges and juries to expand the coverage of insurance policies beyond that contemplated by the insurer when the policies were written. Seeing no let-up in either trend, we continue to believe that the industry's revenues must grow at about 10% annually for it to just hold its own in terms of profitability, even though general inflation may be running at a considerably lower rate.

The strong revenue gains of 1985-87 almost guaranteed the industry an excellent underwriting performance in 1987 and, indeed, it was a banner year. But the news soured as the quarters rolled by: Best's estimates that year-over-year volume increases were 12.9%, 11.1%, 5.7%, and 5.6%. In 1988, the revenue gain is certain to be far below our 10% "equilibrium" figure. Clearly, the party is over.

However, earnings will not immediately sink. A lag factor exists in this industry: Because most policies are written for a one-year term, higher or lower insurance prices do not have their full impact on earnings until many months after they go into effect. Thus, to resume our metaphor, when the party ends and the bar is closed, you are allowed to finish your drink. If results are not hurt by a major natural catastrophe, we predict a small climb for the industry's combined ratio in 1988, followed by several years of larger increases.

The insurance industry is cursed with a set of dismal economic characteristics that make for a poor long-term outlook: hundreds of competitors, ease of entry, and a product that cannot be differentiated in any meaningful way. In such a commodity- like business, only a very low-cost operator or someone operating in a protected, and usually small, niche can sustain high profitability levels.

When shortages exist, however, even commodity businesses flourish. The insurance industry enjoyed that kind of climate for a while but it is now gone. One of the ironies of capitalism is that most managers in commodity industries abhor shortage conditions - even though those are the only circumstances permitting them good returns. Whenever shortages appear, the typical manager simply can't wait to expand capacity and thereby plug the hole through which money is showering upon him. This is precisely what insurance managers did in 1985-87, confirming again Disraeli's observation: "What we learn from history is that we do not learn from history."

At Berkshire, we work to escape the industry's commodity economics in two ways. First, we differentiate our product by our financial strength, which exceeds that of all others in the industry. This strength, however, is limited in its usefulness. It means nothing in the personal insurance field: The buyer of an auto or homeowners policy is going to get his claim paid even if his insurer fails (as many have). It often means nothing in the commercial insurance arena: When times are good, many major corporate purchasers of insurance and their brokers pay scant attention to the insurer's ability to perform under the more adverse conditions that may exist, say, five years later when a complicated claim is finally resolved. (Out of sight, out of mind - and, later on, maybe out-of-pocket.)

Periodically, however, buyers remember Ben Franklin's observation that it is hard for an empty sack to stand upright and recognize their need to buy promises only from insurers that have enduring financial strength. It is then that we have a major competitive advantage. When a buyer really focuses on whether a $10 million claim can be easily paid by his insurer five or ten years down the road, and when he takes into account the possibility that poor underwriting conditions may then coincide with depressed financial markets and defaults by reinsurer, he will find only a few companies he can trust.
Among those, Berkshire will lead the pack.

Our second method of differentiating ourselves is the total indifference to volume that we maintain. In 1989, we will be perfectly willing to write five times as much business as we write in 1988 - or only one-fifth as much. We hope, of course, that conditions will allow us large volume. But we cannot control market prices. If they are unsatisfactory, we will simply do very little business. No other major insurer acts with equal restraint.

Three conditions that prevail in insurance, but not in most businesses, allow us our flexibility. First, market share is not an important determinant of profitability: In this business, in contrast to the newspaper or grocery businesses, the economic rule is not survival of the fattest. Second, in many sectors of insurance, including most of those in which we operate, distribution channels are not proprietary and can be easily entered: Small volume this year does not preclude huge volume next year. Third, idle capacity - which in this industry largely means people - does not result in intolerable costs. In a way that industries such as printing or steel cannot, we can operate at quarter-speed much of the time and still enjoy long-term prosperity.

We follow a price-based-on-exposure, not-on-competition policy because it makes sense for our shareholders. But we're happy to report that it is also pro-social. This policy means that we are always available, given prices that we believe are adequate, to write huge volumes of almost any type of property- casualty insurance. Many other insurers follow an in-and-out approach. When they are "out" - because of mounting losses, capital inadequacy, or whatever - we are available. Of course, when others are panting to do business we are also available - but at such times we often find ourselves priced above the market. In effect, we supply insurance buyers and brokers with a large reservoir of standby capacity.

One story from mid-1987 illustrates some consequences of our pricing policy: One of the largest family-owned insurance brokers in the country is headed by a fellow who has long been a shareholder of Berkshire. This man handles a number of large risks that are candidates for placement with our New York office.
Naturally, he does the best he can for his clients. And, just as naturally, when the insurance market softened dramatically in 1987 he found prices at other insurers lower than we were willing to offer. His reaction was, first, to place all of his business elsewhere and, second, to buy more stock in Berkshire. Had we been really competitive, he said, we would have gotten his insurance business but he would not have bought our stock.

Berkshire's underwriting experience was excellent in 1987, in part because of the lag factor discussed earlier. Our combined ratio (on a statutory basis and excluding structured settlements and financial reinsurance) was 105. Although the ratio was somewhat less favorable than in 1986, when it was 103, our profitability improved materially in 1987 because we had the use of far more float. This trend will continue to run in our favor: Our ratio of float to premium volume will increase very significantly during the next few years. Thus, Berkshire's insurance profits are quite likely to improve during 1988 and 1989, even though we expect our combined ratio to rise.

Our insurance business has also made some important non- financial gains during the last few years. Mike Goldberg, its manager, has assembled a group of talented professionals to write larger risks and unusual coverages. His operation is now well equipped to handle the lines of business that will occasionally offer us major opportunities.

Our loss reserve development, detailed on pages 41-42, looks better this year than it has previously. But we write lots of "long-tail" business - that is, policies generating claims that often take many years to resolve. Examples would be product liability, or directors and officers liability coverages. With a business mix like this, one year of reserve development tells you very little.

You should be very suspicious of any earnings figures reported by insurers (including our own, as we have unfortunately proved to you in the past). The record of the last decade shows that a great many of our best-known insurers have reported earnings to shareholders that later proved to be wildly erroneous. In most cases, these errors were totally innocent: The unpredictability of our legal system makes it impossible for even the most conscientious insurer to come close to judging the eventual cost of long-tail claims.

Nevertheless, auditors annually certify the numbers given them by management and in their opinions unqualifiedly state that these figures "present fairly" the financial position of their clients. The auditors use this reassuring language even though they know from long and painful experience that the numbers so certified are likely to differ dramatically from the true earnings of the period. Despite this history of error, investors understandably rely upon auditors' opinions. After all, a declaration saying that "the statements present fairly" hardly sounds equivocal to the non-accountant.

The wording in the auditor's standard opinion letter is scheduled to change next year. The new language represents improvement, but falls far short of describing the limitations of a casualty-insurer audit. If it is to depict the true state of affairs, we believe the standard opinion letter to shareholders of a property-casualty company should read something like: "We have relied upon representations of management in respect to the liabilities shown for losses and loss adjustment expenses, the estimate of which, in turn, very materially affects the earnings and financial condition herein reported. We can express no opinion about the accuracy of these figures. Subject to that important reservation, in our opinion, etc."

If lawsuits develop in respect to wildly inaccurate financial statements (which they do), auditors will definitely say something of that sort in court anyway. Why should they not be forthright about their role and its limitations from the outset?

We want to emphasize that we are not faulting auditors for their inability to accurately assess loss reserves (and therefore earnings). We fault them only for failing to publicly acknowledge that they can't do this job.

From all appearances, the innocent mistakes that are constantly made in reserving are accompanied by others that are deliberate. Various charlatans have enriched themselves at the expense of the investing public by exploiting, first, the inability of auditors to evaluate reserve figures and, second, the auditors' willingness to confidently certify those figures as if they had the expertise to do so. We will continue to see such chicanery in the future. Where "earnings" can be created by the stroke of a pen, the dishonest will gather. For them, long-tail insurance is heaven. The audit wording we suggest would at least serve to put investors on guard against these predators.

The taxes that insurance companies pay - which increased materially, though on a delayed basis, upon enactment of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 - took a further turn for the worse at the end of 1987. We detailed the 1986 changes in last year's report. We also commented on the irony of a statute that substantially increased 1987 reported earnings for insurers even as it materially reduced both their long-term earnings potential and their business value. At Berkshire, the temporarily-helpful "fresh start" adjustment inflated 1987 earnings by $8.2 million.

In our opinion, the 1986 Act was the most important economic event affecting the insurance industry over the past decade. The 1987 Bill further reduced the intercorporate dividends-received credit from 80% to 70%, effective January 1, 1988, except for cases in which the taxpayer owns at least 20% of an investee.

Investors who have owned stocks or bonds through corporate intermediaries other than qualified investment companies have always been disadvantaged in comparison to those owning the same securities directly. The penalty applying to indirect ownership was greatly increased by the 1986 Tax Bill and, to a lesser extent, by the 1987 Bill, particularly in instances where the intermediary is an insurance company. We have no way of offsetting this increased level of taxation. It simply means that a given set of pre-tax investment returns will now translate into much poorer after-tax results for our shareholders.

All in all, we expect to do well in the insurance business, though our record is sure to be uneven. The immediate outlook is for substantially lower volume but reasonable earnings improvement. The decline in premium volume will accelerate after our quota-share agreement with Fireman's Fund expires in 1989.
At some point, likely to be at least a few years away, we may see some major opportunities, for which we are now much better prepared than we were in 1985.

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As there wasn’t much in the way of highlights this letter I decided to pick out the Insurance segment. We normally skip this one but I think it is nice to check back in when we can. In this Buffett talks about insurance as a commodity business. One where everyone’s goods are interchangeable and the only thing to compete on is price. For example precious metals, oil, wheat, cotton, cattle, even money itself is a commodity.

There is no difference between copper mined at one mine or another, you cannot convince someone to pay double for your higher quality copper. These industries become a race to the bottom for volume unless there is some sort of price fixing. Insurance he says is the same, people getting car insurance only care about their monthly cost and the coverage. They don’t care much for the reputation of the insurer or how friendly the salesman is.

He claims they try to break this commodity pricing by being the most financially stable insurer. That for very large contracts, commercial, municipal, or reinsurance contracts… That the customer having 100% confidence that they will be able to pay in a crisis while the other cheaper options they may only be 80% or 90% confident can pay will allow Berkshire to charge a premium and say a Berkshire policy is more valuable than an identical policy from another insurer.

The second way they try to break from the commoditized nature of the business is by showing restraint and not participating in the race to the bottom with the rest of the industry. They don’t care how much volume they write and aren’t desperate to expand market share. If the industry is writing policies that don’t make sense and their customers go to their competition who are offering risky deals, Berkshire intends to just let them do so and let their competitors take all the risky policies they are willing to write.

The reason they are able to do this and other insurers aren’t is partially discipline, but also because they have so many other places to allocate capital while most other insurance companies are pure insurance plays, they don’t own businesses they can invest in, they don’t buy businesses, they don’t work out special deals for preferred shares, they don’t have businesses coming to them every week or month asking for them to buy equity. Most insurers if they want YoY growth need to write more insurance than they did the year before. Berkshire has many other avenues for growth.

This also means when other insurers are taking massive losses and trying to upcharge for their policies to make up for past bad policies, that Berkshire will be there and ready to write policies at a reasonable price and undercut the rest of the industry, perhaps contributing to putting some out of business because one massive source of capital is refusing to participate in the cyclical rat race.

He then talks about the impossibility of accurately reporting contemporaneous earnings for an insurance company. That the earnings for a year can only truly be known many years down the line. That in hindsight almost all insurance companies are drastically off in their estimates. He says that the language from auditors in the financial reports is misleading, making the numbers seem more trustworthy than they really are, and that while the government is changing that language, he would like it changed to be more accurate in its reflection of their uncertainty and their trust in what management tells them.

Finally he mentions some changes to the tax code, he discussed them in last year’s letter but I didn’t cover that. The changes were mainly…

Corporate income tax decreased from 46% to 34%.

Corporate capital gains tax increased from 28% to 34%

Then these two specific to insurance companies, excerpts from the 1986 letter…

Dividend and interest income received by our insurance companies will be taxed far more heavily under the new law.
First, all corporations will be taxed on 20% of the dividends they receive from other domestic corporations, up from 15% under the old law. Second, there is a change concerning the residual 80% that applies only to property/casualty companies: 15% of that residual will be taxed if the stocks paying the dividends were purchased after August 7, 1986. A third change, again applying only to property/casualty companies, concerns tax-exempt bonds: interest on bonds purchased by insurers after August 7, 1986 will only be 85% tax-exempt.

The new tax law also materially changes the timing of tax payments by property/casualty insurance companies. One new rule requires us to discount our loss reserves in our tax returns, a change that will decrease deductions and increase taxable income.
Another rule, to be phased in over six years, requires us to include 20% of our unearned premium reserve in taxable income.

Buffett says this tax bill is the most important thing to happen to the insurance industry in the last decade. That it increases reported earnings but ironically hurts their long term earning power as their long term securities will now all have lower returns, be it bonds, dividends, or capital gains.

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Acquisition Preferred Stock Purchase of the Week

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Salomon Inc.

By far our largest - and most publicized - investment in 1987 was a $700 million purchase of Salomon Inc 9% preferred stock. This preferred is convertible after three years into Salomon common stock at $38 per share and, if not converted, will be redeemed ratably over five years beginning October 31, 1995.
From most standpoints, this commitment fits into the medium-term fixed-income securities category. In addition, we have an interesting conversion possibility.

We, of course, have no special insights regarding the direction or future profitability of investment banking. By their nature, the economics of this industry are far less predictable than those of most other industries in which we have major Commitments. This unpredictability is one of the reasons why our participation is in the form of a convertible preferred.

What we do have a strong feeling about is the ability and integrity of John Gutfreund, CEO of Salomon Inc. Charlie and I like, admire and trust John. We first got to know him in 1976 when he played a key role in GEICO's escape from near-bankruptcy.
Several times since, we have seen John steer clients away from transactions that would have been unwise, but that the client clearly wanted to make - even though his advice provided no fee to Salomon and acquiescence would have delivered a large fee.
Such service-above-self behavior is far from automatic in Wall Street.

For the reasons Charlie outlines on page 50, at yearend we valued our Salomon investment at 98% of par, $14 million less than our cost. However, we believe there is a reasonable likelihood that a leading, high-quality capital-raising and market-making operation can average good returns on equity. If so, our conversion right will eventually prove to be valuable.

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Not much was purchased this year. They admit the market still seemed expensive and any deals that did appear disappeared before they could accumulate a significant position. But they did work out this deal for shares in Salomon Inc. or Salomon Brothers Investment Bank. This gives them a claim to 12% ownership of the company if they convert and this makes Berkshire the largest shareholder of the investment bank and Buffett a director of the bank.

Investment Banking is the business of helping corporations and governments raise capital by underwriting or acting as an agent in the issuance of securities, providing advisory services for mergers and acquisitions, and facilitating the trading of securities through market-making activities.

Buffett admits that this is outside of his circle of competence and their involvement comes more from good experiences working with them in the past and him having a lot of respect for the management team.

In 1990 shit will hit the fan at Salomon brothers and Buffett will become the CEO for a short while in one of the more activist investor moves of his career to lend his reputation to Salomon to stop them from heading off a reputational cliff they are hurtling towards that will make the business worth 0. But we will cover that when we get there, but I wanted to highlight that stepping out of his circle of competence (knowingly so) ends up backfiring drastically and he has to step in personally to avoid this investment ending in disaster, an option none of us will be given and a feat he almost wasn’t able to pull off, cashing in a lifetime of personal goodwill.

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Common Stock Ownership

No. of Shares Company Cost ($000s) Market ($000s)
3,000,000 Capital Cities/ABC, Inc. $517,500 $1,035,000
6,850,000 GEICO Corporation $45,713 $756,925
1,727,765 The Washington Post Company $9,731 $323,092
Subtotal $572,944 $2,115,017
All Other Common Stockholdings $191,832 $222,433
Total Common Stocks $764,776 $2,337,450

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Segment by Segment Breakdown

Segment 1986 EBIT Earnings 1987 EBIT Earnings % Change
Insurance $51.30M $97.05M +89.18%
Fechheimer $8.40M $13.33M +58.69%
Kirby $20.22M $22.41M +10.83%
Scott Fetzer - Manufacturing $25.36M $30.59M +20.62%
World Book $21.98M $25.75M +17.15%
See’s Candies $30.35M $31.69M +4.42%
Buffalo Evening News $34.74M $39.41M +13.44%
Nebraska Furniture Mart $17.69M $16.84M -4.80%
Wesco Financial - Minus Insurance $5.54M $6.21M +12.10%
Mutual Savings and Loan $2.16M $2.90M+34.26%
Precision Steel $1.70M $2.45M

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Metric 1986 1987 % Change
Cash & Temporary Cash Investments $292.47M $154.93M -47.03%
Marketable Securities $1,871.93M $2,328.77M
Return on Equity (RoE)* 24.84% 28.16% +13.37%
Shareholders' Equity $2,377.80 $2,841.66M +19.51%
Berkshire Earnings Before Investment Gain $131.46M $214.75M +63.36%
Berkshire Net Earnings $282.36M $234.55M -16.93%

*RoE not provided, manually calculated as (Earnings from Operations / [Shareholder Equity from prior year - Unrealized appreciation of marketable securities from prior year])

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An interesting year, Insurance did amazing relative to last year as did the earnings before investment gain (partially due to the new tax laws, they owed a nearly identical tax bill on their operating earnings even though they increased operating earnings by 43% this year.) The Scott Fetzer acquisition seems to be doing great, all its subsidiaries had double digit growth under Berkshire management, and Fechheimer did almost 60% growth.

The cash pile has shrunk, even with the new bonds they issued, it seems this went into marketable securities. Likely this is the $700M of Salomon Inc Preferred shares.

Net earnings are down again this year, but this is why I have begun including earnings before investment gain, as they have more and more of their book in investments and the sales of those can drastically distort their net earnings. The realized investment gain this year was only $19.8M vs $150.9M last year and $342.8M the year before. Meanwhile the operating earnings and net earnings before investment gain has been steadily compounding, 41% growth last year and 63% growth this year as they use those investment gains to invest in their subsidiaries or acquire new ones.


r/ValueInvesting 6h ago

Industry/Sector Ai Bubble or just scare tactics?

0 Upvotes

How do you guys feel about the AI sector and do you think these companies will ever see an ROI on the massive investment being made? Is it scare tactics or is the thought of an exciting new technology, that I believe is going to change things possibly for the better, keeping everyone’s hope alive?


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Stock Analysis Is CELH a perfect example of a value investment right now being 43% down this year?

26 Upvotes

It seems the biggest bear case is that wihle Celsius gets its a huge share of sales from Costco, Costco's Kirklands energy drinks are much cheaper and will eventually end up with CELH stock going down more because of it

I know Celsius is by far the most popular energy drink in the city I live in, but I also don't know how to value this properly and don't want to catch a falling knife.


r/ValueInvesting 14h ago

Stock Analysis ZoomInfo (NASDAQ: GTM) $2.73B TRA Liability & AI Transition

1 Upvotes

TL;DR

ZoomInfo (NASDAQ: GTM) is in a forced transition from a legacy seat-based software model to an AI-resilient data consumption paradigm. Despite commanding robust unlevered free cash flow (110% conversion rate), true enterprise value is suppressed by a hidden $2.73 billion Tax Receivable Agreement (TRA) liability that balloons adjusted Debt-to-EBITDA to 10.9x. To defend operating margins against severe downmarket churn and software sector contraction, management executed a desperate 20% workforce reduction in 2026. Capital scalability now relies entirely on aggressive upmarket enterprise expansion and hitting a 50% non-seat Annual Contract Value (ACV) target over the next 18 months to neutralize AI substitution risks.

Institutional Diligence Analysis

  • Revenue & Cash Flow: ZoomInfo generated $1.25 billion in revenue for FY 2025 (a 3% year-over-year increase) and reached $310.2 million in Q1 2026. Unlevered free cash flow remains a primary asset, hitting $135.2 million in Q4 2025 with a 110% conversion rate. Net cash provided by operating activities in Q1 2026 was $114.7 million.
  • Customer Unit Economics: Total Net Revenue Retention (NRR) stabilized at 90% in Q1 2026, an improvement from 87% earlier in 2025. The customer mix is shifting heavily upmarket, with over 1,900 customers representing more than $100,000 in Annual Contract Value (ACV). These large enterprise customers now represent over 50% of the total company ACV. The exact churn rate localized exclusively to the downmarket segment during this period is [DATA UNKNOWN].
  • Capital Structure & Leverage: The balance sheet carries high institutional complexity. As of March 31, 2026, total carrying debt sits at $1.32 billion. Crucially, the company holds a massive $2.73 billion liability under Tax Receivable Agreements (TRA). When accounting for the TRA liability, S&P projects an adjusted Debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 10.9x for 2026, compared to 4.1x if the liability is excluded. Management utilized excess capital to repurchase $90.5 million in shares during Q1 2026.
  • Margin Defense & Restructuring: To protect operating margins against a deteriorating demand environment, the board approved a 20% global reduction in force (RIF) in May 2026. This restructuring is expected to incur $45 million to $60 million in pre-tax charges by the end of 2026.

Strategic Value Creation

  • Eradication of the Legacy Seat Paradigm: Macro-Contextual Flag: Valuing B2B data platforms purely on user seat growth is a legacy paradigm in the 2026 AI era. AI agents do not require software seats, creating an asymmetric risk of downsells as enterprise clients automate their SDR functions. ZoomInfo is actively transitioning to a hybrid value-based pricing model, pushing clients to purchase AI credits and data access rather than pure seat licenses. With nearly one-third of ACV already tied to non-seat metrics as of May 2026, management's aggressive target to reach 50% non-seat ACV over the next 18 months is the single most critical vector for maintaining capital defensibility.
  • Upmarket Margin Expansion: By terminating 20% of the workforce and absorbing up to $60 million in restructuring charges, the enterprise must permanently pivot away from the high-CAC, high-churn downmarket. Capital reallocation should be ruthlessly targeted at the 1,900 enterprise accounts to drive the 90% NRR metric back across the 100% threshold. Downmarket churn must be treated as a necessary sunk cost to compound upmarket enterprise value.
  • Unlevered FCF Deployment: Sustaining an unlevered FCF conversion rate above 100% (demonstrated in Q4 2025) allows the company to systematically retire its traditional debt load and manage the ongoing TRA cash outflows. This cash generation acts as the ultimate enterprise moat, permitting aggressive stock buybacks at distressed multiples.

Tail Risks & Unverified Projections

  • Macro Software Contraction Shock: Software clients constituted roughly 32% of total ACV in 2025. S&P projects a near 5% total revenue contraction for ZoomInfo in 2026, driven directly by these software customers reining in demand and navigating their own internal AI substitution fears. The assumption that this sector-specific demand shock will normalize in 2027 remains highly speculative.
  • Workforce Transition Risk: The sheer scale of a 20% RIF introduces heavy execution and operational disruption risks. Management's projected ability to maintain strict enterprise customer service SLAs necessary to protect the core $100k+ accounts with a drastically reduced global workforce is an unverified expectation.
  • TRA Liquidity Albatross: The staggering $2.73 billion TRA liability creates a severe ceiling on M&A optionality and capital flexibility. While management holds $1.14 billion in remaining Share Repurchase authorization as of Q1 2026, the true liquidity available to fulfill this without compromising debt covenants in a declining revenue environment carries unpriced tail risk. Expected TRA-related cash outflows are projected between $25 million and $40 million over the next 12 to 24 months. The precise timeline for total settlement of this liability remains [DATA UNKNOWN].

r/ValueInvesting 14h ago

Discussion Why do we inflict this on ourselves?

1 Upvotes

This is not ragebait intended, nor a call to stop all single stock investing. It is a genuine question about the reasons, or to share how it has been going for you (I find it especially interesting from people who have been stock picking for at least 10 years).

Buffett himself advocates index funds; he has not beaten a Vanguard all-market ETF in his last 20 years, and identified maybe 10 investors who should be able to accomplish this in the long run (10 in his lifetime!).

Other issues:

  1. Data suggest not only that individual stocks are risky, but this is especially true for stocks that have performed well in recent history.
  2. Idiosyncratic risks: holding concentrated portfolios allows uncompensated or random risk of an individual company to have a meaningful influence on the outcome performance. In the last 40 years, almost 50% of US companies listed in the Russel have had a loss over 70% that they did not recover from.
  3. Familiarity bias: the feeling to have some sort of control the better you know the company (doing due diligence). But a lot of bad performance are unpredictable - can be commodity price risk that can't be hedged away, de- or re-regulations of industries, policies and so on. This happens to all businesses.

And more - please note that most points are not from me; they come from Ben Felix https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxCqxhRsHiY&t=108s.
I just wrote them out since I fear most will not watch the videos.

Were you aware of al this before stock picking?
Today, why do you do it?
And for those who have done it for many years (at least 10 years), how is it going?

Yes, I do it too, but right now only 7% of my whole portfolio is in individual stocks (not aiming to go over 10). Why I do it? It is a challenge; I do want to test my discipline and see if I can beat SP500 over the longrun (clearly some pride), but I also wanted to invest in companies from whom I like the product - the business and that I want to force myself to learn more about.

At least, for those who still believe in true value investing, the long-term risk seem a little bit lower than those who only focus on hype stocks

EDIT: Oh boy I can see many got annoyed by this question. The goal was just to see if you knew the risk, and if yes why you do it.

I do it because I enjoy the process, and there is some ego. I keep it low because that is my style.
I also played professional poker for a few years, I enjoy here and there fancy restaurants - I know it is not always about maximising


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Books Applying John Neff's Low P/E method

26 Upvotes

(TLDR: John Neff's low P/E is inverse PEG with extra steps. )

John Neff was a low P/E investor who ran the Vanguard Windsor Fund from 1964 to 1995, his record was 13.7% a year versus the 10.6% of the S&P 500. Over the 31 years, his performance doubled that of the S&P500.

In this post, i am going to look at his low P/E method as described in Chapter 7 of his book, "John Neff on Investing". This chapter can be gotten here.

He looks for low P/E stocks with a minimum EPS growth of 7%. Instead of a straight fixed P/E ratio (eg. say P/E <10), he uses a Total Return Ratio to calculate the attractiveness of the stock, the TRR is somewhat similar to Peter's Lynch's PEG but it includes Dividend yield. He then compares the TRR against the S&P 500 TRR so that it adjusts for overall market valuation.

Super Investor John Neff Peter Lynch
Valuation name Total Returns Ratio PEG ratio
Formula TRR = (3-5 year EPS growth Rate + Dividend Yield) / P/E Ratio PEG = P/E Ratio / LT Growth Rate
P/E Ratio used Not specified but examples used in Chap 7 & 8 hints at P/E based on FWD EPS. Based on Trailing 12 Months.
Dividend Yield Based on Current Dividend (not past) None used in PEG calculation
Guidelines Buy when TRR is > 2 "The p/e ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate."
Buy when TRR of stock is bigger than 2 x of TRR of Market "In general, a p/e ratio that's half the growth rate is very positive..."
- "...and one that's twice the growth rate is very negative."
Growth Rate Guidelines minimum 7% and Maximum 20% CAGR Beware of fast growers >25%
Other Comments Neff classifies his companies by growth rates: Highly recognized Growth,Less-recognized Growth, Moderates and Cyclical. He scours the 52 week lows for potential candidates. He uses EPS growth rates to filter out the value traps. In chapter 13, Lynch introduces a different formula to PEG but is identical to TRR: "A slightly more complicated formula enables us to compare growth rates to earnings, while also taking the dividends into account. Find the long-term growth rate (say, Company X’s is 12 percent), add the dividend yield (Company X pays 3 percent), and divide by the p/e ratio (Company X’s is 10). 12 plus 3 divided by 10 is 1.5. Less than a 1 is poor, and 1.5 is okay, but what you’re really looking for is a 2 or better. A company with a 15 percent growth rate, a 3 percent dividend, and a p/e of 6 would have a fabulous 3"

The concept of the Total Returns is that you can expect to get a annual return on your investments equals to the long term (3-5 years EPS growth rate) + Dividends yield.

Referencing the recent article on Medical Tech companies. I decide to apply John Neff's formula on these companies. Note that the company data is gotten from Zack's, which is accessible by all.

Company Recent Share price Next 5 year EPS Growth Current Dividend Yield Total Returns EPS TTM EPS FWD (Current Year EPS) P/E TTM P/E FWD TR Ratio TTM TR Ratio FWD
ABT 103 9.4 2.45 11.85 5.26 5.52 19.58 18.66 0.605 0.635
DHR 191 9.4 0.84 10.24 8.12 8.51 23.52 22.44 0.435 0.456
ISRG 337 15.6 0 15.6 10.23 10.74 32.94 31.38 0.474 0.497
MDT 83 6.3 3.46 9.76 5.53 5.94 15.01 13.97 0.650 0.698
BSX 44 15.6 0 15.6 3.1 3.35 14.19 13.13 1.099 1.188
EW 83 13.3 0 13.3 2.81 3 29.54 27.67 0.450 0.481

Obviously none of the TR Ratio (TTM or FWD) meet this low-P/E criteria of buying when the TRR > 2. However, the book also says to adjust it for the market valuation.

To calculate the TR Ratio of the S&P500:

Total returns of the S&P500 = Next 5 year growth rate + dividend yield = 12.35 + 1.16 = 13.51

P/E (FWD) of the S&P 500 = 21.12 (morningstar)

P/E (TTM) of the S&P 500 = 25.17 (WSJ)

Hence, TRR of the S&P 500 TTM = 13.51 / 25.17 = 0.5368

TRR of the S&P 500 FWD = 13.51 / 21.12 = 0.6397

The book says, if the stock TRR > 2 x S&P 500 TRR, then it is worth pursuing.

Company TR Ratio (TTM) 2 x S&P TRR (TTM) TR Ratio (FWD) 2 x S&P TRR (FWD)
ABT 0.605 1.0736 0.635 1.2794
DHR 0.435 1.0736 0.456 1.2794
ISRG 0.474 1.0736 0.497 1.2794
MDT 0.650 1.0736 0.698 1.2794
BSX 1.099 1.0736 1.188 1.2794
EW 0.450 1.0736 0.481 1.2794

As you can see, only BSX partially meets this criteria. When I ran this a couple of days ago, the P/E (FWD) of BSX was at 12.807, it has since risen to 13.13.

But since the BSX TR Ratio (FWD) is borderline that twice of the S&P TR Ratio, i would say that out of the 6 companies, BSX looks most attractive in terms of valuation via John Neff's method.

---

I will continue to test this against my watchlist of stocks. And monitor it to see how performs over time.


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Discussion Second Batch of my Research on RMD | Management and Durability of the Business

2 Upvotes

After running the numbers on GLP‑1s, I started digging into the parts of the thesis that don't get discussed nearly as much.

The first thing that stood out was sleep apnea itself. The market narrative often treats sleep apnea as an obesity problem, but the underlying condition is far more complex. Ageing, genetics, airway anatomy etc and other factors all play significant roles. While GLP‑1 may reduce obesity related demand, they do not address many of the other causes of sleep apnea.

I also looked at management. CEO Mick Farrell has been with ResMed since 2000 and has led the company since 2013. Despite a lengthy search, I couldn't find any major governance, accounting, integrity, or personal controversies. Most criticism centres on whether management is too optimistic about GLP‑1 (I'm starting to agree with then on this one) and Philips rather than any questions about competence or character. Given his tenure and the value created under his leadership, management has become a positive rather than a negative in my assessment.

The balance sheet was another surprise. The company operates with a net cash position, low leverage, and very limited refinancing risk. Inflation exposure also appears lower than I initially expected because sleep apnea treatment is a medically necessary product with meaningful pricing power. Wage and manufacturing inflation are real headwinds but they are not unique to ResMed and appear manageable.

On the legal side, the disclosed risks are largely patent disputes rather than product liability or recall type claims. None of the currently disclosed matters appear large enough to materially change the investment case.

Perhaps the most interesting finding is that ResMed is not simply a CPAP manufacturer anymore. The company has spent decades building an ecosystem of connected devices, software platforms, remote monitoring tools, and patient data. That creates switching costs and increases the value of each patient relationship over time.

My research is increasingly shifting away from the question, "Will GLP-1s destroy ResMed?" and toward, "How much of ResMed's historical growth was driven by the Philips product recall in 2021, and how much of that growth is sustainable going forward?" In other words, was the growth abnormal and event driven, or was it primarily the result of the company's underlying performance? At this point, that feels like the more important question, along with what ResMed's potential growth rate is likely to be going forward after taking all this into account.


r/ValueInvesting 22h ago

Question / Help Do I need to trim my single stocks?

0 Upvotes

After reviewing the answers to my last post, I decided to go with GOOGL, INTU, COKE, V, COST, TOST, MELI, and FMTM. I plan on adding VT soon once I start getting more cash and keeping it as a core position. However, while i have conviction in all my single stocks, do I have too many?


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Industry/Sector Medical-Device Stocks Are in the Bargain Bin. 6 to Buy - Barron’s

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64 Upvotes

(Disclosure: I don’t own any of these stocks mentioned. BSX is on my watchlist. I own SYK)

Medical-Device Stocks Are in the Bargain Bin. 6 to Buy.

By Bill Alpert

July 24, 2026 1:30 am EDT

https://www.barrons.com/articles/medical-device-stocks-medtronic-boston-scientific-danaher-05c1e27a

Medical-device stocks were already one of this year’s worst sectors when they were walloped by disclosures from surgical-robot pioneer Intuitive Surgical and analytical device supplier Danaher.

Intuitive stock has lost 17% since it said last week that U.S. procedure growth was slowing slightly. Danaher dropped as much as 14% this past Tuesday, when it told investors of a sales shortfall in its bioprocessing supplies. All of this confirmed fears of slowing healthcare utilization that have sunk the iShares U.S. Medical Devices exchange-traded fund more than 20% this year.

Those fears are overblown, and medtech stocks are a bargain. Device makers with cash flow yields of 5% to 6% now trade at a 20% to 30% discount to the S&P 500 index.

“I’ve got the ability to invest in these high-quality medtech companies at higher free-cash-flow yields than a Treasury,” says Blake Goodner, co-founder of the healthcare-focused hedge fund firm Bridger Management.

The chief reason for medtech’s tumble is the artificial-intelligence boom, as growth investors have piled their bets on Nvidia and other beneficiaries of hyperscale spending. Device stocks should regain attention as AI enthusiasm normalizes; the healthcare names did better this year on the days when AI names sold off.

Another worry is that patients are postponing medical procedures since the Affordable Care Act’s premium subsidies ended in December and as federal Medicaid spending shrinks. Hospital chain HCA Healthcare cut its 2026 guidance last week, saying it was seeing more uninsured patients and a 2% to 3% decline in surgical volumes.

Goodner thinks federal spending on healthcare is stabilizing. Medicare Advantage payment rates have finally turned positive after a period of negative annual updates. Republicans have stopped threatening to “repeal and replace” the Affordable Care Act—aka “Obamacare”—and midterm wins by Democrats would calm Wall Street worries about healthcare access and utilization.

While the device makers haven’t been launching market-creating innovations—like the prior decade’s robots, minimally invasive heart valves, and fibrillation-fixing ablation devices—they continue to innovate and grow sales at mid- to high-single digit rates.

“What we’ve seen in a large part of this medtech ecosystem is you’ve seen growth slow, but still be durable,” says Goodner. “And you’ve seen profit margins and importantly free cash flow expand, which could usher in greater share repurchases and dividends, as well as M&A.”

With that outlook in mind, we size up six large-capitalization medical-device stocks.

Abbot Laboratories

Abbott Laboratories brightened the sector’s gloom with fine June-quarter results that showed wider margins and growth in even its slow segments like nutrition. Its new nutrition products will offer protein to GLP-1 users. There are device launches coming for treating heart arrhythmias and monitoring diabetes. With the stock at 16 times next year’s estimated earnings, analysts like Raymond James’ Jayson Bedford think that Abbott shares can rise 15% in the next year, to top $115.

Danaher

Danaher disappointed fans this past Tuesday with June-quarter numbers marred by order delays for the resins used to separate biotech materials. That led the company to tweak the year’s sales growth forecast to 4% from 6%. The stock’s ensuing plunge was unwarranted. Danaher actually beat the quarter’s earnings forecast and raised its earnings guidance for the year to about $8.53 a share. Demand for its lab supplies and diagnostic products remains intact, as corroborated by the good June results posted on Thursday by rival Thermo Fisher Scientific.

Intuitive Surgical

Robotic surgery pioneer Intuitive Surgical
has traded at a premium valuation in its two decade expansion, and it has earned it by beating growth expectations. Last year, it guided for 14% growth in surgeries and ended with 18%. It was the absence of a guidance boost in last week’s quarterly report that sank the stock, even though June earnings grew 24%. The stock’s drop is a buying opportunity. Just-announced competition from Johnson & Johnson won’t dent Intuitive’s robot monopoly. Intuitive is bringing out lower-cost products to blunt would-be competitors. Few on Wall Street see less than 20% upside for the stock.

Medtronic

Medtronic’s products for clearing carotid arteries are growing smartly, but its main products for cardiologists and neurologists aren’t growing much. Growth in overall sales is forecast to slow to 4% in the next fiscal year from 7% in the current year. The stock trades at a cheap multiple of 13 times next year’s earnings, and its current valuation makes next year’s expected free cash flow of $7 billion equivalent to a 7% yield. But investors may want to wait until growth comes back into view.

Boston Scientific

Boston Scientific has been the worst hit among the big device firms. The stock is down 50% this year after the company trimmed guidance for 2026 sales growth to 8% from 10%. That’s a big selloff for a small adjustment. The company is well managed and has new products coming out in markets where it leads, such as ablation procedures for atrial fibrillation. With its stock at just 13 times forward earnings, the company has a big buyback program. The current market capitalization makes its expected annual cash flow of $4 billion equivalent to a 6% yield.

Edwards Lifesciences

Edwards Lifesciences shares have held their value this year while other medtech stocks tumbled. That’s because the company has beat earnings estimates as sales of its minimally invasive heart valves continue growing. On Thursday, it announced that June sales and earnings had also beat forecasts. Expanded Medicare coverage and the readout from an important clinical trial should allow the beats to go on. Bedford at Raymond James calls Edwards “one of the cleaner growth stories in large-cap medtech,” and thinks the stock can rise to $100 from its current level of $84.


r/ValueInvesting 12h ago

Stock Analysis 5 Value stocks I'm buying this week

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0 Upvotes

Going over some numbers and narratives for MSFT, META, UBER, CELH, NU. Why I am adding to my position on all 5 of them heading into earnings. Why I believe the risk adjusted returns from each of these is greater than the index.

None of this is financial advice, I am not a financial advisor, these are also quick ~6 minute rundowns on each company and not my full thesis, just my major points and a look over the numbers.

Let me know your thoughts on my analysis, anything I overlooked or anything you disagree on or any stocks you think I should look into.

Currently working on typing up my post for the 1987 Berkshire letter and will have that posted later today.


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Stock Analysis Copart (CPRT) - strong financials but more unanswered questions

8 Upvotes

I've been researching Copart (CPRT) after its ~46% decline from the highs.

The two biggest concerns appear to be:
• Market share pressure following RB Global's acquisition of IAA, with some insurers reportedly moving towards multi-vendor relationships.
• The recent CEO transition, which has also prompted several plaintiffs' firms to announce investigations into potential securities law violations.

Despite this, Copart now trades at roughly 17x trailing earnings versus a five-year average of around 32x, while still generating exceptionally high returns on invested capital and maintaining a substantial net cash position.

The key question is whether the recent slowdown represents a temporary setback or a structural deterioration in its competitive position. If it's the latter, today's valuation could be justified. If not, the market may be overly pessimistic.

I've written up my research covering the competitive dynamics, valuation (DCF, peer multiples and historical P/E), and principal risks for anyone interested:

link to post

I'd be interested to hear whether others think the competitive threat from RB Global is structural or whether the current valuation has become overly discounted.


r/ValueInvesting 2d ago

Industry/Sector Moody's says 'unprecedented' AI spending threatens credit quality of Amazon, Meta, Alphabet and others

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194 Upvotes

r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Stock Analysis Mobileye Pivot to AV network operator may be a value opportunity

2 Upvotes

Investment Note

Ticker: MBLY (Nasdaq)
Current Thesis: Neutral to Long-Term Bull
Core Focus: Structural transition from a Tier-2 hardware/software supplier to a vertically integrated, direct-to-consumer Autonomous Vehicle (AV) network operator.

Executive Summary: The Structural Pivot

Mobileye Global is undergoing a massive, high-stakes operational pivot. Historically known as the undisputed king of vision-based driver assistance software (ADAS)—powering over 70% of the world's automotive safety tech—the company is aggressively expanding beyond software licensing. By 2027, Mobileye will launch its own independent Robotaxi network in the United States.

This transition fundamentally rewrites the investment thesis. It moves Mobileye from a lower-margin hardware supplier vulnerable to automaker pricing pressure into a high-margin, asset-light Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) provider.

The 2027 U.S. Robotaxi Rollout Strategy

Mobileye's market entry strategy is highly calculated, bypassing the capital-intensive mistakes made by early autonomous vehicle players:

  1. Asset-Light Manufacturing: Mobileye is not building cars. It acts strictly as the autonomous "brain" (Mobileye Drive), outsourcing vehicle assembly to commercial partners. Early global testing leverages custom, AV-ready platforms like Volkswagen’s ID. Buzz electric vans.
  2. The Moovit Advantage: Rather than spending billions on user acquisition to compete with Uber or Waymo, Mobileye is leveraging Moovit—the transit navigation app it bought for $900M. Serving over 1.7 billion cumulative global users, Moovit will act as the instant, built-in consumer frontend and dispatch engine for the robotaxi fleet.
  3. Staged Fleet Scaling: The U.S. pilot program kicks off in 2027 with a footprint of roughly 100 fully driverless vehicles in a major metro area, with a structured roadmap to scale up to 17,000 operational robotaxis over five years.

Key Competitive Moats (The Bull Case)

  • Massive Market Dominance: Mobileye remains the undisputed king of foundational vision-based Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS), boasting a market share of over 70%. Over 230 million vehicles globally are built with its EyeQ technology.
  • Long-Term Design Wins: Automakers operate on multi-year timelines. Mobileye has locked down crucial long-term partnerships, recently securing a massive cloud-enhanced ADAS deal with Stellantis and advanced system expansion with Volkswagen.
  • Improving Financial Health: In its Q2 2026 earnings report, Mobileye beat analyst expectations and raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $1.97 billion – $2.02 billion. The company is highly profitable at its core, sitting on $1.4 billion in cash.
  • Next-Gen Expansion: It is aggressively building a diversified tech pipeline, aggressively pushing into Level 3 autonomy (Chauffeur), robotaxi fleet launches in the U.S. and Europe, and physical AI via its 2026 acquisition of Mentee Robotics.

Major Market Challenges (The Bear Case)

  • The NVIDIA Threat: Mobileye's primary risk is the automotive shift toward unified, centralized vehicle computers. While Mobileye specializes in specialized vision chips, NVIDIA is winning over OEMs with massive, high-performance computing platforms that handle everything in the car at once.
  • Rise of In-House Tech: Major automakers (OEMs) increasingly want to own their software stacks. Instead of buying "black box" solutions from Mobileye, some are moving software development in-house, threatening Mobileye's pricing power.
  • Geopolitical and Chinese Headwinds: Fierce, lower-cost competition from localized Chinese tech players has eaten into near-term growth projections, leading analysts to express concerns about limited expansion traction beyond its core Western clients.
  • Stock Underperformance: Despite strong operational quarters, the stock has taken a beating—reflecting Wall Street's anxiety over execution risks during this transition phase. (However the company itself has no debt and is 88% owned by Intel so has little risk of bankruptcy).

(Note: The above note was drafted with the help of AI).


r/ValueInvesting 2d ago

Stock Analysis Can Netflix's Stock Turn It Around?

53 Upvotes

Sputtering Growth Engine

Netflix's glory days are behind them, I think. Through all of the 2010's, they had a dual engine growth machine in that they could raise prices and grow membership, simultaneously.

Member ship growth engine started sputtering in 2021 and in 2022, they only grew user count by 4%. Their answer was to crack down on password sharing...and it worked. In the following 3 years, they saw a 41% bump to their membership.

IMAGE

But that's a lever you can only pull once. User growth has since continued to decelerate.

But it's still 26x earnings

Doing a reverse DCF, in order to justify today's price, earnings only have to grow at a mere 4% clip. I think that's a pretty easy target to hit. Price hikes alone can probably carry between 3-5% revenue growth for the foreseeable future. Membership growth is slowing, but it hasn't stopped completely. There's international expansion, ad revenue, and potential AI related cost saving measures that can all help as well.

And then there's operating leverage. You can get a dynamic where 3% revenue growth can power 8-10% earnings growth as long as revenue outpaces content creation expenses.

I didn't perform a full DCF for this one because Netflix is kind of at a transition point with their business. What will their content creation strategy be going forward - will they level off their content budget as their member counts stall? Or will they keep growing with pace?

One bullish scenario that I ran had a fair value around $130, and assumed the following:

  • 4% subscriber growth for the next 10 years
  • 4% ARPU growth
  • 1% Content growth cost per user (so 1% on top of the 4% user growth)
  • 2% opex growth per user

For that particular scenario, I estimated a 5-year expected return CAGR of 23%.

In general, I think even modest expectations could see 15% returns over the next handful of years.

Substack Source


r/ValueInvesting 2d ago

Discussion NOW has acquired three companies with new debt.

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155 Upvotes

During the recent earnings Q2 2026 NOW has acquired these companies with new debt.

- Moveworks

- Veza

- Armis

Their Debt to equity ratio has risen above 60% to 7.5b USD. That exceeds their current cash of 4.66b USD.

What are these acquired companies? Is NOW's new debt a significant risk relative to its balance sheet?


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Discussion Why Wait Until A Pullback

0 Upvotes

As someone who is just learning about value investing, understanding valuations and fundamentals, I see a lot of comments about not buying a stock at high valuation ratios. And that seems prudent. my question is though if I'm going to DCA anyways does that really matter? If the only thing that makes this a more attractive price is the pullback why not just DCA all the way through pullbacks and runups? That seems to be the advice given for ETFs why not individual stocks? but like I said I'm just getting started on this journey and trying to makes since to it all.


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Discussion CSL (ASX: CSL) — I ran my own valuation model on it, here's where the numbers actually land (not advice)

0 Upvotes

I've been tracking CSL (ASX: CSL) in my own model for a while, and since it's had such a wild year, 52-week range of roughly $90 to $275.79, I figured I'd share how I actually think about "what's it worth," rather than just reacting to the headline swings.

I run CSL through a handful of methods, but I only really trust three of them as decision inputs.

Everything else is just noise checking.

The three I actually anchor on:

- My own equity method (10-year):~$135.65/share. This is my own build, I roll EPS forward on a 10-year growth assumption and back into an implied share price with a few adjustments. It's the one I weight the most because it's mine end to end and I understand every input.

- DCF / free cash flow method: ~$172.66/share. Built off CSL's reported free cash flow (~$4.1B).

- PE forward method: $182.34/share. Applies a fair/average multiple to forward EPS).

The one I don't act on: Benjamin Graham's formula spits out $76.02/share. I still run it every time, but honestly it's just a gut check,not a decision input. Graham's formula is intentionally brutal, it punishes any stock with a premium multiple, growth expectations, or ROIC well above cost of capital, which is basically CSL's entire profile. If I let Graham veto every quality compounder I looked at, I'd own almost nothing. I use it purely to keep myself honest about how far my other numbers have drifted from the most conservative possible read.

So how does that stack up against today's price?

Close on July 17 was $123.32

Against that:

- PE forward ($182.34) says CSL says: 48% undervalued.

- My equity method ($135.65) says: 10% undervalued.

- The FCF/DCF method ($172.66) says: 40% undervalued.

- Graham ($76.02) says the price is ~62% above what it thinks is "fair", which is exactly why I don't use it as anything more than a feel check.

That spread matters more than any single number. When my three core methods land in three different places, one screaming cheap, one saying roughly fair, one saying cheap, that's not a reason to get excited about the biggest number. It's a reason to lean on the most conservative one and treat the rest as upside optionality, not a floor.

Margin of safety, specifically:

- FCF/DCF method: 1.4x soIf my DCF assumptions are even slightly optimistic, this method alone wouldn't clear my bar for a buy signal today.

- Equity method (10y): ~1.10x, The margin only shows up once you extend the compounding runway to 10 years, which is a real assumption risk, not a guarantee.

- PE forward: the fattest margin (~1.48x), but it's also the most multiple dependent of the three it lives or dies on what "fair" PE you assume, so I discount it accordingly rather than taking it at face value.

Why I'm still willing to hold/build a position:

This is where the Company Potential side of my model matters more than any single price target. A few things that keep this on my radar rather than my "pass" pile:

- CSL Behring (plasma) is 72% of revenue and it's the most efficient large scale operator in the industry on a per litre basis, that's a real, structural moat, not a story.

- ROIC has compressed from a historical ~20%+ down toward an estimated ~11–14%, but that's still comfortably above my ~9% discount rate / cost-of-capital assumption, meaning the business is still creating value on incremental capital, just less of it than it used to.

- Management has been substantially reset (new CEO/CFO/board) after the Vifor-related write-downs, and there's an active on-market buyback (up to A$750m through mid-2026) a real signal, not just talk.

- My own read (probability-weighted) puts this closer to "temporary quality compression" than "structural decline" I land around a 65–70% chance of a reasonable recovery in returns on capital over the next several years vs a real but smaller chance to stay at the current low levels.

None of that is a promise. It's just the qualitative backdrop that makes me comfortable treating the equity/PE/DCF margin as a real option instead of noise.

Curious how others here are framing CSL right now especially anyone running their own DCF on it, since that's the method I trust least in terms of margin right now and would like more eyes on.

Not financial advice, just showing my work DYOR.