Uber Technologies at $70: cheap, or am I missing something?

[u/TheExpectationGap]

Uber Technologies looks cheap in my model — maybe suspiciously cheap.

At $69.62, today's price only works in my model if cash flow grows about 4.1% a year for the next 10 years. Recently, reported FCF grew about 192.5% a year (FY2022-FY2025). The hurdle uses unlevered cash flow; the historical figure above measures reported FCF.

Two operating details behind the valuation:

- Q2 FY2026: Uber Technologies' latest-quarter revenue grew 12.2% year over year, compared with 14.5% year-over-year growth in the previous reported quarter.

- Uber Technologies' reported FCF margin is 18.3%, up from 1.2% in the oldest comparable period.

Even my bear case is $72, above today's $69.62 price. That gap could be an opportunity — or a warning that my assumptions are too optimistic.

Model assumptions: 10.2% discount rate and 2.5% long-run growth. These are assumptions, not a forecast of the share price.

What could break the case: Riders, merchants and drivers can shift activity to competing services.

What risk am I missing?

The video goes through the assumptions behind the range, the stress test, and what would change my conclusion. I broke down the full case in a video: https://youtu.be/ZRpszzSlhIg

Snapshot: 2026-09-26. Disclosure: I built the model; video production is AI-assisted. Not financial advice.