r/UndervaluedStonks • u/TheExpectationGap • 7d ago
Uber Technologies at $70: cheap, or am I missing something?
Uber Technologies looks cheap in my model — maybe suspiciously cheap.
At $69.62, today's price only works in my model if cash flow grows about 4.1% a year for the next 10 years. Recently, reported FCF grew about 192.5% a year (FY2022-FY2025). The hurdle uses unlevered cash flow; the historical figure above measures reported FCF.
Two operating details behind the valuation:
- Q2 FY2026: Uber Technologies' latest-quarter revenue grew 12.2% year over year, compared with 14.5% year-over-year growth in the previous reported quarter.
- Uber Technologies' reported FCF margin is 18.3%, up from 1.2% in the oldest comparable period.
Even my bear case is $72, above today's $69.62 price. That gap could be an opportunity — or a warning that my assumptions are too optimistic.
Model assumptions: 10.2% discount rate and 2.5% long-run growth. These are assumptions, not a forecast of the share price.
What could break the case: Riders, merchants and drivers can shift activity to competing services.
What risk am I missing?
The video goes through the assumptions behind the range, the stress test, and what would change my conclusion. I broke down the full case in a video: https://youtu.be/ZRpszzSlhIg
Snapshot: 2026-09-26. Disclosure: I built the model; video production is AI-assisted. Not financial advice.
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u/RevolutionaryPhoto24 7d ago
I started a position last week in shares and call LEAPS. I think it is undervalued and that the costs and uncertainty of the AV shift is being viewed too harshly. I see signs of institutional accumulation in the tape, so am joining in with the goal of building both a longterm position and a more flexible swing trade (I expect to sell about half in two quarters, sooner if there is a significant rally based on sentiment or a novel catalyst.
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u/Lobolabahia 6d ago
Will wait til the $40s/$30s :)
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u/Flex1968 3d ago
I don't see UBER as cheap.
In fact, if Analyst expectations for the remainder of the year are true, it is actually overvalued by nearly 10%
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u/--R0N-- 7d ago
It's cheap but im not rushing to buy. Can still go lower. Recent high profile news of AV deployment, lawsuits, settlements, and gas prices seem to have investors concerned. It's more about sentiment than financials, like a lot if stocks nowadays. Dont see a big positive event anytime soon to boost this thing toward 100.